2026年保险业开门红，在业内人士惶惶不安，满是焦虑和不安的状态下，交了一份响当当的成绩单：原保费收入减去 赔付，算滚动12个月，接近3.7万亿，这些都是保险公司必须投出去的钱。 长期来看，保险公司配置15%-20%的股票比较合适，原因： 来源：金融翻译官巴图鲁 面对今年扑面而来的50万亿到期存款，各大金融机构都蓄势待发，准备用盆接。银行理财是国民第一大理财工具，但 转移到银行理财的资金，对股市的贡献不能说没有，只能说几乎没有：权益类配置比例还不到2%，投向的公募也以债 券居多。 但保险公司会对A股产生极大的影响，而且是长期的影响，是越来越重的影响。保险公司会买比较多的股票，有些已 经买了20%的股票和债券基金，有些买的不多，但也有10%。 ①高股息股的红利股（以银行、电力为代表）股息率显著高于债券的利率； ②15%-20%的股票配置比例不算高，即便股市有剧烈波动，对保险公司影响也不大，而且，正是因为股市涌入越来越 多的保险资金，这种真正的长期资本、耐心资本，才是A股波动性降低的压舱石； 假设保险公司平均股票资产配置比例是17%，今年必须投37000亿，A股就会涌入6290亿增量的长期资本，量级不可谓 不大。 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 12 月 26 日 政策与汇率形成正向共振，市场对跨年行情预期升温 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周四上午三大指数呈现分化走势，沪指依托权重板块的稳健支撑震荡拉升， 创业板指则受部分高估值赛道股回调拖累冲高回落。进入午后，市场做多情绪持 续升温，资金承接力度增强，三大指数成功集体翻红。在持续反弹的推动下，沪 指短期斩获七连阳，市场对跨年行情的预期随之逐步升温。 市场缓步上行得益于政策利好与汇率改善的双重驱动。政策层面，央行四季 度例会明确释放"维护资本市场稳定"的信号，并提出用好证券、基金、保险公 司互换便利和股票回购增持再贷款，探索常态化的制度安排。这种清晰的政策基 调有效稳定了市场预期，显著增强了投资者信心。另外，汇率层面，近期人民币 兑美元呈现持续升值态势，离岸人民币兑美元成功升破 7.0 关键关口，大幅降低 了外资流出压力，为指数上行注入了增量资金预期。政策与汇率形成正向共振， 共同助推市场走出连续反弹行情。 不过，市场基本面的改善仍需时间验证，当前宏观经济数据虽有边际改善， 但尚未形成明确的复苏拐点，企业盈利的修复还需要进一步的观察。 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 12 月 24 日 短期震荡或是市场主基调，操作上"以不变应万变" 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周二上午 A 股市场整体呈现上行态势，主要指数纷纷刷新近期反弹新高，不 过，午后市场出现回落，日内走势的转折也反映出当前市场资金的谨慎情绪。盘 面上看，局部热点板块仍有零星表现，但近期持续活跃的部分热门板块出现明显 回落，如商业航天板块的调整，该板块的走弱不仅影响了相关产业链个股的表现， 更对市场整体情绪形成了拖累。与此同时，个股涨少跌多的格局也凸显了市场的 结构性分化。 市场整体仍处于震荡行情中，当前市场缺乏新增动能的有效支撑，无论是宏 观层面的政策落地，还是微观层面的企业盈利改善，均处于相对的空窗期。在此 背景下，市场难以形成持续的上行合力，反复震荡或将成为短期内市场的主基调。 后续市场仍需等待明确的政策催化或基本面拐点出现。 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 操作上，以不变应万变，我们维持前期的观点不变。无论是科技成长方向（半 导体芯片、泛 AI 主题及机器人行业等），还是顺周期行业 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-12-19 股市强势⽅向切换，债市⻓端情绪不稳 ⾦融衍⽣品团队 研究员: 股指期货：强势⽅向再度切换 股指期权：年末⾏为保守，保护看跌应对 国债期货：超⻓端情绪或仍不稳 股指期货方面，强势方向再度切换。周四未能延续周三情绪，主要宽 基弱势为主，其中创业板指深跌2%，量能再度萎缩，同时配置风格呈现保 守化的特征，红利及微盘结构占优。行业方面，机场、煤炭、银行涨幅在 2%之上，高股息、泛消费抗跌，前者作为防御板块配置进行产品降波，后 者博弈元旦春节双节临近，历史上来看消费板块的年末季节性特征明显。 展望后市，目前处于多空因素均难以证伪的阶段，悲观者忌惮日元、AI风 险，乐观者信任政策托底，在缩量博弈氛围中，仍建议谨慎配置，大市值 近期优于小市值。 股指期权方面，年末行为保守，保护看跌应对。昨日标的市场震荡分 化，以上证50为代表的红利股维持定力，其余品种尤其是双创风格下跌幅 度较大，期权市场总成交额70.99亿元以上，相较前一日下降29.54%。情 绪指标方面，持仓量PCR震荡为主，部分品种下行，偏度各品种整体呈上 行趋势 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown weakness since November, diverging from the trends of A-shares and US stocks, primarily due to liquidity sensitivity, year-end fund settlement effects, and the lack of macroeconomic catalysts [1][20]. Group 1: Market Performance and Influencing Factors - The Hong Kong stock market is more sensitive to liquidity and structural changes, which makes it more responsive to fundamental shifts [1][20]. - Year-end fund settlement effects have led to mainstream capital withdrawing for profit-taking, preparing for the next year [1][20]. - Anticipation of upcoming US CPI data and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has contributed to the market's weak performance, compounded by a lack of macroeconomic policy or company earnings catalysts [1][20]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Market Sentiment - Foreign capital has reduced its positions in Asian markets, including Hong Kong, mirroring trends in the US where tech stock allocations are also decreasing [3][22]. - Southbound capital inflows have slowed significantly, dropping from an average of 7 billion HKD to 1 billion HKD daily since November, raising concerns about public funds potentially reducing their Hong Kong stock holdings [4][23]. - The market's current sentiment is heavily influenced by liquidity and emotional factors, rather than fundamental issues with leading companies, suggesting that this phase may present buying opportunities for patient investors [4][23]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The focus should be on internet leading stocks and dividend stocks, which have been strong themes in the Hong Kong market over the past two years, likely continuing into the next year [5][24]. - The rationale for investing in both internet leading stocks and dividend stocks lies in their ability to provide stability and mitigate risks during market fluctuations [5][24]. - The performance of internet stocks is closely tied to advancements in AI, with companies like Alibaba and Tencent expected to see improved returns from AI investments in the coming year [6][25][30]. Group 4: Dividend Stocks and Future Trends - The misconception that dividend stocks offer low returns is challenged by the trend of insurance companies increasing their allocations to high-yield stocks in a declining interest rate environment [13][32]. - Regulatory changes are encouraging insurance companies to invest more in equities, with an estimated 550-600 billion RMB expected to flow into the market next year, primarily targeting stable dividend stocks [13][32]. - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (159220) has outperformed the Hang Seng Index since its launch, indicating strong market alignment with dividend stock preferences [15][34].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Increase" rating for the industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The upcoming New Year's holiday is expected to drive significant consumer spending, particularly in travel and leisure sectors [2][3]. - Key recommendations include travel agencies like Ctrip Group and Tongcheng Travel, hotel chains such as Huazhu Group and Jinjiang Hotels, and attractions like Changbai Mountain [3][4]. - The report highlights a notable increase in hotel bookings for popular cities, with a threefold growth during the New Year's holiday [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Travel and Tourism - The report emphasizes optimism for travel and leisure due to the New Year's holiday, recommending specific stocks in the OTA and hotel sectors [3][4]. - Ctrip Group and Tongcheng Travel are highlighted as preferred stocks in the OTA segment [3]. Hospitality - Recommended hotel stocks include Huazhu Group, Jinjiang Hotels, and Shoulv Hotels, with a focus on their growth potential during the holiday season [3][4]. Attractions - Changbai Mountain is recommended as a key investment in the attractions sector, with additional attention on Emei Mountain and Three Gorges Tourism [3][4]. Jewelry and Retail - In the jewelry sector, stocks such as Lao Pu Gold, Cai Bai Shares, and Chow Tai Fook are recommended, indicating strong growth potential [3][4]. Dividend Stocks - The report identifies dividend-paying stocks like Sumida and Chongqing Department Store as attractive options for investors [3][4]. AI and Education - Stocks in the AI and education sectors, including Konnate Optical and Chalk, are also recommended, reflecting the growing intersection of technology and education [3][4].

临近2025年年底，展望2026年，宏观经济整体将呈现稳中有进的特点。随着稳经济增长的宏观政策逐步 落地显效，2026年我国经济数据预计将有所改善，本轮渐进式牛市行情在2026年也可能进一步延续，从 而形成更强的赚钱效应，让更多投资者通过资本市场获得财产性收入，这有利于拉动社会消费品零售总 额的回升。随着内需增长，物价有望逐步回升，预计2026年CPI将保持正向增长，而PPI也有望逐步实现 从负增长到正增长的转变。这反映出在当前需求不足的情况下，政策方面将更加积极，在财政政策上， 2026年可能会出台更多积极的财政政策来拉动内需，包括拉动投资、促进消费，从而稳住物价、稳住经 济增速。在外贸方面，虽然受到外部环境不确定性的挑战，以及贸易摩擦可能出现的反复等不确定性影 响，我们依然要坚定信心，在出口增速放缓的背景下，通过优化出口产品结构、提升附加值，有望实现 利润增长。 2024年9月24日开始，我国出台了一篮子权益类资产的重磅政策，资本市场也应声而起，开启了这轮慢 牛长牛行情。2025年，上证指数一度突破4000点指数关口，进一步确定了这轮慢牛长牛行情的走势。股 市的回升带来了较强的赚钱效应，也吸引了场外资金入 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is entering a window period of upward resonance in policy, liquidity, and fundamentals as December approaches, with previous adjustments effectively releasing some valuation and sentiment risks [1][3]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The upcoming Political Bureau meeting and Central Economic Work Conference will be crucial in setting the macroeconomic tone for the next year [1][3]. - The external environment is expected to remain relatively stable, and the A-share market has seen risk release after adjustments, indicating a potential for stabilization and rebound [1][3]. Group 2: Investment Focus for 2026 - Key investment directions include new narratives in AI, particularly the practical application of AI, sectors benefiting from the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle, resource stocks amid a new round of U.S. dollar easing, and dividend stocks favored by domestic incremental capital [1][3]. - There is also a focus on cyclical sectors that may bottom out due to sustained domestic demand [1][3].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 11月28日，2025分析师大会暨第七届新浪财经"金麒麟"最佳分析师颁奖盛典隆重召开。浙商证券首席经 济学家、研究所联席所长李超团队获得宏观经济第一名。 "直挂云帆济沧海"，现场，李超用这句充满气势的表述，为2026年中国经济与资本市场定下乐观基调。 李超结合其首创的四层次分析框架，从宏观经济肌理、增长动力到市场机遇进行了系统解读，为投资者 勾勒出"十五五"开局之年的发展蓝图。 专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"！机构称A股迎全球资本涌入的大牛市 在他看来，市场的核心驱动力源自利率下行，2025年以来市场信心的持续提升，为流动性向资本市场的 传导扫清了障碍。随着2026年信心修复趋势的延续，利率下行的估值驱动效应将充分显现。 这一逻辑与国际市场经验高度契合。美国1984-2020年长达35年的利率下行周期中，股债双牛成为常 态，即便在经济复苏脆弱阶段，宽松货币环境仍支撑股市走高；日本2013-2019年实施大规模QE政策 后，也实现了利率下行背景下的股债双牛。中国当前的利率环境与信心修复节奏，正为复制这一逻辑创 造条件。 投资 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the performance of the banking sector in October 2025, highlighting a decline in credit demand and a shift in deposit trends, indicating ongoing challenges in the financial landscape [1][2][3]. Credit Performance - Excluding non-bank financial institutions, credit showed a negative growth in October, with a decrease in both retail and corporate loans. Residential loans fell by 360.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 520.4 billion yuan, indicating a contraction in consumer credit demand [1][2]. - Corporate loans saw an increase of 350 billion yuan, but short-term loans decreased by 190 billion yuan, reflecting limited demand for medium to long-term projects [2]. Social Financing - In October, social financing increased by 815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion yuan. Government bond issuance was 489.3 billion yuan, down 560.2 billion yuan from the previous year, suggesting a weakening support from government debt [3]. Deposit Trends - The M1 growth rate decreased to 6.2%, while M2 growth was at 8.2%. There is a continued trend of deposits moving towards non-bank financial institutions, with total deposits increasing by 610 billion yuan, but household deposits fell by 1.3 trillion yuan [4]. - The total scale of wealth management products reached a historical high of 33.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 1.1 trillion yuan from the previous month [4]. Banking Sector Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, listed banks showed resilience with revenue growth of 0.9% and profit growth of 1.6%. State-owned banks performed well, while the performance of smaller banks varied [5][6]. - The net interest margin for listed banks stabilized at 1.37%, with a slight improvement in the interest spread for smaller banks, indicating a recovery in profitability [9]. Investment Recommendations - The article suggests that the banking sector may experience a rebound in Q4, driven by a rebalancing of market styles and increased interest in high-dividend stocks. Recommendations include both smaller banks in economically developed regions and larger, stable banks [12].