行情回顾： ◼ 本周（8.18-8.22）上证综指上涨 3.49%，创业板指上涨 5.85%。碳中和板块上涨 4.35%，公用事业板块上涨 1.75%， 环保板块上涨 1.52%，煤炭板块上涨 1.21%。 每周专题： 行业要闻： 投资建议： ◼ 火电板块：我们建议关注发电资产主要布局在电力供需偏紧、发电侧竞争格局较好地区的火电企业，如申能股份、 华电国际。水电：建议关注水电运营商龙头长江电力。新能源发电：建议关注新能源龙头龙源电力（H）。核电： 建议关注电价市场化占比提升背景下，核电龙头企业中国核电。 风险提示： 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 ◼ 我们曾在 6 月 22 日发布的《2025 年中期策略：筑牢防御线，掘金红利股》中提出观点，从股息率提升角度 看，下半年投资策略上建议关注估值超跌、每股分红有提升预期的公用事业红利股。近期水电龙头集中发布分 红方案，高股息资产投资价值确定性进一步提升。 ✓ 长江电力近期提出"2026-2030 年每年度的利润分配按不低于当年合并报表中归属于母公司股东的净利润的 70%"，延续了此前的高分红比例，进一步彰显了管理层对股东回报的高度重视和对公司长期成长发展的信心。 这 ...

Revenue Insights - From January to July 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached CNY 135,839 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1%[2] - The national general public budget expenditure was CNY 160,737 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.4%[2] - Individual income tax revenue growth expanded to 8.8%, significantly higher than the overall tax revenue growth rate[2] Fund Budget Analysis - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, while expenditure surged by 31.7%[4] - The increase in fund expenditure is primarily due to the accelerated implementation of special national bonds and local special bonds[4] - The overall fiscal expenditure (public finance + government fund expenditure) grew by 9.3% year-on-year, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous month[4] Expenditure Trends - Public finance expenditure growth remained stable, with a focus on social welfare, which saw a 6.8% increase, particularly in social security and employment sectors, which grew by 9.8%[3] - Infrastructure spending continued to show negative growth, with specific sectors like urban community and transportation also experiencing declines[3] - Debt interest payments increased by 6.4%, indicating a rising trend in this area[3] Fiscal Performance Metrics - By the end of July 2025, the completion rate of the national general public budget revenue was 61.8%, below the five-year average of 63.5%[2] - The completion rate for public finance expenditure was 54.1%, also lower than the five-year average of 54.7%[3]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index (000824) has shown a slight decline of 0.03% as of August 18, 2025, indicating mixed performance among constituent stocks, with a shift in investment logic from style-driven to stock-driven in the dividend sector [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index reflects the overall performance of 100 listed companies selected for high cash dividend yields and stable dividends [1] - The index's constituent stocks include notable performers such as COFCO Sugar (600737) with three consecutive gains, and Shaanxi Natural Gas (002267) rising by 8.77% [1] - The National Enterprise Dividend ETF (159515) is currently priced at 1.15 yuan, indicating a consolidation phase [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - There is a growing trend of long-term funds increasing their allocation to high-dividend stocks, driven by insurance and AMC stake acquisitions since the beginning of the year [1] - High-quality stocks with stable dividend rates and return on equity (ROE) characteristics are expected to continue attracting specific style funds [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 16.77% of the total index weight, with significant players including COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919) and Jizhong Energy (000937) [2][4]

Group 1 - China Ping An Insurance purchased shares of China Pacific Insurance at an average price of HKD 32.0655 per share, totaling approximately HKD 55.8387 million, resulting in a 5.04% stake in China Pacific Insurance [1] - On August 14, the Hong Kong non-bank financial sector showed strong performance, with China Ping An reaching a 60-day high, while AIA and China Property & Casualty Insurance hit 250-day highs [1] - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial Index rose by 1.81%, with Sunshine Insurance up 5.63%, China Pacific Insurance up 4.83%, and Xinhua Insurance up 3.90% [1] Group 2 - The insurance industry is moving towards high-quality development, with challenges from declining interest rates affecting profitability, but policy reforms are improving the investment yield pressure [2] - The reduction in the predetermined interest rate for life insurance helps alleviate the pressure from interest rate spreads and lowers liability costs, promoting high-quality growth in the life insurance sector [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF has reached a record size of HKD 14.879 billion, with continuous net inflows over the past six days, totaling HKD 1.720 billion [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in A-share bank stocks is attributed to the attractive and stable dividends amidst an "asset shortage" environment, with many stocks becoming more cost-effective after a period of correction [3][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 5, the A-share market saw a rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.96%, surpassing 3600 points, and the China Securities Bank Index rising by 1.6% to 8087.4 points [5]. - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) reached a new high, closing at 6.54 yuan per share, while several other banks also saw significant gains, with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank leading with a 4.72% increase [5][6]. - From July 11 to the end of July, the China Securities Bank Index fell by 7.27%, while ABC was the only bank stock to rise during this period, increasing by 1.95% [6]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Preliminary reports indicate that three out of five regional banks that disclosed their half-year results achieved double-digit growth in net profit attributable to shareholders [3][12]. - The median dividend yield for A-share bank stocks remains around 4%, with nearly 90% of stocks yielding over 3% [11]. Group 3: Regulatory Changes and Impact - Starting August 8, new regulations will impose a value-added tax on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds, which may enhance the relative attractiveness of bank stocks compared to bonds [10][11]. - The new tax regulations are expected to create an incremental tax burden for institutional investors, with projected additional tax revenues of approximately 321 billion yuan, 648 billion yuan, and 988 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [10]. Group 4: Institutional Investment Trends - Insurance funds have shown a strong interest in increasing their holdings in bank stocks, with over 20 instances of shareholding increases this year, surpassing the total for the previous year [11][12]. - The implementation of new accounting standards for the insurance industry has led to a significant increase in bank stock purchases, as these stocks are often priced below their net asset value [13].

Market Overview - The three major indices in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3627.54 points, up 0.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 11158.42 points, up 0.46%, and the ChiNext Index at 2352.58 points, up 0.39% [3][4]. Sector Performance - The military industry sector showed strong momentum, with Great Wall Military Industry hitting a new high with a limit-up on reduced volume. PEEK materials experienced a surge for two consecutive days, and the robotics industry chain performed strongly across the board. However, pharmaceutical stocks opened high but closed lower, and the super hydropower concept continued to weaken. Notably, the stock Weichuang New Materials hit a 20% limit down during the session [4][7]. Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in the defense, machinery, and computer sectors, while there were outflows from the pharmaceutical, galaxy, and construction decoration sectors [7][9]. - Specific stocks with significant net inflows included China Shipbuilding, Dongfang Guoxin, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals, with net inflows of 1.471 billion, 1.313 billion, and 1.167 billion respectively [8]. - Conversely, Haiguang Information, Tibet Tianlu, and Hanyu Pharmaceutical faced net outflows of 894 million, 829 million, and 667 million respectively [9]. Market Sentiment and Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market may experience fluctuations around the 3600-point level before moving upward, influenced by global economic pressures and trade frictions. The structural market trend is expected to continue, with potential catalysts in the military and robotics sectors [10]. - The market shows resilience, with notable characteristics such as the strength of dividend stocks like Agricultural Bank, active performance in military restructuring themes, and an increase in margin trading balances exceeding 2 trillion yuan, indicating a rising risk appetite [11].

Market Overview - The market experienced a slight rebound after a low opening, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.66%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.46%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.5% [1] - Over 3,800 stocks rose in the market, with a total trading volume of 1.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 99.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The military, precious metals, humanoid robots, and commercial aerospace sectors saw significant gains, while insurance, film, photovoltaic, and snack sectors faced declines [1] - The military sector was a standout performer, with various military-related stocks showing strong growth [11] Key Stocks and Contributions - Major banks contributed significantly to the market rebound, with stocks like Zijin Mining, Haiguang Information, and Changjiang Electric also playing a role [6] - Notable bank stock performances included: - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China: +1.44% - Agricultural Bank of China: +1.74% - China Construction Bank: +1.38% [7] Government Policy Impact - The recent announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation regarding the resumption of VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds may have led to a wave of stock buying, particularly in high-dividend assets [9] Future Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the market may experience fluctuations in early August but could return to an upward trend later in the month, potentially reaching new highs [10] - The upcoming earnings disclosures are expected to create a mixed impact on stock performance, with some stocks facing adjustment pressure before the announcements [10] Military Sector Insights - The military sector is expected to benefit from increased global military spending and domestic advancements in military technology, particularly with the recent developments in commercial aerospace and naval capabilities [12][13] - The introduction of the Fujian aircraft carrier and advancements in AI technology for military applications are anticipated to drive investment opportunities in the military sector [13] Robotics Sector Developments - The robotics sector is poised for growth with the upcoming World Robot Conference, showcasing over 1,500 exhibits and new product launches [16] - The focus on lightweight materials for robots is seen as crucial for enhancing performance and operational efficiency [16]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector, once a "core asset," has underperformed in the recent bullish market, with a year-to-date decline exceeding 10% as of July 21, 2023 [1][3]. Fund Manager Actions - Fund managers have varied in their approach to liquor stocks; some have reduced their positions in response to "new consumption" trends, while others have increased their holdings [2][3]. - The China Securities Liquor Index has dropped approximately 10.5% year-to-date, with only two stocks, Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao, showing slight gains, while others like Wuliangye and Water Well Workshop have fallen over 20% [3]. - Despite the downturn, retail investors have actively bought into the sector, with the market share of the China Securities Liquor Fund increasing from 51.3 billion to 55 billion shares in the second quarter, a rise of 3.7 billion shares [3]. Valuation and Dividend Potential - The liquor sector's valuation has significantly decreased, with the current price-to-earnings ratio at 18.31, marking a 3.13% percentile over the past five years, indicating a potential "floor price" [5]. - The average dividend yield for the index is approximately 3.9%, reaching the 90th percentile over the last five years, suggesting the sector's potential to become a "dividend stock" [5]. Long-term Investment Perspective - Fund managers believe that the current valuations reflect expectations of future profit declines, making the sector attractive for long-term investors due to low valuations and substantial shareholder returns [6]. - Despite short-term demand pressures, the long-term commercial attributes and competitive advantages of leading liquor brands are expected to provide value, with current dividend yields exceeding 4% [7].

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector, once a "core asset," has underperformed in the recent bullish market, with a year-to-date decline exceeding 10% as of July 21, 2023 [1][3]. Fund Manager Operations - Fund managers have varied strategies regarding liquor stocks; some have reduced their positions in response to "new consumption" trends, while others have increased their holdings [2][4]. - The China Securities Liquor Index has dropped approximately 10.5% year-to-date, with only two stocks, Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao, showing slight gains, while others like Wuliangye and Water Well Workshop have fallen over 20% [3]. - Despite the downturn, retail investors have actively bought into the sector, with the market share of the China Securities Liquor Fund increasing from 51.3 billion to 55 billion shares in the second quarter, a rise of 3.7 billion shares [3]. Valuation and Dividend Potential - The liquor sector's valuation has significantly decreased from its peak, with the current price-to-earnings ratio at 18.31, placing it in the bottom 3.13% of the past five years, indicating a "floor price" [7]. - The average dividend yield for the index is approximately 3.9%, reaching the 90th percentile over the last five years, suggesting potential for becoming a "dividend stock" [7]. Investment Outlook - Some fund managers believe that the current valuations reflect expectations of future profit declines, making the sector attractive for long-term investors due to low valuations and substantial shareholder returns [8]. - There is a consensus that the key to breaking the negative cycle in the industry is to proactively adjust inventory and support channels and consumers, which could lay the groundwork for market recovery [8][9]. - Despite short-term demand pressures, the long-term commercial attributes and competitive advantages of leading liquor brands remain strong, with dividend yields exceeding 4%, enhancing their appeal as quality dividend assets [9].

Group 1 - The A-share market showed steady progress in the first half of 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all experiencing varying degrees of increase, leading to an overall rise in market capitalization and a steady growth in the number of listed companies [1] - Over 3,700 stocks recorded gains in the first half of the year, with 135 stocks doubling in price and 15 stocks increasing by over 200% [1] - The top 10 performing stocks included United Chemical, Shutaishen, and ST Yushun, with United Chemical leading with a 437.83% increase [1] Group 2 - The market exhibited a "dumbbell" characteristic, with significant gains in growth stocks, particularly in technology sectors such as humanoid robots and innovative drugs, while undervalued dividend stocks, especially in the banking sector, also performed strongly [2] - There are expectations for increased opportunities in the capital market in the second half of the year, with a potential resurgence in previously quiet sectors like the liquor industry [2] - Focus should be on core asset opportunities, which include traditional consumer blue-chip stocks and technology leaders representing economic transformation [2]