2025 年前三季度旅游行业运行分析 联联合资信工商评级二部 李上 2025 年前三季度，旅游业保持稳定发展态势，国内出游人次和总花费同比均保持两 位数增长，但在出游人次增速提升的背景下，总花费增速放缓。出入境旅游复苏态势良 好，国际航线旅客运输量已超 2019 年同期水平。从细分子行业看，多数景区经营活动现 金流有所改善，但盈利能力较上年同期有所下滑；酒店业竞争加剧，主要酒店集团中仅 少数企业出租率及 RevPAR 略有提升；免税行业竞争格局保持稳定，受消费疲软影响， 海南离岛免税市场销售继续承压，但政策利好推动行业触底。政策层面，文化和旅游部、 国务院办公厅等部门出台多项支持政策，从推出文旅消费券、扩大优质产品供给等多方 面给予指导及支持，积极推动旅游行业高质量发展。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、行业运行状况 2025 年前三季度，旅游业保持稳定发展态势，国内出游人次和总花费同比均保 持两位数增长，但在出游人次增速提升的背景下，总花费增速放缓。出入境旅游复 苏态势良好，国际航线旅客运输量已超 2019 年同期水平。 国内旅游方面，根据文化和旅游部数据，2025 年前三季度，国内旅 ...

Investment Rating - The tourism industry maintains a stable development outlook for 2025, with a stable investment rating [5][55]. Core Insights - In 2025, domestic travel volume and total spending are expected to grow by double digits year-on-year, although the growth rate of total spending is slowing down [8][9]. - The recovery of inbound and outbound tourism is progressing well, with international passenger transport volume exceeding the same period in 2019 [8][12]. - Most scenic spots have seen improvements in cash flow from operations, but profitability has declined compared to the previous year [8][14]. - The hotel industry is facing intensified competition, with only a few major hotel groups experiencing slight increases in occupancy rates and RevPAR [8][26]. - The duty-free industry remains stable, but the Hainan offshore duty-free market continues to face pressure due to weak consumption, although favorable policies are helping the industry to bottom out [8][33]. - Overall profitability of tourism bond-issuing companies has declined compared to the previous year, but the debt maturity structure is relatively balanced, and the overall debt repayment pressure is manageable [8][44]. Industry Operating Status - In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic tourism reached 4.998 billion trips, an increase of 18.0% year-on-year, surpassing the same period in 2019 [9]. - Domestic tourism revenue reached 4.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, although the growth rate has slowed compared to the previous year [9][10]. - The number of outbound trips and international passenger transport volume has shown significant recovery, with a 23.5% year-on-year increase in international passenger transport volume [12][13]. Sub-industry Analysis Scenic Spots - In the first nine months of 2025, 13 major listed tourism scenic spots reported a total profit of 1.785 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.67% compared to the previous year [14]. - Operating cash flow for these scenic spots improved, with a total net cash inflow of 2.577 billion yuan, up 14.02% year-on-year [14]. Hotels and Restaurants - Major hotel groups showed mixed results in 2025, with only Marriott International seeing slight improvements in occupancy rates and RevPAR [26]. - The average room rate for star-rated hotels was 371.7 yuan per night, with an average occupancy rate of 49.2%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous year [26][24]. - In the first half of 2025, major hotel groups achieved profitability, with notable growth in net profits for Huazhu Group, ShouLai Hotel, and Atour [27]. Duty-Free Shopping - The Hainan offshore duty-free market faced challenges, with sales dropping to 22.16 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7% [33][35]. - However, sales began to recover in September 2025, with a 3.4% year-on-year increase, marking the first positive growth in nearly 18 months [34]. Industry Policies - Since 2025, multiple supportive policies have been introduced by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism and the State Council to promote high-quality development in the tourism industry [40][41]. - Initiatives include the introduction of cultural tourism consumption vouchers and the expansion of quality product supply [40][43]. Credit Analysis of Bond-Issuing Companies - As of September 2025, the overall leverage ratio of tourism bond-issuing companies is at a moderately high level, with a median debt-to-asset ratio of 58.49% [44][52]. - The overall profitability of these companies has declined, with total profits down 35.38% year-on-year [48][55]. - The industry maintains a balanced debt maturity structure, and the overall debt repayment pressure is considered manageable [52][54]. Outlook - The tourism industry is expected to continue its stable demand and recovery, supported by favorable policies and a growing consumer base [55].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the announcement of a work plan aimed at expanding cultural and tourism consumption in Shandong Province, which includes 20 specific measures across four main areas [1][2] Group 2 - The plan focuses on creating new products, including promotional activities like the "Enjoy Qilu Go Shandong" theme tourism year, and introducing new products such as the "Good Guest Shandong" tourism credit card [1] - It emphasizes the development of new scenarios, such as promoting "nighttime cultural tourism" and innovating "digital empowerment" scenarios to create culturally distinctive digital tourism complexes [1] Group 3 - The initiative also explores new models, including a "ticket economy" linkage model that offers discounts on attractions and accommodations for concert attendees, and the introduction of a special train for concert-goers [2] - Other new models include innovative "heritage activation" experiences and expanding the "venue+" composite model to align with emerging trends in the cultural and tourism market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Shandong provincial government is implementing a comprehensive policy package to stabilize the economy, focusing on expanding cultural and tourism consumption as a key driver for economic growth [1][3] Group 1: Policy Measures - The "Work Plan" includes 20 specific measures across four dimensions: new products, new scenarios, new models, and new capabilities, aimed at leveraging the multiplier effect of cultural and tourism consumption [1][3] - The initiative involves collaboration from 22 departments, emphasizing deep integration and innovative breakthroughs in "cultural tourism+" sectors, particularly in digital tourism, night economy, and ticket-root economy [3] Group 2: New Business Opportunities - Shandong plans to introduce new business formats such as low-altitude flight tourism and boutique performances, enhancing the festive pull and accelerating the cultivation of new growth points in inbound tourism [3] - The focus is on developing three major scenarios: night cultural tourism, digital empowerment, and Qilu cuisine, promoting immersive experiences and digital upgrades, including the construction of digital cultural tourism complexes [3] Group 3: Economic Incentives - The province is innovating the "ticket-root economy" model, offering discounts on attractions and hotels with concert tickets, exemplified by the September Jay Chou concert, and launching dedicated concert trains [3] - Measures include financial incentives, regional cooperation, and the "Bring Customers to Shandong" reward policy to optimize the consumption environment and ensure effective policy implementation [3]