针对当前的宏观博弈，GTC泽汇资本认为，虽然突发事件对全球经济的短期直接冲击有待观察，但地缘 政治溢价将促使相关区域资产的风险权重重新评估。特别是该地区庞大的原油储量与脆弱的供应现状， 使得任何风吹草动都可能演变为能源市场的供应焦虑，进而通过通胀预期对贵金属形成利好支撑。 此外，GTC泽汇资本表示，黄金的走强并非孤立现象，其背后有着深层的基本面驱动。随着市场对下半 年货币政策转向宽松的预期不断加强，加之全球多国央行持续增持黄金储备，以及对全球增长放缓的担 忧，黄金的长期投资价值日益凸显。GTC泽汇资本总结认为，在当前避险买盘与宏观政策周期的共同作 用下，金价有望继续冲击历史顶峰，成为投资者应对全球不确定性的关键配置工具。 责任编辑：陈平 1月6日，受西半球局部地区突发安全局势及领导层变动影响，全球金融市场避险情绪迅速升温。GTC泽 汇资本认为，这一地缘局势的剧烈震荡直接诱发了市场对避险资产的强烈需求，黄金作为应对不确定性 的核心品种，再次受到资本的热烈追捧。受此消息推动，现货黄金应声走强，盘中一度上涨2.7%至每 盎司4，448.20美元，显示出资金对风险事件的快速定价能力。 进入2026年初，黄金市场在历史 ...

美国于2026年1月3日突然对委内瑞拉发动袭击，并拘捕了委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗。委内瑞拉局势迅速牵动大宗商品市场的波动，周一开局，黄金价 格跳空高开突破4400美元，上涨2.7%，白银价格突破76美元，美国原油价格止步连跌升至58美元上方。 委内瑞拉局势变化意味着： "地缘政治溢价"回归：地缘政治风险再次成为市场主导因素，但当前高供应、弱需求的宏观背景会限制其强度。 委内瑞拉国家石油公司(PDVSA)已开始削减原油产量，因在美国持续的石油封锁下，出口量已降至零，PDVSA储存能力耗尽，委内瑞拉临时政府面对美国 威胁采取更多军事行动之际，继续掌权的企图正遭遇更大压力。 而其实在马杜罗被捕前，对冲基金加大了对石油的看涨押注。美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的数据显示，截至12月30日当周，基金经理对美国基准原 油的净多头头寸增加了2045手，达到19711手，创两个月来最大增幅。洲际交易所欧洲期货交易所的数据显示，对冲基金对布伦特原油的多头头寸升至四周 以来的最高水平，因为当时的市场正在权衡有关南美国家即将遭受陆地袭击的猜测。 避险情绪"选择性"突起：避险交易会启动，但可能短暂且不全面。资金更可能涌入黄金 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 30 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：前高的考验 [Table_Title2] [Table_Summary] 12 月 29 日，时间距离跨年仅剩三个交易日，但市场并不平静。股市表现先强后弱，多数股指全天走出倒 V 型行情，债市全天大幅调整，部分中长久期品种收益率上行幅度高达 3-5bp。 权益市场缩量下跌。万得全 A下跌 0.29%，全天成交额 2.16 万亿元，较上周五（12 月 26 日）缩量 234 亿 元。港股方面，恒生指数下跌 0.71%，恒生科技下跌 0.30%。南向资金净流出 34.14 亿港元，其中招商银行净流 入 9.71 亿港元，而中国移动、阿里巴巴分别净流出 14.50 亿港元和 10.24 亿港元。 盘中再现冲高回落，资金在指数前高附近激烈博弈。近两个交易日行情均出现盘中大幅回落的情况，原因来 看，万得全 A 已涨至 10 月和 11 月前高附近，此处的亏损筹码已基本扭亏，或许更倾向于兑现。事实上，前高附 近资金态度难免出现分歧，而指数距离确认趋势，仅有咫尺之遥。若指数强势上涨突破前高，意味 ...

原油日报 | 2025-12-18 委内瑞拉局势恶化，短期原油发货量下降 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所2026年1月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨67美分，收于每桶55.94美元，涨幅为1.21%；2月交货 的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨76美分，收于每桶59.68美元，涨幅为1.29%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.73%，报427 元/桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 当地日期12月17日，委内瑞拉国家石油公司（PDVSA）发布公告通报称，委内瑞拉原油及石油产品出口业务 正在正常开展。公告称，与委内瑞拉国家石油公司相关的油轮仍继续在充分的技术支持和运营保障下航行，合法 行使自由航行权利。自由航行与自由贸易的权利受到国际法的广泛承认和保护。委内瑞拉国家石油公司重申其捍 卫委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔共和国能源主权、履行合法商业承诺及保护海上运营的决心，重申始终遵循宪法、国际海事 法及《联合国宪章》原则行事。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 据乌克兰总参谋部称，乌克兰无人机袭击了俄罗斯卢克石油公司（LukoilPJSC）位于里海的格雷弗（Grayfer） 油田，并损坏了一个海上天然气平台。声明称，此次袭击发生在1 ...

因供大于求，布伦特原油期货自5月以来首次跌破关键水平60美元/桶，进一步加深了今年以来的跌幅， 同时WTI原油期货在每桶56美元附近徘徊。在欧佩克+和美洲国家的新供应浪潮以及需求增长放缓的推 动下，大量石油过剩的前景在2025年推动了油价的逐步下跌。俄乌达成停火协议的新希望，也削弱了原 油长期以来的地缘政治溢价。尽管如此，市场仍在权衡美国对委内瑞拉施压可能产生的影响。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-04 对俄罗斯供应担忧重燃，能化延续震荡 整理 能源化⼯组研究团队 研究员： 原油期货价格近期延续震荡整理态势，地缘尚未看到完全消退的迹 象。央视新闻报道，俄美会谈未达成这种方案，乌克兰也在不停的袭击俄 罗斯的石油基础设施。过去一周，四艘俄罗斯油轮遭到袭击，俄罗斯表示 再发生类似事件将考虑直接袭击资助乌克兰的国家的商船。市场也在密切 关注CPC石油码头被袭，彭博报道，可能3天内就会逐步恢复该码头原油的 正常装载，当前黑海俄罗斯港口的保险费出现了大幅飙升。CPC码头是哈 萨克斯坦原油重要的出口渠道，日均出口量高达180万桶。 板块逻辑： 化工跟随原油延续震荡整理态势。美国炼厂开工率快速回升，成品油 逐步累库，随着近期汽油裂解价差的回落，芳烃调油的逻辑弱化，芳烃的 上行动力略显不足，芳烃端尤其是PX对2026年太过乐观的预期可能导致未 来一段时间该品种的交易难度较大。烯烃的供给压力也从未减缓，资金换 月因素带来短暂反弹，后期也仍将偏弱运行。 原油：地缘溢价摇摆，供应压力延续 沥青：沥青期价超跌后向现货修复 高硫燃油：燃 ...

Core Insights - Venezuela is poised to become a significant player in the oil market due to the potential for U.S. military action, given its status as the country with the largest proven oil reserves globally [1] Group 1: Importance of Venezuelan Oil - Venezuelan heavy crude oil is crucial for many U.S. refineries, with nearly 70% of U.S. refining capacity operating most efficiently when processing heavy crude [2] - The historical significance of Venezuela in the global oil market is underscored by its status as a founding member of OPEC and its vast oil reserves [2] - U.S. Gulf Coast refineries are specifically designed to process Venezuelan heavy crude, which is characterized as "cheap, abundant, and capable of producing significant amounts of diesel and fuel for heavy manufacturing" [2] Group 2: Current Production and Export Dynamics - Venezuelan oil production is projected to rise slightly from approximately 867,000 barrels per day in 2024 to about 945,000 barrels per day in the third quarter of this year, although this represents a 70% decline from five years ago when production was estimated at 3.2 million barrels per day [2] - Chevron has recently obtained new drilling permits in Venezuela, indicating that about 20% of Venezuelan oil exports are now directed towards the U.S. [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions and Market Impact - The renewed focus on U.S.-Venezuela tensions, particularly following reports of potential U.S. military action, could have implications for the Venezuelan oil industry, potentially leading to increased investment if the situation stabilizes [5] - Any disruption in global oil flows could be exacerbated by ongoing sanctions against Russia, which may lead to a global supply shortage, particularly as demand rises [6] - Analysts suggest that U.S. military action could increase geopolitical risk premiums, potentially raising oil prices by $1 to $2 per barrel, despite Venezuela not being a major oil exporter [6]

各位朋友，我是帮主郑重，做了20年财经记者，也陪着大家在中长线投资里摸爬滚打，周五大宗商品那波动静，估计不少关注的朋友都有点懵——油价 蹭蹭往上走，黄金和铜价反倒往下掉，一涨一跌看着矛盾，其实背后全是逻辑，今天咱就像唠家常似的，把这事儿说透。 作为中长线投资者，咱面对这种波动该咋应对呢？首先别被短期消息带偏节奏，地缘政治推涨的油价，往往来得快去得也快，长期还是要看全球经济复 苏、石油供需格局这些核心因素；黄金和铜价的短期回调，也不用慌，只要长期通胀和全球制造业复苏的大逻辑没破，回调反而是捡优质标的的机会。 其次，咱要盯着自己能掌控的变量，比如国内的经济数据、行业需求变化，这些比短期的地缘消息、政策传闻靠谱多了。最后还是老规矩，别追涨杀 跌，中长线投资拼的就是耐心，跟着核心逻辑走，比天天盯着盘面波动踏实多了。 我是帮主郑重，20年财经记者生涯，见多了大宗商品的起起落落，其实不管涨还是跌，只要抓准核心逻辑，波动反而能变成机会。要是你手里有大宗商 品相关的标的，或者想了解某类品种的中长线布局思路，都可以跟我说，我帮你结合行业趋势和基本面捋捋~ 这次油价上涨，说白了就是地缘政治给闹的。乌克兰袭击了俄罗斯的重要石油港口 ...

Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear long trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: No clear indication - Low - sulfur fuel oil: No clear indication - Asphalt: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: No clear indication Core Views - The sanctions on Russia's crude oil exports are unlikely to have a continuous inhibitory effect, and there is still room for the downside risk of oil prices to be released this year [1] - The price of fuel oil is mainly driven by the crude oil market, and the spread between low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to further expand [2] - The asphalt market is in the off - season, with weak demand and falling prices [3] - The fundamentals of LPG have improved marginally, providing support for the LPG futures price [3] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fluctuated, and were relatively strong in the Asian session. China's crude oil imports in October increased by 2.3% month - on - month and 8.2% year - on - year [1] - There are rumors of the 20th round of EU sanctions on Russia, but the sanctions are unlikely to continuously suppress Russia's crude oil export volume [1] - The fastest inventory accumulation period for global oil in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year has not yet arrived, and the bullish support of short - term geopolitical factors for oil prices is increasingly limited [1] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market has been fluctuating, and its price is mainly affected by the crude oil market. Low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil [2] - The crack spread of low - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened recently due to factors such as the unexpected shutdown of Kuwait's Al - Zour refinery and the adjustment of the shipping rhythm of Dangote refinery. However, the overall supply in Asia is still abundant, and the continuous upward momentum is expected to be limited [2] - Geopolitical factors support high - sulfur fuel oil, but the supply pattern is expected to become looser in the medium term due to the recovery of damaged refineries in Russia and other reasons [2] Asphalt - In the off - season, the demand in the north is weak, and the increase in demand for modified asphalt in the southwest and south China cannot make up for the decline. The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries decreased week - on - week [3] - Social inventories have been increasing year - on - year since the end of October. Refineries have been reducing prices, and market sentiment is bearish [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG futures contract has continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. The chemical demand for propane and butane has increased, and the demand for combustion has improved due to the significant cooling in many places [3] - The storage rates of refineries and ports have decreased, and the improved fundamentals support the LPG futures price [3]

Core Insights - The Indian capital market is experiencing an unprecedented wave of foreign capital outflow, with net outflows exceeding $22 billion in the past three months, marking a historical high. This trend reflects systemic risks facing the Indian economy and a strategic shift in global capital allocation [2][3]. Group 1: Triggers of the Outflow - Deteriorating policy environment: Frequent modifications to foreign investment regulations by the Modi government, including localization requirements and retrospective taxation, have severely undermined investor confidence [3]. - Accumulation of valuation bubble risks: The Sensex index has maintained a price-to-earnings ratio above 25, with some tech unicorns valued at 3-4 times the industry average, prompting institutions like BlackRock and Vanguard to adopt profit-taking strategies [3]. - Disappearance of geopolitical premiums: With a temporary easing of US-China relations, capital is reassessing the value of the "China+1" strategy, revealing significant shortcomings in India's supply chain completeness and business efficiency [3]. Group 2: Key Areas of Capital Withdrawal - Financial technology sector: Companies like Paytm have seen their stock prices halve, with foreign ownership dropping by 40% [3]. - Renewable energy: Import restrictions on solar components have stalled multiple large-scale projects [3]. - Consumer electronics: Companies like Xiaomi and OPPO face compliance scrutiny, leading to a 28% reduction in foreign ownership among supply chain firms [3]. - Infrastructure REITs: Significant redemptions have occurred in highway and power asset securitization products [3]. Group 3: Structural Deficiencies - Infrastructure bottlenecks: Logistics costs account for 14% of GDP, significantly higher than the Southeast Asian average [3]. - Labor quality trap: Only 5% of the eligible workforce has received systematic vocational training [3]. - Financial system vulnerabilities: The non-performing loan ratio remains above the 8% warning threshold [3]. - Local protectionism: Inconsistent tax policies across states have led to increased cross-regional operational costs [3].