Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has been stagnant in the range of 140 to 150 yen per dollar since April, with no clear direction despite U.S. government pressures for currency correction and interest rate cuts [2][4]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate Dynamics - The sensitivity of the yen exchange rate is decreasing, and even with heightened expectations for changes in U.S.-Japan monetary policy, there is no clear directional movement in the exchange rate [2][6]. - The yen briefly appreciated to 146 yen per dollar following expectations of a narrowing interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan, but quickly returned to 147 yen [4][6]. - The linkage between the yen exchange rate and the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential, which was significant during last year's depreciation of the yen, is weakening this year [6][10]. Group 2: Market Behavior and Supply-Demand Factors - Despite the narrowing interest rate differential, market participants betting on yen appreciation have not disappeared, with speculative funds reaching a historical maximum in yen purchases in April [6][9]. - Japanese export companies, which previously bought yen to mitigate losses from appreciation, are now showing minimal movement in following suit [6][9]. - The balance of trade and service accounts has been nearly stable this year, indicating that neither buying nor selling pressure on the yen is significantly influencing its value [9][10]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Considerations - It is essential to consider supply-demand conditions alongside U.S.-Japan monetary policy when predicting the yen exchange rate [10]. - The ambiguous statements from the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell suggest a cautious approach to discussing policy changes, which may prevent market participants from actively buying yen [10].