行 华福证券 基础化工 2025 年 12 月 28 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 基础化工 行业周报：11 月 TDI 出口量创单月历史最高，中 国合成树脂协会倡议规范聚甲醛行业秩序 投资要点： 本周板块行情：本周，上证综合指数上涨 1.88%，创业板指数上涨 3.9%， 沪深 300 上涨 1.95%，中信基础化工指数上涨 5.41%，申万化工指数上涨 4.23%。 化工各子行业板块涨跌幅：本周，化工板块涨跌幅前五的子行业分别为膜 材料(12.18%)、合成树脂(8.23%)、磷肥及磷化工(6.5%)、钾肥(5.91%)、有机硅 (5.39%)；化工板块涨跌幅后五的子行业分别为轮胎(-1.5%)、食品及饲料添加 剂(0.41%)、农药(0.96%)、绵纶(1.12%)、印染化学品(1.33%)。 投资主线二：消费电子有望逐渐复苏，关注上游材料企业。随着下游消费 电子需求逐渐回暖复苏，面板产业链相关标的有望充分受益。部分国内企业在 面板产业链部分环节成功实现进口替代，切入下游头部面板厂供应链，自身α 属性充足。随着面板产业链景气度有望回暖，头部显示材料厂商有望享受行业 β共振。建议关注：东材科技（ ...

证券研究报告：电子 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 买入 |维持 个股表现 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 2025-12 -30% -22% -14% -6% 2% 10% 18% 26% 34% 42% 50% 信维通信 电子 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 37.92 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）9.68 | / 8.25 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）367 | / 313 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 38.96 / 18.20 | | 资产负债率(%) | 45.1% | | 市盈率 | 55.24 | | 第一大股东 | 彭浩 | 研究所 端侧复苏释放增量，商业卫星深耕赋能 l 投资要点 经营业绩持续向好。2025 年前三季度，公司实现营业收入 64.62 亿元，同比增加 1.07%；实现归母净利润 4.86 亿元，同比减少 8.77%； 实现扣非归母净利润 4.29 亿元，同比增加 4.69%。Q3 单季，公司实 现营业收入27.59亿元，同比增加4.20%；实现归母 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Views - The chemical sector has shown positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.4%, the ChiNext Index by 4.54%, and the CSI 300 by 1.64% during the week. The CITIC Basic Chemical Index increased by 3.49%, and the Shenwan Chemical Index rose by 2.98% [2][14] - Key sub-industries within the chemical sector have experienced varied performance, with membrane materials leading at 7.48% growth, followed by titanium dioxide at 5.85% and chlor-alkali at 4.57% [2][17] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Wanhua Chemical announced a price increase of $200/ton for MDI products in Southeast Asia and South Asia starting December 1, 2025, due to market conditions and supply stability [3] - South Korea raised anti-dumping duties on PET film imports from China, significantly increasing the tax rate on Tianjin Wanhua's products from 3.84% to 36.98% [3] Investment Themes - **Tire Sector**: Domestic tire companies are becoming increasingly competitive, with a focus on scarce growth targets. Recommended companies include Sailun Tire, Senqcia, General Motors, and Linglong Tire [4] - **Consumer Electronics**: A gradual recovery in consumer electronics is anticipated, benefiting upstream material companies. Key players in the panel supply chain include Dongcai Technology, Stik, Light Optoelectronics, and Ruile New Materials [4] - **Phosphate Chemicals**: Supply constraints due to environmental policies and increasing demand from the new energy sector are tightening the supply-demand balance. Recommended companies include Yuntianhua, Chuanheng Co., Xingfa Group, and Batian Co. [5] - **Fluorochemicals**: The reduction of production quotas for second-generation refrigerants is stabilizing profitability, with a focus on companies like Jinshi Resources and Juhua Co. [5] - **Economic Recovery**: As the economy improves, leading chemical companies are expected to benefit significantly from price and demand recovery. Recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy [9] - **Vitamin Supply Disruptions**: BASF's supply issues with vitamins A and E are expected to create market imbalances, with companies like Zhejiang Medicine and New Hecheng recommended for attention [9] Sub-Industry Reviews - **Polyurethane**: Pure MDI prices in East China rose to 19,700 RMB/ton, a 1.55% increase week-on-week, with operating rates stable at 68% [30] - **Tire Industry**: Full steel tire operating rates increased to 63.91%, while semi-steel tire rates decreased to 72.37% [54] - **Fertilizers**: Urea prices rose to 1,679.1 RMB/ton, with operating rates for urea at 86.4% [67][68] - **Vitamins**: Vitamin A prices remained stable at 63 RMB/kg, while Vitamin E prices fell by 2.88% to 50.5 RMB/kg [86][87] - **Fluorochemicals**: Fluorspar prices decreased to 3,350 RMB/ton, with a decline in operating rates to 34.12% [91]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the chemical sector [5]. Core Insights - The merger between AkzoNobel and Sherwin-Williams is expected to create a leading global paint company with annual revenues of $17 billion (approximately 120.9 billion RMB) [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce continues to impose anti-dumping duties on imported propanol from the U.S., with rates ranging from 254.4% to 267.4% [3]. - The domestic tire industry shows strong competitiveness, with scarce growth targets worth attention, including Sailun Tire, Senqilin, General Shares, and Linglong Tire [4]. - The consumer electronics sector is anticipated to gradually recover, benefiting upstream material companies, with recommendations to focus on companies like Dongcai Technology and Stik [4]. - The phosphorous chemical sector is highlighted for its resilience due to supply constraints and increasing demand from the new energy sector, with suggested companies including Yuntianhua and Chuanheng Shares [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the chemical industry benefiting from economic recovery and demand resurgence, recommending companies like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.9%, the ChiNext Index by 6.15%, and the CSI 300 by 3.77%, while the CITIC Basic Chemical Index dropped by 8.24% [14]. - The top five performing sub-industries in the chemical sector were rubber additives (1.75%), potassium fertilizer (-1.21%), tires (-2.84%), modified plastics (-4.32%), and membrane materials (-5.19%) [17]. Major Industry Dynamics - The merger between AkzoNobel and Sherwin-Williams is set to create a company with a business scope covering various paint solutions and an expected annual revenue of $17 billion [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce's anti-dumping measures on U.S. propanol will continue, affecting pricing and supply dynamics in the market [3]. Investment Themes - The tire sector is highlighted for its competitive domestic enterprises, with specific companies recommended for investment [4]. - The consumer electronics sector is expected to recover, with upstream material companies poised to benefit [4]. - The phosphorous chemical sector is noted for its tightening supply-demand balance, with several companies recommended for attention [4]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the chemical industry that are likely to benefit from economic recovery and demand resurgence [4].

Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 774.92 million CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.21% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 121.26 million CNY, a significant year-on-year growth of 175.35% [3] - In Q3 2025 alone, revenue was 321.31 million CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 47.40%, with net profit soaring by 227.15% to 54.12 million CNY [3] Market Drivers - Growth in revenue is primarily attributed to an increase in acceptance amounts for solder paste printing equipment [3] - Key factors driving demand in the electronic assembly equipment sector include: - Expansion of AI infrastructure investments, leading to strong growth in the AI server market [3] - Recovery in consumer electronics demand, with global smartphone shipments increasing by 2.6% and PC shipments by 9.4% in Q3 2025 [3] - Rising penetration of electric vehicles, which continues to drive the procurement of SMT equipment [3] Product Positioning and Industry Standing - The company specializes in the R&D, production, and sales of automation precision equipment, with key products including solder paste printing equipment, dispensing equipment, and flexible automation equipment [4] - The company is recognized as a national high-tech enterprise and has achieved a competitive edge in solder paste printing technology, surpassing international standards [4] - The company has established a strong customer base, including major clients like Foxconn, Huawei, and BYD, enhancing its brand recognition in the industry [4] Market Opportunities - There is potential for increased market share in solder paste printing equipment, particularly as the demand for PCB applications grows in various sectors, including AI, automotive electronics, and smart home devices [5] - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing trend of domestic substitution of imported electronic assembly equipment, particularly in the high-end market [5] - The establishment of service networks in key overseas markets by the company's subsidiary, GKG ASIA, supports its international customer base [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the basic chemical industry, highlighting strong performance in specific sub-sectors such as tires and electronic materials [2][4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the successful launch of Sinopec's 250,000 tons/year thermoplastic elastomer project, marking a significant advancement in the supply capacity of environmentally friendly materials in the Yangtze River Delta region [3]. - The report also notes the public announcement of Kangpeng's fluorinated material monomer project, which aims to enhance competitiveness in the electronic materials sector [3]. - Investment opportunities are identified in the tire sector, where domestic companies are seen as having strong competitive advantages [4]. - The report suggests that the consumer electronics sector is expected to gradually recover, benefiting upstream material companies [4]. - The report highlights the resilience of certain cyclical industries, particularly phosphate chemicals, which are expected to see tightening supply-demand dynamics due to environmental regulations [5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18%, while the CITIC Basic Chemical Index rose by 3.28% this week, indicating a positive trend in the basic chemical sector [2][10]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included organic silicon (5.03%), soda ash (4.96%), and polyester (4.88%) [2][13]. Key Industry Developments - Sinopec's thermoplastic elastomer project has been successfully launched, with a production capacity of 250,000 tons/year, including various types of SBC products [3]. - Kangpeng's fluorinated material project is set to produce 20 tons/year of 2-fluoro-4-amino benzamide, enhancing its competitive edge in the electronic materials market [3]. Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: The tire sector is highlighted as having strong domestic competitiveness, with companies like Sailun, Senqcia, and Linglong Tire recommended for attention [4]. - Investment Theme 2: The consumer electronics sector is expected to recover, with upstream material companies poised to benefit from this trend [4]. - Investment Theme 3: Phosphate chemicals are noted for their resilience, with supply constraints expected to support prices [5]. - Investment Theme 4: The report suggests that leading chemical companies with scale advantages will benefit from economic recovery and demand resurgence [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the basic chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [7]. Core Insights - The basic chemical sector has shown significant growth, with the CITIC Basic Chemical Index rising by 3.62% this week, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and the ChiNext [15][18]. - Key developments include the successful order acquisition by Duofluorine for boron isotope products from China General Nuclear Power Group, marking a milestone in the application of these products in various high-tech fields [3][27]. - BASF's Zhanjiang base has successfully launched its 2-EHA production line, which is expected to enhance its capacity to meet the growing demand in China and the Asia-Pacific region [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The overall performance of the chemical sector is robust, with notable increases in various sub-sectors, particularly phosphate fertilizers (up 12.4%) and organic silicon (up 10.04%) [15][18]. - The top-performing companies in the chemical sector this week include Qing Shui Yuan (up 47.78%) and Zhenhua Co. (up 37.19%) [19][24]. Key Industry Dynamics - Investment themes highlight the competitiveness of domestic tire manufacturers, with companies like Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire being recommended for their growth potential [4]. - The consumer electronics sector is expected to gradually recover, benefiting upstream material companies, particularly in the display materials supply chain [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of resilient cyclical industries, such as phosphate and fluorine chemicals, which are expected to see tightening supply-demand dynamics due to environmental regulations and increasing downstream demand [5]. Sub-Industry Reviews - **Polyurethane**: The price of pure MDI has increased by 3.26% to 19,000 CNY/ton, with stable operating rates [28]. - **Tires**: The operating load for all-steel tires in Shandong has increased to 65.54%, indicating a positive trend in production [51]. - **Fertilizers**: The price of monoammonium phosphate has risen by 2.17% to 3,472.5 CNY/ton, reflecting strong demand [71]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that leading companies in the chemical sector, such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, are well-positioned to benefit from economic recovery and rising demand [9]. - The vitamin market is experiencing supply disruptions, particularly for vitamins A and E, which may lead to increased prices as demand rises [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the benchmark index [4][6]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 11.788 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.32%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 688 million yuan, down 45.34% year-on-year [1]. - The price of EVA particles, a key raw material, has increased by approximately 16% since early August 2025, which is expected to improve the profitability of the company's film business in the fourth quarter of 2025 [2]. - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas production capacity for photovoltaic films to meet the high demand in emerging markets, aiming to stabilize its global market share [3]. - The electronic materials segment is experiencing rapid growth due to the recovery in consumer electronics and the acceleration of AI applications, positioning the company for a new growth cycle [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16.682 billion yuan, 19.128 billion yuan, and 22.002 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of -12.9%, 14.7%, and 15.0% [4][5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.001 billion yuan in 2025, 1.624 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.260 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of -23.5%, 62.3%, and 39.2% respectively [4][5]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 41X, 25X, and 18X, respectively [4][5].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.257 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.95%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 156 million yuan, down 25.88% year-on-year [1] - A significant factor contributing to the decline in net profit was a provision for impairment losses amounting to 62.43 million yuan, indicating that excluding this factor, profits would have shown growth [1] - The company is actively expanding into new markets while consolidating its traditional business, creating a favorable pattern of "steady growth in traditional business and rapid breakthroughs in new business" [1] Industry Overview - In the consumer electronics sector, the company benefits from the recovery driven by domestic "national subsidy" policies, with increased demand for smartphones, smart wearables, and tablets [1] - As a core supplier for well-known brands like Huawei, Xiaomi, and 360, the company has seen an increase in order volumes due to the industry's recovery [1] - In the network communication equipment sector, the company has established a comprehensive product line and is poised to capture market share amid industry technological upgrades, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 5.8% for the global market from 2024 to 2031 [2] - The company is also expanding its mobile power supply business, becoming a key supplier for various brands and cross-border e-commerce clients, with significant growth potential driven by the explosive growth of consumer electronics and outdoor economy [2] - The global portable power supply market is expected to reach 38 billion USD by 2025 and grow to 72 billion USD by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.7% [2] - The company is focusing on key markets such as Europe, North America, and Japan for its mobile power supply products, implementing differentiated strategies to meet regional demands [2] Future Outlook - With the dual opportunities of global technology industry upgrades and domestic consumer electronics recovery, the company is well-positioned to leverage its core advantages in technology, customer base, and production capacity to achieve breakthroughs across multiple sectors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported steady growth in revenue and profit for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by multiple sectors including new energy materials and precision ceramics [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue reached 3.284 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.71% - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 478 million yuan, up 5.28% year-on-year - In Q3 2025, revenue was 1.129 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.52% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.23% - The net profit for Q3 was 158 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.92% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 19.50% [1]. Business Segments - The new energy materials segment generated revenue of 220 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27.53% - The precision ceramics segment achieved revenue of 230 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 40.00% - The electronic materials segment benefits from the recovery in consumer electronics and emerging demands in automotive electronics and AI servers [2][4]. Dividend Distribution - The company announced a cash dividend of 0.50 yuan per 10 shares (before tax), totaling approximately 49.56 million yuan distributed to shareholders [3]. Growth Drivers - The precision ceramics segment is expected to grow due to increasing demand from the new energy sector and robotics, with ceramic balls being a preferred solution for electric motor applications [4]. - The catalyst materials segment is positioned for long-term growth, with revenue of 744 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.46% [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 670 million, 844 million, and 1.034 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.67, 0.85, and 1.04 yuan - The current price corresponds to PE ratios of 33.31, 26.44, and 21.58 for the respective years [6].