投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2026-03-03 供需预期分化，碳酸锂相对偏强 新能源观点：供需预期分化，碳酸锂相对偏强 交易逻辑：据我的钢铁网和百川盈孚数据，碳酸锂供需延续偏紧格 局，江西部分锂矿复产预期继续延后，津巴布韦限制锂矿出口，供应 扰动担忧持续；工业硅和多晶硅供需整体延续偏宽松。中短期来看， 新能源金属远期供需预期不同，新能源金属价格走势分化，供应有扰 动且供需偏紧的碳酸锂相对偏强。长期来看，硅供应端收缩预期较 强，尤其多晶硅，价格重心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，但 需求预期也在不断拔高，供需过剩量预期在收窄，供需改善预期将推 高价格重心。 ⼯业硅观点：供应有所回升，硅价承压震荡 多晶硅观点：库存持续累积，多晶硅暂时承压 碳酸锂观点：需求预期引担忧，碳酸锂有所回调 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 杨飞 从业资格号F03108013 投资咨询号Z0021455 王雨欣 从业资格号F0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for precious metals due to rising geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the escalation of the Middle East situation, particularly the military actions between the US and Iran, is expected to boost the performance of precious metals as investors seek refuge from market volatility [3]. - It emphasizes that Iran's significant share in global production of certain metals, such as strontium and direct reduced iron (DRI), could lead to price fluctuations in these commodities due to potential supply disruptions [4][6]. - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations of a super cycle for gold driven by central bank purchases and sustained investment demand [3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that Iran's military conflict may impact its production capabilities, particularly in metals where it holds a high global market share, such as strontium (56% of global production) and DRI (24% of global production) [4][5]. - Copper and zinc are identified as critical metals with significant implications for global supply chains, especially in light of potential disruptions in the Middle East [6]. Precious Metals - The report anticipates that geopolitical tensions will enhance the appeal of gold and silver as inflation hedges, with gold prices expected to rise in response to increased demand [3]. - The report also discusses the potential for silver prices to be more volatile due to its dual role as an industrial and financial asset [3]. Aluminum Industry - The report indicates that the ongoing conflict may tighten the global aluminum supply, particularly if Iranian production is affected, which could lead to price increases [11][12]. - It highlights that the aluminum market is currently in a state of tight balance, with potential for price support due to supply constraints [11]. New Energy Metals - The report discusses Zimbabwe's ban on lithium exports, which is expected to tighten the global lithium market and support prices [15][16]. - It suggests that the rise of resource nationalism may lead to increased control over strategic metals, impacting their pricing and availability [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the precious metals sector due to rising geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the escalation of the Middle East conflict, particularly the military actions between the U.S. and Iran, is expected to boost the performance of precious metals as investors seek refuge from market volatility [3]. - It emphasizes that Iran's significant share in global production of certain metals, such as strontium and direct reduced iron (DRI), could lead to price fluctuations in these commodities due to potential supply disruptions [4][6]. - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations of a super cycle for gold driven by central bank purchases and sustained investment demand [3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that Iran accounts for approximately 56% of global strontium production, 24% of DRI production, and has significant copper and zinc reserves, which could be impacted by the ongoing conflict [4][5]. - It suggests that the geopolitical situation may exacerbate supply shortages for copper and other critical metals, urging investors to monitor these developments closely [6]. Aluminum Sector - The report discusses the potential tightening of the global aluminum supply due to the conflict, particularly if Iranian production is affected, which could impact around 600,000 tons of aluminum supply [12][14]. - It indicates that the aluminum market is currently stable, but geopolitical risks could lead to price volatility [11]. New Energy Metals - The report highlights Zimbabwe's ban on lithium exports, which is expected to tighten the global lithium market and support prices, as Zimbabwe is a key supplier [15][16]. - It suggests that the rise of resource nationalism may lead to increased control over strategic metals, impacting pricing dynamics in the market [15]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends specific stocks in the precious metals sector, including Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, as well as companies in the copper and aluminum sectors such as Zijin Mining and China Hongqiao Group [13].

证 券 研 究 报 告 其他小金属：节后钨市偏强节奏运行，现货流通依旧紧张。节后钨产 业链快速回归偏强节奏，矿山复工偏慢，现货流通依旧紧张，持货商报价 坚挺。下游企业陆续复产，刚需补库带动交投回暖，但高价下多以小单谨 慎跟进。光伏钨丝、高端制造等领域需求稳定，成本与低库存形成双重支 撑，全链心态向好，短期行情易涨难跌，后续走势关注节后复工及供需释 放情况。个股：锑建议关注湖南黄金、华锡有色、华钰矿业；钼关注金钼 股份、中金黄金、洛阳钼业；钨关注佳鑫国际资源、中钨高新、厦门钨业、 章源钨业，翔鹭钨业；稀土关注中国稀土、中稀有色、北方稀土、金力永 磁、厦门钨业。 一周市场回顾：本周涨幅前十：菲利华（40.02%）、云南锗业（37.77%）、 章源钨业（32.81%）、沃尔德（32.71%）、锌业股份（26.96%）、华锡 有色（26.73%）、中钨高新（26.35%）、永兴材料（25.51%）、驰宏锌 锗（24.35%）、抚顺特钢（24.25%）。 风险提示 新能源金属：电动车及储能需求不及预期；基本金属：中国消费 修复不及预期；贵金属：美联储降息不及预期。 强于大市（维持评级） 有色金属 2026 年 03 月 ...

2026年02月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 27 日 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：供需偏紧，关注市场情绪变化 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注上游复产情况 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注节后现货成交 | 6 | 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 141,040 | -210 | 5,850 | 9,200 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2026-02-26 供需预期分化，碳酸锂领涨新能源金属 新能源观点：供需预期分化，碳酸锂领涨新能源⾦属 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需延续偏紧格局，供应扰动担忧持续，供需预期 偏紧；工业硅和多晶硅生产企业主动适应弱需求而减产，但工业硅和 多晶硅供需整体延续偏宽松。中短期来看，新能源金属远期供需预期 不同，新能源金属价格走势分化，碳酸锂相对偏强。长期来看，硅供 应端收缩预期较强，尤其多晶硅，价格重心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处 于上升阶段，但需求预期也在不断拔高，供需过剩量预期在收窄，供 需改善预期将推高价格重心。 ⼯业硅观点：供需双弱，硅价延续震荡。 多晶硅观点：库存持续累积，多晶硅暂时承压。 碳酸锂观点：津巴布⻙暂停锂矿出⼝，引发市场对供应担忧。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 杨飞 从业资格号F03108013 投资咨询号Z0021455 王雨欣 从业资格号F03108000 投资咨询号Z0021453 王美丹 从业资格号F03141853 投资咨询号Z0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the industry [6] Core Views - Precious Metals: The core of gold trading remains focused on hedging and stagflation, with long-term allocation value unchanged [1][12] - Industrial Metals: The expectation of interest rate cuts leads to fluctuations in industrial metal prices, with a tight supply-demand balance supporting copper prices [2][14] - New Energy Metals: Lithium carbonate prices have adjusted, and downstream inventory replenishment is sufficient, with potential for price increases if electric vehicle and energy storage sectors maintain high growth [3][19] - Other Minor Metals: The market activity for rare earth products has decreased due to the upcoming Spring Festival, with overall market performance expected to change post-holiday [4][21] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The U.S. macroeconomic data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have weakened market expectations for interest rate cuts, pushing the anticipated first cut from June to July [12] - Key stocks to watch include Zijin Mining, Zhongjin Lingnan, and others in both A-shares and H-shares [13] Industrial Metals - Short-term copper prices are supported by a tight supply-demand balance, while long-term expectations are bolstered by potential interest rate cuts and strong demand from the new energy sector [2][18] - Key stocks to monitor include Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and others [18] New Energy Metals - Lithium prices are expected to rise if the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors continue to grow, despite recent price adjustments [3][19] - Key stocks include Ganfeng Lithium and others in the lithium sector [20] Other Minor Metals - The rare earth market is experiencing lower inquiry activity as the Spring Festival approaches, with price fluctuations expected to increase post-holiday [4][21] - Key stocks to consider include China Rare Earth and others in the rare earth sector [24]

供应端预期反复，新能源金属延续宽幅 震荡 新能源观点：供应端预期反复，新能源⾦属延续宽幅震荡 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需延续偏紧格局，江西部分锂矿复产预期继续延 后，供应扰动担忧持续；工业硅和多晶硅生产企业主动适应弱需求而 减产，工业硅和多晶硅供需略微改善。中短期来看，供应端预期反 复，新能源金属延续宽幅震荡。长期来看，硅供应端收缩预期较强， 尤其多晶硅，价格重心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，但需求 预期也在不断拔高，供需过剩量预期在收窄，供需改善预期将推高价 格重心。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2026-02-10 ⼯业硅观点：⻓期过剩压⼒仍在，硅价震荡运⾏。 多晶硅观点：政策预期反复，多晶硅价格宽幅震荡。 碳酸锂观点：供需驱动不强，碳酸锂震荡运⾏。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 杨飞 从业资格号F03108013 投资咨询号Z0021455 王雨欣 从业资格号F03108000 投资咨询号Z0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the industry [7] Core Views - Precious metals are experiencing significant price volatility, with silver prices retreating from highs due to profit-taking and macroeconomic factors [3][14] - Industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminum, are undergoing price corrections influenced by macroeconomic conditions, with copper prices showing signs of recovery despite inventory accumulation [4][20] - In the new energy metals sector, lithium carbonate prices have sharply declined, but strong demand signals from downstream industries may support a rebound in prices post-holiday [22][27] - Other minor metals, such as rare earths, are showing mixed price movements, with some products experiencing upward pressure due to supply constraints [24][27] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Silver prices have seen a significant drop, with fluctuations driven by market sentiment and macroeconomic news, including the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair [3][14] - Key stocks to watch include Zijin Mining, Zhongjin Lingnan, and others in the gold sector [15] Industrial Metals - Copper prices have corrected, but market activity has increased, with strong buying sentiment noted despite the holiday season affecting production schedules [4][20] - Aluminum prices have experienced volatility, with a notable drop followed by a brief recovery, although the overall supply-demand structure remains weak [20][21] New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have decreased significantly, but robust demand from downstream sectors indicates potential for price recovery in the near future [22][27] - Key stocks in the lithium sector include Ganfeng Lithium and others [23] Other Minor Metals - The rare earth market has shown mixed price trends, with some products like praseodymium-neodymium oxide experiencing upward price movements due to supply constraints [24][27] - Stocks to monitor include Hunan Gold and others in the minor metals sector [27]

Core Viewpoints - Silver futures have ended their limit down, indicating that the current liquidity shock is largely over. Since November 2025, silver has become a leading indicator of bullish sentiment in the commodity market, alongside gold and copper, activating a rotation sequence in commodities [2][12] - The recent decline in silver futures has triggered a liquidity risk contagion in the commodity market, leading to widespread sell-offs in related sectors. The opening of the limit down on February 3rd suggests a relief in market risks [2][12] Market Events - On February 3, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) silver futures opened limit down, closing at 21,446 CNY/kg, a decline of 16.71%. The London silver spot price was 79.2 USD/oz, with the SHFE silver futures premium dropping from 29.8% at the end of January to 7.46% by February 3 [1][11] - On February 4, the SHFE silver main contract night session rose by 5.93%, closing at 22,393 CNY/kg [1][11] Volatility Analysis - The implied volatility of silver futures remains high, with a peak of 148% on February 2, indicating that while the limit down has been lifted, the market still needs to stabilize from liquidity risks. Gold futures also show elevated volatility, suggesting that both metals require time to fully absorb the liquidity shock [3][13] Commodity Market Dynamics - The core logic of the commodity market remains unchanged despite liquidity shocks. Some commodities, which were mispriced due to liquidity risks, may return to their fundamental pricing logic as the market stabilizes. The 2026 asset allocation report highlights three main lines for the commodity market post-liquidity shock [4][14] - Precious metals are expected to enter a consolidation phase after a period of broad increases, supported by long-term narratives such as the weakening of global sovereign currency credit and the "de-dollarization" trend [4][17] Non-Ferrous Metals - Non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum are expected to benefit from structural changes in demand driven by new economic sectors such as AI and renewable energy. Despite recent adjustments due to liquidity shocks, the fundamental pricing mechanisms for these metals remain robust [5][18] Chemical Sector - The chemical sector is anticipated to see continued improvement in market conditions, driven by supply-side adjustments and structural changes in demand. The sector is becoming a key area for capital inflows, despite recent declines linked to precious metals [6][19] New Energy Metals - New energy metals, particularly lithium carbonate, are expected to gradually move towards supply-demand balance, supported by policy adjustments and demand growth. The sector remains a focal point for bullish investment opportunities [7][20]