Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reports that Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) will continue to experience strong revenue and profit growth until Q3 2025, driven by a robust average daily trading volume (ADV) of HKD 286 billion and high turnover rates [1] - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for HKEX with a target price of HKD 508, citing increased trading activity in the Hong Kong capital markets as evidence of a financial system cycle bottoming out [1] - For Q3 2025, Morgan Stanley expects core business growth to remain strong, with trading fees and clearing fees increasing by 75% and 97% year-on-year, respectively [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley slightly raised its average daily trading volume assumptions for HKEX from 2025 to 2027, while lowering net investment income forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by 0.2%, 5.5%, and 5.6%, respectively, due to new margin guarantee arrangements effective from Q4 2025 [2] - The firm anticipates a decline in interest rates in 2026 due to Federal Reserve rate cuts, predicting a drop in net investment income of 18% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027 [2] - Consequently, Morgan Stanley has increased its earnings per share (EPS) forecast for HKEX in 2025 by 5.8%, while maintaining EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 largely unchanged [2]

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，香港交易所(00388)强劲的收入和利润增长将持续至2025年 第三季度，这得益于2,860亿港元的强劲日均交易量(ADV)和高流通速度驱动。伴随着更多证据显示金 融体系周期触底，交易活动在香港资本市场活跃；维持港交所"增持"评级，目标价508港元。 大摩轻微上调港交所2025至2027年的日均交易量假设；并将其2025、2026、2027财年的净投资收入预 测，分别下调0.2%、5.5%、5.6%，以纳入自2025年第四季生效的新保证金担保安排；大摩仍预期利率 在2026年会因美联储降息而下降，并预期净投资收入于2026年下降18%，及2027年下降4.3%。 因此，大摩对港交所的2025年每股盈利预测上升5.8%，2026年与2027年基本保持不变。大摩现在预 期，港交所 2025年的每股盈利同比增长 32%，之后在 2026财年下滑 0.5%，受净投资收益拖累。 大摩预期，港交所第三季核心业务增长持续强劲，交易费用和清算费用分别年增75%及97%；在强劲的 日均成交量带动下，预计2025年第三季度收入和利润分别同比增长47%和59%，EBITDA利润率同比增 长 ...

小摩表示，基于预期港交所更高的日均交易量预测，预计2025至27财年分别达2,350亿、2,500亿及2,520 亿港元，将其每股盈测相应上调5%至16%。另外，该行预计，港交所上半年利润为49.3亿港元，即次季 为23.99亿港元。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，香港交易所(00388)的日均交易量持续在高位横行，相信是受 到资金流动、南向通、IPO及A股市场改善等影响。该行表示，市场对港交所中期前景的可见性通常会 导致PE倍数的重估，因此将目标价由400港元上调至500港元，评级由"中性"升至"增持"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that Hong Kong Stock Exchange's average daily trading volume remains high, influenced by capital flows, southbound trading, IPOs, and improvements in the A-share market [1] Group 1: Trading Volume Forecast - Based on the higher average daily trading volume, the company forecasts that the trading volume for fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027 will reach HKD 235 billion, HKD 250 billion, and HKD 252 billion respectively [1] - The earnings per share estimate has been raised by 5% to 16% accordingly [1] Group 2: Market Valuation and Rating - The market's visibility regarding the mid-term outlook for Hong Kong Stock Exchange typically leads to a revaluation of the PE multiple [1] - The target price has been increased from HKD 400 to HKD 500, and the rating has been upgraded from "Neutral" to "Overweight" [1]