Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4100 points and achieving a historical 16 consecutive days of gains, driven by sectors such as commercial aerospace, controllable nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, humanoid robots, and resource stocks [1][11]. Group 1: Market Trends - The current market rally is attributed to concentrated inflows from previously cautious funds, with a notable focus on thematic stocks and small-cap stocks rather than traditional allocation strategies [3][13]. - Short-term market sentiment remains high, with no signs of weakening emotional indicators, suggesting that the upward trend in thematic and small-cap stocks may continue until after the Two Sessions [3][13]. - The market is currently characterized by a high level of trading activity, with a significant increase in transaction volume, indicating strong investor confidence [16]. Group 2: Sector Recommendations - Analysts recommend focusing on sectors with high cost-performance ratios, particularly those benefiting from external demand recovery, such as gaming, duty-free, batteries, engineering machinery, and agricultural chemicals [4][14]. - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with expectations of continued upward momentum despite potential short-term profit-taking pressures [19]. - The resource sector, particularly traditional manufacturing, is advised for increased allocation, with a focus on enhancing pricing power [3][13]. Group 3: Future Outlook - February is anticipated to be a favorable period for the market, with historical data suggesting that significant trading volumes often lead to sustained upward trends [16]. - The market is expected to enter a phase of basic performance evaluation after the annual report disclosures in January, which may provide opportunities for investors to capitalize on growth potential [17]. - The overall sentiment indicates that the upward potential in the market outweighs the risks, with a focus on sectors that align with long-term growth trends, such as AI and semiconductor industries [20].

Group 1 - The recent improvement in market liquidity has driven the A-share market's rise, with a notable increase in margin trading balance by over 125 billion yuan in just half a month, leading to a more than 35% increase in trading volume [2][8] - Historical data indicates that similar market conditions have occurred six times in the past decade, with a high probability of continued strength in the A-share market over the next 10, 20, and 250 trading days following such volume increases [9][12] - However, there are signs of structural overheating, particularly in the commercial aerospace index, which has seen a significant increase in turnover rate and trading volume share, indicating a need for fundamental support for such rapid trading concentration [2][9] Group 2 - The negative impact of AI on the U.S. employment market is becoming evident, with December's non-farm payrolls falling short of expectations and a cumulative reduction of 340,000 jobs in sectors heavily affected by AI [3][15] - The ongoing concerns about a prolonged interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve are alleviating fears of a second inflation wave, benefiting commodity prices as the demand-supply gap becomes more pronounced [3][23] - The geopolitical tensions are altering inventory behaviors among market participants, leading to increased stockpiling and a significant rise in copper and silver inventories since 2025 [24][27] Group 3 - Domestic policies aimed at reducing "involution" are being implemented, with industrial PPI showing a positive trend, indicating a shift from price drag to support for corporate revenues [4][35] - The recent regulatory focus on the photovoltaic industry has raised concerns about the commitment to anti-involution policies, but the overall direction remains focused on improving corporate profitability through reasonable policy guidance [4][40] - The market is expected to see improvements in corporate earnings as the anti-involution policies take effect, with a focus on preventing monopolistic practices while fostering innovation [4][42] Group 4 - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the A-share market, suggesting that the ongoing liquidity improvements and fundamental changes will drive future performance [5][43] - Recommendations include focusing on industrial resource products that resonate with AI investments and global manufacturing recovery, as well as sectors benefiting from domestic consumption recovery [5][43]

证券研究报告 投资要点 2 ◼ 【聚氨酯板块】本周纯MDI/聚合MDI/TDI行业均价为18043/14171/14478元/吨，环比分别-57/-129/+59元/吨，纯 MDI/聚合MDI/TDI行业毛利分别为5131/2259/2936元/吨，环比分别+1/-70/+0元/吨。 ◼ 【油煤气烯烃板块】①本周乙烷/丙烷/动力煤/石脑油均价分别为1165/4172/520/3745元/吨，环比分别- 85/+45/+0/-18元/吨。②本周聚乙烯均价为6800元/吨，环比+30元/吨，乙烷裂解/CTO/石脑油裂解制聚乙烯理论利 润分别为701/1198/-171元/吨，环比分别+100/+20/+34元/吨。③本周聚丙烯均价为6100元/吨，环比+120元/吨， PDH/CTO/石脑油裂解制聚丙烯理论利润分别为-673/946/-260元/吨，环比分别+54/+93/+106元/吨。 ◼ 【煤化工板块】本周合成氨/尿素/DMF/醋酸行业均价为2213/1724/3787/2546元/吨，环比分别-34/+12/+24/+41 元/吨，合成氨/尿素/DMF/醋酸行业毛利分别为223/58/-160/379元/ ...

Group 1: Market Liquidity and A-Share Performance - The improvement in market liquidity has been a direct catalyst for the recent rise in A-shares, with margin trading balances increasing by over 125 billion yuan in just half a month, leading to a more than 35% increase in trading volume across the A-share market [3][13][22] - Historical data shows that similar situations, where the A-share market rose by nearly 10% over 16 trading days with trading volume expanding by over 30%, have occurred six times in the past decade, predominantly at the beginning of the year [3][18][22] - The recent surge in the commercial aerospace index has led to a significant increase in turnover rates and trading volume proportions, indicating a potential structural overheating in the market [3][22] Group 2: AI Impact on Employment and Economic Policy - The U.S. job market continues to face pressure, with December's non-farm payrolls adding only 50,000 jobs, below expectations, and a downward revision of 76,000 jobs for October and November [4][26][33] - The adoption of AI by large U.S. companies has significantly suppressed employment growth, particularly in the information, finance, and professional services sectors, which have collectively lost 344,000 jobs over the past three years [4][26][33] - The Federal Reserve's extended rate-cutting cycle is expected to benefit commodity markets, as inflation concerns related to AI investments are easing [4][40][41] Group 3: Domestic Economic Recovery and Policy Optimization - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial enterprises in December showed a year-on-year increase, indicating a shift from price drag to price support for corporate revenues [5][56] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has also risen, with the core CPI maintaining its highest level in five years, reflecting a smoother transmission of prices from enterprises to consumers [5][56] - The ongoing anti-involution policies are expected to enhance corporate profitability, with regulatory measures aimed at preventing monopolistic practices and promoting fair competition [5][62] Group 4: Rebalancing and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for A-shares, driven by improved liquidity and favorable domestic and international economic conditions [6][63] - Recommended investment areas include industrial resource products like copper, aluminum, and lithium, as well as sectors benefiting from the recovery of domestic manufacturing and consumer spending [6][63] - The report emphasizes the importance of capturing opportunities in sectors such as aviation, duty-free, and food and beverage, which are expected to benefit from increased consumer income and tourism recovery [6][63]

1月9日，新三板挂牌公司诚丰新材（874801）公告披露，公司拟将首次公开发行股票并在上海证券交易所主板上市的计划 变更为向不特定合格投资者公开发行股票并在在北京证券交易所上市，2026年1月9日，公司已向江苏监管局申请将辅导备 案板块变更为北交所，完成辅导上市板块的变更。 值得注意的是，诚丰新材曾于2022年6月申报上交所主板IPO，相关中介机构分别为民生证券股份有限公司、上海市广发律 师事务所和天健会计师事务所（特殊普通合伙）。 2022年7月，诚丰新材被抽中信息披露质量检查，2022年8月撤回，公司披露前次撤回上市申请材料系结合实际经营情况和 业务发展规划，从战略上做出的调整。 报告期各期末，公司应收账款账面余额分别为31,308.89万元和36,803.22万元，占同期营业收入的比例分别为42.91%和 44.19%。 报告期各期末，公司存货账面价值分别为9,788.80万元和13,057.54万元，占流动资产比例分别为17.60%和19.10%。 公司主要供应商包括中海壳牌石油化工有限公司、上海巴斯夫聚氨酯有限公司、Coim Asia Pacific Pte ltd等，报告期各期， 公司前五名供应商 ...

Group 1 - The recent improvement in market liquidity has driven the A-share market's rise, with historical patterns suggesting a strong performance in the upcoming period [1][5] - The A-share market has seen a significant increase in trading volume, with a 35% growth in total trading volume and a 10% rise in the overall A-share index over the past 16 trading days [2][14] - There is a notable structural overheating in the market, particularly in the commercial aerospace index, which has seen a sharp increase in turnover and trading volume [2][14] Group 2 - AI's negative impact on the U.S. employment market is becoming evident, with December's non-farm payrolls falling short of expectations and a downward revision of previous months' data [3][20] - The prolonged interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve is expected to benefit commodity markets, as the demand for resources related to AI and new energy industries is increasing [3][33] - Geopolitical tensions are altering inventory behaviors among market participants, leading to increased stockpiling and a rise in copper and silver inventories [3][35] Group 3 - Domestic policies aimed at reducing "involution" are being implemented, with industrial prices showing signs of recovery, leading to improved corporate profitability [4][43] - The recent regulatory focus on the photovoltaic industry has raised concerns about the commitment to anti-involution policies, but the overall direction remains focused on improving corporate fundamentals [4][49] - The government is actively working on regulatory frameworks to support innovation while preventing monopolistic practices, which is expected to enhance corporate profitability in the long run [4][51] Group 4 - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the A-share market, suggesting that the combination of improved liquidity, AI investments, and domestic policy support will lead to a favorable investment environment [5][52] - Recommended sectors include industrial resource products like copper, aluminum, and lithium, as well as equipment exports and consumer sectors benefiting from recovery trends [5][52]

"十四五"时期，我国聚氨酯行业坚持以创新驱动和绿色低碳为导向，不仅在产业规模上巩固了全球领先 地位，更在质量效益、技术创新、结构优化和可持续发展能力上实现了同步跃升。 规模优势持续巩固 产业安全自主可控 "十四五"期间，我国聚氨酯行业规模持续扩大，稳居全球最大生产国、消费国地位。行业主要核心原料 产能全球占比超过40%，标志着我国聚氨酯产业链的规模优势和配套能力达到了新的高度，完整的产业 生态也极大增强了产业链供应链的自主可控能力。 绿色高端助剂研发与产业化成绩显著。湘园新材、美思德化学、恒光新材等生产的生物基助剂、高端聚 氨酯扩链剂、高性能有机硅表面活性剂等产品达到国际先进水平，完善了产业链关键环节。 核心原料领域保持全球引领。异氰酸酯产品在技术先进性、装置规模、能耗控制及本质安全水平上持续 保持全球领先。截至2025年，我国二苯基甲烷二异氰酸酯(MDI)产能预计达499万吨，甲苯二异氰酸酯 (TDI)产能达199万吨，全球最大异氰酸酯生产与供应国地位更加稳固。环氧丙烷产能从2020年的337万 吨迅速增长至2025年的815万吨。聚醚多元醇产业量与质同步飞跃，产能从2020年约598万吨扩张至2025 年 ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to show strong performance, with the chemical ETF (516020) rising by 2.03% as of the latest report, reflecting a robust market trend [1] - Key stocks in the sector include Junzheng Group, which surged over 7%, Hengli Petrochemical up over 6%, and Hengyi Petrochemical increasing by over 5% [1][2] - The overall market sentiment is positive, driven by price increases in core products like MDI/TDI by Wanhua Chemical, which plans to raise prices in line with international giants [1][3] Group 2 - The chemical industry is expected to experience a dual uplift in performance and valuation due to the "anti-involution" policy, with a 10% year-on-year decrease in construction projects among basic chemical companies [3] - Demand is being supported by domestic consumption and resilient exports, indicating a recovery in the supply-demand balance [3] - Analysts predict that the chemical industry may reach a cyclical turning point by 2026, driven by policy expectations and a potential increase in demand as the U.S. enters a rate-cutting phase [3] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI sub-sector chemical industry index, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks like Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Shares, providing investors with strong investment opportunities [4] - The ETF also diversifies its holdings across various sub-sectors, including phosphate and nitrogen fertilizers, fluorochemicals, and other chemical leaders [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment value of Wanhua Chemical, emphasizing its leading position in the global MDI industry and its resilience against market fluctuations despite short-term price pressures [3][4]. Group 1: MDI as the Core Business - Wanhua Chemical's business is divided into three main segments: polyurethane (core products MDI and TDI), petrochemicals, and fine chemicals and new materials [5]. - In the first half of 2025, the gross profit from polyurethane products accounted for approximately 75% of the company's total profit, highlighting its significance as the main profit source [5]. - As of September 2025, Wanhua's total MDI production capacity reached 3.05 million tons per year, maintaining the largest market share globally at 27.2%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from 2024 [5][11]. Group 2: Market Demand and Pricing Trends - The global demand for MDI in the first nine months of 2025 was approximately 7.85 million tons, with China accounting for 3.9 million tons, or 49.7% of the total demand [8]. - Demand growth rates for MDI in various sectors from January to September 2025 were 3.5% in home appliances, 4.8% in automotive manufacturing, while the construction insulation sector saw a decline of 2.0% due to a sluggish real estate market [9]. - MDI prices in China exhibited a "first suppressed, then rebounded, and finally declined" trend in 2025, influenced by global overcapacity [9][11]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Challenges - For the first three quarters of 2025, Wanhua reported revenue of 144.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.16 billion yuan, down 17% [12]. - The gross margin for the polyurethane business in Q3 2025 was 25.7%, a slight decline from 26.2% in 2024, primarily due to falling MDI prices and high raw material costs [14]. - Despite short-term price pressures, Wanhua's strong production capacity, cost advantages, and diversified business layout provide significant resilience against market cycles [11]. Group 4: Future Growth Opportunities - Wanhua is cultivating its battery materials business as a second growth curve, focusing on lithium iron phosphate and continuous graphite negative electrode products, with plans to achieve a capacity of 1 million tons of lithium iron phosphate by 2027 [18]. - In fine chemicals, Wanhua's ADI business is expanding globally to enhance risk resilience, and its MS resin facility has begun large-scale production, filling a domestic gap in high-end optical-grade materials [19]. - The company is committed to a differentiated product strategy, benefiting from new production capabilities and the demand from the new energy sector, which supports its high-value product matrix for long-term growth [19].

记者丨赵云帆 编辑丨朱益民 在2025年下半年"化工反内卷"声浪之中，"化工茅"万华化学（600309.SH）的涨价显得有些姗姗来迟，但在影响范围上却有横扫全球之势头。 自2025年12月以来，万华化学接连发布多份调价函，涉及（二苯基甲烷二异氰酸酯）和TDI（甲苯二异氰酸酯）等公司核心产品。在全球范围内、巴斯 夫、陶氏、亨斯迈等也频频同步上调MDI/TDI价格，聚氨酯价格迎来了近三年来难得一见的强势表现。 这也是继2025年年中科思创TDI装置遭遇火灾不可抗力停产之后，聚氨酯行业在一年内再度迎来一轮涨价契机。 "聚氨酯的行业集中度很高，除万华化学之外的企业均是全球性化工巨头。因此国内的反内卷对聚氨酯行业其实并没有太多直接的影响"，有聚氨酯行业人 士告诉21世纪经济报道记者。"（本次调价）这个事还是属于一个正常的市场调整行为。" 二级市场上，近期万华化学股价呈上涨趋势，近20日累计涨超12%，2025年12月31日股价微跌0.42%，市值为2400亿元。 万华化学(600309) 闭市 12-31 15:00:04 通 融 额 12.6亿 股本31.30亿 市盈™ 21.63 万得 盘口 换 0.52% 市值 ...