Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historic bull market in gold prices in 2025, which saw an increase of over 70% during the year, driven by multiple global economic challenges and a shift in international order [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - In 2025, gold prices surged, reaching nearly $4,600 per ounce by year-end, marking the largest increase since the 1979 oil crisis [2]. - The upward trend in gold prices began in the second half of 2019, with an 18% increase that year, and continued with significant annual gains exceeding 25% in 2020 and 2024 [2]. - Other precious metals also saw substantial price increases, with silver prices rising approximately 150% and platinum surpassing $2,300 per ounce [2]. Group 2: Economic Context and Risks - The rise in gold prices reflects heightened global risk aversion and a lack of economic confidence, despite forecasts indicating that global economic growth rates for 2025 and 2026 may not significantly slow down [3]. - Major risks to the global economy stem from the U.S.-initiated trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts [3]. Group 3: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The demand for gold has increased as a safe-haven asset, reflecting a decline in the credibility of the U.S. dollar [4]. - Key factors contributing to the current bull market include the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the U.S. trade war, which have all heightened market risks [4]. - The decline in U.S. dollar credibility, exacerbated by high levels of U.S. government debt and aggressive monetary policies, has driven investors towards gold [4]. Group 4: Central Bank Actions - Central banks worldwide have accelerated diversification of reserves, significantly increasing gold holdings, which has been a crucial factor in driving up gold prices [5]. - In 2024, gold accounted for 20% of global central bank reserves, surpassing the euro's 16% share, with net purchases exceeding 1,000 tons for the third consecutive year [5]. Group 5: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historically, gold has served as a traditional safe-haven asset, gaining favor during times of economic turmoil [6]. - The current surge in gold prices is indicative of a complex interplay of economic challenges, geopolitical risks, and a potential shift towards gold as a long-term asset rather than a temporary hedge [7].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significant drop in gold and silver prices, with spot gold falling below $4200 per ounce and closing at $4251.45 per ounce on October 17 [1][4] - Domestic gold jewelry prices also decreased, with the price of pure gold jewelry from Laomiao dropping to 1262 RMB per gram, down from 1279 RMB per gram [3][4] - Analysts attribute the volatility in the gold market to a notable recovery in the US stock market and statements from the US government regarding trade issues [4] Group 2 - The recent surge in gold prices began in late August, with London gold spot prices increasing over 25% from August 21 to October 15, driven by rising global risk aversion and declining dollar credibility [4] - Several financial institutions, including the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, have issued risk warnings regarding the recent fluctuations in precious metal prices, advising investors to make rational investment decisions based on their financial situation and risk tolerance [4] - Market forecasts suggest that gold prices may continue to strengthen, with analysts from major banks predicting gold prices could reach $5000 per ounce by 2026, and Standard Chartered raising its average gold price forecast for next year to $4488 per ounce [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen remains volatile as of the second half of 2025, with debates ongoing about whether it will enter a long-term appreciation cycle despite a brief stabilization earlier in the year [2] Group 1: Japanese Central Bank Policy - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has initiated a rare policy normalization step by raising short-term interest rates to a range of 0%-0.1% for the first time since 2007 and gradually reducing asset purchases related to yield curve control (YCC) [3] - Despite this rate hike, the BOJ maintains a dovish stance due to unstable economic recovery and challenges in achieving inflation targets, with core inflation falling below 2% for two consecutive months [3] - The interest rate differential between Japan and major global central banks remains significant, complicating the yen's appreciation prospects [3] Group 2: Impact of US Federal Reserve Policy - The strength of the US dollar is a critical factor affecting the yen's potential rebound, with high uncertainty surrounding the Fed's interest rate cuts due to resilient inflation and a stable labor market in the US [4] - US Treasury yields have remained elevated, with the 10-year yield fluctuating between 4.2%-4.5%, supporting a rebound in the dollar index above 97 [4] - Diverging economic data from the US, including a mild recovery in manufacturing and resilient consumer spending, contrasts with some weakening employment indicators, affecting market expectations for Fed rate cuts [4] Group 3: Global Risk and Yen's Safe-Haven Status - Traditionally viewed as a safe-haven currency, the yen has underperformed this year despite global geopolitical tensions and financial market volatility, indicating a lack of investor confidence in its safe-haven attributes [5] - Japan's structural economic weaknesses, high debt levels, and extremely accommodative monetary policy have hindered the yen's ability to benefit from global risk events [5] - The complexity of capital flows in a multipolar world has diminished the impact of single risk events on the forex market [5] Group 4: Future Outlook for the Yen - The yen faces significant challenges for sustained appreciation in the short term, contingent on the BOJ accelerating its policy normalization or the Fed implementing substantial rate cuts [6] - Key factors to monitor include the US economic slowdown, potential geopolitical escalations, and domestic economic changes in Japan that could influence the BOJ's policy direction [7][8] - Technical analysis suggests that the dollar-yen exchange rate faces significant resistance at the 160 level, with potential movements towards 163 or a drop below 155 opening up rebound opportunities for the yen [8]