投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-08-26 供应扰动反复叠加资金博弈，新能源金属高 位宽幅震荡 新能源观点：供应扰动反复叠加资⾦博弈，新能源⾦属⾼位宽幅震荡 交易逻辑：市场对采矿合规问题担忧持续，其余青海和江西的锂矿生 产企业同样面临采矿许可证到期的潜在停产风险，不过，江特电机复 产对供应端收缩预期构成扰动；而需求正逐步进入季节性旺季，但美 国国土安全部新增锂产品制裁，需求端预期受到负面扰动，整体上来 看，尽管供需预期短期负面冲击驱动碳酸锂价格大幅下跌，但接下来 供需将大概率进入阶段性偏紧状态，这对锂价有支撑，而硅面临现实 供需趋松的风险，硅价进一步上行高度将受限。中短期来看，成本抬 升，这对新能源金属价格有支撑，供应预期反复和资金博弈放大了价 格波动，新能源金属价格宽幅波动。长期来看，硅供应端收缩预期较 强，尤其多晶硅，价格中心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升阶段， 碳酸锂供应高增将限制锂价上方高度。 ⼯业硅观点：市场情绪反复，硅价震荡运⾏ 多晶硅观点：市场情绪反复，多晶硅价格宽幅波动 碳酸锂观点：多空博弈延续，价格震荡运⾏ ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内 ...

证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2025-08-25 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 5984.59 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5984.59 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3700.9 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-08 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 2025-08 -6% 0% 6% 12% 18% 24% 30% 36% 42% 48% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340525070002 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《关注稀土磁材投资机会》 - 2025.08.18 有色金属行业报告 （2025.08.18-2 ...

有色金属 2025 年 08 月 25 日 行 业 研 究 有色金属 20250825 周报：9 月美联储降息概率升超 9 成， 黄金有望迎来新一轮上涨周期 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 贵金属：9月美联储降息概率升超9成，黄金有望迎来新一轮上涨周期。 当地时间8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上表示， 当前形势暗示就业增长面临下行风险，风险平衡点的变化可能要求调整政 策。鲍威尔称，美联储对降息持开放态度。根据CME FedWatch工具，市场 目前预期美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为8.9%，降息25个基点的概率从 75%提升至91.1%。从短期而言，鲍威尔超预期的鸽派发言打破了市场对美 联储降息路径不确定性和独立性缺乏的担忧，同时9月美联储降息将打开黄 金向上的突破空间，黄金即将迎来新一轮上涨周期。个股：白马关注招金 黄金、山金H、紫金、赤峰、山金国际、中金及招金；黑马关注西金、晓程 及万国等。白银及铂金加速补涨，关注浩通。 工业金属：降息预期提振及季节性旺季将临，关注社库去库节奏。铜， 美联储降息预期提振，金九银十旺季有望使得铜价迎来新的一轮上涨；中 长期，随美联储降息加深提振投资 ...

有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 如何理解当前稀土板块的行情 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 34 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 国内宏观经济增速放缓；关税等因素影响出口需求与产业链稳定性；原材料价格波动 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 08 月 24 日 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | | 重视有色新材料在 AI 硬件的加速应用：— | 2025-08-17 | | --- | --- | | —有色钢铁行业周思考（2025 年第 33 | | | 周） | | | 电解铝：盈利拉久期，周期转红利：—— | 2025-08-15 | | 铝行业深度报告 | | | 大阅兵催化限产政策落地，行业供给侧变 | 2025-08-12 | | 化或将临近 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 看 ...

新能源观点：供应扰动⻛险仍存，新能源⾦属⾼位宽幅震荡 交易逻辑：市场对采矿合规问题担忧持续，其余青海和江西的锂矿生 产企业同样面临采矿许可证到期的潜在停产风险，不过，江特电机复 产对供应端收缩预期构成扰动；而需求正逐步进入季节性旺季，但美 国国土安全部新增锂产品制裁，需求端预期受到负面扰动，整体上来 看，尽管供需预期短期负面冲击驱动碳酸锂价格大幅下跌，但接下来 供需将大概率进入阶段性偏紧状态，这对锂价有支撑。中短期来看， 供应端收缩预期和成本抬升预期强化，这对新能源金属价格有支撑， 锂供应扰动有望中短期继续推高锂价，需继续谨防锂价上极端风险， 对锂价维持偏多思路为宜，但投资者也需要防范价格波动风险；而工 业硅和多晶硅现实供需端面临产能产量高位，供需趋弱，硅价进一步 涨势放缓，硅价整体呈现偏震荡走势，密切留意产业链动向。长期来 看，若供应端无实质性收缩或者需求端无明显好转，硅价存在回落压 力；锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，碳酸锂供应高增将限制锂价上方高 ⼯业硅观点：市场情绪反复，硅价震荡运⾏。 多晶硅观点：市场情绪反复，多晶硅价格宽幅波动。 碳酸锂观点：多空博弈延续，价格震荡运⾏。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Oscillating [5] - Polysilicon: Oscillating [6] - Lithium carbonate: Oscillating and bullish [10] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply disruption risks still exist, and new energy metals as a whole continue to be strong. Lithium supply disruptions are expected to push up lithium prices in the short and medium term, and a bullish view on lithium prices is advisable. Silicon prices are showing an oscillating trend, and there is a risk of decline in the long term [1]. - For industrial silicon, coal prices are fluctuating, leading to continuous volatility in silicon prices. For polysilicon, market sentiment is fluctuating, resulting in wide - range price volatility. For lithium carbonate, the battle between bulls and bears continues, and the price is oscillating and correcting [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views Industrial Silicon - **Information Analysis**: As of August 19, the spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated. The latest domestic inventory decreased by 0.02% month - on - month. In July 2025, the monthly output increased by 3.2% month - on - month and decreased by 30.6% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative output decreased by 20.0% year - on - year. In June, exports increased by 22.8% month - on - month and 11.6% year - on - year. From January to June, cumulative exports decreased by 6.6% year - on - year. In June, domestic photovoltaic new installations decreased by 38.45% year - on - year, and from January to June, cumulative installations increased by 107.07% year - on - year [5]. - **Main Logic**: The supply of industrial silicon continues to rise. In August, the supply pressure may continue to increase. Demand shows some improvement signs, but the inventory is expected to accumulate further [5]. - **Outlook**: Silicon prices will continue to oscillate in the short term, and the resumption of production by large factories will be the key [5]. Polysilicon - **Information Analysis**: The成交 price of N - type re - feedstock ranges from 45,000 to 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 47,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.42%. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts increased. In June, exports increased by 5.96% month - on - month and decreased by 39.67% year - on - year. From January to June, cumulative exports decreased by 7.23% year - on - year. In June, imports increased by 40.3% month - on - month. From January to June, cumulative imports decreased by 47.59% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, domestic photovoltaic new installations increased by 107% year - on - year [6]. - **Main Logic**: Macro factors and coal price fluctuations lead to wide - range price oscillations. Supply is expected to increase in August, and demand may weaken in the future [6][8]. - **Outlook**: Anti - cut - throat competition policies have a significant impact on prices, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Information Analysis**: On August 19, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 1.9%, and the total position decreased by 16,876 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,100 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also increased by 1,100 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate was 1,045 US dollars/ton. The warehouse receipts increased by 60 tons [9]. - **Main Logic**: The supply shortage caused by mine shutdowns will gradually emerge, but high prices may stimulate supply. The current domestic supply and demand are generally balanced [10]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand gap caused by shutdowns is expected to keep prices oscillating and bullish [10]. 2. Market Monitoring - The report only lists the headings for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate under market monitoring but does not provide specific content [11][17][28]. 3. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: On August 19, 2025, the commodity index was 2,223.20, a decrease of 0.36%; the commodity 20 index was 2,469.40, a decrease of 0.26%; the industrial products index was 2,256.94, a decrease of 0.47% [50]. - **New Energy Commodity Index**: On August 19, 2025, the index was 430.14, with a daily decrease of 0.80%, a 5 - day increase of 1.93%, a 1 - month increase of 7.23%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.30% [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In July, the global economic data still showed resilience, but there were still pressures in domestic monthly economic data. The A-share market was strong on August 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a near 10-year high, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index breaking through last year's highs. The bond market tumbled, and commodities were divided. Attention should be paid to the impact of "reciprocal tariffs" and the progress of "anti-involution" [1]. - The current tariffs are still in a "stagnant" stage, which will bring certain drag to commodities greatly affected by external demand. After the July interest rate meeting, Powell did not give guidance on a September rate cut, emphasizing the uncertainty of tariffs and inflation [2]. - For commodities, the black and new energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the domestic supply side, the energy and non-ferrous sectors benefit significantly from overseas inflation expectations, and the "anti-involution" space of some chemical products is also worthy of attention. The short - term fluctuation space of agricultural products is relatively limited [3]. - For strategies, it is recommended to allocate more industrial products on dips in commodities and stock index futures [4]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - In July, China's official manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3, non - manufacturing remained in expansion, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year in US dollars, monetary supply exceeded expectations, but financing and loan data were still weak, and investment data had obvious pressure. In the US, the July non - farm payrolls data was below expectations, but the service PMI improved significantly, and the "Great Beauty" bill might support subsequent consumption. On August 18, the A - share market was strong, with the total market turnover exceeding 2.8 trillion yuan, the third - highest in history. Market hotspots focused on AI hardware stocks, brokers, and fintech, while the bond market tumbled and commodities were divided [1]. Tariff Impact - On July 31, the White House re - set "reciprocal tariff" rates. From August 12, 2025, the implementation of a 24% tariff was suspended for 90 days until November 10. On August 15, the Trump administration expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports and might announce a semiconductor tariff of up to 300% within two weeks. Current tariffs are in a "stagnant" stage, dragging down some commodities [2]. Commodity Analysis - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the non - ferrous sector's supply constraints have not been alleviated. The medium - term supply of the energy sector is considered to be relatively loose, with OPEC+ accelerating production and increasing production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. The "anti - involution" space of some chemical products is worthy of attention, and the short - term fluctuation of agricultural products is relatively limited. Since the "anti - involution" market started in July, major varieties have retreated to varying degrees [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate more industrial products on dips [4]. To - do News - On August 18, the market was strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a near 10 - year high, over 4000 stocks rising, and the trading volume reaching 2.81 trillion yuan. Trump will meet with Zelensky and European leaders on the 18th. The European Council President emphasized the importance of trans - Atlantic unity, and the EU will introduce the 19th round of sanctions against Russia in early September [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous and steel industries [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of new non-ferrous materials in accelerating applications in AI hardware, highlighting that the market has not fully priced in the use of non-ferrous metals in AI [12][13]. - The demand for liquid cooling technology is expected to grow significantly due to the limitations of air cooling systems, with copper and aluminum being key materials for heat transfer [13]. - The report forecasts a substantial increase in the market for metal soft magnetic materials driven by the explosive growth in AI computing power, with AI server shipments projected to rise significantly [14]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The report highlights the increasing demand for liquid cooling solutions in AI hardware, with copper and aluminum being essential materials due to their thermal conductivity [13]. - It notes that the next generation of AI computing cards will adopt full liquid cooling solutions, further driving demand for these metals [13]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in companies like Huafeng Aluminum (601702) and Platinum New Materials (300811) due to their strategic positioning in the market [13][14]. Steel Industry - The report discusses the short-term fluctuations in steel profitability under the "anti-involution" policy, with expectations for stabilization and recovery in the medium term [15]. - It notes a decrease in rebar consumption, with a reported 190 million tons consumed this week, reflecting a 9.89% week-on-week decline [15][20]. - The report indicates that steel prices are expected to rise in the future, supported by the "anti-involution" policy [32]. New Energy Metals - The report states that lithium production in July 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 28.33%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [39]. - It highlights the high growth in the production and sales of new energy vehicles, with a 24.11% year-on-year increase in production in June 2025 [43]. - The report mentions rising prices for lithium, cobalt, and nickel, with lithium carbonate prices reaching 83,000 yuan per ton, reflecting an 18.57% week-on-week increase [48][49]. Industrial Metals - The report notes that global refined copper production increased by 2.88% year-on-year in May 2025, although supply growth is not keeping pace with demand [57][59]. - It highlights a significant rise in the import volume of scrap copper, which increased by 19.05% month-on-month in June 2025 [61].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong rating for the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [2][27]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent rise in lithium prices is driven by supply disruptions and seasonal demand peaks, with short-term projections suggesting prices could rebound to 85,000-90,000, and optimistically to 100,000 [3][19]. - The gold market is supported by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with geopolitical uncertainties and trade tensions contributing to a bullish sentiment for gold and silver [2][12]. - The copper market is expected to benefit from ongoing supply constraints and strong demand from the renewable energy sector, with a positive long-term outlook for copper prices [3][15]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report notes that U.S. CPI data has reinforced expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a stable upward trend in gold prices. The geopolitical landscape and trade tensions are expected to continue supporting gold as a safe-haven asset [2][12]. - Recommended stocks include both blue-chip and speculative options in the gold and silver sectors [2][13]. Industrial Metals - The copper market is characterized by tight supply conditions, with disruptions in major mining operations. The report anticipates that copper prices will continue to rise due to strong demand from the renewable energy sector and potential fiscal stimulus measures [3][15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile due to seasonal demand fluctuations, but long-term prospects remain positive due to supply constraints [3][18]. New Energy Metals - The lithium market is experiencing significant price increases due to supply issues and high demand in the electric vehicle sector. The report suggests a bullish outlook for lithium prices in the short to medium term [3][19]. - Recommended stocks in the lithium sector include several key players, indicating strategic investment opportunities [3][20]. Other Minor Metals - The report indicates a positive outlook for rare earth elements, particularly praseodymium and neodymium, driven by recovering demand and stable pricing [3][21]. - The molybdenum market is showing signs of recovery with increased trading activity and rising prices due to improved demand from steel manufacturers [3][25].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial Silicon: Expected to fluctuate within a positive or negative one - standard - deviation range in the future 2 - 12 weeks, rated as "oscillating" [7][52] - Polysilicon: Subject to price fluctuations. If the anti - involution policy expectation fades, there is a risk of reverse price movement. The current assessment is based on the impact of policy implementation, and no specific rating is clearly given, but the price is in a state of wide - range fluctuation [10][11][12] - Lithium Carbonate: Expected to have a 1 - 2 standard - deviation increase in the future 2 - 12 weeks, rated as "oscillating and bullish" [13][52] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading logic of new energy metals is that the Central Financial Work Conference mentioned the orderly elimination of backward production capacity, strengthening investors' expectations of supply - side contraction for silicon. There are also disruptions in domestic lithium supply, such as the shutdown of a large lithium mine in Jiangxi and a production accident in a lithium carbonate production line in Chile, which boost lithium prices, making lithium lead the rise among new energy metals. In the short and medium term, the expectations of supply - side contraction and cost increase support new energy metal prices, and lithium supply disruptions may push up lithium prices in the short term. However, there is an extreme risk of rising lithium prices. For silicon, the current supply and demand are weak, and the upward momentum of silicon prices is slowing down. In the long term, if there is no substantial supply - side contraction or obvious improvement in demand, silicon prices may decline, and the high growth of lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [2] Summary by Related Catalogs I. Market Views 1. Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment fluctuates, and silicon prices continue to be volatile. The medium - term outlook is "oscillating" [7] - **Information Analysis**: As of August 12, the spot prices of industrial silicon fluctuated. The domestic inventory decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, with factory inventory down 1.5% month - on - month. In July 2025, the monthly output increased by 3.2% month - on - month and decreased by 30.6% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative production decreased by 20.0% year - on - year. In June, exports increased by 22.8% month - on - month and 11.6% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, cumulative exports decreased by 6.6% year - on - year. In June, domestic new photovoltaic installations decreased by 38.45% year - on - year, and from January to June, cumulative installations increased by 107.07% year - on - year. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading limits for some industrial silicon contracts [7] - **Main Logic**: The supply of industrial silicon continues to recover. In August, the supply pressure may increase. Demand shows some improvement, but the increase in demand from the aluminum alloy sector is limited. Inventory is expected to accumulate further, and there is a risk of market pressure [7] - **Outlook**: In the short term, silicon prices will continue to oscillate under the influence of macro - sentiment and coal prices. The resumption of production by large factories will be the key factor. If there is concentrated resumption of production, prices may be further suppressed [8] 2. Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment is volatile, and polysilicon prices fluctuate widely. The medium - term outlook is not clearly rated but is in a state of wide - range fluctuation [8][10] - **Information Analysis**: The average transaction price of N - type polysilicon increased by 0.21% week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts increased. In June, exports increased by 5.96% month - on - month and decreased by 39.67% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, cumulative exports decreased by 7.23% year - on - year. Imports in June increased by 40.3% month - on - month, and from January to June 2025, cumulative imports decreased by 47.59% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, domestic new photovoltaic installations increased by 107% year - on - year [8] - **Main Logic**: Macro - economically, the anti - involution sentiment is volatile, and rising coal prices boost polysilicon prices. In terms of supply, production is expected to continue to increase in August. In the long term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether anti - involution policies will restrict supply. On the demand side, the high growth of photovoltaic installations in the first five months has overdrafted the demand for the second half of the year, and there is a risk of weakening demand [11] - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy has a significant impact on polysilicon prices. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the policy. If the policy expectations fade, prices may fluctuate in the opposite direction [12] 3. Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has subsided, and lithium prices retreated in the late trading session. The medium - term outlook is "oscillating and bullish" [12][13] - **Information Analysis**: On August 12, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.88% compared to the previous day, opening high and closing low. The total position increased by 52,662 lots. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased, and the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate was equivalent to 79,200 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate. The warehouse receipts increased by 1,440 tons [12] - **Main Logic**: The reduction of production at Ningde Times' Jiaxiawo Mine will be the focus of market games. Fundamentally, there is not much change. Weekly production has rebounded, and the formal shutdown of the Jiaxiawo Mine will reduce weekly ore supply by more than 2,000 tons of LCE. Current demand is not significantly exceeding expectations, and social inventory is slightly increasing. In the future, there will be a large supply - demand gap in the domestic market, but high prices may stimulate supply release. Currently, call options can be held, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of positive spreads between months [13] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand gap caused by the shutdown is expected to keep prices oscillating and bullish [13] II. Market Monitoring 1. Industrial Silicon - The content mainly focuses on the information analysis and logic in the market views section, including price, inventory, production, exports, and policy adjustments [7] 2. Polysilicon - The content mainly includes price information, warehouse receipt changes, import and export data, and the impact of policies and market sentiment on prices in the market views section [8][11] 3. Lithium Carbonate - The content mainly involves price, position, warehouse receipt changes, and the impact of production shutdowns on supply - demand balance and price trends in the market views section [12][13]