旺季需求疲软，维持"增持"评级 2025H1 公司营收88.39 亿元，同比-0.24%；扣非前后归母净利润8.65、8.55 亿元，同 比-4.03%、-3.72%。2025Q2 公司营收44.84 亿元，同比-1.84%，扣非前后归母净利润3.92、3.88 亿元， 同比-12.7%、-12.26%。旺季需求承压，需求改善尚需时间，我们下调2025-2027 年归母净利润预测 11.29/11.81/12.46 亿元（前次11.94/12.51/13.20 亿元），对应2025-2027 年EPS 2.33/2.44/2.57 元，当前股 价对应2025-2027 年23.8/22.8/21.6 倍PE，公司分红率、股息率较高，维持"增持"评级。 现金流良好，高股息对股价仍有较强支撑 2025Q2 旺季受餐饮等需求疲软影响，导致收入承压，结构上有所下移，华南等高端市场有所下降，等 待需求逐步改善。公司分红率较高，现金流良好，高分红、高股息有望延续。 风险提示：成本过快上涨风险、雨水天气风险、食品安全风险。 餐饮需求疲软导致结构有所承压 2025Q2 公司啤酒销量同比持平、吨价同比-1.9%，其中分档次看， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chongqing Beer is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The report indicates that demand is stabilizing, but the recovery is expected to take time. The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 downwards due to weak seasonal demand [4][5] - The company reported a revenue of 8.839 billion yuan in H1 2025, a slight decrease of 0.24% year-on-year, with net profits showing a decline of 4.03% [4] - The report highlights that the company has a high dividend payout ratio and good cash flow, which are expected to support the stock price [7] Financial Summary - For Q2 2025, the company’s revenue was 4.484 billion yuan, down 1.84% year-on-year, with net profits declining by 12.7% [4][6] - The company’s beer sales remained flat year-on-year in Q2 2025, with a slight decrease in average price per ton by 1.9% [5] - The gross profit margin improved by 0.76 percentage points due to a decrease in raw material costs, while the net profit margin decreased by 1.09 percentage points [6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 2.33 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.8 times [9] Market Performance - The current stock price is 55.26 yuan, with a market capitalization of 26.744 billion yuan [1] - The stock has experienced a turnover rate of 50.17% over the past three months [1]