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15%关税协议,终结日本资本的“大航海时代”?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-24 07:51
Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the recent trade agreement between the US and Japan, while providing a short-term boost to the Japanese stock market, may signal the end of a significant era of Japanese capital flowing overseas, known as the "Age of Exploration" [1] - The agreement includes a 15% tariff on Japanese goods, including automobiles, which is lower than the previous 25% tariff on global auto imports, leading to a positive market reaction as it exceeded pessimistic expectations [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the long-term impact of the agreement may reduce Japan's demand for US Treasury bonds and other foreign securities, indicating a potential decline in capital inflow into global markets, particularly US assets [1][2][4] Group 2 - The trade agreement is expected to reshape the trade balance between the US and Japan, with the 15% tariff likely compressing Japan's trade surplus with the US, as the US market is crucial for Japanese exports [2] - Over the past 20 years, Japanese investors have purchased foreign securities at a rate nearly three times that of foreign investors buying Japanese securities, highlighting Japan's significant capital outflow [2][3] - Prior to the trade agreement, there was already a noticeable decline in Japan's enthusiasm for US Treasury bonds, suggesting that the trend of capital flowing overseas was slowing down even before the agreement was reached [4]