对于还有熊市记忆的老股民来说，现在的股市是越涨越恐慌，担心哪一天来一根长阴，然后几个月白干。 实际上很多老股民在这个位置已经开始撤出观望了。 但是今天的大盘再次给了惊喜，上午低开冲高回落，下午在半导体、消费板块的带领下强劲回升，收盘涨1.04%，也是8月份首次涨幅超过1%的一天。 对踏空资金来说，下跌就是倒车接人的好机会，跌幅越大越敢出手。比如上午算力相关方向恐慌性下跌， 今年涨了210%的大牛股新易盛，低开以后就一 顿猛杀，最大跌幅8%，但资金承接能力也超强，收盘跌幅仅剩0.64%。 高盛预计A股大概有10万亿场外资金蠢蠢欲动，这10万亿是怎么计算出来的呢？它按照疫情后的超高储蓄增速减去疫情前正常储蓄增速，得出有55万亿元 "超额存款"，如果这部分金融资产中，有22%配置于基金或股票，意味着潜在流入市场的资金可能超过10万亿元。 这种预测是不是有点过于乐观了？因为疫情后的储蓄快速增长，是居民为了应对不确定性、投资回报率降低而增加的储蓄，目前宏观不确定性仍未消除， 对未来的预期也没有彻底扭转，所以超额存款部分拿出22%的部分有点过高。 昨天说到上面有调控指数的意愿和能力，让牛市走得更稳更远，而且顶层对资本市场 ...

水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 适可而止 盘面消息 A股三大指数今日震荡整理，截止收盘，沪指跌0.02%，收报3727.29点；深证成指跌 0.12%，收报11821.63点；创业板指跌0.17%，收报2601.74点。 沪深两市成交额25884 亿，较昨日缩量1758亿。 小水看盘 忐忑不安了一天，收盘后终于松了一口气。 今天三大指数均冲高回落，上证收盘跌 0.02%，深成指跌0.12%，创业板跌0.17%。个股方 面，上涨 个 数多于下跌 个 数，上涨 2984家，下跌2255家。主力资金今 天 流出 710亿， 仅次于8月14日的900亿。成交量为2.57万亿，较昨天减少1800亿。 之所以忐忑，是担心 " 慢牛变快牛、快牛变疯牛 " ，导致好不容易盼来的牛市就此葬送。从 过去 5个交易日的走势来看，这种担心并非空穴来风，更不是杞人忧天。 5个交易日内，创业板从2409点涨至2634点，涨幅9.3%；深成指从11351点涨至11919 点，涨幅约5%；受权重股压制，上证从3665点涨至3745点，虽创新高，但涨幅仅2.11%。 成交量从2万亿出头增至接近2.8万亿，放量40%，显然放量过快。 北 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of a bull market in the A-share market, highlighting the significant rise in the Shanghai Composite Index and the influx of new retail investors, while also cautioning that not all investors may benefit from this market trend [4][8]. Market Performance - On August 18, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten-year high of 3741.29 points, marking a 22.6% increase from the low in April [4]. - The A-share market's total market capitalization surpassed 100 trillion yuan for the first time, with 4625 stocks rising and 104 hitting the daily limit [4]. Bull Market Indicators - Key indicators for determining a bull market include a sustained index increase of over 20%, broad participation from various stocks, stable trading volumes averaging 1-2 trillion yuan, and a significant rise in new retail investors [6]. - In July, 196.36 million new A-share accounts were opened, a 31.72% increase from June, contributing to a total of 1456.13 million new accounts in 2023, a 36.88% year-on-year increase [6]. Market Sentiment and Economic Implications - While the current market sentiment suggests a bull market, the transition from a rising stock market to improved economic conditions is complex and uncertain [8]. - Historical examples of "fast bull" markets show that rapid increases can lead to severe corrections, as seen in 2007 and 2015, where declines reached 70% and over 50%, respectively [9]. Slow Bull vs. Fast Bull - A slow bull market, characterized by gradual increases and lower volatility, allows for better investment strategies and risk management compared to a fast bull market, which is often driven by speculation [11]. - The current market shows signs of a slow bull, with a shift in financing towards technology and industrial sectors, reducing the risk of capital idling seen in previous bull markets [14]. Monetary Policy and Economic Activity - Recent improvements in monetary indicators, such as M2 growth at 8.8% and M1 growth at 5.6%, suggest increased liquidity and economic activity, with M1 growth indicating a shift towards more active capital [12]. - The current financing landscape shows 66% of funds directed towards technology, industrial, and material sectors, with over 45% focused on hard technology areas like semiconductors and renewable energy [14]. Long-term Market Outlook - The potential for a prolonged bull market similar to the U.S. market is uncertain, as domestic companies still face challenges in achieving high profitability and consistent dividends [15]. - The article emphasizes the importance of a comprehensive approach to capital management, including buybacks and dividends, to sustain investor confidence and market stability [16]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on industry leaders and niche market players, emphasizing the importance of risk management and the potential for future recovery even in a slow bull market [27]. - The article highlights the need for investors to maintain a disciplined approach, avoiding emotional trading behaviors that can lead to losses [21][26].