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上证基金评级分析2026年第1期:股混基金超额收益效应回落,债基持券评级中枢上移
Shanghai Securities· 2026-02-12 04:20
Performance Analysis - In Q4, the average return of heavily held stocks in mixed funds was 2.84%, outperforming the average return of all A-shares at 2.62% and the CSI 800 component stocks at 1.04%[1] - Among 31 first-level industries, 22 industries' heavily held stocks outperformed their benchmark industry indices, with an average excess return of 1.87%[1] - The performance of stock funds in Q4 showed a decline of 2.11%, underperforming the CSI All Share Index which increased by 1.01%[6] Fund Rating Overview - A total of 9,215 funds were included in the three-year rating, with 1,379 (14.96%) rated as five-star funds[5] - For the five-year rating, 5,265 funds were included, with 738 (14.91%) rated as five-star funds[5] Risk Management and Efficiency - The risk-return efficiency of bond funds improved significantly, with a notable increase in returns and a decrease in volatility[21] - The average return of pure bond funds was 0.52%, outperforming the total wealth index of bonds at 0.33%[10] Market Timing Ability - The average stock position for equity funds increased by 0.99 percentage points to 91.19%, while mixed funds increased by 1.42 percentage points to 74.29%[19] - The bond fund's holding level decreased by 0.49 percentage points, indicating poor allocation effectiveness[19] Long-term Performance Tracking - Since 2015, the three-year return of five-star ordinary stock fund combinations was 296.11%, compared to only 67.35% for the CSI All Share Index[3] - The probability of five-star funds maintaining performance in the top 40% of their category within 6 months to 1 year is approximately 60%[29]