格隆汇8月24日｜中信证券研报认为，鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上发言与我们此前预期相符，预计美联 储年内将连续降息三次，每次25bps。资产方面，我们认为美股市场"降息交易"的主线将重新明确，"补 涨"的交易逻辑将主导接下来的美股市场，类似于2024年7月"降息交易"中对利率敏感的罗素2000、标普 500房地产和纳指生物技术上涨的行情或将再度上演。市场对美联储年内降息预期与我们的观点仍有一 定距离，我们预计美债利率和美元指数仍有小幅下行空间。非美权益方面，鲍威尔鸽派发言和较弱美元 预计能提振全球权益市场风险偏好。黄金方面，降息预期提振利好金价，但需警惕俄乌可能达成协议带 来的利空。 ...

一、先复盘：你的操作为什么 "该吃肉却喝汤"？（不是错，是优化空间）? 你提到的两个核心案例 —— 半导体炸板反包、稳定币连板，看似都是 "大肉机会"，但最终只喝汤，本 质是 "卖票模式的纪律性" 和 "市场超预期走势" 的博弈，不是操作失误，反而体现了你的风险意识，我 们先拆透背后逻辑：? 1. 半导体炸板反包："按模式卖" 没毛病，但可加个 "观察窗口"? 你的操作逻辑：昨天炸板（单票少板 1 亿，说明尾盘抛压大），今天按既定模式卖出 —— 这符合之前 说的 "铁律 3：尾盘大涨适当减仓""铁律 1：不贪多"，毕竟炸板后次日能反包涨停是 "小概率超预期"， 多数情况是低开回调，你能避开 "吃面风险" 已经赢了第一步；? 优化点：下次遇到 "炸板但量能没崩" 的票（比如昨天半导体炸板时，全天量能比前一天缩≤10%，且没 跌破 5 日线），可以在今天早盘留个 "30 分钟观察窗口"：? 若早盘低开≤2%，且 10 点前能拉回 5 日线以上（比如今天半导体低开 1.5%，9:50 拉回 5 日线），就多 拿 1 小时；若 10 点后还在 5 日线下，再按原模式卖 —— 这样既能守住纪律，又能抓住 "反包小概率机 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a general recovery in July, with major indices rising, particularly the ChiNext Index, influenced by improved market sentiment and policy catalysts [2] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a volatile upward trend in July, with the Hang Seng Technology Index and Hang Seng Composite Index increasing by 7.1% and 6.7% respectively, due to easing overseas disturbances and a recovery in domestic risk appetite [2] Group 2 - The market is expected to reach new highs in the second half of the year, transitioning from policy-driven to fundamental and liquidity-driven dynamics, with potential for a breakout above the 2024 mid-year peak [3] - Focus on sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies and potential rebound opportunities, particularly in coal, steel, photovoltaic, and building materials, with a rotational rebound characteristic anticipated [3] - Key industries to watch include electronics and machinery, with specific attention to chemical fibers, engineering machinery, military electronics, aerospace equipment, and automation equipment [3] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Index has surpassed previous highs and is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by strong overall profitability and relatively low valuations in sectors like internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5] - The "dumbbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on sectors benefiting from domestic supportive policies in the context of US-China competition, as well as independent internet technology companies [5] - High dividend and low volatility strategies are also advised, particularly in telecommunications, public utilities, and banking sectors, providing stable income as a foundational investment [5]

Group 1 - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets showed signs of recovery in July, with major indices generally rising, driven by improved market sentiment and policy catalysts. The ChiNext index had the highest increase of 8.7%, while the Shanghai Composite Index had the smallest increase of 3.1% [1][8] - The steel, construction materials, and non-ferrous metals sectors performed well due to ongoing anti-involution policies and infrastructure projects like the Yajiang Hydropower Station [1][8] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a steady upward trend, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 7.1% and the Hang Seng Index by 5.5% as of July 25, 2025 [1][10] Group 2 - The A-share market is expected to reach new highs in the second half of the year, transitioning from policy-driven to fundamentals and liquidity-driven growth, with potential to surpass the peak of the second half of 2024 [2][12] - Focus on sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies, including coal, steel, photovoltaic, and construction materials, as well as opportunities in electronics and machinery equipment [2][13] - The market is anticipated to exhibit a "rotation and rebound" characteristic, with attention on industries that have lagged behind but have shown strong historical performance [2][13] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Index has surpassed previous highs and is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by strong profitability in the Hong Kong market and low valuations in sectors like internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals [3][19] - The "dumbbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on technology growth and high dividend yield sectors, including telecommunications, utilities, and banking [3][19] - Key stocks for August 2025 in the A-share market include Dongfang Caifu, Hainan Huatie, and Huayou Cobalt, while the Hong Kong stock recommendations include China Life, Xinhua Insurance, and Tencent Holdings [3][24][28]

Group 1 - The sentiment in the market is pessimistic, with a desire for a bull market but a reluctance for bank stocks to rise, as their performance is seen as a barometer for the broader financial sector [1] - The U.S. has increased tariffs on steel and aluminum products from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, 2025, which may lead to a defensive investment approach focusing on sectors like liquor, securities, and technology [3] - Despite the potential for a market correction, sectors such as liquor, securities, and insurance are expected to provide a buffer against significant declines, as the banking sector has been propping up the index [5] Group 2 - Investment strategies should align with individual profit goals; for instance, a target of 10% annual returns may be more achievable through index funds rather than individual stocks, which require careful selection [7] - The banking sector has shown limited growth, with an average increase of only 30% this year, suggesting that holding index funds may not meet higher profit expectations [7]