中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-11-26 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 现实供需偏紧，碳酸锂再度领涨新能源 金属 新能源观点：现实供需偏紧，碳酸锂再度领涨新能源⾦属 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需双增，供需延续偏紧格局；工业硅和多晶硅供 需趋松。中短期来看，广期所针对碳酸锂限仓且上调日内平今仓手续 费，投资者对供需偏紧的乐观情绪快速降温，碳酸锂一度杀跌，不 过，考虑到碳酸锂现实供需偏紧，短时冲击过后，投资者重新聚焦偏 紧的供需面，碳酸锂再度领涨新能源金属。长期来看，硅供应端收缩 预期较强，尤其多晶硅，价格重心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升阶 段，但需求预期也在不断拔高，供需过剩量预期在收窄，碳酸锂长期 供需走向需要重新审视。 ⼯业硅观点：过剩压⼒仍在，硅价震荡运⾏ 多晶硅观点：政策预期反复，多晶硅⾼位震荡 碳酸锂观点：需求预期提振，锂价重新⾛强 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 白帅 从业资格号F03093201 投资咨询号Z0020 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of platinum and palladium futures and options by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange in late 2025 will provide new opportunities for the clean energy transition in China, addressing the current reliance on foreign markets for price hedging and risk management [3][5][10]. Group 1: Market Context - Platinum and palladium are essential in various clean energy applications, including hydrogen energy catalysis and automotive exhaust purification, but their high prices and volatility pose risks to industry players [3][5]. - China’s domestic production of platinum and palladium is minimal, with only 4.9 tons expected in 2024, while imports are projected at 91.1 tons, accounting for 70.9% of domestic supply [5][6]. - The reliance on imports exposes Chinese companies to international price fluctuations and supply chain vulnerabilities, with over 85% dependency on foreign sources [6][11]. Group 2: Price Volatility and Risk Management - The price volatility of platinum and palladium has exceeded 20% annually over the past five years, with significant fluctuations recorded in both metals [6][10]. - The introduction of futures and options will enhance risk management capabilities for domestic companies, allowing them to hedge against price risks more effectively [10][11]. - The new contracts will be denominated in RMB, eliminating currency risk and aligning with domestic industry needs [11]. Group 3: Demand Growth and Industry Development - The demand for platinum and palladium is expected to rise significantly due to China's "dual carbon" goals, with projections indicating that platinum demand in the hydrogen economy could exceed 25 tons by 2039 [12][14]. - The futures and options market will facilitate the sharing of market information across the entire supply chain, from import to production and recycling, fostering collaborative development [14]. - The establishment of a complete industrial ecosystem through these financial instruments will enhance China's influence in the global clean energy transition [14].

有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 关注被错杀的有色细分板块 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 47 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 宏观经济增速放缓；关税影响需求与产业链稳定性；原料价格波动；中美关系变化。 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 24 日 看好（维持） | 刘洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 李一涛 | 执业证书编号：S0860124120001 | | --- | --- | | | liyitao@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 当降息预期回摆，关注中期财政发力受益 | 2025-11-17 | | --- | --- | | 品种：——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年 | | | 第 46 周） | | | 西芒杜项目顺利投产，铁矿供给格局变革 | 2025-11-11 | | 有 ...

有色金属 2025 年 11 月 23 日 行 业 研 究 有色金属 碳酸锂价格大幅上涨，锂盐厂积极采矿 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 贵金属：多位美联储官员发表鹰派言论，降息预期有所降低。全球央行购 金热情不减。中国央行连续第十二个月增持黄金。短期而言，美联储降息 预期摇摆，整体呈现易涨难跌格局；中长期而言，全球关税政策和地缘政 治的不确定性背景下，避险和滞涨交易仍是黄金交易的核心，长期配置价 值不改。个股：黄金关注招金灵宝万国紫金黄金，A 股关注紫金、中金、 赤峰及西金等；H 股关注潼关、山金、招矿及集海等。银铂钯均为黄金的 贝塔，个股关注盛达、湖银、豫光、贵研及浩通等。 工业金属：铜，美联储态度翻转反复，铜价底部支撑明显。中长期， 随美联储降息加深提振投资和消费，叠加特朗普政府后续可能宽财政带来 的通胀反弹将支撑铜价中枢上移，新能源需求强劲将带动供需缺口拉大， 继续看好铜价；铝，短期处于季节性淡季或导致铝价震荡运行；中长期看， 国内天花板+能源不足持续扰动，同时新能源需求仍保持旺盛，紧平衡致铝 价易涨难跌。个股：铜，关注江铜、洛钼、盛屯、藏格、金诚信及北铜，H 股关注中色矿及五矿等。铝，关注天山、 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 广期所对碳酸锂限仓，近期亢奋情绪或 降温 新能源观点：⼴期所对碳酸锂限仓，近期亢奋情绪或降温 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需双增，供需延续偏紧格局，库存去化加快；工 业硅和多晶硅供需表现分化，但累库风险在变大。中短期来看，现实 供需偏好，碳酸锂去库加快，投资者乐观情绪驱动碳酸锂价格加速走 高，但广期所开始对碳酸锂限仓，近期亢奋情绪或降温，谨防双边波 动风险；光伏协会上周中快速辟谣收储传闻，硅料供应端收缩政策仍 可期，硅料价格也呈现出下方有支撑的特征。长期来看，硅供应端收 缩预期较强，尤其多晶硅，价格重心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升 阶段，但需求预期也在不断拔高，供需过剩量预期在收窄，碳酸锂长 期供需走向需要重新审视。 ⼯业硅观点：情绪回落供需仍偏弱，硅价震荡运⾏。 多晶硅观点：政策预期反复，多晶硅⾼位震荡。 碳酸锂观点：交易情绪有所降温，注意锂价⾼位波动。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-11-21 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 ...

2025年11月17日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 17 日 镍：镍价破位下行，承压震荡运行 不锈钢：弱现实压制钢价，但下方难言广阔 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com | 镍：镍价破位下行，承压震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：弱现实压制钢价，但下方难言广阔 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：高位震荡，关注需求环比走弱风险 | 4 | | 工业硅：仓单继续去化，底部仍有支撑 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注开会情况 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 117,080 | -1,850 | -2,360 | -3,510 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [8]. Core Views - The demand outlook in the energy storage sector remains positive, driving significant price increases in lithium chemical products [4]. - The end of the U.S. government shutdown has led to a shift in market sentiment, with expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve becoming more uncertain [12][13]. - The overall market for precious metals is characterized by a strong performance, with gold and silver prices benefiting from geopolitical uncertainties and inflation concerns [12][74]. Summary by Sections 1. Precious Metals - The U.S. government shutdown has ended, but expectations for a rate cut in December have become more volatile, impacting market confidence [12]. - Gold prices have shown resilience, supported by geopolitical risks and inflation concerns, while silver prices have also increased significantly [74]. - Key stocks to watch include Zhaojin Mining, Zijin Mining, and others in the A-share and H-share markets [14]. 2. Industrial Metals - The market for copper remains tight, with supply disruptions contributing to price support, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate due to seasonal demand [15][18]. - The anticipated increase in investment and consumption due to potential Federal Reserve rate cuts is expected to further support copper prices [18]. - Notable stocks include Jiangxi Copper, Luoyang Molybdenum, and others [18]. 3. New Energy Metals - The lithium market is experiencing a tight supply situation, with strong demand from the energy storage sector driving prices higher [19]. - The production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase, further supporting price stability [19]. - Key stocks in this sector include Ganfeng Lithium, Yahua Industrial, and others [20]. 4. Other Minor Metals - The rare earth market is showing a mixed outlook, with price increases in raw materials but cautious purchasing behavior from separation enterprises [21][24]. - The market for antimony and tungsten is also experiencing fluctuations, with specific stocks recommended for monitoring [24]. 5. Market Review - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.1%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [25][26]. - Notable stock performances include Fangyuan Co. with a 34.59% increase and Yunlu Co. with a 14.98% decrease [28]. 6. Valuation - The non-ferrous metals sector is currently valued at a PE ratio of 26.47, with aluminum expected to see valuation increases due to supply constraints and higher green metal value [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, the actual supply and demand of new energy metals are favorable. Lithium carbonate is leading the rise, and short - long opportunities for lithium carbonate are worth attention. In the long term, the supply - side contraction expectation of silicon is strong, especially for polysilicon, and the price center may rise. The long - term supply and demand trend of lithium carbonate needs to be re - examined [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **View**: The expectation of organic silicon production cuts suppresses the upward movement of silicon prices. The medium - term outlook is for prices to remain volatile [7]. - **Analysis of Information**: As of October 2025, domestic monthly industrial silicon production was 452,000 tons, a 7.5% month - on - month increase and a 3.8% year - on - year decrease. From January to October, cumulative production was 3.469 million tons, a 16.7% year - on - year decrease. In September, industrial silicon exports were 70,233 tons, an 8.4% month - on - month decrease and a 7.7% year - on - year increase. From January to September 2025, cumulative exports were 561,000 tons, a 2.3% year - on - year increase. The latest domestic inventory was 461,400 tons, a 3.1% month - on - month increase. Organic silicon monomer plants plan to cut production by 30% [7]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the dry season in the southwest has led to a rapid decline in the number of open furnaces, and most southwest silicon plants will enter shutdown and maintenance. Northwest supply has shown small fluctuations with no obvious increase. On the demand side, the demand for industrial silicon from polysilicon in the southwest is expected to decline slightly in November. If the organic silicon production cuts are implemented, demand will also fall. The increase in aluminum alloy demand is limited. The continuous reduction of industrial silicon warehouse receipts provides some support to the futures market [7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **View**: Silicon wafer enterprises have jointly supported prices, and polysilicon prices have stopped falling and rebounded. The medium - term outlook is for wide - range volatility [8]. - **Analysis of Information**: The成交 price range of N - type re -投料 is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 9,130 lots, a decrease of 720 lots from the previous value. From January to September 2025, domestic new photovoltaic installations were 240.27GW, a 49.35% year - on - year increase [8]. - **Main Logic**: The China Photovoltaic Industry Association has refuted false rumors, and silicon wafer enterprises have jointly supported prices, which has stopped the decline of polysilicon prices. From August to October, polysilicon production has recovered to over 130,000 tons, but it will contract in November due to the dry season. On the demand side, photovoltaic installations have declined since June, and downstream demand may weaken in November. Overall, there is still pressure on the supply and demand of polysilicon, but production will decrease during the dry season, and policy expectations remain, so prices are expected to remain in wide - range volatility [10]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **View**: The pattern of strong supply and demand continues, and lithium prices are oscillating at high levels. The short - term outlook is for prices to oscillate strongly [11]. - **Analysis of Information**: On November 13, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.46% to 87,840 yuan/ton, and the total open interest increased by 33,593 lots to 1,038,019 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,050 yuan/ton to 84,350 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 900 yuan/ton to 82,000 yuan/ton. Australian lithium miner Liontown will conduct its first auction of 10,000 tons of lithium spodumene concentrate on November 19, 2025 [11]. - **Main Logic**: The current market has strong supply and demand, and inventory is expected to continue to decline from November to December. However, supply expectations are unstable, which may cause large price fluctuations. SMM monthly production has continued to increase significantly, but there is a shortage of ore, which restricts lithium salt supply. Apparent demand is currently good, and production schedules from November to December are expected to remain strong. Social inventory is continuing to decline, and warehouse receipts have recently stabilized. In the medium - to - short - term, the resumption of production at Jiuxiawo is the key factor affecting the balance sheet. It is recommended to take a bullish approach and buy on dips [12]. 3.2 Market Monitoring 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon No detailed content provided. 3.2.2 Polysilicon No detailed content provided. 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate No detailed content provided. 3.3 Commodity Index - On November 13, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities: the commodity index was 2,269.39, up 0.47%; the commodity 20 index was 2,577.33, up 0.54%; the industrial products index was 2,223.17, down 0.01%; the PPI commodity index was 1,352.02, up 0.54%. The new energy commodity index was 433.60, with a daily increase of 0.89%, a 5 - day increase of 3.31%, a 1 - month increase of 7.49%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.14% [54][55].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-11-11 供需偏紧，碳酸锂继续领涨新能源金属 新能源观点：供需偏紧，碳酸锂继续领涨新能源⾦属 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需双增，供需延续偏紧格局，库存去化加快；工 业硅和多晶硅供需也偏紧，主要是受益于西南地区枯水期减产；电解 钴产量快速下滑，过剩局面缓解。中短期来看，现实供需偏好，碳酸 锂去库加快，碳酸锂领涨新能源金属，关注碳酸锂短多机会。长期来 看，硅供应端收缩预期较强，尤其多晶硅，价格重心可能抬升；锂矿 产能还处于上升阶段，但需求预期也在不断拔高，碳酸锂长期供需走 向需要重新审视。 ⼯业硅观点：枯⽔期减产叠加仓单去化，硅价⽀撑较强。 多晶硅观点：产量边际下滑，多晶硅⾼位震荡。 碳酸锂观点：需求持续超预期，股期联动锂价⼤涨。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 白帅 从业资格号F03093201 投资咨询号Z0020543 杨飞 从业资格号F03108013 投资咨询号 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the non-ferrous metals industry and its outlook for 2026, indicating a potential bull market driven by monetary policy, demand, and supply dynamics [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart interest rate cuts, which, combined with a strengthening trend of de-dollarization, will enhance global liquidity and increase demand for physical assets like non-ferrous metals [1]. Demand Dynamics - The adjustment of U.S. tariff policies is reshaping global supply chains, leading to accelerated demand for non-ferrous metals, particularly from emerging industries such as AI, electricity, new energy, and high-end equipment manufacturing [1]. - The report highlights the importance of strategic resource stockpiling due to rising geopolitical risks, which is expected to further boost demand [1]. Supply Challenges - The non-ferrous mining sector is facing low supply elasticity due to insufficient capital expenditure over the past decade, which is expected to continue affecting supply [1]. - Resource-rich countries are increasingly controlling strategic minerals, adding uncertainty to supply chains [1]. Specific Metal Insights Precious Metals - A decline in real interest rates and de-dollarization are expected to drive gold prices higher, with silver also benefiting from this trend [2]. - The report anticipates strong performance for base metals like copper, aluminum, and tin due to emerging demand and supply constraints [2]. Copper - The copper market is expected to face a supply shortage, with significant disruptions from natural disasters and safety incidents affecting production [9][10]. - Demand from clean energy and global grid investments is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% for copper used in clean energy from 2024 to 2026 [10]. Aluminum - The aluminum sector is poised for a bull market, driven by improving demand from traditional sectors and new energy vehicles [12][14]. - Supply constraints are expected to persist, with domestic production reaching capacity limits [12]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to rise due to increased demand from the semiconductor industry and supply disruptions from illegal mining crackdowns in Indonesia [15][23]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices are projected to remain bullish due to export quota management in the Democratic Republic of Congo and increasing demand from high-performance batteries [17][18]. Lithium - The lithium market is expected to experience a downward trend in prices due to oversupply, despite short-term demand support from seasonal peaks [19][20]. Uranium - Uranium prices are recovering due to limited supply and increased strategic interest from funds, with a focus on high-quality resources in Kazakhstan [21][22]. Tungsten - The tungsten market is characterized by tight supply and strong demand growth, particularly in manufacturing and infrastructure projects [23][25]. Rare Earth Elements - The demand for rare earth elements is expected to grow significantly due to the rise of electric vehicles and high-performance magnets, with supply constraints pushing prices higher [26][27]. Important but Overlooked Content - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of non-ferrous metals in the context of global economic shifts and the need for investors to focus on companies with strong cash flow, resource potential, and acquisition capabilities [2][11][12]. - Risks such as potential obstacles to Federal Reserve rate cuts, lower-than-expected demand, and supply disruptions are highlighted as critical factors that could impact the market [3].