此次波动源于上周五一则市场消息：纽约联邦储备银行对美元／日元汇率进行了"汇率询价"（rate check）。据知情人士透露，此举系代表美国财政部向多家银行询问日元兑美元的兑换成本。尽管官方 尚未确认是否实施直接干预，但此类询价在历史上常被视为潜在干预的前兆。 市场普遍认为，若财务省确实在上周五买入日元，通常应留下数千亿乃至万亿日元量级的资金流出痕 迹。目前观测到的偏差幅度有限，难以判断当局是否进行了"少量干预"或根本未入市。日本财务省暂未 就干预行动发表声明。 当前日元空头仓位已升至十多年来高位。消息传出后，市场迅速定价美日可能联手干预，触发空头回 补，推动日元走强。与此同时，美联储议息会议临近、特朗普拟宣布新任美联储主席人选，以及美国政 府停摆风险上升，亦促使投资者缩减美元敞口。 然而，日本央行周一公布的经常账户数据未能提供干预的确凿证据。数据显示，该账户余额预计于1月 28日因财政因素减少6300亿日元，虽高于中央短资、上田八木短资及东京短资研究所预测均值约1670亿 日元，但这一偏差显著小于2022年以来确认的最小干预规模（7290亿日元）。 新华财经北京1月27日电亚洲交易时段盘初，美元兑日元汇率小幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen remains volatile as of the second half of 2025, with debates ongoing about whether it will enter a long-term appreciation cycle despite a brief stabilization earlier in the year [2] Group 1: Japanese Central Bank Policy - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has initiated a rare policy normalization step by raising short-term interest rates to a range of 0%-0.1% for the first time since 2007 and gradually reducing asset purchases related to yield curve control (YCC) [3] - Despite this rate hike, the BOJ maintains a dovish stance due to unstable economic recovery and challenges in achieving inflation targets, with core inflation falling below 2% for two consecutive months [3] - The interest rate differential between Japan and major global central banks remains significant, complicating the yen's appreciation prospects [3] Group 2: Impact of US Federal Reserve Policy - The strength of the US dollar is a critical factor affecting the yen's potential rebound, with high uncertainty surrounding the Fed's interest rate cuts due to resilient inflation and a stable labor market in the US [4] - US Treasury yields have remained elevated, with the 10-year yield fluctuating between 4.2%-4.5%, supporting a rebound in the dollar index above 97 [4] - Diverging economic data from the US, including a mild recovery in manufacturing and resilient consumer spending, contrasts with some weakening employment indicators, affecting market expectations for Fed rate cuts [4] Group 3: Global Risk and Yen's Safe-Haven Status - Traditionally viewed as a safe-haven currency, the yen has underperformed this year despite global geopolitical tensions and financial market volatility, indicating a lack of investor confidence in its safe-haven attributes [5] - Japan's structural economic weaknesses, high debt levels, and extremely accommodative monetary policy have hindered the yen's ability to benefit from global risk events [5] - The complexity of capital flows in a multipolar world has diminished the impact of single risk events on the forex market [5] Group 4: Future Outlook for the Yen - The yen faces significant challenges for sustained appreciation in the short term, contingent on the BOJ accelerating its policy normalization or the Fed implementing substantial rate cuts [6] - Key factors to monitor include the US economic slowdown, potential geopolitical escalations, and domestic economic changes in Japan that could influence the BOJ's policy direction [7][8] - Technical analysis suggests that the dollar-yen exchange rate faces significant resistance at the 160 level, with potential movements towards 163 or a drop below 155 opening up rebound opportunities for the yen [8]