【导读】沪指时隔 10 年重回 4100 点，多家基金公司研判后市 中国基金报记者 曹雯璟 2026 年首个交易周， A 股迎来 " 开门红 " ！ 今日（ 1 月 9 日），市场震荡拉升，上证指数时隔 10 年重新站上 4100 点，深证成指涨超 1% 。两市成交额突破 3 万亿元，全市场超 3900 只个股上涨，连续 2 日超百股涨停。板块 方面，仅银行、非银金融下跌，传媒、综合、国防军工等涨幅靠前。 多位业内人士认为，开年来， 市场表现强劲，主要受到资金面、政策面与产业趋势三重积极 因素的共同驱动。 展望后市， 市场内在的上升趋势较为明确，行情有望在震荡中延续，投资 上应紧密关注政策发力与产业景气方向。 多重利好叠加 沪指时隔 10 年重回 4100 点 兴业基金研判认为，市场或呈现震荡分化态势。 1 月日历效应，叠加年报预告期盈利分化， 高估值核心资产或面临业绩兑现压力；与此同时，保险、理财等资金年初增配 A 股带来流动 性安全垫，且当前市场拥挤度短期有望缓解，提供了支撑市场的逻辑。因此， 整体判断市场 无系统性下跌风险，或呈现 " 震荡 + 结构分化 " 格局。 刘翀指出，在政策发力预期强化、流动性 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2026-01-09 政策预期反复，多晶硅领跌新能源金属 新能源观点：政策预期反复，多晶硅领跌新能源⾦属 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需供需延续偏紧格局，江西某云母矿复产预期延 后且尼日利亚锂矿政策有望调整，委内瑞拉局势动荡，供应扰动担忧 持续；工业硅和多晶硅供需趋松，多晶硅收储平台成立，但反垄断担 忧让供应收缩预期淡化。中短期来看，政策预期反复，新能源金属走 势有所分化，硅料大幅杀跌，关注现货端支撑。长期来看，硅供应端 收缩预期较强，尤其多晶硅，价格重心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处于上 升阶段，但需求预期也在不断拔高，供需过剩量预期在收窄，碳酸锂 长期供需走向需要重新审视，年度供需拐点可能提前出现。 ⼯业硅观点：市场情绪有所降温，硅价⼤幅回落。 多晶硅观点：政策预期反复，多晶硅价格延续⾼波动。 碳酸锂观点：市场情绪转弱，锂价⾼位震荡。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 杨飞 从业资格号F ...

今日金属市场呈现典型的结构性分化行情。新能源金属在强劲需求与政策预期驱动下表现强势，而贵金 属则受宏观因素压制小幅回调。市场"冰火交织"的格局，生动演绎了产业景气、宏观政策与短期资金流 动间的复杂博弈。 一、 新能源金属"燃"中藏变：需求强劲，高位震荡 新能源金属板块无疑是今日市场的主角。此前沪镍、沪锡主力合约大幅上涨，镁金属相关企业股价也表 现亮眼。核心驱动力清晰：全球新能源汽车产业的持续高景气，对上游金属形成刚性需求支撑；"双 碳"目标下的政策导向，则为产业链提供了长期增长动能。然而，市场并非单边上涨。日内，镍价在隔 夜大涨后出现显著回落。这主要受到两方面因素影响：一是彭博商品指数年度权重再平衡引发的、规模 达数十亿美元级别的技术性抛售，属于短期流动性冲击；二是前期快速上涨后，市场部分获利了结的压 力自然释放。这揭示了即便在长期景气赛道中，短期价格也易受资金流动、事件驱动及获利盘行为影 响。市场正聚焦于即将公布的非农就业数据与美联储会议纪要，以寻求宏观方向的进一步指引。 二、 贵金属"静水流深"：宏观承压，调控护航 与新能源金属的活跃形成对比，贵金属板块今日表现相对平淡，黄金、白银价格小幅收跌。回调主因在 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2026-01-06 供应担忧继续，碳酸锂领涨新能源金属 新能源观点：供应担忧继续，碳酸锂领涨新能源⾦属 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 杨飞 从业资格号F03108013 投资咨询号Z0021455 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需供需延续偏紧格局，江西某云母矿复产预期延 后且尼日利亚锂矿政策有望调整，委内瑞拉局势动荡，供应扰动担忧 持续；工业硅和多晶硅供需趋松，但多晶硅收储平台成立，供应端收 缩预期仍在。中短期来看，供应扰动担忧持续，新能源金属或维持震 荡偏强走势。长期来看，硅供应端收缩预期较强，尤其多晶硅，价格 重心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，但需求预期也在不断拔 高，供需过剩量预期在收窄，碳酸锂长期供需走向需要重新审视，年 度供需拐点可能提前出现。 ⼯业硅观点：供需驱动弱，硅价随情绪波动。 多晶硅观点：强预期VS弱现实，多晶硅价格延续⾼波动。 碳酸锂观点：市场情绪偏强叠加供应担忧，锂价开年⼤涨。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - Precious metals are recommended for strong holding due to expected market volatility and political events that may drive demand for safe-haven assets [4] - Copper prices are expected to rise, with a recommendation to buy on dips due to anticipated supply tightness in 2026 [5] - Aluminum is also recommended for buying on dips, supported by government policies aimed at stimulating demand [5] - Cobalt prices have shown a solid upward trend, with strong support expected due to supply constraints [6] - Lithium prices have surged, and it is advised to buy on dips as demand remains stable [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 8408.59, with a weekly high of 8408.59 and a low of 4295.55 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals saw price increases: Copper up 3.00%, Aluminum up 1.37%, Zinc up 1.28%, Lead up 0.30%, while Tin decreased by 4.75% [19] - Precious metals experienced declines: Gold down 3.85%, Silver down 1.25%, Palladium down 8.79%, and Platinum down 26.92% [19] - New energy metals saw significant increases: Nickel up 7.15%, Cobalt up 12.41%, and Lithium up 16.75% [20] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventory changes included an increase of 38,474 tons in copper, a decrease of 4,067 tons in aluminum, and various changes in other metals [30][32]

有色金属 2026 年 01 月 03 日 行 业 研 究 有色金属 20260103 周报：贵金属价格冲高回落，碳酸锂去 库放缓价格高位震荡 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 贵金属：提保抑制投机需求，贵金属价格冲高回落。本周黄金价格上 涨受限，这一现象并非孤立，而是受到了美元走强和美国国债收益率上升 的双重压制。此外，芝商所在12月30日的公告中表示，黄金、白银、铂金 和钯金合约的保证金将在周三收盘后上调，这是芝商所一周内第二次上调 贵金属期货保证金，也是该交易所本月第三次上调白银期货保证金。保证 金连续上调通常被视为市场过热的降温信号，有助于抑制投机情绪。宏观 经济数据走弱叠加地缘博弈升级，进一步提升黄金避险属性和配置价值。 个股：黄金关注招金灵宝万国紫金黄金，A股关注紫金、中金、赤峰及西金 等；H股关注潼关、山金、招矿及集海等。银铂钯均为黄金的贝塔，个股关 注盛达、湖银、豫光、贵研及浩通等。 工业金属：以旧换新补贴延续，铜价后续仍有上涨空间。铜，联储纪 要显示多数联储官员支持加息，但分歧加大，市场仍预期2026年降息两次。 发改委发布2026年优化实施两新政策方案，继续实施汽车和消费品以旧换 新，符 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-12-30 新能源观点：节前资⾦获利了结，新能源⾦属巨震 节前资金获利了结，新能源金属巨震 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需供需延续偏紧格局，江西某云母矿复产预期延 后且尼日利亚锂矿政策有望调整，供应扰动风险增加；工业硅和多晶 硅供需趋松，但多晶硅收储平台成立，供应端收缩预期升温。中短期 来看，节前资金获利了结，碳酸锂等新能源金属巨震，但供应扰动担 忧支撑逻辑未有变化，可待碳酸锂止跌后继续关注低吸做多机会。长 期来看，硅供应端收缩预期较强，尤其多晶硅，价格重心可能抬升； 锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，但需求预期也在不断拔高，供需过剩量预 期在收窄，碳酸锂长期供需走向需要重新审视，年度供需拐点可能提 前出现。 ⼯业硅观点：供需驱动弱，硅价震荡运⾏。 多晶硅观点：强预期VS弱现实，多晶硅价格延续⾼波动。 碳酸锂观点：节前情绪⾛弱多头离场，碳酸锂盘中跌停。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z001666 ...

行 业 定 期 报 告 贵金属：地缘风险叠加降息预期推升避险需求，黄金价格再创历史新 高。本周周初低于市场预期的通胀数据刺激美联储降息预期，推动美债收 益率下滑，为金银价格提供了上涨动力。随着美国与委内瑞拉的剑拔弩张、 伊朗与以色列的潜在冲突、俄乌冲突的持续，以及美元疲软和美联储降息 预期等多重因素的合力，金银价格再创历史新高。宏观经济数据走弱叠加 地缘博弈升级，进一步提升黄金避险属性和配置价值。个股：黄金关注招 金灵宝万国紫金黄金，A股关注紫金、中金、赤峰及西金等；H股关注潼关、 山金、招矿及集海等。银铂钯均为黄金的贝塔，个股关注盛达、湖银、豫 光、贵研及浩通等。 工业金属：美方降息关税刺激市场，铜价背离需求逆势上行。铜，本 周期铜重心未受现货市场疲软影响，价格重心再度上移。11月美国消费者 价格指数同比上涨2.7%，进一步增强了市场对美联储降息的乐观预期。后 续美国将密集发布一系列重要数据，叠加圣诞周市场缺乏更多宏观指引， 当期更多业者认为价格或将进入盘整阶段。铝，供应端本周新疆地区电解 铝企业继续释放新产能，行业理论开工产能较上周继续小幅增加；成本端 中国国产氧化铝价格延续下行走势；中长期看，国内天花板 ...

2025年，全球金属市场迎来"载入史册"的一年：黄金、白银、铜自1980年以来首次同创历史新高，A股 有色板块以超70%涨幅领跑；白银年内翻倍、钴价飙涨130%、镓价掌控全球定价权……这场贯穿全年 的涨价潮，不是短期炒作，而是"供需矛盾+政策调控+产业升级"三重力量共振的结果——金属行业正 从"周期波动"迈入"新质生产力驱动的价值重估周期"，一场由供需重构引发的超级周期，已然开启。 一、贵金属：黄金破4500美元，白银翻倍成"黑马" 2025年贵金属市场堪称"疯狂"，四大品种集体站上历史巅峰，核心逻辑是"避险+工业"双轮驱动： 黄金：4400美元"压舱石"：国际金价一度突破4500美元/盎司，年内涨幅超60%，50次刷新纪录。背后 是"全球不确定性+央行增持"的双重支撑——地缘冲突、美元信用弱化催生避险需求，各国央行持续购 金（2025年全球央行净购金超1000吨），黄金的"货币属性"与"战略储备价值"被重新定义。 白银：翻倍"黑马"：年内涨幅超100%，光伏银浆是核心引擎——全球光伏装机量爆发，1GW组件需银 约10吨，2025年光伏用银量同比增50%，工业需求直接"点燃"银价；同时，黄金上涨的"估值联动" ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Report's Core View - Supply disruption concerns are intensifying, and new energy metals remain strong. In the short - to - medium term, polysilicon and lithium carbonate will alternately lead the rise of new energy metals. In the long - term, the supply of silicon is expected to shrink, especially for polysilicon, with a possible increase in the price level. The lithium ore production capacity is still rising, but demand expectations are also growing, and the expected surplus in supply - demand is narrowing. The annual supply - demand inflection point for lithium carbonate may occur earlier. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情观点 Industrial Silicon - **View**: Supply - demand remains weak, and silicon prices show an oscillatory trend. The medium - term outlook is "oscillatory". [6] - **Information Analysis**: As of December 22, the spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated slightly. The latest domestic inventory decreased by 0.5% month - on - month. As of November 2025, the monthly output of domestic industrial silicon decreased by 11.2% month - on - month and 0.7% year - on - year. In November, industrial silicon exports increased by 21.8% month - on - month and 3.7% year - on - year. In October 2025, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity increased by 30.43% month - on - month but decreased by 38.3% year - on - year. [6] - **Main Logic**: In terms of the fundamentals, the production of industrial silicon decreased in December. The demand from polysilicon, organic silicon was weak, and the demand boost from aluminum alloy was limited. Although the industry inventory decreased recently, there is still some pressure. Overall, the supply pressure was relieved to some extent, but the downstream demand weakened simultaneously, and the inventory continued to accumulate in December, with the fundamentals remaining weak. [6] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of industrial silicon are weak, but the coal price has recovered, and market sentiment fluctuates. It is believed that the price of industrial silicon will show an oscillatory trend. [7] Polysilicon - **View**: The expectation of state - reserve purchase is still fermenting, and polysilicon prices continue to be highly volatile. The medium - term outlook is "oscillatory and slightly bullish". [7] - **Information Analysis**: As of the week of December 22, the average transaction price of N - type re - feedstock was stable week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the GZFE remained unchanged. In November, China's polysilicon exports decreased by 18% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 62% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the newly installed domestic photovoltaic capacity increased by 39.5% year - on - year. A polysilicon platform company was registered on December 9, 2025, with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan. The GZFE added new registered brands and adjusted the minimum order quantity for some polysilicon futures contracts. [7][8] - **Main Logic**: With the establishment of the polysilicon platform company, the expectation of state - reserve purchase has heated up again, and prices continue to be highly volatile. In the supply side, production in the southwest region decreased during the dry season, and the impact of anti - involution policies on supply needs to be monitored. In the demand side, the photovoltaic installation growth rate in the first five months was high but overdrew the demand in the second half of the year. The demand for polysilicon has gradually weakened since November. Although the fundamentals are weak, the anti - involution policy expectation provides strong price support at the bottom. [10] - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy significantly boosts polysilicon prices. With the establishment of the platform company, market sentiment has improved, and the price of polysilicon may show an oscillatory and slightly bullish trend in the short term. [11] Lithium Carbonate - **View**: Demand remains strong, and lithium prices continue to rise. The medium - term outlook is "oscillatory and slightly bullish". [11] - **Information Analysis**: On December 22, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 2.68%, and the total open interest increased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased, as did the average price of spodumene concentrate index. The number of warehouse receipts increased. The GZFE made adjustments to lithium carbonate futures delivery warehouses, and the total warehouse capacity increased by 7,000 tons. [11][12] - **Main Logic**: Currently, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the long - term demand expectation is also strong. Market trading focuses on the resumption time of Jiaxiawo Mine and the off - season demand. The resumption expectation has been postponed, which is a major positive factor. There are differences in the market's expectation of January demand, and the social inventory decline has slowed down. In the short term, there are few negative factors, and the market sentiment is optimistic. However, attention should be paid to the possible emotional fluctuations caused by the increase in warehouse capacity. [12] - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to be mainly oscillatory and slightly bullish. [12] 2.行情监测 - Not provided with specific content in the text. 3.中信期货商品指数 - **Comprehensive Index**: - The commodity 20 index was 2,634.42, up 1.34%. - The industrial product index was 2,226.50, up 0.79%. - The PPI commodity index was 1,379.81, up 0.63%. [54] - **New Energy Commodity Index**: On December 22, 2025, the index was 493.12, with a daily increase of 0.25%, a 5 - day increase of 6.64%, a 1 - month increase of 13.17%, and a year - to - date increase of 19.57%. [55]