春夏秋冬四季配置理论
Search documents
关键时刻,私募大佬吴伟志发声!
中国基金报· 2026-01-22 05:37
Core Viewpoint - The current market is characterized by a "summer" phase of a bull market, with active trading, accelerated sector rotation, and a broadening profit effect, but without signs of full-blown bubble or extreme sentiment, indicating that both time and space have not yet peaked [2][5]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Compared to major global markets, the recent rise in the Chinese stock market is more of a "catch-up" rather than a "bubble," with the A-share market still undervalued despite a significant rebound in 2025 [4][6]. - As of the third quarter of 2025, the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 index is approximately 14 times, significantly lower than the S&P 500 (about 29 times) and the Nasdaq (about 42 times), indicating a relative undervaluation [6]. - The foundation of the bull market in China is solid, supported by the unshakeable advantage of the manufacturing sector, underestimated technological strength, cautious global corporate capital expenditure, and supportive policies [7]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The company identifies five key "hard asset" investment directions: "Technology Innovation+", pharmaceutical and biotechnology, supply-side reversal of resource products, gold, and high-dividend assets [8][9]. - In the "Technology Innovation+" sector, internet platform companies are experiencing a valuation recovery post-antitrust adjustments, with strong cash flows and enhanced dividends, while AI-enabled new businesses are emerging [9][10]. - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is entering a harvest phase, with innovative drug development yielding global licensing opportunities, and the industry is at a historical low in valuation after four years of deep adjustment [10]. - The supply-side reversal of resource products is driven by a significant lack of capital expenditure over the past five years, coupled with rigid demand growth in new energy, military, and AI hardware, leading to a supply gap for key metals [10]. - Gold assets are gaining value as a non-credit asset amid global de-dollarization and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, with potential support for gold prices if the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates [10]. - High-dividend assets, such as those in the power, telecommunications, and banking sectors, provide stable cash flows in a declining interest rate environment, serving as a ballast in investment portfolios, especially during periods of increased volatility [10].