这位前行长指出，日本央行在过去五次会议上按兵不动的决定，反映了其希望观察美国总统特朗普的关 税政策给日本经济带来的影响。黑田东彦表示，这一影响结果低于此前的预期。他表示："我不确定他 们今天是否会采取行动，但无论如何，他们今天或12月的下一次会议上可能会采取行动。"这番话暗示 他认为年底加息的可能性较高。 黑田东彦这番言论发表于日本央行宣布维持利率不变大约半小时前。日本央行的最新利率决议符合市场 预期，该决议以7比2的比例通过，委员会成员田村直树(Naoki Tamura)和高田创(Hajime Takata)则提议加 息25个基点。市场对这一决议的反应相对平淡，日本10年期国债收益率变化不大，日元微跌。 在成为日本央行行长之前，黑田东彦曾一度是日本的首席外汇官，负责财政部决定是否干预外汇市场。 他表示："2%的通胀目标已经实现，经济增速大约是1.5%，而失业率仅为2.6%。"他暗示，目前的条件 适合日本央行继续加息。周四，仍有两名成员反对维持利率不变，但根据本月初对经济学家的调查，大 多数人预计日本央行下一次加息将在明年1月进行。 前日本央行行长黑田东彦表示，日元可能会升值至1美元兑120-130日元的水平 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has been stagnant in the range of 140 to 150 yen per dollar since April, with no clear direction despite U.S. government pressures for currency correction and interest rate cuts [2][4]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate Dynamics - The sensitivity of the yen exchange rate is decreasing, and even with heightened expectations for changes in U.S.-Japan monetary policy, there is no clear directional movement in the exchange rate [2][6]. - The yen briefly appreciated to 146 yen per dollar following expectations of a narrowing interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan, but quickly returned to 147 yen [4][6]. - The linkage between the yen exchange rate and the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential, which was significant during last year's depreciation of the yen, is weakening this year [6][10]. Group 2: Market Behavior and Supply-Demand Factors - Despite the narrowing interest rate differential, market participants betting on yen appreciation have not disappeared, with speculative funds reaching a historical maximum in yen purchases in April [6][9]. - Japanese export companies, which previously bought yen to mitigate losses from appreciation, are now showing minimal movement in following suit [6][9]. - The balance of trade and service accounts has been nearly stable this year, indicating that neither buying nor selling pressure on the yen is significantly influencing its value [9][10]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Considerations - It is essential to consider supply-demand conditions alongside U.S.-Japan monetary policy when predicting the yen exchange rate [10]. - The ambiguous statements from the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell suggest a cautious approach to discussing policy changes, which may prevent market participants from actively buying yen [10].