市场焦点方面，今日贵金属相关个股成为"重灾区"。其中，山东黄金（HK01787）、赤峰黄金 （HK06693）跌超12%。此外，灵宝黄金、江西铜业股份跌超9%，招金矿业、中国黄金国际跌超8%， 紫金矿业跌超5%。 花旗在1月30日的最新大宗商品研报中指出，当前的黄金价格已严重透支了未来的不确定性。该行全球 大宗商品主管Maximilian Layton认为，虽然短期内金价仍有冲高可能，但其估值已达到"极端水平"。 汽车股走弱，小鹏汽车-W（HK09868）跌6%，蔚来-SW（HK09866）跌超4%。 芯片股方面，华虹半导体跌超11%。 2月2日，港股市场遭遇"黑色星期一"。 截至收盘，恒生指数报收26775.57点，下跌611.54点，跌幅2.23%。 | ■■R · 其他 · 原ノ : 恒生指数 (HSI) | 分时 5日 = 5分 15分 30分 00分 图K 周K 月K 年K = | 幅生殖数 均15 * | 4 411.54 | 0000 | 26775.57 | . | -2.23% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 280 ...

2月2日，港股市场遭遇"黑色星期一"。 截至收盘，恒生指数报收26775.57点，下跌611.54点，跌幅2.23%。 恒生科技指数报收5526.31点，下跌191.87点，跌幅3.36%。 芯片股方面，华虹半导体跌超11%。 其他方面，盘面上，科网股普跌，哔哩哔哩跌超4%，百度、网易、快手、阿里巴巴跌超3%，美团跌超2%；建材水泥股普遍下跌，西部水泥跌超15%。 资金方面，南向资金小规模进场抄底。截至收盘，南向资金净买入港股超19亿港元。 展望后市： 市场焦点方面，今日贵金属相关个股成为"重灾区"。其中，山东黄金（HK01787）、赤峰黄金（HK06693）跌超12%。此外，灵宝黄金、江西铜业股份跌超 9%，招金矿业、中国黄金国际跌超8%，紫金矿业跌超5%。 花旗在1月30日的最新大宗商品研报中指出，当前的黄金价格已严重透支了未来的不确定性。该行全球大宗商品主管Maximilian Layton认为，虽然短期内金 价仍有冲高可能，但其估值已达到"极端水平"。 汽车股走弱，小鹏汽车-W（HK09868）跌6%，蔚来-SW（HK09866）跌超4%。 2026年1月，主要新能源车企交付成绩单呈现显著分化：小鹏汽 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：华泰证券策略研究） 上周，恒指一度创出四年新高。下半周，港股随全球权益资产呈现risk-off特征，前期涨幅较高的科技和 周期主线回调较多。我们认为当前市场回调更多是上涨过快的背景下，偏鹰派美联储主席提名导致的技 术性回撤。1月下旬反弹以来，情绪指数在短短16天内就从恐慌区间进入乐观区间，我们在《恒生指数 四年新高之后》（2026.1.28）中也提示以投资心态而非投机心态看待港股机会。经历了如此调整后，当 前的核心问题是波动的持续性和会不会终结市场表现。当前情绪已在乐观区间，且拥挤度尚未明显回 落，波动短期或持续，但更多是回撤而不是反转。一季度市场空间的三个驱动因素——流动性改善、资 金面共振与盈利预期上修仍然成立。建议更应立足中期视角，重视空间，淡化斜率。板块上以业绩确定 性公司作为底仓，近期回调程度较高的科技+周期耗材主线并未变化，可择机增配。 非金融预期盈利上修，预期营收基本持平。商品价格波动尚未传导至有色的基本面预期。总量上，近4 周，非金融彭博一致预期未来12个月盈利（以下简称盈利预期）上修0.4%，未来12个月营收（以下简 称营收预期）下修0.1%。行业上，近4周盈利预期上 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.6%, reaching a nearly four-year high, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 2.9%, and the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect China 100 Index climbed by 2.7% [1] - Huatai Securities analysis indicates that foreign and southbound capital continues to flow in, with the sentiment index returning to a neutral range, leading to an increase in bullish expectations [1] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its rebound in the first quarter, with a focus on growth potential and a less steep decline [1] Group 2 - Key sectors to watch include the AI chain (semiconductors, software) and innovative pharmaceuticals, with an emphasis on high-quality consumer leaders and an overweight position in the upstream of the cyclical and power chains [1]

1月27日，港股市场迎来强势上涨。 截至收盘，恒生指数报收27126.95点，上涨361.43点，涨幅1.35%。 | 分号 5日 = 5分 15分 30分 00分 国家 周K 月K 年K = | | BBE · All · II / : 恒生指数 (HSt) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 督生損散 均該 ~ | | | 0000 | 27126.95 1 | | + | | | -27385.84 | | | 行情报险 | | | | | | | 27000 0 | 成效量 | 160亿 原来 271年00 今月 | 24003.15 | | | | | | 成交部 2544亿 最低 | 25120.71 群收 | 26765.52 | | | | | 26500 0 | 其他用意 | | | | | | | | | | 准备 | | | | | 26000 0 | 與克維數 | 8724 | +0.201 | | | | | | 建设斯 | 49412.40 | +0.04% | | | | | 25500 0 | 肿新达克 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨建材 [Table_Title] 关注建材涨价品种，双碳政策迎来新机遇 ——建材周专题 2026W4 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 从涨价角度如何看建材？ 基本面：水泥出货季节性回落，玻璃库存环比下降 展望 2026 年：把握存量链、非洲链、AI 链三条主线 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SFC：BQK473 SFC：BVZ972 范超 张佩 李金宝 李浩 董超 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490518080002 SAC：S0490516040002 SAC：S0490520080026 SAC：S0490523030002 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 关注建材涨价品种，双碳政策迎来新机遇 2] ——建材周专题 2026W4 [Table_Summary2] 从涨价角度如何看建材？ 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2025 年下半年以来部分周期品价格修复，虽相较于部分化工等周期品，建材地产敞口更大， 但盈利同样具备修复机会：一是供需改善（电子布供给受限，防水供 ...

Group 1 - Huatai Securities indicates that since mid-January, despite high outflows from broad-based ETFs, there remains incremental investment from insurance funds and an arbitrage demand from investors, suggesting continued market momentum [1] - The rotation of investment focus is expected to shift from thematic stocks to those with performance verification, particularly in industries with sustainable recovery capabilities, such as the price increase chain, high-end manufacturing, and AI chain [1] - Specific sectors to consider for allocation include electric equipment, basic chemicals, and semiconductor equipment, with a moderate increase in allocation towards cyclical dividends [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities reports that the Indonesian government is expected to reduce nickel ore production quotas for 2026 to 250 million to 260 million tons, a significant decrease from 2025 [2] - If the 2026 production quota is implemented, Indonesia's nickel output may decline to 2.6 million to 2.7 million tons, leading to a global nickel supply shortage of 200,000 tons, which could push LME nickel prices up to $22,000 per ton [2] - The tightening regulatory stance of Indonesia towards the mining industry is likely to slow the growth rate of nickel production, indicating a gradual recovery in nickel prices from the bottom [2] Group 3 - Huatai Securities anticipates that the Federal Reserve is likely to pause interest rate cuts in January, maintaining its forward guidance for December 2025, with limited new information expected [3] - Attention is drawn to Powell's statements regarding the interest rate path, the independence of the Federal Reserve, and whether he will remain as a board member [3]

Group 1 - Huatai Securities indicates that since mid-January, despite high outflows from broad-based ETFs, there remains incremental investment from insurance funds and arbitrage demand, suggesting continued market momentum [1] - The rotation of investment focus is expected to shift from thematic sectors to those with performance verification, particularly in industries with sustainable recovery capabilities, such as the price increase chain, high-end manufacturing, and AI chain [1] - Specific sectors to consider for allocation include electric power equipment, basic chemicals, and semiconductor equipment, with a recommendation for moderate allocation to cyclical dividends [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities reports that the Indonesian government is expected to reduce nickel ore production quotas for 2026 to 250 million to 260 million tons, significantly lower than the 2025 quota [2] - If the 2026 production quota is implemented, Indonesia's nickel output is projected to decline to 2.6 million to 2.7 million tons, leading to a global nickel supply shortage of 200,000 tons, which may drive LME nickel prices up to $22,000 per ton [2] - The long-term regulatory stance of Indonesia towards the mining industry is becoming stricter, which is likely to slow the growth rate of nickel production and support a gradual recovery in nickel prices from the bottom [2] Group 3 - Huatai Securities anticipates that the Federal Reserve is likely to pause interest rate cuts in January, maintaining its forward guidance for December 2025, with minimal new information expected [3] - Attention is drawn to Powell's statements regarding the interest rate path, the independence of the Federal Reserve, and whether he will remain as a board member [3]

Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.12% at 4141.01 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.74% and 0.86%, respectively [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 347.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The precious metals, mining, jewelry, insurance, scarce resources, non-ferrous metals, and oil sectors led the gains, while sectors such as space station concepts, Beidou navigation, satellite internet, 6G concepts, sapphire, and robotic actuators underperformed [1][2] - The non-ferrous metals sector continued its strong performance, with gold concepts leading the gains, including stocks like Sichuan Gold and Hunan Gold hitting the daily limit [2] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities noted that small-cap stocks performed well amid differentiated capital sentiment, with a focus on the elasticity of capital and future rotation directions [4] - CITIC Securities highlighted that the recent statements from the central bank suggest there is still room for monetary policy easing, which could enhance the attractiveness of bank stocks [5] Policy Developments - A new policy aimed at accelerating the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption is set to be released, focusing on supporting new business models and improving service quality [7] Commodity Prices - Spot gold has surpassed $5000 per ounce for the first time, while silver and palladium also saw significant price increases [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports emphasizes the resilience of industrial production and the rapid growth of exports, while domestic demand indicators such as consumption and investment remain weak [1][2][3] - The macroeconomic environment is compared to the investment peak period of 2020-2021, highlighting a combination of weak macro demand and loose liquidity, which favors structural investment in thriving sectors [1] - Key sectors identified for investment include technology, particularly AI semiconductors and new energy, as well as resource products, with a positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals industry by 2025 [1] Group 2 - The A-share market is gradually shifting towards high-performance stocks, with small-cap stocks showing significant gains amid ongoing sector rotation [2] - Despite high outflows from broad-based ETFs, there remains potential for market support from institutional investors and arbitrage opportunities, indicating continued market momentum [2] - Focus areas for investment include sectors with sustainable recovery signals, particularly in price increase chains, high-end manufacturing, and the AI sector, with recommendations to consider electric equipment, basic chemicals, and semiconductor equipment [2] Group 3 - The market is expected to remain volatile before the Spring Festival, with historical data indicating a less than 50% probability of major index gains in the 20 trading days leading up to the holiday [3] - Post-Spring Festival, a new upward momentum is anticipated, with higher probabilities of index gains in the following 20 trading days [3] - Recommended sectors for attention include electronics, electric equipment, and non-ferrous metals, with a focus on commercial aerospace as a theme [3]