Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the fuel oil market showed a fluctuating trend. Recent geopolitical disturbances have provided support through geopolitical premiums, but the expected increase in Middle - East production has limited the upside potential of oil prices. Overall, despite the pressure on the international crude oil market, fuel oil is supported by geopolitical premiums and high spot premiums [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: The main fuel oil contract FU2601 closed at 2,796 yuan/ton this week, up 79 yuan/ton or 2.91% from the previous trading week's settlement price. The highest price was 2,848 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2,766 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 2,551,108 lots and an open interest of 221,820 lots, a decrease of 8,617 lots [3]. - **Variety Price**: The fuel oil futures contract prices showed an inverse market pattern with near - term prices higher than long - term prices [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: The fuel oil spot market was weak this week. The current basis level was in the lower range of recent months, indicating greater price pressure in the spot market compared to the futures market. The current spot market supply is very loose, and sellers are willing to sell at prices lower than the futures price [8]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 19, 2025, the total fuel oil futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 127,140 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. All these warehouse receipts were in bonded warehouses [11]. 3.3 Influencing Factors The fuel oil benchmark price was 5,450 yuan/ton, up nearly 1.2% compared to the beginning of the month. The 380CST fuel oil benchmark price was 438 US dollars/ton, up 0.9% compared to the beginning of the month [12]. 3.4 Market Outlook Overall, the fuel oil market showed a fluctuating trend in the game between crude oil cost drivers and its own fundamentals. High basis and geopolitical premiums were the main features of the market. Despite the pressure on the international crude oil market, fuel oil was supported by geopolitical premiums and high spot premiums, with relatively limited decline. The significant decline in inventories in Singapore and Fujairah provided some support, but the expected increase in Middle - East production and weak global demand limited the upside potential. In the future, attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff policies, Fed monetary policies, geopolitical situations, and crude oil price fluctuations [13].

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is expected to experience wide fluctuations due to geopolitical premiums and high refinery crack spreads, despite a downward trend in refined oil demand and the possibility of OPEC increasing production [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Geopolitical premiums and high refinery activity are currently supporting the oil market [1] - There is a prevailing expectation of weaker supply and demand in the medium term, which is putting pressure on oil prices [1] Group 2: OPEC Influence - OPEC may consider further production increases in its upcoming meeting, which could lead to downward pressure on oil prices [1] - The market sentiment indicates that low inventories in major pricing regions and frequent geopolitical events are supporting current oil prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are expected to experience wide fluctuations due to multiple influencing factors, including geopolitical premiums, high refinery crack spreads supporting high operating rates, and potential OPEC production increases, alongside downward expectations for refined oil demand [1] Group 1: Influencing Factors - Geopolitical premiums and high refinery crack spreads are supporting high operating rates [1] - OPEC may continue to increase production, which could put downward pressure on oil prices [1] - Low inventory issues in major pricing regions and frequent geopolitical events are supporting the market [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - There is a consensus on weakening supply and demand expectations in the medium term [1] - The potential for OPEC to push for a second phase of production increases during the upcoming meeting may further pressure oil prices [1] - Overall, the market is expected to remain in a state of wide fluctuations [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices are expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern. Upside is constrained by weakening marginal demand, while downside is supported by short - term geopolitical premiums. Supply - side factors and demand - side concerns, along with the uncertainty of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, lead to a lack of continuous impetus in the capital market [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - On August 19, the closing price of the domestic SC crude oil futures main contract was 484.2 yuan/barrel, down 0.47% from the previous trading day. The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures remained flat at $62.58/barrel and $66.46/barrel respectively. The spreads of SC to Brent and WTI narrowed by $0.35. The SC continuous - to - third spread changed from contango to backwardation, with a decline of 268.18% [2]. 2. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes Supply - Geopolitical conflicts and producer policies dominate supply disruptions. Oil transportation from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Russian Friendship Pipeline was briefly interrupted. Angola plans to cut exports to 994,000 barrels per day in October. The Volgograd refinery of Russia's Lukoil was suspended due to an attack, which may suppress Russia's refined oil export capacity. India's July imports of Russian crude oil decreased, but state - owned refineries turned to Middle Eastern or American oil sources, which may indirectly support OPEC+ export shares [3]. Demand - The seasonal demand peak is nearing its end. The decline in US API gasoline inventories narrowed (- 956,000 barrels), and refined oil inventories increased, indicating weakening travel demand. The US natural gas price dropped to a nine - month low, which may suppress the demand for fuel oil for power generation. The refinery operating rate increased marginally, but its support for oil prices was limited [3]. Inventory - US API data showed that in the week ending August 15, crude oil inventories decreased by 2.417 million barrels (expected to decrease by 1.587 million barrels), the decline in Cushing inventories narrowed to 112,000 barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 535,000 barrels. The domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange's crude oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4.767 million barrels, with no short - term delivery pressure [3]. 3. Price Trend Judgment - Crude oil prices will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern. The upside is limited by weakening marginal demand, and the downside is supported by short - term geopolitical premiums. Supply - side factors such as infrastructure attacks and OPEC+ production cuts provide bottom support, while demand - side issues like seasonal weakness in US gasoline consumption and India's import structure adjustment raise doubts about the actual digestion capacity of the market. The repeated expectations of Russia - Ukraine peace talks intensify market wait - and - see sentiment [4]. 4. Industry Chain Price Monitoring Crude Oil - Futures prices of SC, WTI, and Brent changed on August 19 compared to August 18. Spot prices of various crude oil types also had different changes. Spreads such as SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI had corresponding fluctuations. Other assets like the US dollar index, S&P 500, DAX index, and RMB exchange rate also showed changes. Inventory data of US commercial crude oil, Cushing inventories, and strategic reserves had different trends, and the US refinery operating rate and crude oil processing volume also changed [6]. Fuel Oil - Futures prices of FU, LU, and NYMEX fuel oil, as well as spot prices of various fuel oil types, had different changes. Spreads such as Singapore's high - low sulfur spread and China's high - low sulfur spread also fluctuated. Inventory data of Platts and various regions' fuel oil had corresponding trends [7]. 5. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation Supply - India's imports of Russian crude oil decreased in July. The oil supply from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Russian Friendship Pipeline was briefly interrupted. The US plans to increase tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil. Angola will cut oil exports to 994,000 barrels per day in October. The Volgograd refinery of Russia's Lukoil was attacked and suspended operations [8][9][10]. Demand - Sinopec (Henan) Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. increased its registered capital from 10 million RMB to about 1.84 billion RMB, with an increase of 18334% [11]. Inventory - US API inventory data for the week ending August 15 showed changes in crude oil, refined oil, gasoline, and other inventories. US natural gas futures dropped to a nine - month low. Domestic crude oil futures prices fluctuated slightly, and the warehouse receipts of various futures remained unchanged [12][13]. Market Information - The US has held separate peace talks with some European countries and Ukraine about the Russia - Ukraine issue, but direct talks between Russia and Ukraine have not taken place, and the cease - fire agreement has not made actual progress. Oil prices are expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations [14]. 6. Industry Chain Data Charts - The content provides various data charts related to the oil industry, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent contracts, the spread between SC and WTI, US crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, refinery operating rates, and inventory data [15][17][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Views - Crude oil's current fundamentals are fair, but the outlook is weak, with the cost center likely to decline further in Q4 [11][15] - In H1 2025, the fuel oil market was significantly affected by geopolitical and macro - factors, with negative feedback on the high - sulfur end [11][26] - In H2 2025, the fuel oil market faces rebalancing, and structural factors still exist [11][51] - Refinery demand is under pressure; attention should be paid to demand improvement after economic viability returns [11][51] - Summer power generation demand is strong, and the substitution effect persists [11][74] - Bunker fuel demand still faces tariff risks, and the trend of consumption structure change continues [11][83] - High - sulfur fuel oil still has structural support, but OPEC's production increase has marginal negative impacts [11][102] - Low - sulfur fuel oil still has relatively abundant surplus capacity, and domestic production is expected to increase marginally [11][112] - High - sulfur fuel oil valuation still has room for correction, and the medium - term outlook for low - sulfur fuel oil remains weak [11][129] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil Market - In H1 2025, international oil prices fluctuated due to geopolitical and macro - factors. The initial price increase was followed by a decline, and then another sharp drop and rebound. The main influencing factors included US sanctions on Russia, Trump's policies, tariff conflicts, and the Israel - Iran conflict [15][16][17] - Currently, the crude oil market's fundamentals are fair, but in Q4, it is expected to enter a supply - surplus phase as OPEC's production increases and the peak demand season ends, leading to a potential weakening of cost support for downstream products [18] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Market - In H1 2025, high - sulfur fuel oil was affected by sanctions on Iran and Russia, refinery disruptions in Russia, and increased demand from power generation and countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia. However, high prices led to negative feedback, with reduced refinery demand and increased simple refinery production [27][28] - Refinery demand for high - sulfur fuel oil has declined this year due to high raw material costs and policy changes. If the cracking spread adjusts and profit margins improve, refinery procurement may increase, but China's import demand may not fully recover [51][54] - In Q3, power generation demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by seasonality and natural gas substitution, but OPEC's production increase and early procurement in Egypt may limit the upside. Demand is expected to decline significantly in Q4 [74][75] - Bunker fuel demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is affected by tariff risks. Although there was a short - term increase in Q2, the long - term outlook remains uncertain [83] - High - sulfur fuel oil has structural support from refinery upgrades and tight heavy - oil supply. However, OPEC's production increase has marginal negative impacts [102][103] - In H2, high - sulfur fuel oil needs an increase in other demand sources for market rebalancing. Refinery demand recovery is expected, but it depends on cracking spread adjustment [7][129] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Market - In H1 2025, the low - sulfur fuel oil market was less volatile than the high - sulfur market. It was affected by tariff policies, regional demand changes, and refinery production adjustments. The market structure was relatively stable [29] - Low - sulfur fuel oil has abundant surplus capacity, and supply is mainly regulated by profit margins. Global and domestic production capacity can meet demand. Domestic production is expected to increase after the end of the refinery maintenance season [112][113] - Low - sulfur fuel oil's demand is at risk due to tariff policies and faces substitution by other fuels. The medium - term outlook is weak, but the downward drive is limited due to its low valuation [8][129] Strategies - High - sulfur: Oscillate weakly - Low - sulfur: Oscillate weakly - Cross - variety: Short the FU cracking spread (FU - Brent or FU - SC) on rallies - Cross - term: Short the FU2509 - FU2510 spread on rallies - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [9]

Group 1: Oil Market Performance - Domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract showed a significant decline, closing down 8.13% at 508.6 yuan/barrel after reaching a high of 516.8 yuan/barrel and a low of 500.2 yuan/barrel [1] - Fuel oil main contract fell 5.96% to 3015 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil main contract dropped 2.85% to 3716 yuan/ton [1] - The geopolitical situation has led to a reduction in speculative long positions, contributing to the decline in oil prices [1] Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The geopolitical risk index has risen significantly due to Middle Eastern conflicts, increasing the risk premium in the oil futures market [2] - Despite a decrease in geopolitical tensions, concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East persist, maintaining strong demand for immediate supply [1][2] - U.S. manufacturing data shows marginal improvement, with the Market Manufacturing PMI at 52%, indicating ongoing industrial expansion [2] Group 3: Inventory and Supply Dynamics - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a decrease in U.S. crude oil and distillate inventories, with crude oil stocks down by 4.23 million barrels, indicating limited supply pressure during the consumption peak [2] - Gasoline inventories increased by 764,000 barrels, exceeding analyst expectations [2] - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, while U.S. crude oil production remains at a historical high of 13.431 million barrels per day [4] Group 4: Market Outlook and Recommendations - Analysts suggest cautious trading strategies, recommending light positions in crude oil put options due to ongoing geopolitical risks [3] - The market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, influenced by geopolitical developments and supply-demand dynamics [3][4] - The potential for supply disruptions is increasing, and close monitoring of geopolitical changes is advised [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the risk of supply disruption has significantly weakened, but the arrival of the summer demand peak season may limit the speed of oil price decline. The Middle - East situation and the realization of the Northern Hemisphere's peak oil demand season in the next week need to be closely monitored [2][3]. - The market may fluctuate between supply disruptions and slowing demand, leading to high - level oscillations in oil prices. However, caution should be exercised regarding the risk of decline triggered by macro - economic factors. SC crude oil may show differentiation from international oil prices due to domestic factors, but the sharp drop at the close indicates a possible shift in market sentiment [69]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Price Movements**: As of June 23, 2025, the SC crude oil futures price rebounded slightly from 566.6 yuan/barrel to 574.5 yuan/barrel, a 1.39% increase, but dropped 5.65% to 538 yuan/barrel in the night session. WTI and Brent tumbled 9.2% and 9.82% to 67.23 dollars/barrel and 69.73 dollars/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread strengthened 559.35% to 10.22 dollars/barrel, the SC - WTI spread widened 163.35% to 12.72 dollars/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread narrowed 23.78% to 2.5 dollars/barrel [2]. - **Supply**: Trump's post on social media stating that Israel and Iran had agreed to a cease - fire led to the first round of crude oil price decline, with overnight prices dropping over 5% [2]. - **Demand**: Demand showed regional differentiation. India's crude oil imports in May increased 5.9% year - on - year to 23.3 million tons, and diesel and gasoline exports rose 9.7% and 13.7% respectively. However, demand concerns emerged in Europe and Southeast Asia. Refinery profits also varied, with China's diesel crack spread remaining at a high of 15 dollars/barrel in May, while the seasonal accumulation of US gasoline inventories pressured the crack spread [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory dimension presented contradictory signals. The warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil at the Shanghai Energy Exchange remained at 4.029 million barrels, and those of low - sulfur fuel oil and fuel oil were 0 tons and 22,800 tons respectively, suggesting limited physical delivery pressure in China [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: Futures prices of SC, WTI, and Brent changed, with SC rising, and WTI and Brent falling. Spot prices of various crude oil types also had different changes. Spreads such as SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI showed significant movements. Other assets like the US dollar index, S&P 500, DAX index, and RMB exchange rate also had corresponding changes. In terms of inventory, US commercial crude oil, Cushing, and API inventories decreased, while the strategic reserve inventory increased slightly. US refinery weekly operating rates and crude oil processing volumes declined [5]. - **Fuel Oil**: Futures prices of FU, LU, and NYMEX fuel oil changed, with some rising and some falling. Spot prices of different fuel oil types also had various changes. Spreads such as the Singapore and Chinese high - low sulfur spreads changed, and inventory in Singapore decreased [6]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: On June 23, Venezuela's second - largest refinery shut down due to a power outage. Multiple foreign oil companies in Iraq evacuated staff, and Russia's Rosneft will suspend production at the Sakhalin - 1 project in August for maintenance. Thailand considered banning oil and electricity supply to Cambodia [7][8]. - **Demand**: Spain's national airline suspended flights to Doha on June 23, and Israel's Ben - Gurion Airport will resume limited flight operations [8]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts of low - sulfur fuel oil, medium - sulfur crude oil, and fuel oil remained unchanged [9]. - **Market Information**: As of 2:30, the main contracts of Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, and SC crude oil had different price changes. Brazil's national oil company did not plan to raise fuel prices for now. The LPG main contract fell 2.00%. Some companies' stock prices and project progress were also reported [9]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices and spreads, US and global oil production, refinery operating rates, and inventory data from different regions [13][15][17] etc.

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The short - term pig price may have a small - scale rebound, but in the long - term, it will maintain a weak trend due to the supply - demand imbalance [1][2]. - The sugar price will stop falling and rebound in the short - term but will be in a weak oscillation in the medium - to - long - term as the global sugar market is expected to be in surplus [3][4]. - The crude oil price will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, but will decline in the long - term as the supply increases and demand is restricted [5][7]. - PVC will run strongly in the short - term due to the impact of the Israel - Iran conflict, but its price may face pressure in the long - term as its supply - demand fundamentals are not strong [8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Pig - **Supply**: As of June 20, the average weight of national pig slaughter was 123.78kg, down 0.18kg from the previous week. Due to policy and temperature factors, scale enterprises are accelerating the weight reduction of pigs [1]. - **Demand**: On June 20, the slaughtering rate was 28.13%, slightly up from the previous week. However, consumer demand for pork is low in summer, limiting the further increase of the slaughtering rate [1]. - **Strategy**: The short - term view is a continued rise, the medium - term view is a weak operation after a phased rebound, and the recommended strategy is to sell short on rallies [1][2]. Sugar - **International**: Tensions in the Middle East have pushed up oil prices, increasing the proportion of Brazilian sugar mills producing ethanol and reducing sugar supply. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of May increased year - on - year. India is expected to have a large increase in production in the new season, and Thailand is expected to produce 1005 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season [3]. - **Domestic**: As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production was 11.16 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons year - on - year. The cumulative sugar sales were 8.11 million tons, an increase of 1.52 million tons year - on - year. The sales progress was 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year. Imported sugar is expected to increase in the future [4]. - **Strategy**: The short - term view is a stable rebound, the medium - term view is a weak oscillation, and the recommended strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options [3][4]. Crude Oil - **Supply**: The US's raid on Iranian nuclear facilities has escalated the Middle East situation. Although the probability of Iran completely blocking the Strait of Hormuz is low, there is a risk of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel. Non - OPEC resources are expected to expand, and OPEC+ is maintaining a production - increasing strategy [5][6]. - **Demand**: In the US, the refinery operating rate has returned to normal levels, but the downstream demand is poor. In China, the operating rate of major refineries is approaching 80%, and the gasoline consumption has slightly improved, while diesel demand has decreased [6]. - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventories have declined for four consecutive weeks, while fuel inventories have increased for three consecutive weeks. Oil inventories are expected to accumulate, suppressing the upside of oil prices [6]. - **Strategy**: The short - term view is high - level fluctuations, the medium - term view is a downward - pressured operation, and the recommended strategy is a combination of short futures positions and buying call options [5][7]. PVC - **Cost**: The supply of calcium carbide in the northwest region is tightening, and the demand from downstream is weakening. As of June 23, the price of calcium carbide in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia remained flat [8]. - **Supply**: The 200,000 - ton/year PVC device of Haohua stopped production last week. As of June 20, the weekly operating rate of the PVC industry was 78.62%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points from the previous week [8]. - **Demand**: Some downstream enterprises have replenished their stocks, but the overall purchasing enthusiasm is not significantly improved. The export situation is expected to improve in the second half of the year, but the current orders have not increased significantly [8][9]. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, the social inventory of PVC was 355,100 tons, a decrease of 0.08% from the previous week and a decrease of 41.19% year - on - year [9]. - **Strategy**: The short - term view is range - bound fluctuations, the medium - term view is limited driving force for continuous growth, and the recommended strategy is to sell out - of - the - money call options on PVC at an appropriate time [8][9].

Market Overview - On June 23, PTA futures experienced a rebound after a decline, with a general atmosphere in the spot market and a slight increase in spot offers. The mainstream supply was focused on long-term sources, with June transactions mainly around 09+260 to 270, and individual prices slightly higher, within a negotiation range of 5220 to 5300 [1] - The processing fee for PTA spot reached approximately 398 yuan/ton, while the processing fee for TA2509 was 344 yuan/ton [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: PTA operating rates dropped to 79.1%, a decrease of 3.9% [3] - Demand: Following routine maintenance on one unit and the restart of two units, the polyester comprehensive operating rate increased to around 92%, up by 1.1%. However, the demand from downstream sectors remains weak, with inventory accumulation in the terminal dyeing and weaving sectors [3] Price Trends and Outlook - Despite maintenance at Fuhai Chuang and Hengli facilities, the outlook for PTA supply and demand remains weak due to new installations coming online and continuous signals of production cuts from downstream polyester factories. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has shown signs of easing, leading to a significant drop in oil prices, which is expected to negatively impact PTA in the short term [4]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz, are driving oil prices higher, with Brent crude reaching a peak of $81.4 per barrel. However, the likelihood of a sustained blockade is low due to the economic repercussions for Iran and other Middle Eastern countries [1][2][3]. Group 1: Geopolitical Context - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime passage, accounting for approximately 25%-30% of global seaborne oil trade, which translates to about 20 million barrels per day [12]. - Iran's threats to block the Strait are primarily strategic posturing rather than a feasible action, as such a blockade would severely impact its own economy [3][22]. - Historical instances of Iran threatening to block the Strait have not resulted in sustained actions, indicating a pattern of strategic deterrence rather than actual implementation [16][20]. Group 2: Oil Price Predictions - Short-term oil prices are expected to rise due to geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude potentially reaching $85 per barrel [5][23]. - A complete blockade of the Strait could lead to uncontrollable oil price surges, but international intervention is likely to prevent such extreme scenarios [6][23]. - The overall dependence of Western markets on Middle Eastern oil has decreased, with current reliance at approximately 4 million barrels per day, suggesting that the structural risks are manageable [7][22]. Group 3: Strategic Importance of the Strait - The Strait of Hormuz is vital for global energy security, with over 70% of China's oil imports from the Middle East passing through this route, underscoring its significance for China's energy supply [13][14]. - The Strait's geographical constraints make it susceptible to blockades, but its strategic importance ensures that any attempts to disrupt shipping would have far-reaching consequences [10][14].