Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of logistics and inventory changes on copper prices as the 2026 Spring Festival approaches, emphasizing the importance of understanding market dynamics and consumer behavior in the copper industry [2][31]. Group 1: Logistics Situation Before and After Spring Festival - Logistics operations are expected to be tighter this year compared to previous years, with early holidays for logistics companies leading to delayed recovery post-festival [8][10]. - The transportation of copper primarily relies on large trucks, with significant cost variations depending on the mode of transport, which can affect overall logistics efficiency [3][4]. - The rising fuel prices have been a major cost factor for logistics companies, impacting their profitability and operational decisions [4][7]. Group 2: Industry Holiday Schedule - Most smelting companies plan to maintain production during the Spring Festival, but logistics disruptions may affect their shipping schedules [10]. - In South China, copper rod manufacturers are largely halting production for the festival, with a significant number of companies planning to resume operations only after February 24 [11][12]. - The overall holiday schedule for various copper-related industries indicates a longer downtime compared to previous years, which may delay inventory depletion [16]. Group 3: Acceptance of High Prices by End Users - Following a surge in copper prices above 100,000, downstream processing and end-user companies exhibited reluctance to purchase at high prices, leading to a drop in transaction volumes [17][20]. - Despite initial hesitance, transaction volumes began to stabilize as prices fluctuated, indicating a potential acceptance of prices around the 100,000 mark [21]. Group 4: Expected Inventory Changes Post-Festival - Historical data suggests that copper inventories typically peak around 33 days after the Spring Festival, with this year’s peak expected to extend to 37-42 days due to delayed logistics and production recovery [26][28]. - The anticipated inventory accumulation post-festival is projected to be between 100,000 to 120,000 tons, with total inventory levels reaching approximately 420,000 to 470,000 tons [26][28]. - The price feedback loop is expected to show a decline in copper prices around t+3 to t+4, with a potential low point occurring in late March to early April [28][31].