Investment Rating - The tourism industry maintains a stable development outlook for 2025, with a stable investment rating [5][55]. Core Insights - In 2025, domestic travel volume and total spending are expected to grow by double digits year-on-year, although the growth rate of total spending is slowing down [8][9]. - The recovery of inbound and outbound tourism is progressing well, with international passenger transport volume exceeding the same period in 2019 [8][12]. - Most scenic spots have seen improvements in cash flow from operations, but profitability has declined compared to the previous year [8][14]. - The hotel industry is facing intensified competition, with only a few major hotel groups experiencing slight increases in occupancy rates and RevPAR [8][26]. - The duty-free industry remains stable, but the Hainan offshore duty-free market continues to face pressure due to weak consumption, although favorable policies are helping the industry to bottom out [8][33]. - Overall profitability of tourism bond-issuing companies has declined compared to the previous year, but the debt maturity structure is relatively balanced, and the overall debt repayment pressure is manageable [8][44]. Industry Operating Status - In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic tourism reached 4.998 billion trips, an increase of 18.0% year-on-year, surpassing the same period in 2019 [9]. - Domestic tourism revenue reached 4.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, although the growth rate has slowed compared to the previous year [9][10]. - The number of outbound trips and international passenger transport volume has shown significant recovery, with a 23.5% year-on-year increase in international passenger transport volume [12][13]. Sub-industry Analysis Scenic Spots - In the first nine months of 2025, 13 major listed tourism scenic spots reported a total profit of 1.785 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.67% compared to the previous year [14]. - Operating cash flow for these scenic spots improved, with a total net cash inflow of 2.577 billion yuan, up 14.02% year-on-year [14]. Hotels and Restaurants - Major hotel groups showed mixed results in 2025, with only Marriott International seeing slight improvements in occupancy rates and RevPAR [26]. - The average room rate for star-rated hotels was 371.7 yuan per night, with an average occupancy rate of 49.2%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous year [26][24]. - In the first half of 2025, major hotel groups achieved profitability, with notable growth in net profits for Huazhu Group, ShouLai Hotel, and Atour [27]. Duty-Free Shopping - The Hainan offshore duty-free market faced challenges, with sales dropping to 22.16 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7% [33][35]. - However, sales began to recover in September 2025, with a 3.4% year-on-year increase, marking the first positive growth in nearly 18 months [34]. Industry Policies - Since 2025, multiple supportive policies have been introduced by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism and the State Council to promote high-quality development in the tourism industry [40][41]. - Initiatives include the introduction of cultural tourism consumption vouchers and the expansion of quality product supply [40][43]. Credit Analysis of Bond-Issuing Companies - As of September 2025, the overall leverage ratio of tourism bond-issuing companies is at a moderately high level, with a median debt-to-asset ratio of 58.49% [44][52]. - The overall profitability of these companies has declined, with total profits down 35.38% year-on-year [48][55]. - The industry maintains a balanced debt maturity structure, and the overall debt repayment pressure is considered manageable [52][54]. Outlook - The tourism industry is expected to continue its stable demand and recovery, supported by favorable policies and a growing consumer base [55].