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市场如何定价美伊冲突的不确定性?
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2026-03-29 10:22
Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight", expecting a gain of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [24] Core Viewpoints - A-share market is moving from "external sentiment game" to "endogenous trend pricing" [2] - Despite the uncertainty of the US-Iran conflict, A-shares show independent trends, with volatility convergence, emotional indicators returning to neutral, and attracting global capital [2] - Amid increasing external risks, the revaluation of Chinese assets may have just begun [3] - Focus on high-slope technology chains and energy substitution advantage chains [5] Summary by Directory Introduction: Trump's Taco Flip-Flop, Market Gradually Immune - The impact of the US-Iran conflict on market volatility is gradually weakening, with VIX and Hang Seng Volatility Index stable in the 20 - 30 range, and A-shares showing independent trends [8] - The fear and greed index of the Shanghai Composite Index has rebounded from "extreme panic" to the "neutral" range, indicating A-shares' "desensitization" to external disturbances [10] New Safety Cushion Emerges, Negative Feedback Impact Weakens - As of March 23, 2026, the maximum drawdown of "Fixed Income +" funds was about 1.93%, not reaching the negative feedback threshold of 2.5% - 5.5% [2][13] - After two consecutive trading days of rebounds, the safety cushion for absolute return investors has strengthened, and the liability side is not a source of risk [2] - The allocation structure of hybrid secondary bond funds with high-coupon, high-grade bonds as the bottom position provides a buffer and stabilizes market fluctuations [14] Revaluation of Chinese Assets: Valuation洼地 Continually Attracts Foreign Capital Inflow - Global capital allocation has shifted to China this week, with foreign capital selling assets in the US, Japan, and South Korea and significantly increasing holdings in China [15] - From February 27 to March 27, China's market was more resilient than other global markets, with smaller declines [17] External Disturbances Desensitize, A-shares Return to Endogenous Logic - The marginal impact of the US-Iran conflict and Trump's "taco" on A-shares is gradually weakening, and the market has become "desensitized" [19] - As the conflict becomes clearer, external impacts are weakening, and the market's endogenous logic will gradually dominate pricing [21] - Focus on the AI chain with strong upward profit expectations and the new energy chain with energy substitution advantages [22]