摩根大通发布研报称，汇丰控股(00005)周四(9日)发公告，拟以协议安排方式将同系恒生银行(00011)私 有化，每股作价155港元。上述交易将令汇控的普通股权一级资本(CET1)比率下降125个基点，为维持 比率在指引范围内，汇控将在公告后的三个季度暂停股份回购。小摩预计，短期内汇率可能会下跌中单 位数百分点，若股价反应过度，则视为累积机会，给予汇控"增持"评级，目标价122港元。 该行估计，私有化恒生将减少约70亿美元的回购，预计2026年第二季度末的CET1比率为14%，长远而 言私有化可能带来正面影响。即使不考虑收入协同效应或成本优化，预计2027年每股盈利及每股股息可 较基准预测分别高出1.5%及3.1%，主要由于剔除恒生银行的少数股东权益。值得注意的是，汇控披露 其2024年香港业务的有形股本回报率为38%，而恒生同期仅报11%的股本回报率。 ...

Group 1 - UBS forecasts a significant decline in Hang Seng Bank's (00011) earnings per share for the first half of this year due to compression in net interest income (NII) and an expected rise in expected credit loss (ECL) expenses [1] - The bank is currently trading at 1.3 times the one-year forward price-to-book ratio, with a target price of HKD 112 and an estimated dividend yield of 5.4% for 2025 based on the target price [1] - Hang Seng Bank is expected to announce a new share buyback plan alongside its earnings report on July 30, despite a weak profit outlook [1] Group 2 - UBS notes that the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) has remained below 1% for a month, deviating from seasonal patterns, and predicts HIBOR will stabilize between 2% and 2.5% by year-end [2] - As a result of the low HIBOR environment, UBS has revised down its forecast for Hang Seng Bank's NII for 2025, while slightly increasing the forecast for non-interest income due to potential boosts in net fee income and trading income [2] - UBS has also slightly raised its estimate for ECL expenses for Hang Seng Bank in light of cautious views on non-performing loan (NPL) risks [2]