工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2026 年 2 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 点评 9 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2605 收于 8450/吨，日内跌幅 0.82%，持仓增 仓 17899 手至 29.5 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9458 元/吨，较上一交 易日持稳。最低交割品价格持稳在 8850 元/吨，现货升水扩至 400 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2605 收于 49370 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.17%，持 仓增仓 413 手至 38347 手；百川多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格至 53650 元/ 吨，最低交割品硅料价格 53650 元/吨，现货升水收至 4280 元/吨。云南 厂家进入节前最后一批订单交付期，本周将陆续全面减产，新疆延续减 产缩量。当前期限商仍在积极出货，下游备货进入尾声，节前暂无推涨 动力。节前晶硅市场新单停滞，硅片进入一单一议模式，仅组件贸易商 因资金压力降价出货外，其他环节在成交僵持中暂时企稳。节前围绕资 金回笼逻辑，晶硅盘面延续弱势，市场矛盾转向节后预期信心的博弈。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 二、日度数据监测 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - On July 24, polysilicon fluctuated higher, with the main contract 2509 closing at 53,765 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 5.15%, and the position increasing by 6,923 lots to 173,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon increased to 46,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also rose to 46,000 yuan/ton, with the spot discount widening to 7,740 yuan/ton. The main contract 2509 of industrial silicon closed at 9,690 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 0.21%, and the position increasing by 1,498 lots to 336,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,807 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 increased to 9,550 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 45 yuan/ton. Affected by the news of coal mine inspections, industrial silicon also has a cost upward logic support. Currently, the country continues to send a strong signal against cut - throat competition. With multiple positive news in the crystalline silicon market, the bulls are quite confident. Supported by macro - policies, the market is more likely to rise than fall. Attention should be paid to the PS/SI price ratio and the potential upward trend before the implementation of policies. In addition, after the increase in polysilicon margin, it is more difficult to chase the rise, so it is necessary to control positions carefully and be vigilant against high - volatility risks [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research View - Polysilicon prices rose on July 24, with the main contract showing an increase and the position rising. The prices of different types of polysilicon materials also increased, and the spot discount widened. Industrial silicon prices slightly declined, with the position increasing. The spot price remained stable, and the spot discount narrowed. Industrial silicon has cost - rising support, and the market is likely to rise under policy support, but there are risks in chasing the rise of polysilicon [1] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts decreased slightly. The spot prices of most types of industrial silicon, such as non - oxygenated 553 and 421, increased in some regions, while remaining stable in others. The current lowest deliverable price increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed by 210 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 330 tons, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 820 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 1,400 tons [3] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts increased significantly. The spot prices of various types of polysilicon materials also rose, with the price of N - type granular silicon increasing by 9,500 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price increased by 2,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened by 1,160 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 240 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons [3] - **Organic Silicon**: The spot prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, 107 glue, and dimethyl silicone oil were marked as N/A [3] - **Downstream**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged. 3. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: There are charts showing the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][9] - **Downstream Finished Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon finished products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][14][16] - **Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [20][22] - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, the cost - profit of DMC, and the cost - profit of polysilicon [25][27][34]