投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-12-19 股市强势⽅向切换，债市⻓端情绪不稳 ⾦融衍⽣品团队 研究员: 股指期货：强势⽅向再度切换 股指期权：年末⾏为保守，保护看跌应对 国债期货：超⻓端情绪或仍不稳 股指期货方面，强势方向再度切换。周四未能延续周三情绪，主要宽 基弱势为主，其中创业板指深跌2%，量能再度萎缩，同时配置风格呈现保 守化的特征，红利及微盘结构占优。行业方面，机场、煤炭、银行涨幅在 2%之上，高股息、泛消费抗跌，前者作为防御板块配置进行产品降波，后 者博弈元旦春节双节临近，历史上来看消费板块的年末季节性特征明显。 展望后市，目前处于多空因素均难以证伪的阶段，悲观者忌惮日元、AI风 险，乐观者信任政策托底，在缩量博弈氛围中，仍建议谨慎配置，大市值 近期优于小市值。 股指期权方面，年末行为保守，保护看跌应对。昨日标的市场震荡分 化，以上证50为代表的红利股维持定力，其余品种尤其是双创风格下跌幅 度较大，期权市场总成交额70.99亿元以上，相较前一日下降29.54%。情 绪指标方面，持仓量PCR震荡为主，部分品种下行，偏度各品种整体呈上 行趋势 ...

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively rose today, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.23% to close at 3969.25 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 0.37% to 13223.56 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.03% to 3166.23 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 187.23 billion, a decrease of 43.4 billion compared to the previous day [1] Sector Performance - Most industry sectors experienced gains, with notable increases in the following areas: electric grid equipment, batteries, photovoltaic equipment, wind power equipment, power supply equipment, coal industry, and fertilizer industry [1] - The insurance and software development sectors saw the largest declines [1] Stock Performance - Approximately 3400 stocks rose, with over 80 stocks hitting the daily limit [1] - The electric grid equipment sector saw a surge, with stocks such as Shuangjie Electric (300444), Zhongzhi Technology (301361), Jinguang Electric, and Zhongneng Electric (300062) reaching the daily limit [1] - The Hainan sector strengthened again, with Haima Automobile (000572) and other stocks hitting the daily limit [1] - The Fujian sector was active, with XG Group (600815) achieving two consecutive limit-ups [1] - The broad consumer concept stocks collectively strengthened, with companies like Caesar Travel (000796) and Anji Food (603696) also hitting the daily limit [1] - The energy storage sector led the gains, with Tongrun Equipment (002150) hitting the limit and reaching a new high, while Aters also reached the daily limit [1] Fund Flow - In terms of industry fund flows, electric grid equipment, photovoltaic equipment, and batteries ranked high in net inflows, with electric grid equipment seeing a net inflow of 6.31 billion [2] - Conversely, the software development, semiconductor, and internet services sectors experienced significant net outflows, with software development facing a net outflow of 4.675 billion [4]

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund, Jiaoyin Industrial Opportunity Mixed Fund (010094), reported a profit of 43.21 million yuan for Q2 2025, with a net asset value growth rate of 2.8% and a fund size of 1.543 billion yuan as of the end of Q2 2025 [3][15]. Fund Performance - The fund's weighted average profit per share for the reporting period was 0.0271 yuan [3]. - As of July 17, the fund's unit net value was 0.974 yuan [3]. - Over the past three months, the fund's adjusted unit net value growth rate was 6.81%, ranking 134 out of 182 comparable funds [3]. - Over the past six months, the growth rate was 18.89%, ranking 29 out of 182 [3]. - Over the past year, the growth rate was 32.61%, ranking 32 out of 181 [3]. - Over the past three years, the growth rate was 0.04%, ranking 49 out of 172 [3]. Risk and Return Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years was 0.3485, ranking 23 out of 174 comparable funds [9]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 41.72%, ranking 65 out of 174 [11]. - The largest single-quarter drawdown occurred in Q1 2024, at 31.21% [11]. Investment Strategy - The fund manager indicated a focus on companies advancing in the AI trend, particularly in the multimodal direction, and on consumer-oriented companies that enhance consumer happiness [3]. - The average stock position over the past three years was 86.75%, slightly below the industry average of 87.2% [14]. - The fund reached its highest stock position of 89.87% by the end of Q3 2024, with a low of 53.99% at the end of 2020 [14]. Holdings Concentration - As of the end of Q2 2025, the fund had a high concentration in its top ten holdings, which included Pop Mart, Kying Network, G-bits, Li Ning, Tencent Holdings, Kingsoft Office, Shanghai Film, Beike-W, Kuaishou-W, and Bairun Shares [18].

Core Viewpoint - Over 90% of the more than 100 A-share listed companies that have disclosed their Q1 2025 performance forecasts are optimistic, with over 30 companies expecting a "doubling" of net profits [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - 59 companies expect an increase in Q1 performance, 28 anticipate slight growth, 11 are turning losses into profits, and 4 are maintaining profitability [2]. - More than 30 companies forecast a net profit increase of over 100% year-on-year, with nearly 30 companies expecting an increase of over 50% [2]. - GuoDa Special Materials anticipates a nearly 26% increase in revenue and a 1504.79% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [2]. - China Shipbuilding Defense expects a net profit increase of up to 1200.91% due to improved production efficiency and investment income [3]. - Xianggang Technology predicts a net profit increase of up to 916.65% driven by market expansion and cost control [3]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The automotive, electronics, and basic chemical industries are among the top performers, with 14, 13, and 13 companies respectively [2]. - The overall performance of companies in Q1 reflects a high industry prosperity, with many achieving both volume and price growth [3]. - Analysts suggest that the current market environment indicates a stable and improving Chinese economy [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with potential for exceeding expectations in Q1 and annual reports, particularly in TMT-related industries like semiconductors and consumer electronics [4]. - Analysts recommend attention to growth industries that are supported by advanced technology and policy, such as lithium batteries and high-end manufacturing [5]. - Defensive sectors like non-ferrous metals, national defense, and environmental protection are expected to perform well in the short term, alongside consumer sectors with significant profit and price increases [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor sector, suggesting a focus on optional consumption and service consumption price performance, particularly in the context of the recent recovery in trading sentiment [1][7]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is currently experiencing a gradual decline in its economic climate, with expectations hinging on actual consumption performance validating recent policy implementations [1][7]. - The report highlights that the price stability of premium liquor, particularly the slight recovery in the price of Feitian Moutai, is positively impacting channel profits and asset expectations [1][8]. - The report anticipates that the upcoming performance period will primarily focus on clearing inventory, with expectations for improved feedback from channels and liquor companies as the spring festival approaches [8]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector's PE-TTM is approximately 20X, positioned at the 13th percentile over the past three years and the 8th percentile over the past five years, indicating it is still in a cyclical bottom range [2][8]. - The report suggests focusing on cyclical stocks with potential catalysts, including national brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, which are expected to benefit from robust consumer demand [2][8]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is showing signs of recovery, with categories like sugar-free tea, energy drinks, and protein drinks experiencing strong growth [3][9]. - East Peak's annual report indicates a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40.6%, and a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.1% [3][9]. Snacks - The snack industry continues to thrive, with new channels and product innovations driving growth, despite market expectations of a slowdown in Q1 [10]. - The report highlights the potential for high growth in 2025 through category exploration and channel expansion, recommending companies like Weilang and Yanjin Puzhou [10]. Restaurant Chains - The restaurant chain sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with the seasoning segment performing relatively well due to the trend of restaurant chain standardization [11]. - The report suggests that as restaurant consumption policies strengthen, related sectors may see significant performance elasticity and valuation improvements, recommending stocks like Angel Yeast and Qingdao Beer [11].