美元强势削弱日元反弹动能 进入2025年下半年，日元市场依然动荡不安。尽管年初以来日元兑美元一度企稳反弹，但整体走势仍显脆弱。美 元兑日元从1月的高点152回落至目前的157-160区间波动，市场对日元是否开启长期升值周期争论不休。 日本央行渐进式政策调整，难改宽松本质 年初，日本央行（BOJ）迈出了罕见的政策正常化步伐——自2007年以来首次加息，将短期利率上调至0%-0.1% 区间，同时宣布逐步削减收益率曲线控制（YCC）政策带来的资产购买规模。这一转变一度提振了市场对日元的 信心。 然而，日本央行依然强调经济复苏不稳、通胀目标难以稳固，货币政策基调偏鸽派。特别是核心通胀连续两个月 回落至2%以下，加上薪资增长乏力，使市场对于日本央行继续快速加息的预期明显降温。 简而言之，日本央行此次加息更多是象征意义，宽松基调并未根本改变。对比美联储、欧洲央行，日本与全球主 要央行的利差仍然巨大，导致日元升值难度重重。 另一方面，美联储政策成为日元能否真正反弹的关键因素。虽然市场普遍预期美联储年内有望开启降息周期，但 受限于美国通胀韧性强、劳动力市场稳健，降息路径仍存高度不确定性。 今年以来，美债收益率持续高位震荡，1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing stagnation in US-Japan trade negotiations and fluctuating tariff policies are creating dual constraints on the Bank of Japan's policy adjustments [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The rise in Brent crude oil prices, surpassing $85 per barrel due to escalating Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts, poses significant cost pressures on Japan's economy, which relies on oil imports for over 90% of its needs [1] - The combined effects of energy-induced inflation and deteriorating trade conditions are reshaping the policy framework for the Bank of Japan [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Policy Expectations - There remains potential for a policy shift from the Bank of Japan within the year, despite the core CPI growth rate falling to 3.2% in April [3] - Continuous wage growth and persistent inflation in the service sector could serve as potential upward pressures on policy [3] - If the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates after the September meeting, the narrowing interest rate differential between the US and Japan may compel the Bank of Japan to reassess the sustainability of its yield curve control policy [3] Group 3: Foreign Exchange Strategy - A structural appreciation trend for the yen requires overcoming three key resistances: narrowing US-Japan interest rate differentials, improvement in Japan's current account, and repatriation of overseas capital [3] - The current 10-year US-Japan government bond yield differential remains high at 180 basis points, with the annualized cost of holding yen at approximately 1.2%, making speculative long positions less attractive [3] - From a risk-hedging perspective, when the VIX index exceeds 25, the yen's hedging coefficient against the S&P 500 can reach 0.63, providing unique risk mitigation value for diversified asset portfolios [3] Group 4: Policy Dynamics - The pivotal point for policy will be the guidance from the Federal Reserve's dot plot in September [4] - If the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance, the Bank of Japan may initiate a "preemptive rate hike" in October, accelerating the yen's appreciation process [4] - In the current volatile market environment, a gradual allocation strategy rather than a one-time investment may be a more effective response to policy uncertainties [4]

Core Viewpoint - The narrowing interest rate differential between the US and Japan may boost the Japanese yen, with predictions that the USD/JPY exchange rate could reach around 135-140 by the end of the year [1] Group 1 - Former Japanese Ministry of Finance official Mitsuhiro Furusawa suggests that the potential strengthening of the yen is linked to the changing interest rate dynamics between the US and Japan [1]

Group 1 - The Japanese yen serves as an important indicator of both the Japanese economy and global economic trends, experiencing a significant decline recently after a period of appreciation [1] - On May 12, the yen depreciated sharply against the dollar, reaching around 148.00, with a daily high of 148.59, marking the highest level since April 3 [1] - The decline in the yen's value is attributed to reduced investor risk aversion following a 90-day tariff reduction agreement between China and the U.S., which has improved global risk appetite [1] Group 2 - In April, the yen was a favored target for institutional investors, with net long positions increasing by 58,000 contracts to a historical high of 179,000 contracts [2] - The yen appreciated over 3% since the beginning of April, reflecting strong demand from investors [2][3] - The yen's exchange rate against the dollar has been on an upward trend for three consecutive weeks in April, with a total appreciation exceeding 3% [3] Group 3 - The Japanese economy remains fundamentally strong, and the gradual tightening of monetary policy and potential interest rate hikes could support further appreciation of the yen [3] - Current exchange rates for the yen against the dollar are considered undervalued, with expectations for a stronger performance in the near future [3] - The outcome of U.S.-Japan trade negotiations will significantly impact the yen's value, with successful agreements likely to bolster the yen, while failures could lead to depreciation [3]

Group 1 - The Trump administration's tariff negotiations have not resulted in any agreements with other countries, including Japan, which has notably resisted U.S. pressure [1][3] - Japan's refusal to join any trade group aimed at isolating China marks a significant shift in its stance towards U.S. demands [1] - Japan is strategically delaying negotiations with the U.S. while seeking to improve trade and financial relations with China to bolster its economy [3] Group 2 - The meeting between the governors of the People's Bank of China and the Bank of Japan has raised concerns about potential coordinated actions against U.S. debt, which could impact the U.S. financial market [5] - Predictions suggest that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates 2-3 times this year, while the Bank of Japan may continue to raise rates, affecting the attractiveness of U.S. debt [5] - Japan's historical tendency to act independently from U.S. policies could lead to unexpected economic maneuvers that may challenge U.S. financial stability [5]