Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight", expecting a gain of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [24] Core Viewpoints - A-share market is moving from "external sentiment game" to "endogenous trend pricing" [2] - Despite the uncertainty of the US-Iran conflict, A-shares show independent trends, with volatility convergence, emotional indicators returning to neutral, and attracting global capital [2] - Amid increasing external risks, the revaluation of Chinese assets may have just begun [3] - Focus on high-slope technology chains and energy substitution advantage chains [5] Summary by Directory Introduction: Trump's Taco Flip-Flop, Market Gradually Immune - The impact of the US-Iran conflict on market volatility is gradually weakening, with VIX and Hang Seng Volatility Index stable in the 20 - 30 range, and A-shares showing independent trends [8] - The fear and greed index of the Shanghai Composite Index has rebounded from "extreme panic" to the "neutral" range, indicating A-shares' "desensitization" to external disturbances [10] New Safety Cushion Emerges, Negative Feedback Impact Weakens - As of March 23, 2026, the maximum drawdown of "Fixed Income +" funds was about 1.93%, not reaching the negative feedback threshold of 2.5% - 5.5% [2][13] - After two consecutive trading days of rebounds, the safety cushion for absolute return investors has strengthened, and the liability side is not a source of risk [2] - The allocation structure of hybrid secondary bond funds with high-coupon, high-grade bonds as the bottom position provides a buffer and stabilizes market fluctuations [14] Revaluation of Chinese Assets: Valuation洼地 Continually Attracts Foreign Capital Inflow - Global capital allocation has shifted to China this week, with foreign capital selling assets in the US, Japan, and South Korea and significantly increasing holdings in China [15] - From February 27 to March 27, China's market was more resilient than other global markets, with smaller declines [17] External Disturbances Desensitize, A-shares Return to Endogenous Logic - The marginal impact of the US-Iran conflict and Trump's "taco" on A-shares is gradually weakening, and the market has become "desensitized" [19] - As the conflict becomes clearer, external impacts are weakening, and the market's endogenous logic will gradually dominate pricing [21] - Focus on the AI chain with strong upward profit expectations and the new energy chain with energy substitution advantages [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is in a stage of strong supply and demand, with iron - water production and steel apparent demand rising. There is a strong cost support for steel, and one can participate in pulse - rebound bands for single - side trading. For the basis trading, focus on the opportunity of going long on the basis of hot - rolled coils [2]. - The silicon - iron and manganese - silicon market is in a range - bound state. The cost is supported by coal prices and manganese - ore supply issues, but the demand from steel mills recovers slowly, and there is supply pressure from new production capacity in the north [3]. - The coking coal and coke market is affected by the Middle - East situation. The spot prices are rising, and the first round of price increase for coke is expected to be implemented soon. The market is mainly concerned about the trend of the futures price, which is related to the price of crude oil [5]. - The iron - ore price is in a high - level range - bound state. It is difficult for the price to drop significantly in the short term due to the undetermined negotiation between Chinese mines and BHP, and it is also difficult to break through upwards because of high port inventories and oversupply in the year. It is not recommended to chase long or short, and one can operate according to the range - bound strategy [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On Tuesday, the steel spot market was weakly stable, with some varieties dropping slightly by 10 yuan, and the futures price fluctuated. Iron - water production recovered weekly, and the apparent demand of each variety also increased slightly. The industry has entered a stage of strong supply and demand. The apparent demand index of plates has reached the seasonal peak range, while there is still room for building materials. It is expected that the peak will be in April. The inventory of all steel varieties has started to decline. The inventory of building materials is not high, and the main pressure lies in hot - rolled coils. The cost of steel has strong support, and one can participate in single - side trading through pulse - rebound bands. After the recent decline in the basis, one can pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the basis or positive arbitrage, with hot - rolled coils being the best choice [2]. Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon - The impact of the geopolitical conflict on ferro - alloy varieties is mainly through sentiment, and the actual influence is limited. The rising coal price may support the cost. The power cost accounts for a relatively high proportion in silicon - iron and manganese - silicon production. Due to the typhoon in Australia, the shipment of some manganese - ore is blocked, which supports the cost of manganese - silicon. The demand from steel mills recovers slowly, and new production capacity in the north is gradually starting up, resulting in supply pressure. The futures market is driven by sentiment, but the spot market lags behind in price increase, and the basis is weakening. The current market is in a range - bound state, with the upper limit restricted by weak demand and increasing supply, and the lower limit supported by cost [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the coking - coal spot auctions have been fully successful, and the price has risen. The mainstream coking enterprises have proposed the first - round price increase, which is expected to be implemented soon. The port - traded quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke is 1500 (+30), and the quasi - first - class dry - quenched coke is 1700 (+30). The coking - coal price index is 1301.2 (+19.3). For Mongolian coal, the quotes of port - trading enterprises remain high, but the downstream enterprises' acceptance of high - priced Mongolian coal is limited, and some enterprises purchase in small quantities as needed. The customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu port is at a high level. On the futures side, the Middle - East situation dominates the market trend. The price of crude oil is oscillating around 90 US dollars, and the market is highly volatile. The market pricing has shifted from "out - of - control war" to "controllable war". The coking - coal and coke spot prices are driven by the futures market and have already priced in three rounds of price increases, while the first - round increase has just been proposed. If the crude oil price remains high or breaks through, the coking - coal price may further rise. Affected by the rising price of chemical by - products, the pressure for coke price increase is less than that for coking coal [5]. Iron - Ore - This week, the iron - ore price is in a high - level range - bound state. Due to the undetermined negotiation between Chinese mines and BHP, it is difficult for the price to drop significantly in the short term. Without new restrictive policies, it is also difficult for the price to break through upwards because of high port inventories and oversupply in the year. The news that BHP will replace its CEO on July 1 is worthy of attention. The current spot price is at a weak low level, and the 10C6 spot is already at a discount of 6 yuan compared with the 04 contract. It is not recommended to chase long on the iron - ore futures even though the coking - coal price rose strongly on Friday night. The price is more likely to be in a high - level range - bound state when the commodity sentiment is good. It is not recommended to chase high or short, and one can operate according to the range - bound strategy [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Steel: There is a stage of strong supply and demand. Spot and futures prices have rebounded, and the market sentiment is fair. Iron - water production has recovered weekly, and the apparent demand of each variety has also increased slightly. The inventory of steel products has started to decline. It is recommended to participate in the pulse - rebound band unilaterally, and pay attention to the opportunity of long - basis trading for hot - rolled coils [2]. - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: The market is in a range - bound state. Although the geopolitical conflict mainly affects the sentiment, the rising coal price may support the cost. The demand from steel mills recovers slowly, and the supply pressure is emerging. The futures market is strong due to sentiment, but the spot market lags behind, and the basis is weakening [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The spot prices of coking coal have risen across the board, and coke enterprises have proposed the first price increase. The futures market has started to make up for the increase. There is room for coking coal to rise further under the high - oil - price premise, but the development of the war is uncertain. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the Strait resumes navigation [5]. - Iron Ore: The price is in a high - level range - bound state. It is difficult for the price to decline significantly in the short term due to the undetermined negotiation between Chinese mines and BHP, and it is also difficult to break through upwards due to high port inventory and oversupply. It is not recommended to chase long or short, and it is advisable to operate according to the range - bound strategy [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Price and Market Situation: On March 23, the closing prices of far - month and near - month contracts of various steel products and their changes are shown in the table. The spot prices of Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou threaded steel, as well as other related products, also have corresponding changes [1]. - Supply and Demand: Iron - water production has recovered after the end of the previous production restriction, and the apparent demand of each variety has increased slightly. The industry has entered a stage of strong supply and demand. The apparent demand of plate products has reached the seasonal peak range, while that of building materials still has room to rise, with the peak expected in April. The inventory of steel products has started to decline, with the main pressure on hot - rolled coils [2]. - Investment Suggestion: Unilaterally, it is recommended to wait and see or choose the opportunity to participate in short - term long positions. When the spread between hot - rolled coils and threaded steel reaches over 175, take profit. Gradually intervene in the opportunity of long - basis trading for hot - rolled coils [6]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Cost and Market: The cost of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is affected by coal prices and power costs. Due to the typhoon in Australia, the shipment of some manganese ores is blocked, which supports the cost of manganese silicon. The demand from steel mills recovers slowly, and the supply pressure is emerging. The futures market is strong due to sentiment, but the spot market lags behind, and the basis is weakening [3]. - Investment Suggestion: Temporarily wait and see [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - Price and Market Situation: The spot prices of coking coal have risen across the board, and coke enterprises have proposed the first price increase. The futures market has started to make up for the increase, and the current futures price has priced in three rounds of price increases, corresponding to a cost increase of over 70. The funds have significantly increased their positions in coking coal on Monday [5]. - Investment Suggestion: Unilaterally, temporarily wait and see. The long - basis trading positions can enter the market [6]. Iron Ore - Price and Market Situation: The price of iron ore is in a high - level range - bound state. It is difficult for the price to decline significantly in the short term due to the undetermined negotiation between Chinese mines and BHP, and it is also difficult to break through upwards due to high port inventory and oversupply. The spot price is currently at a weak low level [6]. - Investment Suggestion: Wait and see [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The European container shipping line has passed the first stage after the US - Iran conflict, with the main logic gradually returning to supply - demand pricing, though sentiment is still affected by geopolitical changes [1] - In April, cargo volume is expected to gradually increase as work resumes, but there may be cargo volume pressure due to the end of rush - exports of products like photovoltaic, along with potential downward pressure on freight rates [1] - With the geopolitical conflict not cooling down, shipping companies are more likely to raise and maintain prices, and the subsequent quotation of other shipping companies should be monitored [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - EC2604: Latest成交价 is 1944 points, with a latest涨跌幅 of - 0.64%,成交量 is 27497 (a 3062 increase),持仓量单边 is 17770 (a 2145 decrease),多单持仓 is 10876,空单持仓 is 11883, and净多持仓 is - 1007 [2] - EC2606: Latest成交价 is 2422.3 points, with a latest涨跌幅 of 0.55%,成交量 is 11230 (a 2239 increase), and持仓量单边 is 13836 (a 245 increase) [2] - EC2608: Latest成交价 is 2377 points, with a latest涨跌幅 of - 0.97%,成交量 is 956 (a 401 increase), and持仓量单边 is 2814 (a 74 increase) [2] - EC2610: Latest成交价 is 1569.8 points, with a latest涨跌幅 of - 0.46%,成交量 is 2498 (a 502 increase), and持仓量单边 is 7521 (a 112 decrease) [2] - EC2612: Latest成交价 is 1758.7 points, with a latest涨跌幅 of 0.30%,成交量 is 146 (an 83 increase), and持仓量单边 is 436 (a 22 increase) [2] - Total成交量 is 42327, and total持仓量单边 is 42377, with a net long position of - 1007 [2] Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - SCFIS (weekly): The latest value is 1556.49 points, with a环比涨跌幅 of 0.7%, the previous value was 1545.46 points (a 5.6% increase), and the value before that was 1463.4 points (a - 7.0% decrease) [4] - SCFI ($/TEU, weekly): The latest value is $1636, with a环比涨跌幅 of 1.1%, the previous value was $1618 (an 11.4% increase), and the value before that was $1452 (a 2.3% increase) [4] - TCI (20GP, daily): The latest value is $1925, with a环比涨跌幅 of 0.0%, the previous value was $1925 (a 3.0% increase), and the value before that was $1869 (a - 5.3% decrease) [4] - TCI (40GP, daily): The latest value is $3241, with a环比涨跌幅 of 0.0%, the previous value was $3241 (a 3.5% increase), and the value before that was $3133 (a - 4.1% decrease) [4] Basis Spread - The previous trading day's basis was - 387.51 points, and the day before that was - 358.51 points, with a环比变化 of - 29 points [6]

Oil Price Outlook - Geopolitical tensions and potential shipping constraints in the Strait of Hormuz could push Brent crude oil prices above $100 per barrel[4] - Recent fluctuations saw Brent crude rise to nearly $120 per barrel before retreating to over $80 due to expectations of conflict resolution and potential coordinated oil reserve releases by the G7[4] - Current oil prices have rebounded to around $90 per barrel, reflecting ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and market reassessments[4] Market Predictions - Short-term oil prices are expected to rise above $100 per barrel due to geopolitical risk premiums and shipping bottlenecks[6] - In the event of a formal resolution to conflicts, oil prices could stabilize between $60 and $70 per barrel as risk premiums dissipate[6] - If regional instability persists, oil prices may remain elevated in the $80 to $90 per barrel range due to ongoing supply disruptions and transportation uncertainties[6] Shipping and Transportation - Daily shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely limited, with only 2 to 4 vessels passing daily, indicating significant operational disruptions[7] - On March 8, no vessels were recorded passing through the Strait, highlighting the extent of shipping constraints due to security concerns[7] - The distribution of vessels near the Strait shows a high concentration of anchored or drifting ships, further emphasizing the impact of ongoing tensions on maritime traffic[9]

Group 1: Coal Industry - Morgan Stanley suggests that coal and aluminum sectors are likely to outperform the market in the short term, recommending investment in quality mining companies during dips [1] - The coal sector's strong performance is supported by rising coal price expectations and low investor positions, with Yanzhou Coal Mining Company being particularly sensitive to coal price changes [1] - On March 3, coal stocks in China's A-shares rose by 2%-9%, while Hong Kong stocks experienced a slight decline of 1%, driven by increased demand for coal due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2] Group 2: Aluminum Industry - Despite a market sell-off leading to a 2%-4% drop in aluminum stocks, the supply disruption risk in the aluminum sector is underestimated, with the Middle East accounting for 6.8 million tons of annual aluminum production [3] - If there is a significant supply disruption in the Middle East, aluminum prices could rise rapidly to $4,000 per ton, making it one of the most asymmetric commodities in terms of price increase potential [3] Group 3: Copper Industry - Copper stocks fell by 4%-9% due to investor risk aversion, but the fundamental outlook remains strong, with a projected supply shortage of 130,000 tons in the global copper market by 2026 [4] - Despite a current inventory of 1.2 million tons, the demand from the U.S. and China could put significant pressure on global copper stocks, especially if both countries begin restocking [4] Group 4: Lithium Industry - The lithium sector faced significant pressure, with carbonate lithium prices dropping by 12% to 151,000 yuan per ton, and lithium stocks declining by 6%-11% [5] - Factors contributing to the weakness include concerns over delays in large-scale energy storage projects, a decline in February's electric vehicle sales, and expectations of resumed lithium concentrate exports from Zimbabwe [5]

Summary of Oil Market Commentary Industry Overview - The commentary focuses on the oil market, specifically Brent crude oil prices, which are currently hovering around $72 per barrel, reflecting geopolitical risk premiums associated with ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - Oil prices have shown a slight upward trend, indicating a market in a state of cautious observation, with geopolitical risks already factored into current pricing [1]. - The recent performance of Brent crude oil has been strong, with prices rising approximately since the opening of trading a week ago, highlighting market sensitivity to developments in geopolitical situations [1]. - The upcoming diplomatic negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are expected to increase pressure, with the Iranian Foreign Minister set to meet with U.S. envoy Steve Vitkoff [2]. - Despite ongoing diplomatic channels, signals from Washington indicate that military action plans are still in motion, complicating the political landscape [2]. - The potential for a large-scale conflict in the Middle East before the midterm elections poses risks for the U.S. administration, as rising oil prices could negatively impact voters [2]. - The current geopolitical situation does not necessarily predict war as the baseline scenario; however, heightened military deployments and market expectations could lead to escalated tensions [2]. Additional Important Content - The oil spot market structure reflects a degree of supply tightness, with Brent crude futures maintaining their position, although the price spread for near-month contracts has narrowed compared to January highs [2]. - In the options market, the skew for call options remains elevated, indicating that market participants are hedging against the risk of rising oil prices [2].

Group 1 - The oil sector has collectively surged due to escalating tensions between the US and Iran, leading to higher oil prices and a significant increase in VLCC freight rates during the Spring Festival holiday [1] - Zhongyou Securities noted that the unclear situation between the US and Iran has granted crude oil a geopolitical premium, with expectations of marginal improvement in the supply-demand dynamics for PX and PTA this year [1] - The price spread between PX (China's main port) and naphtha (Japan) has stabilized around $300/ton after adjustments, with potential for further strengthening post-holiday [1] Group 2 - As of February 24, 2026, the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) rose sharply by 5.83%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Potential Hengxin (up 16.23%), China Oil Engineering (up 10.13%), and Blue Flame Holdings (up 10.04%) [1] - The oil ETF Penghua (159697) increased by 5.97%, with the latest price reported at 1.42 yuan, closely tracking the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index [1] - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index accounted for 66.76% of the index, including major companies like China National Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil, and Sinopec [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Maintain a bullish view on precious metals, especially gold, while advising caution when participating in silver due to high speculative demand and increased volatility [1] - For black industry commodities, expect a slightly higher opening followed by a volatile trend, and recommend a wait - and - see approach [2][3] - For agricultural products, different varieties have different trends. For example, soybeans are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to export and production; corn is expected to be volatile in the short - term; oils and fats are expected to be weak; sugar is expected to be in a range - bound pattern; cotton can be bought on dips; eggs and hogs are expected to be weak [4][5] - For energy and chemical products, different products have different trading strategies. For example, LLDPE, PP, and EB are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, PX can be multi - allocated in the medium - term, PTA can take profit appropriately, MEG can be considered for phased long positions, and for crude oil, it is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options on SC04 [6][7][8] Summary by Directory Gold Market - Market performance: During the Spring Festival, gold prices first declined and then rose, with an over 2% single - day increase on February 20. Silver prices also rebounded after hitting the bottom, with a more than 7% single - day increase and breaking through $87 per ounce on Monday [1] - Fundamentals: Geopolitical premiums increased due to Trump's statement on military strikes and previous events. Policy uncertainties and trade - war concerns led to an influx of safe - haven funds. There were changes in gold and silver inventories and ETF holdings [1] - Trading strategy: Maintain a bullish view on precious metals, especially gold, and advise caution for silver [1] Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The rebar main contract 2605 closed at 3055 yuan/ton on the last trading day before the festival, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [2] - Fundamentals: The supply - demand contradiction of steel is not significant. The inventory of billets increased significantly during the festival. The valuation of rebar and hot - rolled coils is differentiated. External news is slightly positive [2] - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with the reference range for RB05 being 3040 - 3100 [2] Iron Ore - Market performance: The iron ore main contract 2605 closed at 746 yuan/ton on the last trading day before the festival, down 13.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. Singapore swaps fell 1.3% to $96 per ton during the holiday [2] - Fundamentals: The supply - demand of iron ore is neutral. The iron - water output is basically the same year - on - year. The port inventory is close to 1.7 billion tons, and the structural contradiction persists. External news is slightly positive [2] - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with the reference range for I05 being 735 - 765 [3] Coking Coal - Market performance: The coking coal main contract 2605 closed at 1121 yuan/ton on the last trading day before the festival, unchanged from the previous night - session closing price [3] - Fundamentals: Steel mills' profits are poor, and the blast - furnace output may decline slightly. The first round of price increases has been implemented, and there are no further plans. The overall inventory level is neutral, and the futures valuation is high. External news is slightly positive [3] - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with the reference range for JM05 being 1090 - 1140 [3] Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market performance: The CBOT soybeans fell overnight, and there are concerns about US soybean exports [4] - Fundamentals: There is an expected bumper harvest in South America on the supply side. On the demand side, US soybean crushing is strong, but there are potential concerns about exports due to tariff policies. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose [4] - Trading strategy: US soybeans will enter a volatile period, and attention should be paid to exports and South American production. The domestic market is also expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to customs policies and South American production [4] Corn - Market performance: The corn spot price rose slightly during the Spring Festival compared with before the festival [4] - Fundamentals: The grain - selling progress has exceeded 60%, and the pressure is not large. However, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of ground - stored grain after the temperature rises. Downstream enterprises' inventories are at the same level as the same period, and the port inventories are low, but the downstream is in a loss state, and the enthusiasm for building inventories after the festival may be low [4] - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term as the purchase and sale have not fully recovered [4] Oils and Fats - Market performance: The Malaysian palm oil is in a weak seasonal period in the short - term [4] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the Malaysian production in January decreased by 14% month - on - month. On the demand side, the export improved month - on - month, but ITS estimated that the export from February 1 - 20 decreased by 9% month - on - month. The supply - demand is weak in this stage [4] - Trading strategy: Oils and fats are weak. The resonance of the end of the weak seasonal production reduction and the biodiesel expectation is weakened. An anti - arbitrage structure strategy can be adopted. Attention should be paid to future production and biodiesel policies [4] Sugar - Market performance: The raw sugar first fell and then rose during the Spring Festival, and is in a range - bound pattern [4] - Fundamentals: Internationally, the pricing of the northern hemisphere's production increase has been completed. The domestic supply is more abundant, and the industrial inventory is expected to reach the highest level in recent years after March. However, it is affected by storage and quota policies [4] - Trading strategy: The price will maintain a range - bound pattern between 5000 - 5300 yuan/ton [4] Cotton - Market performance: The ICE US cotton futures price rose and then fell overnight, and the international crude oil futures price fluctuated upward [5] - Fundamentals: Internationally, there are concerns about tariff policies, which may affect global cotton exports. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price maintained an upward trend before the Spring Festival, and there was strong buying support below. The domestic spot basis was supported, and the sales progress slowed down before the festival [5] - Trading strategy: Buy on dips, with the price range reference of 14600 - 15000 yuan/ton [5] Eggs - Market performance: The egg spot price decreased during the Spring Festival compared with before the festival [5] - Fundamentals: After the Spring Festival, it is the traditional off - season for egg demand. The overall supply is sufficient, and the egg price is expected to be low [5] - Trading strategy: The demand is weakening, and the futures price is expected to be volatile and weak. Industrial customers are advised to pay attention to hedging opportunities when the price is high [5] Hogs - Market performance: The national hog price mostly decreased during the Spring Festival compared with before the festival, with a larger decline in the north and stability in the south [5] - Fundamentals: According to the seasonal pattern, the slaughter volume will increase after the festival, and the supply is strong while the demand is weak. The spot and futures prices are expected to be weak [5] - Trading strategy: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to be volatile and weak [5] Energy and Chemical LLDPE - Market performance: The LLDPE main contract fluctuated slightly before the festival. The spot price in North China was 6530 yuan/ton, and the basis was weak. The overseas price was stable, and the import window was closed [6] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, there are no new device productions in the first half of the year, and the domestic supply pressure eases. The import volume is expected to decrease slightly. On the demand side, the downstream is on holiday, and the demand is weak, but there will be a peak demand season in March and April [6] - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the inventory has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand is weak. Due to the sharp rise in crude oil during the holiday, it is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, but the upward space is limited by the import window. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran event [6] PX and PTA - Market performance: The CFR PTA price in China was $926 per ton, and the East China spot price of PTA was 5180 yuan/ton before the festival, with a spot basis of - 73 yuan/ton [6] - Fundamentals: The overall supply of PX is at a historical high level. The supply of PTA is at a medium level. The polyester factory load is at a seasonal low, and the inventory pressure is not large. The profit of polyester products has improved. The supply - demand of PX and PTA accumulates inventory [6] - Trading strategy: Maintain a long - term multi - allocation view on PX and pay attention to buying opportunities. PTA accumulates inventory seasonally, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern improves. The processing fee has reached a high level, and appropriate profit - taking is recommended [6][7] PP - Market performance: The PP main contract fluctuated slightly before the festival. The spot price in East China was 6550 yuan/ton, and the basis was weak. The overseas price was stable, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [7] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the new device production decreases in the first half of the year, and the domestic supply gradually increases. On the demand side, the downstream is on holiday, and the start - up rate is low, and it will gradually resume work after the Lantern Festival [7] - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the inventory has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand is weak. Due to the sharp rise in crude oil during the holiday, it is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, but the upward space is limited by the import window. In the long - term, the new device production decreases in the first half of the year, and the supply - demand pattern improves slightly but the contradiction is still large. It is recommended to short on rallies [7] MEG - Market performance: The East China spot price of MEG was 3675 yuan/ton before the festival, with a spot basis of - 105 yuan/ton [7] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the supply pressure eases. The inventory in some East China ports has accumulated to about 900,000 tons. The polyester load decreases seasonally, and the inventory pressure is not large. MEG accumulates inventory in February and reduces inventory in March [7] - Trading strategy: The inventory accumulation is fully expected, and it may start to reduce inventory in March. The current valuation is low, and attention should be paid to phased long - position opportunities [7] Crude Oil - Market performance: During the Spring Festival, the focus of foreign - market trading was on the US - Iran relationship. The oil price first fell and then rose [7] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the supply pressure of Russian oil increases, and the short - term core influence is the US - Iran geopolitical risk. In the medium - term, the supply pressure is large. On the demand side, the heating demand in the US increased in February but will decline in March, and the gasoline demand is in the off - season [7] - Trading strategy: Although the fundamentals are in surplus, the current trading focus is on the US - Iran geopolitical risk, with high uncertainty. It is recommended to wait for the oil price to reach a high point and buy out - of - the - money put options on SC04 [7] Styrene - Market performance: The styrene main contract fluctuated slightly before the festival. The spot price in East China was 7570 yuan/ton, and the trading atmosphere was average. The overseas price rose slightly, and the import window was closed [7][8] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the pure - benzene inventory is at a normal - to - high level, and the supply - demand pattern will improve in February and March. The styrene inventory accumulates during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand is weak in February and March. On the demand side, the downstream enterprises' finished - product inventory is high, and the start - up rate is low, and it will resume work after the Lantern Festival [7][8] - Trading strategy: In the short - term, due to the slight accumulation of pure - benzene inventory, the marginal improvement of supply - demand, and the sharp rise in crude oil during the holiday, it is expected to be slightly stronger. In the long - term, it is recommended to go long on styrene on dips in the second quarter [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Oil stocks experienced a significant decline in early trading, influenced by falling crude oil prices and rising U.S. oil inventories [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Sinopec (00386) fell by 4.06%, trading at HKD 5.43 [1] - PetroChina (00857) decreased by 3.28%, trading at HKD 9.15 [1] - CNOOC Services (601808) (02883) dropped by 3.06%, trading at HKD 9.49 [1] - CNOOC (00883) declined by 2.79%, trading at HKD 24.42 [1] Group 2: Oil Price Movement - WTI crude oil futures fell by 2.77%, closing at USD 62.84 per barrel [1] - Brent crude oil futures decreased by 2.71%, closing at USD 67.52 per barrel [1] Group 3: Market Influences - U.S. President Trump emphasized the necessity of reaching an agreement with Iran, warning of severe consequences if negotiations fail [1] - Trump expressed hope for a deal with Iran within approximately one month [1] - The latest EIA data indicated a surge in U.S. crude oil inventories by 8.53 million barrels, marking the largest weekly increase since January of the previous year [1] Group 4: Analyst Insights - A senior researcher at Galaxy Futures noted that the market's trading logic has shifted from "geopolitical priority" back to "supply-demand priority" [1] - Substantial growth in inventories, unexpected production increases from OPEC+, and weakening demand are expected to suppress the upward potential of oil prices [1]