Core Viewpoint - The new tea beverage industry is experiencing a significant differentiation among leading companies following a series of IPOs, indicating a shift into a more competitive phase characterized by homogenization and over-expansion issues [1][10]. Company Performance - Companies like Gu Ming and Mi Xue Group have seen substantial stock price increases post-IPO, with Gu Ming rising by 149.50% and Mi Xue Group by 137.93% as of May 9 [2][3]. - In contrast, companies such as Nai Xue's Tea and Cha Bai Dao have faced significant declines in stock prices, with Nai Xue's Tea down 94.39% and Cha Bai Dao down 44.51% since their respective IPOs [2][7]. - The stock performance of Ba Wang Cha Ji and Hu Shang A Yi has also been weaker compared to their peers, with Ba Wang Cha Ji showing a modest increase of 14.29% and Hu Shang A Yi at 27.74% [3][5]. Market Trends - The new tea beverage market is projected to reach a scale of 354.72 billion yuan in 2024, with a stable growth forecast of 6.4% year-on-year, potentially exceeding 400 billion yuan by 2028 [14]. - The industry is transitioning from a growth phase focused on market share acquisition to a more mature phase emphasizing differentiation and refined strategies [14][16]. Challenges and Issues - The industry faces challenges such as product homogenization, excessive store expansion, and declining operational efficiency, leading to a "impossible triangle" scenario where companies struggle to balance scale expansion, cost control, and brand differentiation [10][12][16]. - Some companies have reported significant drops in net profit, with Cha Bai Dao experiencing a 58.55% decline in 2024, while Nai Xue's Tea reported substantial losses [8][12]. Strategic Directions - Companies are increasingly focusing on differentiation strategies, with Mi Xue Group leveraging its supply chain capabilities to gain competitive advantages [16]. - Expansion into overseas markets is a key strategy for many leading new tea beverage companies, with Ba Wang Cha Ji already testing its first North American store shortly after its IPO [17].

Core Insights - The new tea beverage industry is experiencing a significant wave of IPOs, with major companies like Gu Ming, Mixue Group, and others going public since February 2025, leading to notable stock price increases on their debut [1][4] - However, a clear differentiation in stock performance has emerged among these companies post-IPO, indicating a shift into a more competitive phase characterized by homogenization and excessive scaling [1][4][15] Group 1: IPO Performance - Gu Ming and Mixue Group saw stock price increases of 149.50% and 137.93% respectively since their IPOs, while other companies like Bawang Chaji and Hushang Ayi had more modest gains of 14.29% and 27.74% [2][4] - Naixue Tea and Chabaidao, which went public earlier, have faced significant declines in stock prices, with decreases of 94.39% and 44.51% respectively since their IPOs [10][14] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The new tea beverage industry is transitioning from a growth phase focused on market share acquisition to a more mature phase emphasizing differentiation and refined strategies [22][23] - The industry faces challenges such as product homogenization, oversupply of stores, and declining operational efficiency, which have led to a decrease in profitability for several companies [15][16] Group 3: Financial Performance - In 2024, Mixue Group, Bawang Chaji, and Gu Ming reported net profit growth rates of 39.8%, 213.3%, and 36.2% respectively, while Hushang Ayi and Chabaidao experienced declines of 15.2% and 58.55% [14] - Gu Ming's single-store GMV decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, and the average daily sales per store fell by 8.59%, indicating challenges in maintaining sales performance [16][17] Group 4: Strategic Responses - Companies are increasingly focusing on differentiation strategies, with Mixue Group leveraging its supply chain capabilities to gain competitive advantages [24][25] - The industry is also exploring international expansion, with several companies listing overseas to support their global business initiatives [28]