日本央行行长植田和男重申，日本经济已实现"温和复苏"，并强调尽管2025年第三季度GDP出现负增 长，但该现象仅为暂时性波动。 植田和男指出，随着企业持续提高工资与价格，以及海外经济逐步回升，日本经济前景的不确定性正在 减弱。 关于货币政策，植田和男明确表示："为顺利实现物价稳定目标，有必要适时调整宽松力度，既不能过 晚，也不能过早。"他解释称，即使政策利率上调，宽松的金融环境仍将维持；加息并非"踩刹车"，而 是"适度放松油门"，以支持经济与物价的稳定增长。（新华财经） 植田和男表示，日本央行对经济活动和物价的基本判断未发生改变。他特别提到，2025财年最低工资同 比涨幅超过5%，极有可能带动更广泛的企业加薪行为，并强调"尤其重要的是，要确认迈向明年春季年 度薪资谈判的初步动向是否具备足够动能"。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The rise in Japan's ultra-long-term government bond yields is the result of multiple factors including market re - evaluation of Japan's fiscal prospects, adjustment of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy expectations, and structural imbalances in population and finance. Japan's long - term bond yields face upward risks of fluctuation in the future [1][7][12] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Japan's Ultra - Long - Term Government Bond Yields Reach High Levels - In early July, Japan's ultra - long - term government bond yields rebounded. On July 8, the 30 - year government bond yield rose 12.5 basis points to a phased high of 3.09%, and the 40 - year yield climbed to 3.36%. Global bond markets also showed a linkage, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising from 4.35% to 4.41% and the 10 - year Chinese government bond yield rising from 2.63% to 2.70% between July 3 and 9. Market nervousness re - emerged in early July, reflecting concerns about future fiscal policies and political developments [4] 2. Reasons for the Significant Rise in Japanese Bond Yields - **Market Re - evaluation of Fiscal Prospects**: The upcoming July 20 Japanese Senate election is a focus. The ruling coalition risks losing the majority of seats. The opposition's call for tax cuts and increased welfare spending exacerbates concerns about fiscal sustainability and raises expectations of future bond supply expansion. The unresolved US - Japan tariff negotiation also adds uncertainty to Japan's export and inflation prospects [7] - **Adjustment of BOJ's Monetary Policy Expectations and Weakening of Domestic Bond Demand**: Since 2024, the Bank of Japan has gradually exited ultra - loose monetary policy. The market expects it to be in a quantitative tightening cycle, and the possible adjustment of the bond purchase plan leads to a lack of marginal buyers for ultra - long - term bonds. High inflation and rising interest rates have also suppressed domestic financial institutions' demand for long - term bonds [7][9] - **Structural Imbalances in Population and Finance**: Japan's deepening population aging restricts fiscal space and long - term investment demand. The proportion of the population aged 65 and above has increased from 18.4% in 2001 to 30.2% in 2024 and is expected to reach 36.7% in 2045. The government's large social security expenditure due to aging leads to a high fiscal deficit and government debt, and the change in investment preferences of the elderly also affects the demand for long - term bonds [10] 3. Future Outlook - Japan's long - term bond yields are affected by multiple factors and face upward risks of fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the US - Japan tariff negotiation, the results of the Senate election, and the 20 - year government bond auction on July 10. If the ruling coalition loses its majority in the Senate election, it may lead to a re - pricing of fiscal expansion expectations and push up long - term bond yields. The recent demand for ultra - long - term Japanese government bonds has been acceptable [12][15]