由于持续的通胀担忧和日益上升的财政风险继续打压市场情绪，日本30年期国债收益率攀升至历史高点。数据显示，日本30年期国债收益率周五一度升至 3.21%，超过7月创下的前期峰值3.2%。其他期限的日本国债收益率也同步走高，延续了日本国债长达数月的抛售趋势。 周五公布的数据显示，日本7月核心CPI同比上涨3.1%，高于市场预期的3%，且远超日本央行2%的目标。高企的通胀提振了市场对日本央行加息的预期，日 本国债收益率也应声走高。 不过，超长期日本国债收益率已攀升至一些寿险公司认为具有吸引力的水平。T&D资产管理公司首席策略师Hiroshi Namioka表示："超长期日本国债的投资 吸引力正在显现。"但他也补充称："在20年期和10年期等期限较长的日本国债中，收益率仍有进一步上升的空间。" 市场目前关注的是日本央行行长植田和男在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的讲话，以寻找有关日本央行政策路径的信号。在周五的最新通胀数据出炉后，交易 员们当前预计，到10月底日本央行加息的概率约为51%，高于通胀数据出炉前的45%，同样远远高于一个月前市场预期的约35%。 值得一提的是，在周五的通胀数据发布约一周前，美国财政部长贝森特在接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing cautious sentiment as investors' bets on an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve are cooling down, with expectations for a September rate cut dropping from 90% to 70% [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Several Federal Reserve officials have adopted a hawkish stance, diminishing market expectations for an immediate rate cut, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stating she would not support easing policy if a decision were required immediately [2]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic believes that only one rate cut this year is appropriate, while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid emphasizes that inflation risks currently outweigh labor market risks [2]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee acknowledges some positive inflation data but warns that it could be a temporary phenomenon, contributing to a hawkish outlook [2]. Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reactions - Mixed economic data complicates the Fed's decision-making, with initial jobless claims increasing, indicating a slowdown in the labor market, while the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing activity has risen to its fastest pace since 2022, showcasing economic resilience [5]. - European major stock indices opened lower, with Germany's DAX30 down 0.30%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.15%, and France's CAC40 down 0.19% [5]. - The Japanese 30-year government bond yield reached a new high of 3.21%, marking the highest level since its introduction in 1999 [5]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Analyst Insights - Analysts warn that market expectations may be overly optimistic regarding a dovish shift from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with some predicting a cautious, data-driven stance from the Fed [6]. - If Powell maintains a neutral or hawkish position regarding a September rate cut, it could lead to further strengthening of the dollar, as investors seem to have priced in a dovish outlook [6]. - In individual stock movements, tech giant Nvidia's shares fell approximately 1.9% in alternative trading [6].

Group 1 - The yield on Japan's 20-year government bonds decreased by 5 basis points to 2.52% [1] - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds fell by 6 basis points to 3.03% [1]

Group 1 - The yield on Japan's 20-year government bonds decreased by 5 basis points to 2.52% [1] - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds fell by 6 basis points to 3.03% [1]

Group 1 - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds has decreased by 10 basis points to 3.06% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds has decreased by 8 basis points to 3.08% [1] Group 1 - The decline in the yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards long-term government bonds [1] - A decrease in bond yields typically suggests increased demand for safer assets, reflecting market uncertainty [1] - The current yield level may influence future borrowing costs for the government and impact overall economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds has decreased by 8 basis points to 3.08% [1] Group 1 - The decline in the yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards long-term government bonds [1] - A decrease in bond yields often reflects increased demand for safer assets, suggesting market uncertainty [1] - The current yield level may influence future borrowing costs for the government and impact overall economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds has decreased by 8 basis points to 3.08% [1] Group 1 - The decline in the yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards long-term government bonds [1] - A decrease in bond yields often reflects increased demand for safer assets, suggesting market uncertainty [1] - The current yield level may influence future borrowing costs for the Japanese government [1]

Core Point - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds has increased by 10.5 basis points to 3.145% [1] Group 1 - The rise in yield indicates a shift in investor sentiment towards long-term government debt in Japan [1] - The increase of 10.5 basis points reflects broader trends in the bond market and potential changes in monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds has increased by 1 basis point to 3.065% [1] Group 1 - The rise in yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards long-term government debt in Japan [1]