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高市早苗重拾“安倍经济学”,中日“政冷经热”难维系?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-06 07:47
日本自民党首位女总裁高市早苗带着扩大的财政赤字与对华强硬立场归来,中日关系面临重新定义时刻。 当地时间10月4日,日本前经济安全保障担当大臣高市早苗在执政自民党总裁选举中胜出,成为自民党历史上首位女性总裁,并即将成为日本首位女性首 相。 随着这位被称为"女版安倍"的政治人物重返权力中心,她全面继承的"安倍经济学"以及其对华强硬立场,正引发关于中日关系走向的广泛关注。 "女版安倍"的政治底色 从政逾30年的高市早苗是已故前首相安倍晋三的亲信,在经济、外交、国防等政策上全面继承安倍路线。 她属于自民党内保守派代表人物,曾多次参拜靖国神社。 共同社形容高市为"继承安倍路线的善辩保守派"。 目前日本债务已超过其国内生产总值(GDP)的250%,位居全球前列,若继续财政扩张甚至增发国债,可能引发金融风险。 市场反应与政策困境 随着高市早苗赢得选举,日本金融市场迅速为"安倍经济学"的可能回归进行定价。 周一东京市场开盘后,日经225指数应声大涨超过4%,创下数月来最大单日涨幅,而日元兑美元汇率则大幅走弱1.5%,逼近150这一关键水平。 债券市场同样上演剧烈波动,对未来财政扩张的担忧推动长期利率走高,日本40年期国债收益 ...
央行紧缩疑云叠加政治变数 日本10年期国债拍卖迎大考
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-01 23:05
Group 1 - The upcoming 10-year government bond auction in Japan is seen as a critical test of investor demand amid rising expectations for interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and ongoing political uncertainty [1][2] - The Bank of Japan is gradually reducing its large-scale bond purchases, leading to an increase in government bond yields, which have reached multi-year highs [1][2] - Recent bond auctions have shown weak demand, with the last 10-year bond auction demand falling below the 12-month average and the 2-year bond auction hitting a 16-year low [1][2] Group 2 - Market analysts suggest that the continuation of the interest rate hike cycle and the ongoing reduction in bond purchase scale will likely push bond yields higher, making investors cautious about buying at current levels [2][4] - The outcome of the ruling party's election review will influence whether lawmakers support an early leadership election, adding another layer of uncertainty to the market [2][4] - The Japanese Ministry of Finance is consulting primary dealers about further reducing the issuance of long-term bonds, which may impact market dynamics [4]
日本40年期国债收益率下跌5个基点至3.35%。
news flash· 2025-07-25 06:17
Core Viewpoint - The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds has decreased by 5 basis points to 3.35% [1] Group 1 - The decline in the yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards long-term government bonds [1] - A 5 basis point drop suggests a possible increase in demand for safer assets amid market uncertainties [1]
日本40年期国债收益率下跌5.5BP至3.4%。
news flash· 2025-07-24 06:34
Core Viewpoint - The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds has decreased by 5.5 basis points to 3.4% [1] Group 1 - The decline in the yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards long-term government bonds [1] - A decrease in bond yields often reflects increased demand for safer investments, possibly due to economic uncertainties [1] - The current yield level may influence future borrowing costs for the government and impact overall economic conditions [1]
7月24日电,日本40年期国债收益率下降5.5个基点至3.4%。
news flash· 2025-07-24 06:18
Group 1 - The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds has decreased by 5.5 basis points to 3.4% [1]
日本40年期国债收益率下降5.5个基点至3.4%。
news flash· 2025-07-24 06:17
Core Viewpoint - The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds has decreased by 5.5 basis points to 3.4% [1] Group 1 - The decline in the yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards long-term government bonds [1] - A decrease in yield may suggest increased demand for safer assets amid economic uncertainties [1] - The current yield level reflects broader trends in the bond market and may influence future monetary policy decisions [1]
每日机构分析:7月23日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-23 13:46
Group 1 - The U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on Japanese goods, lower than the previously threatened 25%, which has improved market risk appetite and reduced demand for the yen as a safe-haven asset [2] - Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling coalition lost its majority in the recent upper house elections, raising speculation about his potential resignation and increasing political uncertainty regarding future cooperation with opposition parties [2] - Goldman Sachs predicts that U.S. tariffs will raise core inflation by approximately 1.7% over the next 2-3 years, with GDP growth forecast for 2025 revised down to 1% [3] Group 2 - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain its current monetary policy in the upcoming meeting, but there is potential for further easing due to unexpected declines in inflation in Nordic countries and uncertainties from tariffs and trade negotiations [2] - PIMCO economists suggest that President Trump is unlikely to replace Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell but will use upcoming appointment opportunities to influence Fed policy direction [1][2] - Morgan Stanley highlights that if the dollar is no longer viewed as a safe investment, it could lead to significant issues, indicating a potential long-term decline in investment trends in the U.S. [3]
日债又暴雷!40年期长债拍卖需求创十四年新低
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-23 06:38
由于对政府支出的担忧以及美日达成贸易协议,日本40年期国债拍卖需求创2011年以来最低需求水平。 最新拍卖中,衡量需求强度的投标覆盖率降至2.127,低于前次拍卖的2.214,同时债券收益率升至创纪录的3.375%。 此次拍卖结果公布后,日本国债收益率全线上行,40年期收益率日内上行近10个基点,10年期升至2008年以来最高水平,日内 上行8个基点。 此次拍卖背景复杂,首相石破茂所在执政联盟参议院选举中未能获得多数席位,此外,据央视新闻,当地时间7月22日,特朗普 宣布美国与日本达成贸易协议,对日本商品征收15%的进口关税。这些因素共同加剧了市场对日本经济前景的担忧。 Okasan Securities首席债券策略师长谷川直哉表示:"拍卖结果比预期更弱。关于石破茂辞职的消息和美日贸易协议的报道使市场 不稳定,导致投资者采取观望态度。" 尽管债市承压,日经225指数涨近4%,显示股市投资者情绪有所改善,市场反应呈现分化。 在特朗普宣布关税措施后不久,日本央行副行长内田真一在讲话中表示,目前没有立即提高基准利率的必要。然而,隔夜指数 掉期显示,市场对年底前加息的预期概率已超过80%,高于前一天的59%。 这表明 ...
石破茂选举挫败后迎日本40年期国债拍卖,政策压力加剧收益率上行
智通财经网· 2025-07-23 00:20
Group 1 - Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio faces significant political pressure following a historic electoral defeat, leading to a critical test of investor interest in 40-year government bond auctions [1] - The Japanese government plans to issue approximately 28.65 trillion yen in new national bonds for the fiscal year 2025, despite a slight reduction from the previous fiscal year, raising concerns among investors due to Japan's high debt levels [1][4] - The total budget for the Japanese government in fiscal year 2025 reaches a record high of 115.54 trillion yen, with social security costs rising to 38.28 trillion yen and debt repayment and interest payments reaching 28.22 trillion yen, indicating substantial fiscal pressure [4] Group 2 - Market analysts express concerns that the recent election results may lead to increased upward pressure on long-term bond yields due to potential fiscal expansion [4][5] - The upcoming bond auction is expected to be influenced by the government's fiscal policies and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, with cautious sentiment prevailing in the bond market until clearer fiscal policy direction is established [5] - The volatility risk surrounding the 40-year bond auction remains, as the government may continue to pursue expansionary policies to gain support from smaller political parties [5]
日本40年期国债收益率下行8个基点至3.295%。
news flash· 2025-07-18 03:46
Core Viewpoint - The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds has decreased by 8 basis points to 3.295% [1] Group 1 - The decline in the yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards long-term government bonds in Japan [1] - The current yield level may reflect broader economic conditions and monetary policy expectations in Japan [1]