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航天电子(600879):中小型无人机市场空间广阔,商业航天带来新增量
Orient Securities· 2025-09-29 08:42
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company for the first time, with a target price of 13.20 CNY based on a 55x adjusted average valuation for comparable companies in 2026 [3][5]. Core Insights - The small and medium-sized drone market has significant growth potential, driven by the demand for unmanned combat systems in the military trade market [8][17]. - The company is a leader in the military small and medium-sized drone sector, with strong electronic information capabilities, and is expected to benefit from both domestic and international demand [9][10]. - The company has developed the "Hongzhan" unmanned equipment management system, which is anticipated to lead new trends in unmanned combat [8][9]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to have earnings per share (EPS) of 0.17, 0.24, and 0.32 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]. - Revenue forecasts for 2021-2023 are 18,727 million CNY, 14,280 million CNY, and 15,651 million CNY, with a growth rate of 7.2% in 2023 [4]. - The company’s net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1,042 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 29.2% [4]. Market Trends and Opportunities - The demand for small and medium-sized drones is expected to expand significantly due to their low cost and high efficiency, particularly in modern warfare scenarios [19][21]. - The commercial space sector is in a rapid growth phase, with the company positioned to benefit from increased satellite launches and the development of low-orbit satellites [10][11]. - The traditional business segments are expected to recover as the defense market improves, with a focus on missile, satellite, and rocket components [8][11]. Competitive Advantages - The company has a comprehensive range of drone products, including the FH-901 loitering munition, which boasts superior performance and collaborative combat capabilities [27][32]. - The company’s drones are designed for various military applications, with a focus on electronic information integration and system capabilities [30][31]. - The FH-901 loitering munition is noted for its long endurance and high explosive power, making it competitive against international counterparts [32][33].