公 司 研 国资入主理顺机制，增量项目打开空间 三特索道(002159) 三特索道首次覆盖报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 许樱之(分析师) | 0755-82900465 | xuyingzhi@gtht.com | S0880525040012 | 本报告导读： 核心项目盈利强劲，国资入主理顺机制，新增项目及存量改造进一步打 开成长空间 社会服务业 [Table_Industry] /社会服务 | [Table_Invest] | 首次覆盖 | | --- | --- | | 评级 | 增持 | | 目标价格 | 28.80 | | | | [Table_Market] 交易数据 | 52 周内股价区间(元) | 14.13-18.71 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(百万元) | 3,190 | | 总股本/流通A股(百万股) | 177/138 | | 流 ...

Core Insights - The article reports a significant increase in visitor numbers at various tourist attractions in Shanghai during the Lunar New Year, indicating a strong recovery in tourism compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Visitor Statistics - Yuyuan Garden experienced a peak visitor count of 31,000, a year-on-year increase of 39.6%, with a total of 261,000 visitors, up 26.7% from last year [1] - The Bund waterfront area had a peak of 38,000 visitors, also reflecting a 39.6% increase year-on-year, with a cumulative total of 396,000 visitors, up 32.4% [1] - Nanjing Road Pedestrian Street saw a peak of 48,000 visitors, marking a 47% increase compared to last year, with a total of 199,000 visitors, up 45.3% year-on-year [1] - Xintiandi recorded a peak of 20,000 visitors, a 41.9% increase from last year, with a cumulative total of 70,000 visitors, up 37.3% [1] - Tianzifang had a peak of 2,000 visitors, showing a 46.8% increase year-on-year, with a total of 8,000 visitors, up 33.3% from last year [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3]. Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival will feature a "9-day no work adjustment" policy, leading to a high public satisfaction rate of 92.9%. This extended holiday is expected to significantly boost travel and consumption during the Spring Festival period [7][8]. - The aviation sector anticipates a record passenger volume of 95 million during the 40-day Spring Festival travel period, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. The number of flights planned by domestic airlines is expected to reach 657,000, also up by 5% [8]. - The domestic tourism market is experiencing diverse growth, with family travel becoming increasingly popular. The proportion of family travelers is expected to reach 39%, while the elderly demographic (aged 60 and above) will account for 19% of travelers [18][20]. - There is a notable increase in outbound travel demand, with booking volumes rising nearly 40% year-on-year. Southeast Asia is dominating international travel routes, capturing nearly 50% of outbound flights, while flights to Japan have decreased significantly [31][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Expansion of Aviation and Railway Capacity - The Spring Festival travel period will see a significant increase in passenger flow, with the aviation sector expecting 95 million passengers, and the railway sector projecting 539 million passengers, both reflecting a 5% increase year-on-year [8][16]. 2. Emergence of Diverse Customer Groups - Family travel is on the rise, with a notable increase in the average booking price for family accommodations, which is 9% higher than other types. The demand for larger, more private accommodations is also increasing, with a 77% year-on-year growth in bookings for standalone villas during the winter holiday [18][20]. 3. Restructuring of Destination Patterns - Outbound travel is seeing a shift, with Thailand regaining its position as the top destination. The demand for long-haul and differentiated travel experiences is becoming mainstream, with a significant increase in interest for destinations like Turkey and New Zealand [31][42]. 4. Investment Analysis Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that can leverage the benefits of the extended holiday and the growth in inbound and long-haul outbound travel. Recommended sectors include tourism attractions, exhibition and sports events, human resources, hotels, and duty-free retail [43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the social services industry [4] Core Insights - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism data aligns with expectations, highlighting strong performance in duty-free shopping, inbound tourism, and leading mountain scenic spots. The upcoming long Spring Festival holiday and supportive tourism policies are expected to boost domestic consumption, leading to a favorable outlook for the social services industry in 2026 [3][7] Summary by Sections Domestic Tourism Demand - Domestic travel demand is steadily increasing, with 142 million domestic trips taken during the New Year holiday, a 5.2% increase compared to 2024. Total domestic travel expenditure reached 84.79 billion yuan, up 6.3% year-on-year, with per capita spending increasing by 1.1% [7] Duty-Free Shopping - Duty-free sales in Hainan during the New Year holiday showed significant growth, with 442,000 items sold, a 52.4% increase year-on-year. The number of shoppers reached 83,500, up 60.6%, and total spending was 712 million yuan, a 128.9% increase. This growth is attributed to the official launch of duty-free operations, new policies, and promotional activities [7] Scenic Spots - Leading mountain scenic spots demonstrated strong visitor elasticity, with Huangshan receiving over 75,000 visitors (up 76.5% year-on-year), Emei Mountain hosting 126,200 visitors (up 20.9%), and Changbai Mountain seeing a 41% increase in visitors compared to 2025. The expansion of high-speed rail and airports contributed to this growth [7] Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) - Inbound tourism and winter sports are emerging as key growth drivers, with a 110% year-on-year increase in inbound ticket bookings and a more than 30-fold increase in experiential product bookings. Domestic winter sports continue to be a central theme for growth in 2026 [7]

Group 1 - The global ready-to-drink beverage market is steadily growing, with a market size increasing from $598.9 billion in 2018 to $779.1 billion in 2023, and expected to reach $1,103.9 billion by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of 7.2% from 2023 to 2028 [6][9] - The ready-to-drink beverage segment's share of the global beverage market increased from 43.7% in 2018 to 45.7% in 2023, projected to rise to 48.0% by 2028, driven by consumer health awareness and demand for personalized products [6][9] - China and Southeast Asia are key growth regions for the ready-to-drink beverage industry, with respective CAGR of 17.6% and 19.8% from 2023 to 2028, significantly higher than the global average [9][19] Group 2 - The Chinese ready-to-drink beverage market grew from ¥187.8 billion in 2018 to ¥517.5 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 22.5%, and is expected to reach ¥1,163.4 billion by 2028 [19][28] - The market size for ready-to-drink tea and coffee in China in 2023 was ¥258.5 billion and ¥172.1 billion respectively, with projected CAGRs of 17.3% and 19.8% from 2023 to 2028 [19][28] - The penetration rate for ready-to-drink tea is expected to rise from 23% in 2023 to 34% in 2028, while the coffee market's penetration is projected to increase from 9% to 18% in the same period [23][24] Group 3 - The competitive landscape of the Chinese ready-to-drink beverage market is characterized by low concentration, with the top three brands being Mixue Ice City, Luckin Coffee, and Starbucks, holding market shares of 11.3%, 8.3%, and 6.3% respectively [28][49] - Mixue Ice City is the only brand positioned in the budget price segment, while other major competitors focus on mid-range pricing [49][57] - The supply chain is a significant competitive factor, with Mixue Ice City and Guming demonstrating strong supply chain capabilities, including extensive procurement networks and logistics systems [37][58] Group 4 - Mixue Group, the leading ready-to-drink beverage company in China, operates 46,479 stores globally as of 2024, with a market share of 20.2% in the ready-to-drink tea segment [57][58] - Guming, the largest budget ready-to-drink tea brand, has a strong presence in lower-tier cities, with 80% of its stores located in these areas [60][61] - The profitability of franchisees in Guming is high, with an average single-store profit of ¥376,000 and a profit margin of 20.2%, indicating strong franchisee interest [61]

据交通运输部预测，在今年"五一"期间，日均跨区域人员流动量将超过2.7亿人次。假期出行热除了 利好最直接的旅游景区外，还利好从交通出行、酒店住宿、文艺演出、旅行服务到免税零售等诸多 行业。 近日，多家在线平台发布"五一"旅游报告，预计今年"五一"黄金周期间，旅游业延续复苏势头，在去年 同期高基数基础上消费活力持续释放。综合同程旅行平台的数据，今年"五一"假期的旅行热度或将达到 2023年以来"五一"假期的峰值。 同程研究院统计，今年"五一"期间，出行成本降低激活大众旅游需求，机票单程均价同比下降约11%。 从出行距离来看，长距离出行占比攀升，1200公里以上的航线占比近70%，较去年同期增长3个百分 点。其中，北京—三亚、上海—乌鲁木齐等航线热度攀升，印证"走得远"成为假期出游关键词。 华住数据显示，"五一"假期期间连续2天及以上的订单占比接近50%，折射出游客更加倾向于安排时间 充裕、更具深度体验的旅行。总体来看，今年"五一"假期，一线城市作为传统旅行目的地，酒店预订率 仍然保持稳定；二线城市酒店预订率比去年增长了1.5个百分点；三线城市酒店预订率比去年增加了2个 百分点；四线城市酒店预订率比去年则增加了4 ...