21世纪经济报道记者 刘夏菲 8月以来，A股持续冲高，沪指一度冲击3900点大关。进入9月，A股延续上行趋势的同时，板块轮动加 快。如何看待当前A股市场所处的阶段，本轮上涨行情的持续性如何？如何利用好ETF等工具调动更多 投资者参与其中？ 在9月12日举办的申万宏源证券财富管理论坛，多位研究所专家、公私募机构代表及上市公司高管等嘉 宾从当前市场出发，共同探讨宏观经济、ETF生态圈、上市公司及量化私募服务等热点议题。 图：论坛现场 "当前，全球正处于'高波动、再平衡'新周期。美联储降息路径扰动流动性潮汐，地缘博弈重塑产业链 版图，AI革命引爆新一轮科技投资浪潮。国内政策加力提效、信用周期修复、剩余流动性宽裕，财富 管理行业迎来了全新机遇。"申万宏源证券党委副书记、总经理张剑在论坛开幕致辞中表示。 "长牛""慢牛"逻辑凸显 "在2025年的四月份，中国资本市场可能就已经开启了一轮'慢牛'。"申万宏源研究总经理、首席策略分 析师王胜认为，当前"长牛""慢牛"的市场条件已经比较充分。 从基本面层面来看，一方面，通过反内卷与供给侧结构性改革，中长期行业供需格局得到明显改善；另 一方面，科创企业持续成长，"人工智能+"必 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of a "slow bull market" and compares it with historical examples from the US, Japan, and India, emphasizing the characteristics and mechanisms that could lead to such a market in the current context [2][3][5]. Group 1: Characteristics of Slow Bull Markets - The US S&P 500 index has shown a "slow bull" characteristic with a long-term high win rate, starting from approximately 1400 points in 2000 and reaching 6380 points by August 2025, with an annualized growth rate of about 8% [3]. - India's Sensex index has demonstrated a "two steps forward, one step back" pattern, starting from 3000 points in 2002 and reaching 80687 points by August 2025, with a cumulative increase of 26 times and an annualized return of 15% [5]. - Japan's Nikkei 225 index has shown small annual drawdowns since 2014, starting from 16000 points and reaching 42050 points by August 2025, with a total increase of 163% over 11 years [5]. Group 2: Mechanisms for Long Bull Markets - Economic growth rates are not necessarily correlated with long bull markets, as evidenced by Japan's low GDP growth during its bull market period [5][6]. - The contribution of earnings growth and dividend income to total returns increases over time, highlighting the importance of these factors in sustaining long-term market performance [6][7]. - A report indicates that A-shares have seen a significant decline in fundraising since 2023, while the scale of dividends and buybacks has been increasing, suggesting a shift towards a more favorable investment environment [8]. Group 3: Wealth Effect and Market Dynamics - The wealth effect, risk appetite, and the movement of deposits are crucial for the long-term market trends, with historical data showing that positive cash flow into stocks often precedes significant bull markets [10][11]. - The concept of "deposit migration" among domestic residents is seen as a potential driver for a "slow bull" market, creating a positive feedback loop of market confidence and capital inflow [11].

Group 1 - The recent A-share market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% and surpassing 3700 points, supported by factors such as expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and ongoing domestic monetary easing [1] - The Chinese stock market suffers from a "short bull" syndrome, characterized by short-term surges followed by long-term stagnation, leading to psychological impacts on investors [2][3] - The lack of "super enterprises" in China, which possess sustainable growth capabilities, is a significant factor affecting the long-term performance of the capital market [9][10] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market's strength is attributed to the dominance of large, successful companies, with 40 out of the top 100 global companies being American [4] - The distinction between large enterprises and "super enterprises" is crucial, as not all large companies have the capacity for sustained growth, which is necessary for a robust capital market [9][10] - The Chinese market lacks a sufficient number of "super enterprises" that can drive long-term growth, resulting in a structural shortfall compared to the U.S. market [10][11] Group 3 - A clear and significant turning point is needed for the Chinese stock market to achieve long-term growth, which includes stable national support for enterprise development and the removal of unnecessary restrictions [11][12] - The macroeconomic environment's stability and support for businesses are more critical than short-term industrial policies, indicating that sustained policy implementation could lead to a bullish market [12][13]

Group 1 - The current stock market is causing anxiety among seasoned investors who have memories of bear markets, leading many to withdraw and observe [1] - The market experienced a surprising recovery, closing up 1.04%, marking the first time in August that the index rose over 1%, driven by the semiconductor and consumer sectors [2] - Goldman Sachs estimates that there is approximately 10 trillion yuan of off-market funds ready to enter the A-share market, calculated from the excess savings accumulated post-pandemic [2] Group 2 - Concerns are raised about the optimism of the 10 trillion yuan estimate, as the rapid increase in savings post-pandemic was primarily a response to uncertainty and lower investment returns [4] - A comparison of household deposits to total market capitalization shows that the ratio has been mostly between 1.1 and 2.0 since 2010, indicating potential for further market movement [4] - The report from Guosen Securities suggests that a long-term bull market requires specific conditions, referencing historical bull markets in Japan, India, and the US [6] Group 3 - The US stock market is widely regarded as a long-term bull asset, with the S&P 500 index rising from approximately 1400 points in 2000 to 6380 points by August 2025, reflecting an annualized growth rate of about 8% [8] - The Indian Sensex index has shown extreme long-term bull characteristics, increasing from 3000 points in 2002 to 80687 points by August 2025, with a cumulative increase of 26 times and an annualized return of 15% [9] - The Japanese stock market has also exhibited a localized long-term bull market since 2014, with the Nikkei 225 index rising from 16000 points to 42050 points by August 2025, demonstrating a 163% increase over 11 years [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for caution in the current market environment, highlighting the risks of excessive speculation and rapid price increases that could jeopardize the ongoing bull market [3][4][5]. Market Performance - The three major indices in the A-share market experienced slight declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.02% to 3727.29 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.12% to 11821.63 points, and the ChiNext down 0.17% to 2601.74 points [2][3]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 25,884 billion, a decrease of 1,758 billion from the previous day [2]. Recent Trends - Over the past five trading days, the ChiNext rose from 2409 points to 2634 points, a gain of 9.3%, while the Shenzhen Component increased from 11351 points to 11919 points, a rise of approximately 5% [3]. - The trading volume surged by 40%, indicating a rapid increase in market activity, which raises concerns about sustainability [3]. Speculative Behavior - There has been a notable trend of speculative trading in concept stocks and micro-cap stocks, with significant price movements observed in companies like Cambrian Biologics, which saw a nearly 50% increase in five days [4]. - The article warns that such speculative behavior could lead to severe market corrections if the trend continues [4]. Sector Performance - The article notes that consumer and real estate sectors showed strength, with stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye rising by 0.67% and 0.53%, respectively [5]. - Conversely, sectors such as insurance, securities, and new energy faced declines, with stocks like SMIC and CATL dropping by 3.11% and 1.84% [5]. Company Analysis - The performance of Dongfang Fortune, which reported a 37% increase in half-year earnings, is contrasted with its high price-to-earnings ratio of 38 times, raising questions about its valuation amidst a competitive market [6]. - The article highlights the disparity in performance among brokerage firms, with many experiencing significant year-on-year growth, yet facing challenges in maintaining high valuations [6]. External Market Influences - The Hang Seng Index showed little movement, remaining stable, while the stock of Oriental Selection experienced extreme volatility, with a 50% price swing within an hour, indicating potential market manipulation [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of a bull market in the A-share market, highlighting the significant rise in the Shanghai Composite Index and the influx of new retail investors, while also cautioning that not all investors may benefit from this market trend [4][8]. Market Performance - On August 18, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten-year high of 3741.29 points, marking a 22.6% increase from the low in April [4]. - The A-share market's total market capitalization surpassed 100 trillion yuan for the first time, with 4625 stocks rising and 104 hitting the daily limit [4]. Bull Market Indicators - Key indicators for determining a bull market include a sustained index increase of over 20%, broad participation from various stocks, stable trading volumes averaging 1-2 trillion yuan, and a significant rise in new retail investors [6]. - In July, 196.36 million new A-share accounts were opened, a 31.72% increase from June, contributing to a total of 1456.13 million new accounts in 2023, a 36.88% year-on-year increase [6]. Market Sentiment and Economic Implications - While the current market sentiment suggests a bull market, the transition from a rising stock market to improved economic conditions is complex and uncertain [8]. - Historical examples of "fast bull" markets show that rapid increases can lead to severe corrections, as seen in 2007 and 2015, where declines reached 70% and over 50%, respectively [9]. Slow Bull vs. Fast Bull - A slow bull market, characterized by gradual increases and lower volatility, allows for better investment strategies and risk management compared to a fast bull market, which is often driven by speculation [11]. - The current market shows signs of a slow bull, with a shift in financing towards technology and industrial sectors, reducing the risk of capital idling seen in previous bull markets [14]. Monetary Policy and Economic Activity - Recent improvements in monetary indicators, such as M2 growth at 8.8% and M1 growth at 5.6%, suggest increased liquidity and economic activity, with M1 growth indicating a shift towards more active capital [12]. - The current financing landscape shows 66% of funds directed towards technology, industrial, and material sectors, with over 45% focused on hard technology areas like semiconductors and renewable energy [14]. Long-term Market Outlook - The potential for a prolonged bull market similar to the U.S. market is uncertain, as domestic companies still face challenges in achieving high profitability and consistent dividends [15]. - The article emphasizes the importance of a comprehensive approach to capital management, including buybacks and dividends, to sustain investor confidence and market stability [16]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on industry leaders and niche market players, emphasizing the importance of risk management and the potential for future recovery even in a slow bull market [27]. - The article highlights the need for investors to maintain a disciplined approach, avoiding emotional trading behaviors that can lead to losses [21][26].