行 华福证券 基础化工 2025 年 11 月 22 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 基础化工 行业周报：阿克苏诺贝尔和艾仕得宣布合并，商 务部对美产进口正丙醇继续征收反倾销税 投资要点： 本周板块行情：本周，上证综合指数下跌 3.9%，创业板指数下跌 6.15%， 沪深 300 下跌 3.77%，中信基础化工指数下跌 8.24%，申万化工指数下跌 7.47%。 化工各子行业板块涨跌幅：本周，化工板块涨跌幅前五的子行业分别为橡 胶助剂(1.75%)、钾肥(-1.21%)、轮胎(-2.84%)、改性塑料(-4.32%)、膜材料 (-5.19%)；化工板块涨跌幅后五的子行业分别为绵纶(-14.92%)、涤纶(-11.88%)、 钛白粉(-10.68%)、粘胶(-10.33%)、农药(-10.09%)。 本周行业主要动态： 阿克苏诺贝尔和艾仕得宣布合并。11 月 18 日，全球两大涂料巨头阿克 苏诺贝尔和艾仕得联合宣布，两家公司已达成最终协议，将进行股票合并， 创建一家全球领先的涂料公司，年收入达 170 亿美元（约合人民币 1209 亿 元）。两家公司表示，合并后的公司业务涵盖粉末、航空航天、修补漆、 移 ...

| 3、请问公司产品主要应用在哪些行业中？公司产品处于行 | | --- | | 业什么地位，技术壁垒如何？ | | 答：公司主要从事自动化精密装备的研发、生产、销售及技 | | 术支持服务，主要产品为锡膏印刷设备、点胶设备、封装设 | | 备和柔性自动化设备。其中，锡膏印刷设备、点胶设备及柔 | | 性自动化设备应用于电子工业制造领域的电子装联环节。电 | | 子装联下游以电子产品制造商为主，一般用到PCB、FPC和电 | | 子元器件的地方均会涉及到电子装联。 | | 公司是国家级高新技术企业，荣获国家制造业单项冠军企业 | | 、专精特新"小巨人"企业，公司的锡膏印刷设备技术能力 | | 已达到或超越国际顶尖厂商水平，固晶设备在芯片小型化趋 | | 势上设备效率及稳定性的具有竞争优势，点胶设备通过技术 | | 的积累及产品的迭代升级，产品竞争力不断提升。 | | 4、公司主要的客户优势是什么？ | | 答：锡膏印刷设备属于SMT及COB产线的关键核心设备,对 | | 产品的良率有重大影响，因此具有一定的客户粘性。公司产 | | 品性能已达到或超越国际顶尖厂商水平，获得了包括富士康 | | 、立讯精密、华 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the basic chemical industry, highlighting strong performance in specific sub-sectors such as tires and electronic materials [2][4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the successful launch of Sinopec's 250,000 tons/year thermoplastic elastomer project, marking a significant advancement in the supply capacity of environmentally friendly materials in the Yangtze River Delta region [3]. - The report also notes the public announcement of Kangpeng's fluorinated material monomer project, which aims to enhance competitiveness in the electronic materials sector [3]. - Investment opportunities are identified in the tire sector, where domestic companies are seen as having strong competitive advantages [4]. - The report suggests that the consumer electronics sector is expected to gradually recover, benefiting upstream material companies [4]. - The report highlights the resilience of certain cyclical industries, particularly phosphate chemicals, which are expected to see tightening supply-demand dynamics due to environmental regulations [5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18%, while the CITIC Basic Chemical Index rose by 3.28% this week, indicating a positive trend in the basic chemical sector [2][10]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included organic silicon (5.03%), soda ash (4.96%), and polyester (4.88%) [2][13]. Key Industry Developments - Sinopec's thermoplastic elastomer project has been successfully launched, with a production capacity of 250,000 tons/year, including various types of SBC products [3]. - Kangpeng's fluorinated material project is set to produce 20 tons/year of 2-fluoro-4-amino benzamide, enhancing its competitive edge in the electronic materials market [3]. Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: The tire sector is highlighted as having strong domestic competitiveness, with companies like Sailun, Senqcia, and Linglong Tire recommended for attention [4]. - Investment Theme 2: The consumer electronics sector is expected to recover, with upstream material companies poised to benefit from this trend [4]. - Investment Theme 3: Phosphate chemicals are noted for their resilience, with supply constraints expected to support prices [5]. - Investment Theme 4: The report suggests that leading chemical companies with scale advantages will benefit from economic recovery and demand resurgence [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the basic chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [7]. Core Insights - The basic chemical sector has shown significant growth, with the CITIC Basic Chemical Index rising by 3.62% this week, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and the ChiNext [15][18]. - Key developments include the successful order acquisition by Duofluorine for boron isotope products from China General Nuclear Power Group, marking a milestone in the application of these products in various high-tech fields [3][27]. - BASF's Zhanjiang base has successfully launched its 2-EHA production line, which is expected to enhance its capacity to meet the growing demand in China and the Asia-Pacific region [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The overall performance of the chemical sector is robust, with notable increases in various sub-sectors, particularly phosphate fertilizers (up 12.4%) and organic silicon (up 10.04%) [15][18]. - The top-performing companies in the chemical sector this week include Qing Shui Yuan (up 47.78%) and Zhenhua Co. (up 37.19%) [19][24]. Key Industry Dynamics - Investment themes highlight the competitiveness of domestic tire manufacturers, with companies like Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire being recommended for their growth potential [4]. - The consumer electronics sector is expected to gradually recover, benefiting upstream material companies, particularly in the display materials supply chain [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of resilient cyclical industries, such as phosphate and fluorine chemicals, which are expected to see tightening supply-demand dynamics due to environmental regulations and increasing downstream demand [5]. Sub-Industry Reviews - **Polyurethane**: The price of pure MDI has increased by 3.26% to 19,000 CNY/ton, with stable operating rates [28]. - **Tires**: The operating load for all-steel tires in Shandong has increased to 65.54%, indicating a positive trend in production [51]. - **Fertilizers**: The price of monoammonium phosphate has risen by 2.17% to 3,472.5 CNY/ton, reflecting strong demand [71]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that leading companies in the chemical sector, such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, are well-positioned to benefit from economic recovery and rising demand [9]. - The vitamin market is experiencing supply disruptions, particularly for vitamins A and E, which may lead to increased prices as demand rises [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the benchmark index [4][6]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 11.788 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.32%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 688 million yuan, down 45.34% year-on-year [1]. - The price of EVA particles, a key raw material, has increased by approximately 16% since early August 2025, which is expected to improve the profitability of the company's film business in the fourth quarter of 2025 [2]. - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas production capacity for photovoltaic films to meet the high demand in emerging markets, aiming to stabilize its global market share [3]. - The electronic materials segment is experiencing rapid growth due to the recovery in consumer electronics and the acceleration of AI applications, positioning the company for a new growth cycle [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16.682 billion yuan, 19.128 billion yuan, and 22.002 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of -12.9%, 14.7%, and 15.0% [4][5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.001 billion yuan in 2025, 1.624 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.260 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of -23.5%, 62.3%, and 39.2% respectively [4][5]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 41X, 25X, and 18X, respectively [4][5].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.257 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.95%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 156 million yuan, down 25.88% year-on-year [1] - A significant factor contributing to the decline in net profit was a provision for impairment losses amounting to 62.43 million yuan, indicating that excluding this factor, profits would have shown growth [1] - The company is actively expanding into new markets while consolidating its traditional business, creating a favorable pattern of "steady growth in traditional business and rapid breakthroughs in new business" [1] Industry Overview - In the consumer electronics sector, the company benefits from the recovery driven by domestic "national subsidy" policies, with increased demand for smartphones, smart wearables, and tablets [1] - As a core supplier for well-known brands like Huawei, Xiaomi, and 360, the company has seen an increase in order volumes due to the industry's recovery [1] - In the network communication equipment sector, the company has established a comprehensive product line and is poised to capture market share amid industry technological upgrades, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 5.8% for the global market from 2024 to 2031 [2] - The company is also expanding its mobile power supply business, becoming a key supplier for various brands and cross-border e-commerce clients, with significant growth potential driven by the explosive growth of consumer electronics and outdoor economy [2] - The global portable power supply market is expected to reach 38 billion USD by 2025 and grow to 72 billion USD by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.7% [2] - The company is focusing on key markets such as Europe, North America, and Japan for its mobile power supply products, implementing differentiated strategies to meet regional demands [2] Future Outlook - With the dual opportunities of global technology industry upgrades and domestic consumer electronics recovery, the company is well-positioned to leverage its core advantages in technology, customer base, and production capacity to achieve breakthroughs across multiple sectors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported steady growth in revenue and profit for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by multiple sectors including new energy materials and precision ceramics [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue reached 3.284 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.71% - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 478 million yuan, up 5.28% year-on-year - In Q3 2025, revenue was 1.129 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.52% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.23% - The net profit for Q3 was 158 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.92% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 19.50% [1]. Business Segments - The new energy materials segment generated revenue of 220 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27.53% - The precision ceramics segment achieved revenue of 230 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 40.00% - The electronic materials segment benefits from the recovery in consumer electronics and emerging demands in automotive electronics and AI servers [2][4]. Dividend Distribution - The company announced a cash dividend of 0.50 yuan per 10 shares (before tax), totaling approximately 49.56 million yuan distributed to shareholders [3]. Growth Drivers - The precision ceramics segment is expected to grow due to increasing demand from the new energy sector and robotics, with ceramic balls being a preferred solution for electric motor applications [4]. - The catalyst materials segment is positioned for long-term growth, with revenue of 744 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.46% [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 670 million, 844 million, and 1.034 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.67, 0.85, and 1.04 yuan - The current price corresponds to PE ratios of 33.31, 26.44, and 21.58 for the respective years [6].

Core Viewpoint - The storage chip sector experienced a collective surge in stock prices, driven by significant revenue growth in key companies and rising market demand for storage solutions [1][2]. Company Summaries - **江波龙 (Jiangbolong)**: Reported a 138.66% year-on-year increase in enterprise storage revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching 6.93 billion yuan, with its enterprise SATA SSD ranking first in total capacity among domestic brands [1]. - **德明利 (Demingli)**: Achieved an 88.83% year-on-year revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with embedded storage business revenue reaching 1.7 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 290.1% [1][2]. - **兆易创新 (Zhaoyi Innovation)**: Holds an 18.5% global market share in SPI NOR Flash, ranking second, with cumulative shipments exceeding 27 billion units and a 1.7% increase in its niche DRAM market share in the first half of 2025 [1]. - **澜起科技 (Lanke Technology)**: As a leader in DDR5 memory interface chips, it commands over 40% market share, with first-half revenue of 2.633 billion yuan, reflecting a 58.17% year-on-year growth [1][2]. Market Trends - According to TrendForce, the spot market saw a price increase of 15%-20% for DDR4 and DDR5 chips, with major players like Samsung and SK Hynix planning to raise DRAM and NAND flash prices by up to 30% in Q4 2025 [2]. - There is a growing trend of customers negotiating long-term supply agreements to mitigate storage chip shortages, with some manufacturers pausing quotes or offering limited-time pricing due to market volatility [2]. Investment Outlook - 湘财证券 (Xiangcai Securities) maintains a positive outlook on the electronics sector, highlighting opportunities in AI infrastructure, end-side SOC, foldable smartphone supply chains, and the storage industry due to ongoing recovery in consumer electronics and advancements in AI technology [3]. - 国金证券 (Guojin Securities) notes that despite some factories withholding sales in anticipation of price increases, demand in the spot market remains strong, driven by expectations of tight supply in Q4 and preemptive stocking by end customers [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than the market" rating for the chemical industry [5] Core Views - The chemical sector is experiencing a positive trend, with significant growth in various sub-industries, particularly in tire manufacturing and electronic chemicals [2][4] - The report highlights the strong competitive position of domestic tire companies and suggests that rare growth targets are worth attention [4] - The recovery in consumer electronics is expected to benefit upstream material companies, particularly in the panel supply chain [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain dynamics in the vitamin sector due to supply disruptions from major producers [4] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88%, the ChiNext Index by 8.05%, and the CSI 300 by 3.24% this week, with the CITIC Basic Chemical Index increasing by 2.55% [13] - The top-performing sub-industries included electronic chemicals (6.68%), potassium fertilizers (5.73%), and synthetic resins (5.45%) [15] Key Industry Developments - Hengyi Petrochemical's 1.2 million tons of caprolactam-nylon integrated project has entered trial production, enhancing its market competitiveness [3] - Toray has signed a memorandum with Refinverse to recycle nylon 66 resin from airbags, indicating a focus on sustainability and resource recovery [3] Investment Themes - **Tire Sector**: Domestic tire companies are rapidly developing, with a recommendation to focus on companies like Sailun, Senqcia, and Linglong Tire [4] - **Consumer Electronics**: A gradual recovery is anticipated, with upstream material companies expected to benefit from improved demand in the panel supply chain [4] - **Phosphate and Fluorine Chemicals**: The report suggests monitoring companies in these sectors due to supply constraints and increasing demand from new energy applications [4] - **Polyester Filament**: The report indicates that inventory depletion is at low levels, which will benefit the textile and apparel demand recovery [4] - **Vitamin Sector**: Supply disruptions from BASF are expected to create a supply-demand imbalance, with recommendations to focus on Zhejiang Medicine and New Hope Liuhe [4]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding complex brokerage reports and outdated institutional research data to avoid missing investment opportunities [1] - It highlights the critical role of thermal materials in AI chips, which are approaching a power consumption of 2000W, indicating a significant investment opportunity in domestic manufacturers [1] - A low-valuation consumer electronics leader is identified, with a potential for net profit to double to over 8 billion in three years, driven by the recovery in consumer electronics, automotive intelligence, and humanoid robots [1]