Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices are expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern. Upside is constrained by weakening marginal demand, while downside is supported by short - term geopolitical premiums. Supply - side factors and demand - side concerns, along with the uncertainty of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, lead to a lack of continuous impetus in the capital market [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - On August 19, the closing price of the domestic SC crude oil futures main contract was 484.2 yuan/barrel, down 0.47% from the previous trading day. The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures remained flat at $62.58/barrel and $66.46/barrel respectively. The spreads of SC to Brent and WTI narrowed by $0.35. The SC continuous - to - third spread changed from contango to backwardation, with a decline of 268.18% [2]. 2. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes Supply - Geopolitical conflicts and producer policies dominate supply disruptions. Oil transportation from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Russian Friendship Pipeline was briefly interrupted. Angola plans to cut exports to 994,000 barrels per day in October. The Volgograd refinery of Russia's Lukoil was suspended due to an attack, which may suppress Russia's refined oil export capacity. India's July imports of Russian crude oil decreased, but state - owned refineries turned to Middle Eastern or American oil sources, which may indirectly support OPEC+ export shares [3]. Demand - The seasonal demand peak is nearing its end. The decline in US API gasoline inventories narrowed (- 956,000 barrels), and refined oil inventories increased, indicating weakening travel demand. The US natural gas price dropped to a nine - month low, which may suppress the demand for fuel oil for power generation. The refinery operating rate increased marginally, but its support for oil prices was limited [3]. Inventory - US API data showed that in the week ending August 15, crude oil inventories decreased by 2.417 million barrels (expected to decrease by 1.587 million barrels), the decline in Cushing inventories narrowed to 112,000 barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 535,000 barrels. The domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange's crude oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4.767 million barrels, with no short - term delivery pressure [3]. 3. Price Trend Judgment - Crude oil prices will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern. The upside is limited by weakening marginal demand, and the downside is supported by short - term geopolitical premiums. Supply - side factors such as infrastructure attacks and OPEC+ production cuts provide bottom support, while demand - side issues like seasonal weakness in US gasoline consumption and India's import structure adjustment raise doubts about the actual digestion capacity of the market. The repeated expectations of Russia - Ukraine peace talks intensify market wait - and - see sentiment [4]. 4. Industry Chain Price Monitoring Crude Oil - Futures prices of SC, WTI, and Brent changed on August 19 compared to August 18. Spot prices of various crude oil types also had different changes. Spreads such as SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI had corresponding fluctuations. Other assets like the US dollar index, S&P 500, DAX index, and RMB exchange rate also showed changes. Inventory data of US commercial crude oil, Cushing inventories, and strategic reserves had different trends, and the US refinery operating rate and crude oil processing volume also changed [6]. Fuel Oil - Futures prices of FU, LU, and NYMEX fuel oil, as well as spot prices of various fuel oil types, had different changes. Spreads such as Singapore's high - low sulfur spread and China's high - low sulfur spread also fluctuated. Inventory data of Platts and various regions' fuel oil had corresponding trends [7]. 5. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation Supply - India's imports of Russian crude oil decreased in July. The oil supply from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Russian Friendship Pipeline was briefly interrupted. The US plans to increase tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil. Angola will cut oil exports to 994,000 barrels per day in October. The Volgograd refinery of Russia's Lukoil was attacked and suspended operations [8][9][10]. Demand - Sinopec (Henan) Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. increased its registered capital from 10 million RMB to about 1.84 billion RMB, with an increase of 18334% [11]. Inventory - US API inventory data for the week ending August 15 showed changes in crude oil, refined oil, gasoline, and other inventories. US natural gas futures dropped to a nine - month low. Domestic crude oil futures prices fluctuated slightly, and the warehouse receipts of various futures remained unchanged [12][13]. Market Information - The US has held separate peace talks with some European countries and Ukraine about the Russia - Ukraine issue, but direct talks between Russia and Ukraine have not taken place, and the cease - fire agreement has not made actual progress. Oil prices are expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations [14]. 6. Industry Chain Data Charts - The content provides various data charts related to the oil industry, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent contracts, the spread between SC and WTI, US crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, refinery operating rates, and inventory data [15][17][19].

华泰期货研究 2025 年期货市场展望 展望下半年，高硫燃料油市场三季度仍受到旺季发电端需求的支撑，但随着未来夏季结束、发电厂需求回落，且欧佩克增产将逐步释放更 多供应，高硫油市场需要其他需求的增量来完成市场再平衡，考虑到航运端需求面临关税风险、脱硫塔数量增长进度放缓，因此值得期待 的是炼厂端的需求回升，而这需要裂解价差进一步回调来带动燃料油加工利润修复，从而刺激炼厂端的采购增加...... Energy 能源板块研究 Research 本期分析研究员 潘翔 从业资格号：F3023104 投资咨询号：Z0013188 康远宁 从业资格号：F3049404 投资咨询号：Z0015842 结构性因素仍存，燃料油市场或面临再平衡 核心观点 研究院 能源组 研究员 华泰期货研究院能源板块研究 2025 年 7 月 6 日 期货研究报告 | 燃料油半年报 2025-07-06 潘翔 0755-82767160 panxiang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3023104 投资咨询号：Z0013188 康远宁 0755-23991175 kangyuanning@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3049404 投资咨 ...

Group 1: Oil Market Performance - Domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract showed a significant decline, closing down 8.13% at 508.6 yuan/barrel after reaching a high of 516.8 yuan/barrel and a low of 500.2 yuan/barrel [1] - Fuel oil main contract fell 5.96% to 3015 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil main contract dropped 2.85% to 3716 yuan/ton [1] - The geopolitical situation has led to a reduction in speculative long positions, contributing to the decline in oil prices [1] Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The geopolitical risk index has risen significantly due to Middle Eastern conflicts, increasing the risk premium in the oil futures market [2] - Despite a decrease in geopolitical tensions, concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East persist, maintaining strong demand for immediate supply [1][2] - U.S. manufacturing data shows marginal improvement, with the Market Manufacturing PMI at 52%, indicating ongoing industrial expansion [2] Group 3: Inventory and Supply Dynamics - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a decrease in U.S. crude oil and distillate inventories, with crude oil stocks down by 4.23 million barrels, indicating limited supply pressure during the consumption peak [2] - Gasoline inventories increased by 764,000 barrels, exceeding analyst expectations [2] - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, while U.S. crude oil production remains at a historical high of 13.431 million barrels per day [4] Group 4: Market Outlook and Recommendations - Analysts suggest cautious trading strategies, recommending light positions in crude oil put options due to ongoing geopolitical risks [3] - The market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, influenced by geopolitical developments and supply-demand dynamics [3][4] - The potential for supply disruptions is increasing, and close monitoring of geopolitical changes is advised [4]

特朗普称伊以或将停火，地缘溢价大幅降低 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 截至2025年6月23日，原油市场呈现结构性分化特征。SC原油期货价格从 566.6元/桶小幅回升至574.5元/桶，涨幅1.39%，但夜盘出现大幅回调收跌 5.65%至538元/桶；而WTI和Brent则分别大跌9.2%和9.82%至67.23美元/桶 和69.73美元/桶。跨市场价差显著变动，SC-Brent价差走强559.35%至 10.22美元/桶，SC-WTI价差扩大163.35%至12.72美元/桶，显示亚洲基准油 种相对走强，而Brent-WTI价差则收窄23.78%至2.5美元/桶，反映欧美市场 同步承压。 供应端，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文表示，以 色列和伊朗已同意全面停火。停火协议涉及两个12小时的停火期，伊朗将 启动首个12小时停火，以色列将随后进行第二个12小时停火，24小时后， 战争将正式宣布结束。特朗普的发文带来了原油的第一轮下挫，隔夜油价 跌超5%。 需求侧呈现区域分化： ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The short - term pig price may have a small - scale rebound, but in the long - term, it will maintain a weak trend due to the supply - demand imbalance [1][2]. - The sugar price will stop falling and rebound in the short - term but will be in a weak oscillation in the medium - to - long - term as the global sugar market is expected to be in surplus [3][4]. - The crude oil price will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, but will decline in the long - term as the supply increases and demand is restricted [5][7]. - PVC will run strongly in the short - term due to the impact of the Israel - Iran conflict, but its price may face pressure in the long - term as its supply - demand fundamentals are not strong [8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Pig - **Supply**: As of June 20, the average weight of national pig slaughter was 123.78kg, down 0.18kg from the previous week. Due to policy and temperature factors, scale enterprises are accelerating the weight reduction of pigs [1]. - **Demand**: On June 20, the slaughtering rate was 28.13%, slightly up from the previous week. However, consumer demand for pork is low in summer, limiting the further increase of the slaughtering rate [1]. - **Strategy**: The short - term view is a continued rise, the medium - term view is a weak operation after a phased rebound, and the recommended strategy is to sell short on rallies [1][2]. Sugar - **International**: Tensions in the Middle East have pushed up oil prices, increasing the proportion of Brazilian sugar mills producing ethanol and reducing sugar supply. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of May increased year - on - year. India is expected to have a large increase in production in the new season, and Thailand is expected to produce 1005 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season [3]. - **Domestic**: As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production was 11.16 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons year - on - year. The cumulative sugar sales were 8.11 million tons, an increase of 1.52 million tons year - on - year. The sales progress was 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year. Imported sugar is expected to increase in the future [4]. - **Strategy**: The short - term view is a stable rebound, the medium - term view is a weak oscillation, and the recommended strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options [3][4]. Crude Oil - **Supply**: The US's raid on Iranian nuclear facilities has escalated the Middle East situation. Although the probability of Iran completely blocking the Strait of Hormuz is low, there is a risk of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel. Non - OPEC resources are expected to expand, and OPEC+ is maintaining a production - increasing strategy [5][6]. - **Demand**: In the US, the refinery operating rate has returned to normal levels, but the downstream demand is poor. In China, the operating rate of major refineries is approaching 80%, and the gasoline consumption has slightly improved, while diesel demand has decreased [6]. - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventories have declined for four consecutive weeks, while fuel inventories have increased for three consecutive weeks. Oil inventories are expected to accumulate, suppressing the upside of oil prices [6]. - **Strategy**: The short - term view is high - level fluctuations, the medium - term view is a downward - pressured operation, and the recommended strategy is a combination of short futures positions and buying call options [5][7]. PVC - **Cost**: The supply of calcium carbide in the northwest region is tightening, and the demand from downstream is weakening. As of June 23, the price of calcium carbide in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia remained flat [8]. - **Supply**: The 200,000 - ton/year PVC device of Haohua stopped production last week. As of June 20, the weekly operating rate of the PVC industry was 78.62%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points from the previous week [8]. - **Demand**: Some downstream enterprises have replenished their stocks, but the overall purchasing enthusiasm is not significantly improved. The export situation is expected to improve in the second half of the year, but the current orders have not increased significantly [8][9]. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, the social inventory of PVC was 355,100 tons, a decrease of 0.08% from the previous week and a decrease of 41.19% year - on - year [9]. - **Strategy**: The short - term view is range - bound fluctuations, the medium - term view is limited driving force for continuous growth, and the recommended strategy is to sell out - of - the - money call options on PVC at an appropriate time [8][9].

Market Overview - On June 23, PTA futures experienced a rebound after a decline, with a general atmosphere in the spot market and a slight increase in spot offers. The mainstream supply was focused on long-term sources, with June transactions mainly around 09+260 to 270, and individual prices slightly higher, within a negotiation range of 5220 to 5300 [1] - The processing fee for PTA spot reached approximately 398 yuan/ton, while the processing fee for TA2509 was 344 yuan/ton [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: PTA operating rates dropped to 79.1%, a decrease of 3.9% [3] - Demand: Following routine maintenance on one unit and the restart of two units, the polyester comprehensive operating rate increased to around 92%, up by 1.1%. However, the demand from downstream sectors remains weak, with inventory accumulation in the terminal dyeing and weaving sectors [3] Price Trends and Outlook - Despite maintenance at Fuhai Chuang and Hengli facilities, the outlook for PTA supply and demand remains weak due to new installations coming online and continuous signals of production cuts from downstream polyester factories. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has shown signs of easing, leading to a significant drop in oil prices, which is expected to negatively impact PTA in the short term [4]

来源 | 一德菁英汇 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 自6月13日以色列袭击伊朗以来，中东地缘因素推动油价上涨已经持续10余天。6月21日美国袭击了 伊朗的核设施，6月22日，伊朗国会做出封锁霍尔木兹海峡的决定，等待国家最高安全机构做最终决 定，以此来回击美国的袭击。随着美国的参与，中东地缘局势急剧紧张，断供风险进一步增加，6月 23日开盘，Brent首行最高冲高至81.4美元/桶。 霍尔木兹海峡，这条位于西亚的狭窄水道，是全球能源运输的"咽喉要道"。它的一举一动牵动着全球 每一个能源市场参与者。对于伊朗表示封锁霍尔木兹海峡一事，原油市场将面临怎样的冲击？我们将 从地理位置、战略地位、历史危机等维度展开分析。 策略速览版 核心结论 地缘溢价抬升但封锁难持续，油价短期冲高后回落概率大。 01 霍尔木兹海峡在哪？ 封锁可能性低 ① 中东原油出口高度依赖霍尔木兹海峡，主要销往亚洲。 ② 伊朗若封锁海峡将重创中东国家经济命脉，实际行动概率低，属"得不偿失"。 ③ 若仅封锁美国军舰，对石油供应影响有限。 油价冲高回落预判 ① 地缘紧张推升短期溢价，Brent高点或达85美元/桶。 ② 极端封锁将致油价失控，但国 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/06/20 中国期货每日简报 China Futures Daily Note 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: MOFCOM stated that it will continuously accelerate review of rare earths e ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 19 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...

据追风交易台消息， 摩根大通大宗商品分析师Natasha Kaneva发布的最新报告显示，仅仅一天之内，该行 对"最坏情景"的概率预测从7%暴涨至17% ——这 意味着 霍尔木兹海峡封闭 、油价指数级飙升的可能性增加了一倍多。 当战火延烧至伊朗核心能源动脉时，全球市场正屏息以待一场可能重塑中东能源格局的升级。 据央视新闻报道，14日伊朗南部布什尔省两家炼油厂遭遇以色列空袭，南帕尔斯炼油厂第14期项目设施爆炸起火，法杰尔·贾姆炼油厂同样遭到袭击。伊朗伊 斯兰共和国通讯社援引布什尔省危机管理部门官员的话报道说，两处设施的火势已于14日晚得到控制，暂无人员伤亡报告。 这是以色列首次直接打击伊朗能源基础设施，也是上世纪80年代两伊战争以来首次有伊朗境内炼油厂遇袭。 分析认为， 以色列至少在现阶段试图限制对国际市场的影响和连锁反应，这种"有限升级"策略能否持续，完全取决于伊朗的反应强度。 Kaneva指出， 地缘政治溢价已经比其模型推导的66美元公允价值高出10美元，表明最坏情况发生的概率为17%。 华尔街见闻此前提及，在摩根大通设定的"最坏情景"下，包括油价反应从线性转为指数级，供应影响可能超出伊朗石油出口减少210 ...