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股市强势?向切换,债市?端情绪不稳
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 02:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The direction of strength in the stock index futures market has switched again, and it is recommended to allocate cautiously with large - cap stocks performing better recently [1][9] - In the stock index options market, year - end behavior is conservative, and protective put options should be used to deal with risks [2][9] - In the treasury bond futures market, the sentiment of ultra - long - end bonds may remain unstable, and while the bond market is supported in the short term, caution is needed for ultra - long - end bonds [3][9][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - On Thursday, the market failed to continue the Wednesday sentiment, with major broad - based indices weakening. The ChiNext Index dropped 2% and trading volume shrank. The allocation style became more conservative, with dividend and micro - cap structures outperforming. Industries such as airports, coal, and banks rose over 2%. High - dividend and consumer sectors were resilient. In the future, it is in a stage where both bullish and bearish factors are difficult to be falsified, and it is recommended to hold IC & dividend index [1][9] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The underlying market was volatile and differentiated. The total turnover of the options market was over 7.099 billion yuan, a 29.54% decrease from the previous day. Mid - term sentiment needs improvement, and the short - term market has turned defensive. Volatility of some ETFs increased. It is recommended to use protective put options [2][9] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures rose across the board. However, the ultra - long - end bonds showed instability, with the 30Y treasury bond yield rising about 0.9BP. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, net injecting 6.97 billion yuan. The market's expectation of loose monetary policy may have increased. It is recommended to adopt different strategies for trends, hedging, basis, and yield curve [3][9][10] 3.2 Economic Calendar - It shows the economic data of China and the US from December 15 - 19, 2025, including China's reserve currency in November, the US non - farm payrolls change in November, and the core CPI in November [11] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Domestic Macro**: The National Development and Reform Commission will take measures to expand effective investment, including in emerging industries and productive service industries, and address issues in private investment [12] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Tungsten concept stocks rose. The rise in tungsten prices is due to supply - demand factors and future expectations, and the increase in tungsten powder prices is related to the tight supply of tungsten concentrates [12] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The European Parliament approved a plan to phase out Russian natural gas imports by the end of 2027. The US EIA crude oil inventory decreased last week, while gasoline inventory increased [13] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Stock Index Options Data**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: Not detailed in the provided content