你发现没？2026年初的黄金简直疯了！去金店问价，足金饰品直接飙到1100元/克，工艺金条也站在了 1040元/克的关口，比去年同期贵了近200元。 国际上更夸张，现货黄金稳稳站住4480美元/盎司，高盛直接放话，年底大概率能冲到4900美元。 说句实在话，要是按老辈人的思路，黄金涨成这样，肯定是通胀要来了。 但咱们翻遍全球数据才发现，不管是美国、欧洲还是咱们中国，通胀数据都温温和和的，既没大幅抬 头，也没引发市场恐慌。这就说明，这波黄金暴涨，压根跟通胀没关系！ 我跟你讲，真正的幕后推手，是全球资金的定价逻辑早就换了赛道。麦通MSX研究院的程智鹏说得明 白，现在市场都在绕开那些被扭曲的经济指标，转而盯着三个核心东西： 国家的"家庭账本"（主权资产负债表）、货币的"靠谱程度"（货币质量）、实物资产的"真实价值"（黄 金这类硬资产）。 这就是所谓的"三角定价框架"，咱们今天用大白话把它拆透，看完你就懂黄金为啥能一路疯涨了。 一、金价飙涨，通胀真不是主角 2026年开年第一天，黄金就给市场来了个"下马威"。1月3日当天，现货黄金直接冲破4400美元/盎司， 哪怕后续有点回调，也始终在4400美元以上晃悠，妥妥的高位 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices reached inflation-adjusted levels not seen since the Carter administration, indicating a strong demand for safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainties [1][2] - Silver surged by 146%, leading all major asset classes, driven by demand from solar panels, data centers, and electric vehicles [1][3] - The VIX, a measure of market volatility, decreased by 16%, suggesting that Wall Street remained relatively unfazed by geopolitical tensions and economic challenges [2] Group 2 - The performance of hard assets, such as gold, silver, and copper, was favored over digital assets due to factors like AI developments, tariff issues, and a weaker dollar [3] - Energy prices initially held steady despite geopolitical conflicts but later declined due to concerns over oversupply [2] - The demand for copper and silver is expected to continue, supported by their essential roles in technology and renewable energy sectors [3]

12月24日，回顾2025年的金融市场，主流资产的表现呈现出极大的分化。GTC泽汇资本观察到，尽管市 场此前对比特币寄予厚望，认为其能作为抵御通胀的利器，但其全年的波动表现却差强人意，不仅未能 跑赢传统避险资产黄金，甚至大幅落后于纳斯达克100指数。然而，这种滞后性往往孕育着新的市场机 遇，随着价格与基本面价值的偏离程度达到阶段性高点，反弹的动能正在蓄势。 在宏观金融环境方面，货币信用体制正面临长期的考验。GTC泽汇资本认为，全球主要经济体为了应对 庞大的公共债务与财政开支，对"货币印钞"的依赖度难以在短期内降低，这直接导致了法定货币购买力 的持续摊薄。在这种大背景下，全球资本对于"硬资产"的渴求正从单一品种向多元化扩散。 黄金作为传统硬资产的代表，其表现已印证了这一逻辑。GTC泽汇资本表示，黄金价格在过去一年中展 现了惊人的爆发力，涨幅超过70%，目前已站稳每盎司4492美元上方。随着市场预期金价将在2026年向 5000美元大关发起冲击，这种强势的避险情绪将产生明显的溢出效应，进而带动同样具有稀缺属性的数 字资产进入上升通道。 针对比特币的后续走势，GTC泽汇资本认为，尽管当前的流动性收紧与风险偏好下行压 ...

Group 1 - The company has previously identified key entry points for gold and silver, with gold's bottom at 2,000 and silver's bottom at 24, leading to significant price increases since then [1] - The current market is experiencing a massive correction, which is typical for commodities that often see parabolic rises followed by crashes [2] - The company is monitoring psychological price levels, specifically around 4,000 for gold and 45 for silver, to gauge market behavior and potential buying interest [2] Group 2 - The company expresses a willingness to be patient in the current market, having previously achieved substantial gains in both gold and silver [1] - Observing the market's reaction at critical price points will inform future investment decisions, particularly if prices reach the identified levels [2] - The presence of buyers at these key levels will be a positive indicator for the company moving forward [2]

Core Insights - Inflation is eroding the purchasing power of cash savings, making it a significant concern for individuals [1][2] - The current economic environment is characterized by slow global recovery, fluctuating central bank policies, and geopolitical risks, leading to asset devaluation pressures [2] Group 1: Cash and Inflation - The belief that saving money in banks is a safe choice is a dangerous illusion in a high inflation environment [2] - Actual inflation rates are significantly higher than official CPI figures, increasing the risk associated with holding cash [2][6] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Successful investors should focus on "hard assets" and companies with a "high moat" that can pass on cost increases to consumers [4][7] - Investing in funds that track high-tech indices or essential consumer goods indices is a simpler and effective strategy for ordinary investors [5] Group 3: Asset Allocation - Gold is recognized as an effective tool for hedging against currency devaluation, serving as a "lifeboat" during financial turmoil [7] - Companies with strong brand power, technological barriers, or monopolistic positions can maintain or increase profit margins despite rising costs [7] Group 4: Leveraging Debt - In an inflationary environment, quality debt can become an ally, as fixed-rate loans become easier to repay over time [8] - The strategy involves using low-cost, controllable long-term debt to acquire quality assets that yield returns exceeding the loan interest rates [8] Group 5: Call to Action - The key to navigating inflation is proactive learning and decisive action, rather than complacency [9] - Individuals are encouraged to reassess their cash holdings and invest in resilient "hard assets" and "high moat" companies [9][10]

Market Overview - The market experienced a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high during the session, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index showed slight declines [1][10] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 151.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Northern Copper and Shengda Resources hitting the daily limit [1][15] - The chip sector was active, with companies such as Chipone Technology and Demingli reaching their daily limits [2][22] - The real estate sector showed a rebound, with stocks like Rongsheng Development and Suning Universal also hitting the daily limit [1][5] Individual Stock Highlights - A total of 50 stocks hit the daily limit, with a sealing rate of 87%, and 17 stocks achieved consecutive limit-ups [1] - Notable stocks included Suning Universal and Qingshan Paper, both achieving four consecutive limit-ups [1][14] - In the storage chip sector, Demingli and other companies saw significant price increases, with Demingli rising by 10% [4][23] Global Metal Prices - On September 11, London Metal Exchange (LME) prices for aluminum, zinc, nickel, copper, lead, and tin all increased, with aluminum rising by 2.06% to $2,679.00 per ton [3][15] - Analysts attribute the rise in metal prices to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has led to increased demand for hard assets [3] Real Estate Policy Changes - Following adjustments in housing purchase restrictions in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, the Shenzhen real estate market has also seen positive changes, with increased online consultations and property viewings [5][13] Semiconductor Developments - Kioxia announced a collaboration with NVIDIA to develop a new type of SSD that is nearly 100 times faster than traditional SSDs [5][22] - The storage chip sector is expected to remain active, with companies like Micron Technology anticipated to provide strong earnings guidance in their upcoming financial reports [4][22]

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased by $14 or 0.15% to $9,533.50 per ton on May 21, driven by investor concerns over rising U.S. debt levels and a weakening dollar, prompting a search for hard assets [1][3] - The three-month copper price reached a six-week high of $9,664 per ton, supported by easing trade concerns, although optimism is waning [3] - Technical analysis indicates strong support for copper at $9,500 per ton, with a short-term target of $9,950 per ton if no significant negative macroeconomic events occur [3] Group 2 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to increased government debt and interest payment ratios, changing the outlook from "negative" to "stable" [3] - The global refined copper production for Q1 2025 was 7.2832 million tons, with consumption at 7.0125 million tons, resulting in a surplus of 270,800 tons [5] - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics reported that global refined copper production in March 2025 was 2.5135 million tons, with consumption at 2.493 million tons, leading to a surplus of 20,500 tons [4]