Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate has shown a significant decline after reaching a key resistance level of 159.45, driven by expectations of Japanese government intervention, converging monetary policies between the US and Japan, and a weakening US dollar [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Movements - As of January 27, the USD/JPY closed at 154.26, having fluctuated between 154.07 and 154.44 during the day, marking a decline of over 3% from a peak of 159.45 [1]. - The exchange rate experienced a sharp drop of 1.5% within 15-20 minutes after touching 159.22, raising strong speculation about potential intervention by the Bank of Japan [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.75% with an 8-1 vote, signaling a hawkish stance as one member advocated for a 25 basis point hike, while also raising economic growth forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 [1][2]. - Market expectations for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan have increased, with predictions of a 50-75 basis point increase by June [1][2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Intervention Signals - Japanese authorities have been signaling intervention, with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida warning against speculative currency operations, and the Ministry of Finance conducting interest rate checks, indicating a higher likelihood of coordinated intervention as the yen approaches the 160 level [2]. - Geopolitical uncertainties have heightened market risk aversion, supporting the yen as a traditional safe-haven currency, while the US dollar index has fallen to its lowest level since September 2025 [2]. Group 4: Economic Fundamentals - Japan's economic fundamentals are showing signs of recovery, with GDP growth forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 raised to 0.9% and 1.0%, respectively, driven by overseas economic recovery and domestic policy stimulus [2]. - Core CPI remains above the Bank of Japan's target despite a slowdown to 2.0%, with persistent inflationary pressures evident in the core inflation excluding energy [2]. Group 5: Technical Analysis - The technical indicators for USD/JPY show a bearish trend, with the daily MACD falling below zero and the RSI at 32, indicating increasing selling pressure [3]. - Key support levels are identified at 154.00, close to the 100-day moving average, with a potential deeper correction if this level is breached [3]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The USD/JPY is expected to oscillate around the 154.00-156.00 range in the short term, with a break below 154.00 targeting 152.00, while a rebound requires a breakthrough above 156.00 to alleviate bearish pressure [4].

此次波动源于上周五一则市场消息：纽约联邦储备银行对美元／日元汇率进行了"汇率询价"（rate check）。据知情人士透露，此举系代表美国财政部向多家银行询问日元兑美元的兑换成本。尽管官方 尚未确认是否实施直接干预，但此类询价在历史上常被视为潜在干预的前兆。 市场普遍认为，若财务省确实在上周五买入日元，通常应留下数千亿乃至万亿日元量级的资金流出痕 迹。目前观测到的偏差幅度有限，难以判断当局是否进行了"少量干预"或根本未入市。日本财务省暂未 就干预行动发表声明。 当前日元空头仓位已升至十多年来高位。消息传出后，市场迅速定价美日可能联手干预，触发空头回 补，推动日元走强。与此同时，美联储议息会议临近、特朗普拟宣布新任美联储主席人选，以及美国政 府停摆风险上升，亦促使投资者缩减美元敞口。 然而，日本央行周一公布的经常账户数据未能提供干预的确凿证据。数据显示，该账户余额预计于1月 28日因财政因素减少6300亿日元，虽高于中央短资、上田八木短资及东京短资研究所预测均值约1670亿 日元，但这一偏差显著小于2022年以来确认的最小干预规模（7290亿日元）。 新华财经北京1月27日电亚洲交易时段盘初，美元兑日元汇率小幅 ...

【1月26日道富投资管理策略师称美日联合干预汇率概率显著上升】道富投资管理资深固定收益策略师 Masahiko Loo表示，美日联合干预汇率的概率已显著上升，还提及周五的利率检查报告。 他称，从历 史来看，财务省利率检查是采取行动的前兆。若后续无实际行动，会助长投机压力，市场会打压日元试 探当局决心。 他补充，撇开时机不谈，市场"底线"很明确，即162。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

格隆汇1月26日｜道富投资管理资深固定收益策略师Masahiko Loo表示，美日联合干预汇率的概率已显 著上升，并提到了周五的利率检查报告。"从历史来看，财务省利率检查是采取行动的前兆，"他表 示。"如果后续没有实际行动，将会助长投机压力，因为市场会通过进一步打压日元来试探当局的决 心，"Loo说道，"撇开时机不谈，市场'底线'很明确：162，即上一次干预时的水平，"他补充道。 ...