南方财经21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 据新华社报道，当地时间10月4日，日本前经济安全保障担当大臣高市早苗在4日举行的自民党总裁选举 中胜出，当选自民党第29任总裁。 由于自民党目前仍在日本国会保持第一大党地位，外界预测高市早苗将在几天后的首相指名选举中成为 日本首位女性首相。 当天选举经历了两轮投票，五名候选人无一在首轮投票中得票超过半数，得票数居前两位的高市早苗和 日本农林水产大臣小泉进次郎进入第二轮。最终，高市获185票，高于小泉的156票，当选日本自民党第 29任总裁。 日本政坛再次洗牌。有分析认为，由于自民党在国会两院陷入"双少数"，即便新当选的自民党总裁能顺 利当选新任日本首相，未来也将在政治运作上面临严重困难，不仅发布改革相关政策时举步维艰，甚至 可能连普通的政府预算都难以在国会通过。 此外，高市早苗一贯主张维持货币宽松与扩张性的财政政策，被视为"安倍经济学"的继承者。因此有市 场分析预测，接下来可能会看到日元贬值，日本国债收益率曲线将扭曲变陡，日本央行实施加息政策的 难度也会有所增加。市场正密切关注，频繁变动的日本政局，将如何影响该国的加息前景？ 中国国际问题研究院亚太所特聘研究员项昊宇向21世 ...

Group 1 - The Nikkei 225 index rose by 1.46%, with Nikkei ETFs increasing over 2%, indicating a positive market trend in Japan [1] - Foreign investors are reshaping the structure of the Japanese capital market, highlighted by Berkshire Hathaway increasing its stake in Mitsubishi Corporation to 10.23% [1] - Mitsubishi Corporation and Mitsui & Co. are engaging in discussions with Berkshire Hathaway regarding their shareholdings, reflecting ongoing interest from foreign investors [1] Group 2 - The manager of the Nikkei 225 ETF E Fund anticipates a stable domestic demand supported by a virtuous cycle of wages and inflation, despite external uncertainties [2] - The Bank of Japan is expected to gradually normalize its monetary policy, focusing on interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction, which will be key market focal points [2] - Ongoing corporate governance reforms in Japan are encouraging companies to prioritize shareholder returns, such as increasing dividends and stock buybacks, attracting long-term value investors [2] Group 3 - The Nikkei 225 index serves as a key benchmark for the Japanese stock market, reflecting the performance of 225 major blue-chip companies and the overall economic recovery [3] - The index's performance has outpaced Japan's nominal GDP growth, drawing renewed attention from global investors amid corporate governance reforms and global supply chain restructuring [3] - The E Fund manager notes that Japan's economy faces challenges from inflation, trade policy uncertainties, and geopolitical tensions, which could impact growth [3] Group 4 - Key variables to watch in the second half of the year include the outcomes of the Japanese Senate elections and progress in US-Japan tariff negotiations [4] - The Japanese stock market is expected to maintain upward momentum due to factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and strong performance in the technology sector [4] - The exchange rate of the yen will be influenced by the pace of monetary policy divergence, economic data validation, and geopolitical developments, with a slight appreciation against the RMB anticipated [4]

证券研究报告 宏观 图说日本宏观月报 | 2025 年 8 月 第十三期 概览：关税拖累出口，但整体看日本经济维持复苏态势：二季度日本 GDP 超预期增长，8 月制造业 PMI 超预期回升，消费增速回升，投资维持韧性， 而通胀边际降温。日央行加息预期小幅上行，美日利差收窄、日元升值；美 日达成关税协议等多重因素推动日股上涨，日经 225 创历史新高；市场对 日本财政可持续性的担忧加剧，推动日本 30 年期国债收益率升破 3.2%。 1. 实体经济走势：经济维持修复态势，通胀边际降温 日本 8 月制造业 PMI 上行，显示制造业周期延续修复。日本 8 月综合 PMI 升至 51.9，其中制造业 PMI 升至 49.9 接近荣枯线，服务业 PMI 则从 53.6 回落至 52.7，但仍维持在扩张区间。 劳工市场边际走强，消费增速回升。就业市场边际走强：6 月正式员工人数 上升，新增岗位空缺和申请人数之比回升至 2.2，名义工资增速回升至 2.2%， 失业率持平于 2.5%。居民收入推动消费增速有所回升。6 月日本零售总额 环比（季调后）回升至 0.9%，食品、服装和一般商品零售环比均明显回升， 同时消费者活动预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing interest in Japan's financial and real estate markets, particularly following Warren Buffett's investments in Japanese assets, which have contributed to significant gains in the Nikkei index over the past two years [2][4]. Group 1: Japan's Economic Recovery - Japan's economy is emerging from the "lost three decades," with inflation returning in 2024 and a notable increase in employee wages, which rose by 5.25% in the latest labor negotiations, marking the highest level in 34 years [4]. - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds reached its highest level since 2008 on July 23, 2024, indicating a shift in the economic landscape [4]. Group 2: Real Estate Market Dynamics - Following the burst of the real estate bubble, Japan's rental and sales ratios have become more attractive, with core cities like Tokyo experiencing a rise in real estate prices in recent years [5]. - The article mentions a previous successful research trip to Tokyo, which focused on various sectors including real estate, finance, and healthcare, leading to the current trip to Osaka and Kyoto to further explore these opportunities [5]. Group 3: Research Trip Details - The upcoming research trip from September 8 to 13, 2025, will include in-depth investigations into the real estate and cosmetics industries, featuring discussions with executives from notable companies like Ze Yu Group and TOA [12][16]. - Participants will also visit significant cultural sites and engage in activities such as experiencing Japanese whisky production at the Yamazaki Distillery and exploring the Panasonic Museum [37][35]. Group 4: Expert Guidance - The research trip will be led by experienced financial experts, including renowned economists who will provide insights into Japan's economic opportunities and asset allocation strategies [49][42].

周一（8月4日）亚盘早盘，美元兑日元上涨，目前交投于147附近，截止北京时间11:14分，美元兑日元 报价147.60，上涨0.16%，上一交易日美元兑日元收盘为147.36。日本央行行长植田和男在最新政策会 议后的记者会上释放积极信号，指出日本经济正处于"温和复苏"轨道。 美元兑日元动能已略微转向看空。若美元兑日元跌破147.00，下一个支撑位将是7月24日的波动低点 145.85，紧接着是100日与50日简单移动平均线的交汇点145.71。若跌破该位置，将面临144.00关口的考 验。 植田特别强调，新达成的美日贸易协定有效降低了宏观经济不确定性，为日本经济前景注入稳定性。最 新公布的6月经济数据印证了这一判断：工业产出环比增长1.7%，超出市场预期；零售销售同比增长 2.0%，显示国内消费保持韧性。这些积极数据强化了市场对日本经济持续复苏的信心，也进一步巩固 了投资者对央行后续加息的预期。受此影响，日元汇率获得有力支撑，兑美元汇率从近期低点显著反 弹。分析人士认为，若经济复苏态势延续，日本央行可能在年底前启动货币政策正常化进程，这将为日 元提供持续上行动力。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：日本经济正在温和复苏，但存在一些疲软。 ...

日本经济展望大体没有变化。 日本央行行长植田和男：日本与美国的贸易协议是一个巨大的进展。 温和调整后日本经济正在复苏。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida stated that despite some sectors still showing signs of weakness, the Japanese economy has achieved a moderate recovery [1] Economic Recovery - The Japanese economy is experiencing a moderate recovery, indicating positive trends in overall economic performance [1] - Certain sectors continue to exhibit weakness, suggesting that the recovery may not be uniform across all industries [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida stated that despite some sectors still showing signs of weakness, the Japanese economy has achieved a moderate recovery [1] Economic Recovery - The Japanese economy is experiencing a moderate recovery, indicating positive trends in overall economic performance [1] - Certain sectors continue to exhibit weakness, suggesting that the recovery is not uniform across all industries [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant decline in Japan's real wages, which fell by 2.9% year-on-year in May, marking the largest drop in nearly two years, indicating a continuous erosion of household purchasing power due to inflation [1][3] - Despite nominal wages increasing by 1.0% year-on-year to 300,100 yen (approximately 14,900 RMB), the growth rate has notably slowed compared to April, primarily due to a sharp decline of 18.7% in special compensation, which includes unstable bonuses and one-time income [3][5] - The consumer price index, which is used to calculate real wages and includes fresh food but excludes rent, rose by 4.0% year-on-year in May, outpacing the nominal wage increase, thus highlighting the struggle of households against rising prices [3][5] Group 2 - A report from a labor organization indicated that average wages for union workers saw the largest increase in 34 years, yet the overall wage data presents a weak picture due to the slower wage growth in many non-unionized small enterprises [5][7] - There is a contradictory signal as household spending in May rose at the fastest pace in nearly three years, suggesting some resilience in consumption despite declining purchasing power [5][7] - Analysts suggest that the full impact of the wage increases from the spring labor negotiations may not be reflected in the statistics until summer, making sustained wage growth crucial for maintaining consumer momentum and supporting Japan's economic recovery [7][8]