Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered's stock price fell by 2% on October 8, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 0.8 percentage points, potentially due to allegations of violating Iran sanctions and a £1.5 billion ($2 billion) settlement with investors [1] Group 1: Financial Impact - The actual settlement amount has not been disclosed, but the company stated that the settlement would not significantly impact its operating performance or financial condition [1] - JPMorgan expects the related expenditure to be classified as a special item by Standard Chartered in Q4 2025, which may lower the Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio and could limit share buyback potential in 2026 [1] - The negative impact on the CET1 capital ratio is anticipated to be less than approximately 13 basis points [1] Group 2: Investment Outlook - JPMorgan reiterated an "Overweight" rating for Standard Chartered with a target price of HKD 190 [1] - The forecast for Standard Chartered's CET1 capital ratio in Q4 2025 is 14%, with a projected share buyback of $2.5 billion in 2026 and a total return rate of 7.2%, the highest among banks in the Greater China region [1]

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered Group's stock price has shown a recovery of nearly 2%, trading at HKD 171.7 with a transaction volume of HKD 52.634 million, despite a previous decline related to legal settlements over sanctions violations [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock price of Standard Chartered Group fell by 2% on December 8, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 0.8 percentage points [1] - The recent recovery in stock price indicates a potential rebound following the negative news [1] Group 2: Legal Settlement - The decline in stock price may be linked to media reports regarding the group's settlement of GBP 1.5 billion (USD 2 billion) with investors over allegations of violating Iranian sanctions [1] - Although the actual settlement amount has not been disclosed, the company stated that it would not significantly impact its operational performance or financial condition [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - JPMorgan estimates that the related expenditure will be classified as a special item in the fourth quarter of 2025, with no impact on earnings per share or normalized return on tangible equity (ROTE) [1] - The settlement may reduce the common equity tier 1 capital ratio and could limit the upside for share buybacks in 2026, although the negative impact is expected to be less than approximately 13 basis points [1] - JPMorgan forecasts the common equity tier 1 capital ratio for Standard Chartered Group to be 14% in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a share buyback plan of USD 2.5 billion in 2026 and a total return rate of 7.2%, the highest among banks in the Greater China region [1]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC Holdings (00005) announced plans to privatize its subsidiary Hang Seng Bank (00011) at a price of HKD 155 per share, which will impact its Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio [1] Group 1: Transaction Details - The privatization will result in a decrease of 125 basis points in HSBC's CET1 ratio, prompting the company to suspend share buybacks for three quarters to maintain the ratio within regulatory guidelines [1] - The transaction is expected to reduce buybacks by approximately USD 7 billion [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - JPMorgan estimates that the CET1 ratio will be 14% by the end of Q2 2026, indicating a long-term positive impact from the privatization [1] - Even without considering revenue synergies or cost optimization, earnings per share and dividends per share are projected to exceed baseline forecasts by 1.5% and 3.1% respectively by 2027, primarily due to the exclusion of minority interests from Hang Seng Bank [1] Group 3: Performance Metrics - HSBC reported a tangible return on equity of 38% for its Hong Kong operations in 2024, while Hang Seng Bank reported only 11% for the same period [1]

Group 1 - UBS forecasts a significant decline in Hang Seng Bank's (00011) earnings per share for the first half of this year due to compression in net interest income (NII) and an expected rise in expected credit loss (ECL) expenses [1] - The bank is currently trading at 1.3 times the one-year forward price-to-book ratio, with a target price of HKD 112 and an estimated dividend yield of 5.4% for 2025 based on the target price [1] - Hang Seng Bank is expected to announce a new share buyback plan alongside its earnings report on July 30, despite a weak profit outlook [1] Group 2 - UBS notes that the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) has remained below 1% for a month, deviating from seasonal patterns, and predicts HIBOR will stabilize between 2% and 2.5% by year-end [2] - As a result of the low HIBOR environment, UBS has revised down its forecast for Hang Seng Bank's NII for 2025, while slightly increasing the forecast for non-interest income due to potential boosts in net fee income and trading income [2] - UBS has also slightly raised its estimate for ECL expenses for Hang Seng Bank in light of cautious views on non-performing loan (NPL) risks [2]