消费市场积极信号难掩经济深层矛盾，这一矛盾直接制约日元汇率。 日元兑美元汇率今日跌破157关口，已连续四个交易日走低。美元走强构成主要压力，全球市场正依据 近期美国经济数据，重新评估美联储未来政策路径，这一预期直接影响了日元汇率的走向。 美元强势有扎实经济数据支撑。美国第三季度非农生产率年化季率增速达4.9%，远超市场预期的3%， 创两年来新高；单位劳动成本连续两季下降，有效抑制薪资通胀压力。 就业端，截至1月3日当周首次申请失业金人数20.8万人，虽较前一周增加但低于预期，处于历史低位， 劳动力市场未现恶化。美国经济"软着陆"预期强化，推升投资者对美联储维持当前政策的预期，带动美 元指数走强，压制包括日元在内的非美货币。 日本国内经济呈现结构性分化。日本总务省数据显示，2025年11月两人以上家庭实际消费支出同比增长 2.9%，终结下滑态势，创半年来最大增幅。 增长集中于特定领域：交通通信支出同比增20.4%，家具家居用品增10.6%，教育支出增10.2%，食品支 出微增0.9%终结连降。冬季相关采购增加及部分必需品通胀压力缓解，构成增长主要驱动，显示消费 市场存在阶段性复苏动能。 2025年11月，日本实 ...

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate rebounded in early Asian trading on Wednesday, ending a three-day decline, with current levels around 155.85, indicating some buying support at this position [1] - The rebound is primarily driven by investors adjusting their expectations for upcoming key U.S. economic data and reassessing the monetary policy paths of both the U.S. and Japan [1][7] - The U.S. dollar index showed a mild increase, influenced by overall risk appetite, but further strengthening may be limited due to potential changes in U.S. interest rate policy with Kevin Hassett being considered as a candidate for the next Fed Chair [3][5] Group 2 - Recent U.S. manufacturing PMI data fell below market expectations, reinforcing bets on a Fed rate cut, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December now close to 87%, up from about 63% a month ago [5] - The Bank of Japan's future policy direction is crucial for the USD/JPY exchange rate, with Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasizing continued normalization of monetary policy if economic and inflation trends meet expectations [6][8] - Market focus will be on upcoming U.S. employment and inflation data, which will further reveal the economic situation and Fed policy direction, while Japan's inflation data will influence the timing of the BoJ's policy adjustments [7][8]

Core Insights - JPMorgan Chase outperformed global competitors in the Japanese market last year, achieving a net profit of 45.6 billion yen (approximately 3.09 billion USD), marking a seven-year high due to a surge in trading activity driven by governance reforms [1] - The increase in net profit was over 100% compared to the previous year, reversing a decline, attributed to a boom in merger advisory and underwriting services [1] - The competitive landscape in Japan has intensified as companies accelerate acquisitions and divest non-core assets, creating more opportunities for investment banks [1] Financial Performance - JPMorgan's local securities subsidiary reported a net profit of 45.6 billion yen, while Morgan Stanley's local subsidiary achieved record revenues of 153.2 billion yen but saw a 2.3% decline in net profit to 31.9 billion yen due to provisions for liabilities [1] - BNP Paribas's brokerage division experienced a 2.9% decrease in profit to 20.6 billion yen due to a drop in commissions [1] - In contrast to these results, most other major banks reported a decline in net profits, highlighting JPMorgan's strong performance amid a challenging market environment [1] Market Dynamics - The Japanese market saw significant trading activity as the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes led to increased volatility in the bond market and a rebound in the stock market [1] - The president of Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities noted that the normalization of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy and rising volatility in government bonds contributed to the uptick in trading activities [1]