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2025下半年港股消费服务投资策略:关注茶饮新股,把握出行链机会
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-06-05 08:42
Group 1 - The global ready-to-drink beverage market is steadily growing, with a market size increasing from $598.9 billion in 2018 to $779.1 billion in 2023, and expected to reach $1,103.9 billion by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of 7.2% from 2023 to 2028 [6][9] - The ready-to-drink beverage segment's share of the global beverage market increased from 43.7% in 2018 to 45.7% in 2023, projected to rise to 48.0% by 2028, driven by consumer health awareness and demand for personalized products [6][9] - China and Southeast Asia are key growth regions for the ready-to-drink beverage industry, with respective CAGR of 17.6% and 19.8% from 2023 to 2028, significantly higher than the global average [9][19] Group 2 - The Chinese ready-to-drink beverage market grew from ¥187.8 billion in 2018 to ¥517.5 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 22.5%, and is expected to reach ¥1,163.4 billion by 2028 [19][28] - The market size for ready-to-drink tea and coffee in China in 2023 was ¥258.5 billion and ¥172.1 billion respectively, with projected CAGRs of 17.3% and 19.8% from 2023 to 2028 [19][28] - The penetration rate for ready-to-drink tea is expected to rise from 23% in 2023 to 34% in 2028, while the coffee market's penetration is projected to increase from 9% to 18% in the same period [23][24] Group 3 - The competitive landscape of the Chinese ready-to-drink beverage market is characterized by low concentration, with the top three brands being Mixue Ice City, Luckin Coffee, and Starbucks, holding market shares of 11.3%, 8.3%, and 6.3% respectively [28][49] - Mixue Ice City is the only brand positioned in the budget price segment, while other major competitors focus on mid-range pricing [49][57] - The supply chain is a significant competitive factor, with Mixue Ice City and Guming demonstrating strong supply chain capabilities, including extensive procurement networks and logistics systems [37][58] Group 4 - Mixue Group, the leading ready-to-drink beverage company in China, operates 46,479 stores globally as of 2024, with a market share of 20.2% in the ready-to-drink tea segment [57][58] - Guming, the largest budget ready-to-drink tea brand, has a strong presence in lower-tier cities, with 80% of its stores located in these areas [60][61] - The profitability of franchisees in Guming is high, with an average single-store profit of ¥376,000 and a profit margin of 20.2%, indicating strong franchisee interest [61]
五一出行爆火,一图梳理旅游产业链!
天天基金网· 2025-04-30 08:55
据交通运输部预测,在今年"五一"期间,日均跨区域人员流动量将超过2.7亿人次。假期出行热除了 利好最直接的旅游景区外,还利好从交通出行、酒店住宿、文艺演出、旅行服务到免税零售等诸多 行业。 近日,多家在线平台发布"五一"旅游报告,预计今年"五一"黄金周期间,旅游业延续复苏势头,在去年 同期高基数基础上消费活力持续释放。综合同程旅行平台的数据,今年"五一"假期的旅行热度或将达到 2023年以来"五一"假期的峰值。 同程研究院统计,今年"五一"期间,出行成本降低激活大众旅游需求,机票单程均价同比下降约11%。 从出行距离来看,长距离出行占比攀升,1200公里以上的航线占比近70%,较去年同期增长3个百分 点。其中,北京—三亚、上海—乌鲁木齐等航线热度攀升,印证"走得远"成为假期出游关键词。 华住数据显示,"五一"假期期间连续2天及以上的订单占比接近50%,折射出游客更加倾向于安排时间 充裕、更具深度体验的旅行。总体来看,今年"五一"假期,一线城市作为传统旅行目的地,酒店预订率 仍然保持稳定;二线城市酒店预订率比去年增长了1.5个百分点;三线城市酒店预订率比去年增加了2个 百分点;四线城市酒店预订率比去年则增加了4 ...