市场聚焦12月15日发布的日本短观调查，该数据反映的企业盈利、就业及投资意愿将为日银政策决策提 供核心依据。若调查显示企业景气度回升、薪资增长预期增强，将进一步巩固加息预期，推动日元走 强；反之则可能令日银暂缓行动，缓解汇价下行压力。 12月15日，美元兑日元汇率报155.82，整体呈现窄幅震荡态势。当前汇价走势主要受日美两国央行政策 博弈主导，市场情绪聚焦于日本央行12月议息会议与美联储降息后的政策路径分歧。 日本央行加息预期持续升温，行长植田和男此前明确表示12月18-19日货币政策会议将"酌情做出加息决 定"。最新市场定价显示，日本央行12月加息25个基点至0.75%的概率已升至80%，而路透调查显示九成 经济学家均预测本次会议将加息，推动日美利差收窄预期进一步强化。值得注意的是，日银内部倾向 于"走一步看一步"的加息策略，计划淡化"中性利率"指引，转而根据经济反馈动态调整政策节奏，这也 为后续加息路径增添了不确定性。 美联储方面，12月已如期完成年内第三次降息(25个基点)，将联邦基金利率下调至3.5%-3.75%，但政策 分歧显著：本次决议出现3票反对，创6年以来反对票数量新高，部分委员认为明年应维 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's long-term government bond yields are experiencing a significant and uncontrolled rise, with the 10-year yield approaching the critical 2% level and the 30-year yield soaring to 3.43%, indicating potential global market risks [1][4]. Group 1: Yield Trends - The 10-year government bond yield in Japan has been consistently reaching new highs, driven by a "magnet effect" around the 2% mark, with technical indicators suggesting a strong upward trend [2]. - The 30-year bond yield has shown even stronger performance, breaking through the 3.3% level and indicating substantial upward potential due to a lack of resistance above [4][6]. Group 2: Historical Context - Analysts recall the significant market drop in late October last year when Japanese rates began to rise, which coincided with a sharp decline in the Nasdaq 100 index, highlighting a historical correlation between Japanese rates and U.S. equity performance [5][8]. Group 3: Market Volatility - The current rise in Japanese bond yields is characterized by a clear trend, breaking through technical resistance levels and indicating strong upward momentum [6]. - Despite most traders not including Japanese rate changes in their daily risk assessments, this macro-level shift could significantly increase market volatility [9][11]. Group 4: Global Impact - The widening yield spread between Japanese and U.S. 10-year bonds is reshaping global capital allocation, reflecting deepening monetary policy divergence and potentially triggering large-scale cross-border capital flows [12]. - The increase in the yield spread may lead to adjustments in arbitrage trading, particularly affecting yen carry trades, which could have significant implications for global risk asset prices [12]. Group 5: Safe-Haven Assets - The gold market has begun to react to the rise in Japanese long-term yields, indicating that gold prices are sensitive to changes in Japanese government bonds and reflecting growing market concerns about potential risks [14][15]. - The movement in gold prices, whether measured in yen or dollars, signals an increase in demand for safe-haven assets, often foreshadowing broader market adjustments [15][17].

新华财经北京12月2日电 12月的首个交易日，全球多个债券市场剧烈波动，收益率大举攀升。日本央行 行长释放的强烈加息信号推动日本国债收益率升至历史高点，资本回流压力下，美债遭抛售，10年期美 债收益率上涨超过7个基点，欧债收益率等也同步上扬。 日本央行行长植田和男于12月1日表示，日本央行 "将通过分析国内外经济、通胀及金融市场形势，权 衡上调政策利率的利弊，并酌情做出决策"。 上周，在对经济放缓的担忧和降息预期升温的推动下，美国国债收益率曾连续回落，10年期美债收益率 跌破4%。 目前CME"美联储观察"显示的美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已接近九成。 美国供应管理学会1日公布的调查报告显示，受关税政策及财政不确定性等因素影响，11月美国制造业 采购经理人指数（PMI）从10月的48.7降至48.2，低于市场共识预期的49，连续第九个月萎缩。 供应管理学会下属的制造业商业调查委员会主席苏珊·斯彭斯（Susan Spence）表示，受新订单和就业持 续疲软以及供应商交付进一步放缓的影响，美国11月制造业活动收缩速度加快。 （文章来源：新华财经） 当天，日本2年期国债收益率上涨3.3BP至1.025%，突破1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has recently experienced volatility, hitting a nine-month low, prompting concerns from the Japanese Finance Minister about potential market interventions and increasing safe-haven demand for the yen [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently around 155.10, having reached a high of 155.37, the highest since February 4 [1]. - The Japanese Finance Minister has expressed caution regarding the "one-sided rapid fluctuations" in the foreign exchange market, indicating a higher likelihood of intervention [1]. - The Bank of Japan's Governor stated that the central bank is adjusting monetary support to achieve a stable 2% inflation target, closely monitoring the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the economy [1]. Group 2: Economic and Fiscal Concerns - The narrowing interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. due to potential rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may support the yen, while rising domestic long-term interest rates could pressure the yen [2]. - The Japanese government is considering a significant economic stimulus plan of approximately $149 billion, raising concerns about increasing national debt and steepening the yield curve of Japanese government bonds [2]. - Japan's unexpected GDP decline in Q3 has led to skepticism about the Bank of Japan's ability to raise interest rates in the short term, adding further pressure on the yen [2]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Recommendations - Investors are worried that the government's fiscal policies may exert downward pressure on the yen, with expectations that the government will tolerate a moderate weakening of the yen to support corporate profits and wage growth [2]. - Barclays economists suggest that further fiscal expansion will likely keep the USD/JPY at elevated levels due to the yen's sensitivity to fiscal risks [2]. - Goldman Sachs warns that the market's sensitivity to fiscal issues has increased, indicating that any policy adjustments could lead to significant volatility in the yen [3].

Core Viewpoint - Former Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda suggests that the yen may appreciate to a level of 120-130 yen per dollar due to a narrowing interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. [1] Group 1: Currency Outlook - Kuroda indicates that the current exchange rate of approximately 153 yen per dollar is too weak and expects it to revert to 120-130 yen [1] - He believes that the contrasting monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will naturally reduce the interest rate differential, aiding the yen's appreciation [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Context - The Bank of Japan's recent decision to maintain interest rates aligns with market expectations, passing with a 7-2 vote, while two members proposed a 25 basis point increase [1] - Market reaction to the decision was relatively muted, with little change in the 10-year Japanese government bond yields and a slight decline in the yen [1] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Kuroda notes that Japan has achieved its 2% inflation target, with an economic growth rate of approximately 1.5% and an unemployment rate of only 2.6% [2] - He suggests that current economic conditions are suitable for the Bank of Japan to consider further interest rate hikes [2] Group 4: Future Expectations - A majority of economists surveyed expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in January next year, despite two members opposing the current decision [2] - Kuroda highlights that the Bank of Japan's recent decisions reflect a desire to observe the impact of U.S. tariffs on the Japanese economy, which has been less significant than previously anticipated [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has been stagnant in the range of 140 to 150 yen per dollar since April, with no clear direction despite U.S. government pressures for currency correction and interest rate cuts [2][4]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate Dynamics - The sensitivity of the yen exchange rate is decreasing, and even with heightened expectations for changes in U.S.-Japan monetary policy, there is no clear directional movement in the exchange rate [2][6]. - The yen briefly appreciated to 146 yen per dollar following expectations of a narrowing interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan, but quickly returned to 147 yen [4][6]. - The linkage between the yen exchange rate and the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential, which was significant during last year's depreciation of the yen, is weakening this year [6][10]. Group 2: Market Behavior and Supply-Demand Factors - Despite the narrowing interest rate differential, market participants betting on yen appreciation have not disappeared, with speculative funds reaching a historical maximum in yen purchases in April [6][9]. - Japanese export companies, which previously bought yen to mitigate losses from appreciation, are now showing minimal movement in following suit [6][9]. - The balance of trade and service accounts has been nearly stable this year, indicating that neither buying nor selling pressure on the yen is significantly influencing its value [9][10]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Considerations - It is essential to consider supply-demand conditions alongside U.S.-Japan monetary policy when predicting the yen exchange rate [10]. - The ambiguous statements from the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell suggest a cautious approach to discussing policy changes, which may prevent market participants from actively buying yen [10].