Core Viewpoint - The current market equates "investing in technology" with "buying AI," with many investors viewing optical modules as a ticket to the AI market. However, some fund managers, like Zhang Jiansheng from Baodao Fund, adopt a different approach by focusing on growth without chasing extreme hot stocks, achieving significant returns through early-stage investments in various sectors [1][2]. Investment Strategy - Zhang Jiansheng's investment framework emphasizes a "bottom-up, moderately diversified, and balanced growth" approach, with a strong focus on valuation and drawdown control. His cautious risk preference stems from early career experiences during market volatility [2]. - His investment style features distinct left-side trading characteristics, where he sets target market values for companies and gradually sells once stock prices reach predetermined levels, avoiding high premium purchases [2][3]. Market Insights - Zhang believes that leading companies with high market attention and expectations require deep industry knowledge to generate excess returns. He prefers to identify "left-side" targets with lower market attention and reasonable valuations, which helps manage downside risks [3][4]. - His portfolio construction strategy involves limiting single industry holdings to no more than 25%, maintaining a balanced allocation across high-end manufacturing, TMT, and consumer sectors, which aids in drawdown control [3][4]. Valuation Focus - Zhang's emphasis on valuation allows him to uncover opportunities in less popular market segments, such as his early 2024 positioning in the Hong Kong stock market and the 2025 focus on the innovative drug sector, where he aims to profit from valuation recovery [4][5]. - He recognizes that low valuations do not guarantee stock price increases; thus, identifying marginal changes in industry dynamics is crucial. His investment in semiconductor storage reflects a dual assessment of valuation and industry trends [5][6]. 2026 Market Outlook - Zhang maintains an optimistic view of the A-share market, supported by three key factors: a significant decrease in risk premiums, ongoing regulatory support for capital markets, and signs of corporate earnings recovery [6][7]. - In terms of investment focus for 2026, he highlights three areas: AI, particularly in storage and connectivity, resources and high-end manufacturing benefiting from "re-industrialization" and "re-globalization," and valuation recovery opportunities in traditional industries like chemicals and consumer sectors [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The direction of strength in the stock index futures market has switched again, and it is recommended to allocate cautiously with large - cap stocks performing better recently [1][9] - In the stock index options market, year - end behavior is conservative, and protective put options should be used to deal with risks [2][9] - In the treasury bond futures market, the sentiment of ultra - long - end bonds may remain unstable, and while the bond market is supported in the short term, caution is needed for ultra - long - end bonds [3][9][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - On Thursday, the market failed to continue the Wednesday sentiment, with major broad - based indices weakening. The ChiNext Index dropped 2% and trading volume shrank. The allocation style became more conservative, with dividend and micro - cap structures outperforming. Industries such as airports, coal, and banks rose over 2%. High - dividend and consumer sectors were resilient. In the future, it is in a stage where both bullish and bearish factors are difficult to be falsified, and it is recommended to hold IC & dividend index [1][9] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The underlying market was volatile and differentiated. The total turnover of the options market was over 7.099 billion yuan, a 29.54% decrease from the previous day. Mid - term sentiment needs improvement, and the short - term market has turned defensive. Volatility of some ETFs increased. It is recommended to use protective put options [2][9] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures rose across the board. However, the ultra - long - end bonds showed instability, with the 30Y treasury bond yield rising about 0.9BP. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, net injecting 6.97 billion yuan. The market's expectation of loose monetary policy may have increased. It is recommended to adopt different strategies for trends, hedging, basis, and yield curve [3][9][10] 3.2 Economic Calendar - It shows the economic data of China and the US from December 15 - 19, 2025, including China's reserve currency in November, the US non - farm payrolls change in November, and the core CPI in November [11] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Domestic Macro**: The National Development and Reform Commission will take measures to expand effective investment, including in emerging industries and productive service industries, and address issues in private investment [12] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Tungsten concept stocks rose. The rise in tungsten prices is due to supply - demand factors and future expectations, and the increase in tungsten powder prices is related to the tight supply of tungsten concentrates [12] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The European Parliament approved a plan to phase out Russian natural gas imports by the end of 2027. The US EIA crude oil inventory decreased last week, while gasoline inventory increased [13] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Stock Index Options Data**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: Not detailed in the provided content

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively rose today, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.23% to close at 3969.25 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 0.37% to 13223.56 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.03% to 3166.23 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 187.23 billion, a decrease of 43.4 billion compared to the previous day [1] Sector Performance - Most industry sectors experienced gains, with notable increases in the following areas: electric grid equipment, batteries, photovoltaic equipment, wind power equipment, power supply equipment, coal industry, and fertilizer industry [1] - The insurance and software development sectors saw the largest declines [1] Stock Performance - Approximately 3400 stocks rose, with over 80 stocks hitting the daily limit [1] - The electric grid equipment sector saw a surge, with stocks such as Shuangjie Electric (300444), Zhongzhi Technology (301361), Jinguang Electric, and Zhongneng Electric (300062) reaching the daily limit [1] - The Hainan sector strengthened again, with Haima Automobile (000572) and other stocks hitting the daily limit [1] - The Fujian sector was active, with XG Group (600815) achieving two consecutive limit-ups [1] - The broad consumer concept stocks collectively strengthened, with companies like Caesar Travel (000796) and Anji Food (603696) also hitting the daily limit [1] - The energy storage sector led the gains, with Tongrun Equipment (002150) hitting the limit and reaching a new high, while Aters also reached the daily limit [1] Fund Flow - In terms of industry fund flows, electric grid equipment, photovoltaic equipment, and batteries ranked high in net inflows, with electric grid equipment seeing a net inflow of 6.31 billion [2] - Conversely, the software development, semiconductor, and internet services sectors experienced significant net outflows, with software development facing a net outflow of 4.675 billion [4]

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund, Jiaoyin Industrial Opportunity Mixed Fund (010094), reported a profit of 43.21 million yuan for Q2 2025, with a net asset value growth rate of 2.8% and a fund size of 1.543 billion yuan as of the end of Q2 2025 [3][15]. Fund Performance - The fund's weighted average profit per share for the reporting period was 0.0271 yuan [3]. - As of July 17, the fund's unit net value was 0.974 yuan [3]. - Over the past three months, the fund's adjusted unit net value growth rate was 6.81%, ranking 134 out of 182 comparable funds [3]. - Over the past six months, the growth rate was 18.89%, ranking 29 out of 182 [3]. - Over the past year, the growth rate was 32.61%, ranking 32 out of 181 [3]. - Over the past three years, the growth rate was 0.04%, ranking 49 out of 172 [3]. Risk and Return Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years was 0.3485, ranking 23 out of 174 comparable funds [9]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 41.72%, ranking 65 out of 174 [11]. - The largest single-quarter drawdown occurred in Q1 2024, at 31.21% [11]. Investment Strategy - The fund manager indicated a focus on companies advancing in the AI trend, particularly in the multimodal direction, and on consumer-oriented companies that enhance consumer happiness [3]. - The average stock position over the past three years was 86.75%, slightly below the industry average of 87.2% [14]. - The fund reached its highest stock position of 89.87% by the end of Q3 2024, with a low of 53.99% at the end of 2020 [14]. Holdings Concentration - As of the end of Q2 2025, the fund had a high concentration in its top ten holdings, which included Pop Mart, Kying Network, G-bits, Li Ning, Tencent Holdings, Kingsoft Office, Shanghai Film, Beike-W, Kuaishou-W, and Bairun Shares [18].

Core Viewpoint - Over 90% of the more than 100 A-share listed companies that have disclosed their Q1 2025 performance forecasts are optimistic, with over 30 companies expecting a "doubling" of net profits [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - 59 companies expect an increase in Q1 performance, 28 anticipate slight growth, 11 are turning losses into profits, and 4 are maintaining profitability [2]. - More than 30 companies forecast a net profit increase of over 100% year-on-year, with nearly 30 companies expecting an increase of over 50% [2]. - GuoDa Special Materials anticipates a nearly 26% increase in revenue and a 1504.79% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [2]. - China Shipbuilding Defense expects a net profit increase of up to 1200.91% due to improved production efficiency and investment income [3]. - Xianggang Technology predicts a net profit increase of up to 916.65% driven by market expansion and cost control [3]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The automotive, electronics, and basic chemical industries are among the top performers, with 14, 13, and 13 companies respectively [2]. - The overall performance of companies in Q1 reflects a high industry prosperity, with many achieving both volume and price growth [3]. - Analysts suggest that the current market environment indicates a stable and improving Chinese economy [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with potential for exceeding expectations in Q1 and annual reports, particularly in TMT-related industries like semiconductors and consumer electronics [4]. - Analysts recommend attention to growth industries that are supported by advanced technology and policy, such as lithium batteries and high-end manufacturing [5]. - Defensive sectors like non-ferrous metals, national defense, and environmental protection are expected to perform well in the short term, alongside consumer sectors with significant profit and price increases [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor sector, suggesting a focus on optional consumption and service consumption price performance, particularly in the context of the recent recovery in trading sentiment [1][7]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is currently experiencing a gradual decline in its economic climate, with expectations hinging on actual consumption performance validating recent policy implementations [1][7]. - The report highlights that the price stability of premium liquor, particularly the slight recovery in the price of Feitian Moutai, is positively impacting channel profits and asset expectations [1][8]. - The report anticipates that the upcoming performance period will primarily focus on clearing inventory, with expectations for improved feedback from channels and liquor companies as the spring festival approaches [8]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector's PE-TTM is approximately 20X, positioned at the 13th percentile over the past three years and the 8th percentile over the past five years, indicating it is still in a cyclical bottom range [2][8]. - The report suggests focusing on cyclical stocks with potential catalysts, including national brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, which are expected to benefit from robust consumer demand [2][8]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is showing signs of recovery, with categories like sugar-free tea, energy drinks, and protein drinks experiencing strong growth [3][9]. - East Peak's annual report indicates a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40.6%, and a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.1% [3][9]. Snacks - The snack industry continues to thrive, with new channels and product innovations driving growth, despite market expectations of a slowdown in Q1 [10]. - The report highlights the potential for high growth in 2025 through category exploration and channel expansion, recommending companies like Weilang and Yanjin Puzhou [10]. Restaurant Chains - The restaurant chain sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with the seasoning segment performing relatively well due to the trend of restaurant chain standardization [11]. - The report suggests that as restaurant consumption policies strengthen, related sectors may see significant performance elasticity and valuation improvements, recommending stocks like Angel Yeast and Qingdao Beer [11].