行 华福证券 基础化工 2025 年 12 月 28 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 基础化工 行业周报：11 月 TDI 出口量创单月历史最高，中 国合成树脂协会倡议规范聚甲醛行业秩序 投资要点： 本周板块行情：本周，上证综合指数上涨 1.88%，创业板指数上涨 3.9%， 沪深 300 上涨 1.95%，中信基础化工指数上涨 5.41%，申万化工指数上涨 4.23%。 化工各子行业板块涨跌幅：本周，化工板块涨跌幅前五的子行业分别为膜 材料(12.18%)、合成树脂(8.23%)、磷肥及磷化工(6.5%)、钾肥(5.91%)、有机硅 (5.39%)；化工板块涨跌幅后五的子行业分别为轮胎(-1.5%)、食品及饲料添加 剂(0.41%)、农药(0.96%)、绵纶(1.12%)、印染化学品(1.33%)。 投资主线二：消费电子有望逐渐复苏，关注上游材料企业。随着下游消费 电子需求逐渐回暖复苏，面板产业链相关标的有望充分受益。部分国内企业在 面板产业链部分环节成功实现进口替代，切入下游头部面板厂供应链，自身α 属性充足。随着面板产业链景气度有望回暖，头部显示材料厂商有望享受行业 β共振。建议关注：东材科技（ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6] Core Views - The chemical sector is experiencing a recovery in both prices and demand, benefiting leading companies with significant scale advantages and cost efficiencies [8] - The domestic tire industry shows strong competitiveness, with scarce growth targets worth attention [3] - The consumption electronics sector is expected to gradually recover, with upstream material companies likely to benefit [4] - The phosphorous chemical sector is tightening due to environmental policies and increasing demand from the new energy sector [5] - The vitamin market is facing supply disruptions, particularly for Vitamin A and E, due to BASF's force majeure [8] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.7%, the ChiNext Index increased by 8.58%, and the CSI 300 Index went up by 2.37% [14] - The CITIC Basic Chemical Index increased by 3.16%, while the Shenwan Chemical Index rose by 2.46% [15] Key Industry Dynamics - Covestro has cut its TDI supply to the Chinese market by 15%, exacerbating supply tightness [3] - Hengli Petrochemical's subsidiaries are merging to optimize management and improve operational efficiency [3] Investment Themes - **Tire Sector**: Domestic companies are becoming increasingly competitive, with recommended stocks including Sailun Tire, Senqcia, General Motors, and Linglong Tire [3] - **Consumer Electronics**: Recovery in demand is anticipated, with a focus on upstream material companies like Dongcai Technology and Stik [4] - **Phosphorous Chemicals**: Supply constraints due to environmental regulations and rising demand from new energy sectors suggest a tightening market [5] - **Fluorine Chemicals**: The reduction of production quotas for second-generation refrigerants supports stable profitability [5] - **Textile Sector**: Polyester filament inventory depletion is expected to benefit companies like Tongkun and New Fengming [5] Sub-industry Performance - The polyurethane sector is seeing stable prices for pure MDI and a slight decline for polymer MDI [27][32] - The tire industry shows a mixed performance with full steel tire production increasing while semi-steel tire production is declining [47][50] - The pesticide market is experiencing price fluctuations, with glyphosate prices rising slightly [52] Price Trends - The average price of urea is reported at 1762.6 RMB/ton, showing a decrease of 1.74% [60] - The price of phosphoric acid remains stable, with diammonium phosphate at 3999.38 RMB/ton [64] - The price of vitamins A and E remains unchanged at 64 RMB/kg and 67.5 RMB/kg respectively [76][77]