Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 31, industrial silicon and polysilicon both showed weak oscillations. The main contract of industrial silicon 2605 closed at 8355 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.71%, and the position decreased by 18,817 lots to 202,000 lots. The main contract of polysilicon 2605 closed at 35,200 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 3.1%, and the position decreased by 128 lots to 34,456 lots [2]. - Industrial silicon is in a game between cost support and marginal inventory accumulation. After the increase in petroleum coke and electricity prices, the quotation center of spot - futures traders has risen significantly, and low - price goods in the market have disappeared. However, the overall market atmosphere is difficult to improve significantly, and it will operate in an oscillatory manner. Polysilicon is in a window period of policy implementation. Silicon material production is steadily increasing, the delivery of photovoltaic centralized projects has slowed down, and leading enterprises continue the dual - distribution strategy, so the industry inventory has the risk of increasing pressure. The market has not shown an obvious bottom - reaching signal and mainly follows the bottom - running logic [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 8480 yuan/ton on March 30 to 8355 yuan/ton on March 31, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices of different grades and varieties in different regions either decreased slightly or remained stable. The current lowest delivery price remained at 8800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium expanded to 445 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon inventory increased in most places, with the social inventory increasing by 23,100 tons to 456,150 tons [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 36,550 yuan/ton on March 30 to 35,200 yuan/ton on March 31, a decrease of 1350 yuan/ton. The spot prices of some varieties decreased, and the lowest delivery price dropped by 750 yuan/ton to 38,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium expanded to 3300 yuan/ton. The polysilicon inventory increased, with the social inventory increasing by 24,000 tons to 332,000 tons [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The prices of DMC, raw rubber, and 107 glue in the East China market remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1000 yuan/ton to 15,800 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][8][11]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][16][19]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the futures inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon, the weekly industrial silicon industry inventory, the weekly industrial silicon inventory change, the weekly polysilicon inventory, and the weekly DMC inventory [21][22][24]. - **Cost - Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the processing industry profit of polysilicon, the cost - profit of DMC, and the cost - profit of aluminum alloys [27][29][32].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 30, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2605 closed at 8,480 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.14%. The position decreased by 2,603 lots to 220,600 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan was 9,155 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product rebounded to 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium expanded to 320 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2605 closed at 36,550 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 3.45%. The position increased by 404 lots to 34,584 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon from Baichuan dropped to 39,250 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material dropped to 39,250 yuan/ton. The spot premium narrowed to 2,700 yuan/ton [2]. - The north and south production areas of industrial silicon are slowly resuming production. Industrial silicon is in a game between cost support and marginal inventory accumulation. After the increase in petroleum coke and electricity prices, the quotation center of spot-futures traders has increased significantly, and the low-priced goods in the market have disappeared. The overall market atmosphere is difficult to improve significantly, and it will operate in a volatile manner. Polysilicon has entered a window period for policy implementation. The silicon material production is steadily increasing, the delivery of photovoltaic centralized projects has slowed down, and leading enterprises continue the dual distribution strategy. There is a risk of increasing industry inventory. The market has not shown an obvious bottoming signal and mainly follows the bottom operation logic. Attention should be paid to the actual terminal acceptance ability and inventory clearance performance after the end of the export rush. Currently, the policy expectations have been fully priced in, and a deep correction due to policy disappointment should be警惕 [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Viewpoints - The research viewpoints section comments on the market performance of industrial silicon and polysilicon on March 30, including price changes, position changes, and market trends [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 145 yuan/ton to 8,480 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract decreased by 130 yuan/ton to 8,430 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon remained stable. The current lowest deliverable product price remained at 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 145 yuan to 320 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 22,277 lots. The weekly inventory in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 3,045 tons to 111,385 tons, the inventory at Huangpu Port increased by 1,500 tons to 58,000 tons, the inventory at Tianjin Port increased by 7,000 tons to 80,000 tons, the inventory at Kunming Port decreased by 2,000 tons to 52,000 tons, and the industrial silicon factory inventory increased by 16,600 tons to 266,150 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 23,100 tons to 456,150 tons [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 870 yuan/ton to 36,550 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract increased by 495 yuan/ton to 35,695 yuan/ton. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon dropped by 500 yuan/ton to 39,250 yuan/ton, and the current lowest deliverable product price dropped by 500 yuan/ton to 39,250 yuan/ton. The spot premium decreased by 1,370 yuan to 2,700 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 10,030 lots. The weekly inventory in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 0.1 million tons to 3.01 million tons, and the polysilicon factory inventory increased by 2.4 million tons to 33.2 million tons. The total social inventory of polysilicon increased by 2.4 million tons to 33.2 million tons [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained at 14,300 yuan/ton, the price of raw rubber remained at 14,800 yuan/ton, the price of 107 glue remained at 14,800 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 15,800 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices**: Charts show the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][8][11]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][19][18]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the futures inventory of industrial silicon and polysilicon, the weekly industry inventory of industrial silicon, the weekly inventory change of industrial silicon, the weekly inventory of polysilicon, and the weekly inventory of DMC [22][23][25]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost level, average profit level, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the processing industry profit of polysilicon, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of aluminum alloy [28][30][32]. Group 4: Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures, a senior precious metals researcher, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. Wang Heng is mainly engaged in the research of aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi focuses on the research of lithium and nickel [36][37].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The increase in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has led to damage to energy facilities, resulting in rising prices for energy products [4] - The chemical sector has shown resilience, with a 2.31% increase in performance, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.41 percentage points [5] - The report highlights that domestic chemical leaders are expected to maintain profitability due to integrated supply chains and diversified raw material sources [5] - The chemical industry is anticipated to experience a recovery driven by both cyclical and growth factors, with specific focus on sectors such as oil, refining, agriculture chemicals, and dyeing [6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector ranked third in overall performance for the week of March 23-27, 2026, with a gain of 2.31% [5][23] - The top three performing sub-sectors included other chemical raw materials (5.94%), other petrochemicals (5.57%), and civil explosives (4.50%) [26] Supply-Side Tracking - A total of 157 companies in the chemical industry reported capacity impacts, with 7 new repairs and 3 restarts [16] Key Industry Dynamics - The report emphasizes the importance of geopolitical risks in the oil and gas sector, suggesting that domestic refining chains are better positioned to withstand these risks compared to international counterparts [6] - The report also notes that the demand for electronic chemicals is increasing due to the rapid growth of the semiconductor industry, particularly in China [8] - The organic silicon industry is entering a recovery phase, driven by demand from new applications such as electric vehicles and photovoltaics [10] - The PTA and polyester filament industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle as capacity expansion slows and demand continues to rise [12] Price Trends - The report lists significant price increases for various chemical products, including ammonium nitrate (35.14%) and epoxy propane (22.75%) [14] - Conversely, some products like naphtha and PX saw price declines of -6.25% and -4.90%, respectively [14] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong positions in the oil, refining, agriculture chemicals, and electronic chemicals sectors, as they are expected to benefit from rising prices and demand [6][8][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 78,000 tons, with no change from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 68,000 tons, a 1.44% decrease from the previous week. Demand remained low. The polysilicon inventory was 332,000 tons, at a high level. The silicon wafer production was at a loss, while the battery cell production was profitable, and the component production was also profitable. The silicone inventory was 58,500 tons, at a low level, with a production profit of 2,430 yuan/ton, an overall operating rate of 68.6%, unchanged from the previous week and higher than the historical average. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 44,900 tons, at a high level, with an import loss of 2,487 yuan/ton. The A356 aluminum delivered to Wuxi had a freight and profit of 623.12 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum operating rate was 59.5%, unchanged from the previous week and at a high level [6]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9,769.7 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On March 30, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,150 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 670 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 560,000 tons, a 1.27% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory was 191,100 tons, a 3.38% decrease from the previous week. The main port inventory was 134,000 tons, a 1.47% decrease from the previous week [6]. - Disk: The MA20 was upward, and the 05 contract price closed below the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased [6]. - Expectation: The supply schedule increased, the demand recovery was at a low level, and the cost support increased. The industrial silicon 2605 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,390 - 8,570 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 19,400 tons, a 2.10% increase from the previous week. The production schedule for March was predicted to be 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11.38GW, a 3.39% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 269,800 tons, a 2.42% decrease from the previous week. The silicon wafer production was at a loss. The production schedule for March was 49.01GW, a 10.70% increase from the previous month. In February, the battery cell production was 37.09GW, a 10.49% decrease from the previous month. Last week, the external sales factory inventory of battery cells was 6.79GW, a 16.66% increase from the previous week, and the production was profitable. The production schedule for March was 46.36GW, a 24.99% increase from the previous month. In February, the component production was 29.3GW, a 16.76% decrease from the previous month. The expected component production for March was 41.39GW, a 41.26% increase from the previous month. The domestic monthly inventory was 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease from the previous month, and the European monthly inventory was 38.41GW, a 12.30% increase from the previous month. The component production was profitable [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry was 40,060 yuan/ton, and the production income was - 810 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On March 30, the price of N - type dense material was 38,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 2,700 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 332,000 tons, a 3.48% decrease from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - Disk: The MA20 was downward, and the 05 contract price closed below the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, and the long position increased [8]. - Expectation: The supply schedule continued to increase, while the demand for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components was expected to increase in the short - term and decline in the medium - term. Overall demand showed a continuous decline. Cost support remained stable. The polysilicon 2605 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 35,475 - 37,625 [8]. Overall Logic - Bullish factors: Rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production [11]. - Bearish factors: Slow recovery of post - holiday demand and strong supply but weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market [12]. - Main logic: Capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Viewpoint [3][5][7] - Industrial silicon: Analyzed from supply, demand, cost, basis, inventory, disk, main position, and expectation, with a view on its future price range [6]. - Polysilicon: Analyzed from supply, demand, cost, basis, inventory, disk, main position, and expectation, with a view on its future price range [8]. 2. Industrial Silicon Market Overview [14] - Futures closing prices of different contracts showed various degrees of decline compared to the previous values. Spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon remained unchanged. Inventory data showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing. Production and operating rate data also showed different changes [15]. 3. Polysilicon Market Overview [16] - Futures closing prices of different contracts showed various degrees of increase or remained unchanged compared to the previous values. Prices and production data of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, etc. showed different trends, and inventory data also changed [16]. 4. Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends [18] - Showed the historical trends of the main contract basis and the price spread between 421 and 553 grades of industrial silicon [19]. 5. Industrial Silicon Inventory [21] - Presented the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises, as well as the registered warrant volume [22][23]. 6. Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends [25] - Showed the historical trends of weekly production, monthly production by specification, and operating rate of sample enterprises [26][27][28]. 7. Industrial Silicon Component Cost Trends [30] - Presented the historical trends of electricity prices in main production areas, silicon stone prices in main production areas, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices [31]. 8. Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends [33] - Showed the historical cost trends of 421 and 553 grades of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan, as well as the cost differences between them [34][35]. 9. Industrial Silicon Weekly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet [37] - Analyzed the weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon, including production, import, export, and actual consumption [38]. 10. Industrial Silicon Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet [40] - Analyzed the monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from February 2025 to February 2026, including production, import, export, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance [41]. 11. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Silicone - DMC Price and Production Trends [43] - Showed the historical trends of DMC daily capacity utilization, profit - cost, weekly production, and price [44]. 12. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Silicone - Downstream Price Trends [45] - Presented the historical price trends of 107 rubber, raw rubber, silicone oil, and D4 [46][47][48]. 13. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Silicone - Import - Export and Inventory Trends [49] - Showed the historical trends of DMC monthly import, export, and inventory [50][52]. 14. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Price and Supply Situation [54] - Presented the historical trends of scrap aluminum recycling, scrap aluminum social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, Chinese unforged aluminum alloy import - export situation, SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price, and import ADC12 cost - profit [55]. 15. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Inventory and Production Trends [57] - Showed the historical trends of monthly production of primary and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, weekly operating rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and aluminum alloy ingot social inventory [58]. 16. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Demand (Automobiles and Wheels) [60] - Presented the historical trends of monthly automobile production, sales, and aluminum alloy wheel export [61]. 17. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon Fundamental Trends [64] - Showed the historical trends of polysilicon industry cost, price, total inventory, monthly production, monthly operating rate, and monthly demand [65]. 18. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon Supply - Demand Balance Sheet [67] - Analyzed the monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon from February 2025 to February 2026, including supply, import, export, consumption, and balance [68]. 19. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Silicon Wafer Trends [70] - Presented the historical trends of silicon wafer price, weekly production, weekly inventory, monthly demand, and net export of single - crystal and poly - silicon wafers [71]. 20. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Battery Cell Trends [73] - Showed the historical trends of single - crystal P/N type battery cell price, battery cell production scheduling and actual production, photovoltaic battery external sales factory weekly inventory, photovoltaic battery operating rate, and battery cell export [74]. 21. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Component Trends [76] - Presented the historical trends of component price, domestic and European photovoltaic component inventory, monthly component production, and component export [77]. 22. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Accessory Trends [79] - Showed the historical trends of photovoltaic coating price, photovoltaic film import - export, photovoltaic glass monthly production, export, high - purity quartz sand price, and solder strip import - export [80]. 23. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends (210mm) [82] - Showed the historical trends of silicon material cost, silicon wafer profit - cost, battery cell profit - cost, and component profit - cost of 210mm double - sided double - glass components [82]. 24. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends [83] - Presented the historical trends of national new power generation capacity, power generation composition and total amount, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, distributed photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar monthly power generation [84]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is pessimistic, with polysilicon showing a weak and volatile trend. For industrial silicon, the supply remains relatively stable, demand is stable within a certain range, and high inventories are difficult to reduce, so the market is expected to remain volatile in the short term. For polysilicon, the supply - demand structure is weak, inventories are accumulating slightly and remaining at a high level, and it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: As of March 27, 2026, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the futures main contract rebounded from a low - level oscillation, closing at 8625 yuan/ton on March 27 [2][8] - **Supply**: Northwest China has stable production, the expectation of electricity price increase for large factories in Xinjiang has completely subsided. Yunnan and Sichuan are restricted by high electricity prices during the dry season, with low start - up rates and weak willingness to resume production. The overall start - up rate remains stable. Due to the self - discipline of silicon enterprises, the market has rebounded to some extent [2] - **Demand**: The weekly start - up rate of polysilicon enterprises is basically stable, with a limited increase in production in April and limited incremental demand for industrial silicon. The weekly start - up rate of organic silicon has declined slightly, and some monomer plants are under maintenance, with cautious procurement of industrial silicon. The start - up rate of aluminum alloy enterprises is basically stable, and terminal consumption has limited improvement. In February, industrial silicon exports were 47,500 tons, a 27% decrease from the previous month and a 7% increase year - on - year [2] - **Cost**: The cost of industrial silicon has increased slightly this week [2] - **Inventory**: As of March 26, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 560,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last week [2] - **Price Difference**: As of March 27, 2026, the price difference between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the price difference between Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 250 yuan/ton, also unchanged from last week [12] - **Output**: As of March 27, 2026, the number of open furnaces for national industrial silicon was 209, unchanged from last week; the start - up rate was 25.93%, unchanged from the previous week; the weekly output was 78,300 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous week [19] Polysilicon - **Price**: As of March 27, 2026, the spot price of N - type dense material was 41,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2000 yuan/ton from last week; the futures main contract continued to decline, closing at 35,680 yuan/ton on March 27 [3][15] - **Supply**: The market trading atmosphere is light, and both upstream and downstream enterprises are relatively pessimistic about the future market. Polysilicon production may increase to some extent in April, but the overall increase is limited [3] - **Demand**: The recovery of terminal installation demand is slow. Downstream enterprises mainly replenish stocks for刚需. Some silicon material enterprises are forced to accept low - price orders due to inventory and capital pressure. Silicon wafer prices continue to decline, and procurement demand is poor, with a wait - and - see attitude. In February, the import volume of polysilicon was 1,622.13 tons, a 55% increase from the previous month; the export volume was 2,214.66 tons, a 21% increase from the previous month [5] - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon has remained stable this week [5] - **Inventory**: As of March 27, 2026, the polysilicon factory inventory was 333,200 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons from last week [4][23] Downstream Products - **Silicon Wafers**: As of March 27, 2026, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm) and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 1.015, 1.015, 1.115 and 1.315 yuan/piece respectively, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/piece from last week. The silicon wafer market continued to operate weakly, with the actual transaction center moving down slightly and lacking effective support [27] - **Battery Cells**: As of March 27, 2026, M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were quoted at 0.39, 0.39, 0.39 and 0.39 yuan/watt respectively, a decrease of 0.02, 0.02, 0.02 and 0.015 yuan/watt from last week. The transaction price of the battery cell market continued to decline. Although leading enterprises still maintained prices, second - and third - tier enterprises sold at reduced prices, and low - price supplies affected the overall price [31] - **Components**: As of March 27, 2026, 182 single - sided TOPCon, 210 single - sided TOPCon, 182 double - sided TOPCon and 210 double - sided TOPCon were quoted at 0.79, 0.805, 0.79 and 0.805 yuan/watt respectively, unchanged from last week. The component market was generally stable, with few transactions, and there was an expectation of price reduction in the future [34] - **Organic Silicon**: As of March 27, 2026, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 14,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The start - up rate of organic silicon enterprises decreased slightly, and procurement became more cautious [37] - **Aluminum Alloys**: As of March 27, 2026, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 23,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from last week. The start - up of aluminum alloy enterprises was supported, but the incremental pull was limited [41]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the second quarter, industrial silicon is in a game between cost support and marginal inventory accumulation, with overall weak operation. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of the southwest during the wet season and the production control intensity of polysilicon. Polysilicon will continue its bottom - hitting rhythm. With the release of compliant production capacity under the energy consumption standard, the supply has changed from tight to loose, but the demand - bearing capacity is limited. During the policy implementation window period in April, the silicon material production has increased steadily, the delivery of photovoltaic centralized projects has slowed down, and the inventory of the industry may face increasing pressure. From May to June, the silicon material end moderately controls the speed to maintain prices. Although the photovoltaic installation has recovered steadily and the demand has improved slightly, it is still difficult to digest the supply increment. In the long - term, it is advisable to short on rebounds. The core is to focus on the actual terminal bearing capacity and inventory digestion performance after the end of the rush - to - export period. Currently, the policy expectations have been fully priced in, and a deep correction due to policy disappointment should be vigilant [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - In the first quarter, the industrial silicon futures fluctuated weakly. As of March 27, the main contract closed at 8,625 yuan/ton, with a quarterly decline of 2.65%. The polysilicon futures trended weakly, and the main contract closed at 35,680 yuan/ton, with a quarterly decline of 38.4% [5]. 2. Spot Price - All spot prices decreased. The price of non - oxygenated 553 decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 8,800 yuan/ton, the price of oxygenated 553 decreased by 400 yuan/ton to 9,000 yuan/ton, and the price of 421 decreased by 300 yuan/ton to 9,600 yuan/ton. The price of P - type polysilicon decreased by 12,000 yuan/ton to 32,000 yuan/ton, and the price of N - type polysilicon decreased by 13,300 yuan/ton to 38,500 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Spread - The spread between 553 grades narrowed, the spread between high - and low - grade products widened, the regional spread of 553 narrowed, and the regional spread of 421 narrowed. The industrial silicon spot changed from a discount of 10 yuan/ton to a premium of 175 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon spot changed from a discount of 6,920 yuan/ton to a premium of 4,070 yuan/ton [5][17]. 4. Supply - In the first quarter, the total domestic industrial silicon production reached 847,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. The number of open furnaces in the quarter decreased by 39 to 204, and the furnace - opening rate decreased by 4.9% to 25.6%. The proportion of the main production areas changed as follows: Xinjiang increased to 62.7%, Inner Mongolia increased to 11.3%, Gansu increased to 9.8%, Yunnan decreased to 5.2%, and Sichuan decreased to 0.5%. Xinjiang's production capacity was rapidly released, and the new production capacities in Inner Mongolia and Gansu continued to fill the production reduction gap in the southwest [4][5]. 5. Demand - In the first quarter, the polysilicon production was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.8%. The DMC production in the first quarter was 532,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.3%. From January to February, the aluminum alloy production was 2.765 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%, and the estimated production from January to March was 4.515 million tons. The estimated silicon consumption for organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy was 276,000 tons, 330,000 tons, and 181,000 tons respectively. From January to February, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 113,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.8% [4][5]. 6. Inventory - In terms of exchange inventory, in the first quarter, the overall inventory of industrial silicon increased by 6,020 tons to 111,400 tons, and the overall inventory of polysilicon increased by 18,000 tons to 30,100 tons. In terms of social inventory, in the first quarter, the industrial silicon inventory decreased by 20,600 tons to 435,600 tons, among which the factory inventory decreased by 15,100 tons to 251,000 tons; the inventory at Huangpu Port decreased by 1,500 tons to 56,500 tons, the inventory at Tianjin Port decreased by 6,000 tons to 74,000 tons, and the inventory at Kunming Port increased by 2,000 tons to 54,000 tons. The overall inventory of polysilicon increased by 23,700 tons to 332,000 tons [4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply last week was 78,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week. The demand was 68,000 tons, a 1.44% decrease week - on - week, and the demand remained sluggish. The cost support increased during the dry season. The industry is expected to be bearish, and the industrial silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8535 - 8715 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply last week was 19,400 tons, a 2.10% increase week - on - week, and the March production schedule is predicted to be 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase month - on - month. The overall demand shows a continuous decline. The cost support remains stable. The polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 34,630 - 36,730 [9]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans for production cuts. The main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply but weak demand of downstream polysilicon. The main logic is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment [12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 78,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 68,000 tons, a 1.44% decrease week - on - week. The demand for polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is in different states [6]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9,769.7 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week. The cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On March 27, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,150 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 525 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 560,000 tons, a 1.27% increase week - on - week; the sample enterprise inventory was 191,100 tons, a 3.38% decrease week - on - week; the main port inventory was 134,000 tons, a 1.47% decrease week - on - week, which is bearish [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position increased, which is bearish [6]. - Expectation: The supply production schedule increased, remaining at a low level. The demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support increased. The industrial silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8535 - 8715 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 19,400 tons, a 2.10% increase week - on - week. The March production schedule is predicted to be 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase month - on - month [9]. - Demand: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components shows different trends in the short and medium - term, and the overall demand shows a continuous decline [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 40,060 yuan/ton, and the production income is - 310 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On March 27, the price of N - type dense material was 39,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 4,070 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [9]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 332,000 tons, a 3.48% decrease week - on - week, at a high level in the same period of history, which is bearish [9]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20, which is bearish [9]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position increased, which is bullish [9]. - Expectation: The supply production schedule continues to increase. The demand shows a short - term increase and a medium - term callback. The cost support remains stable. The polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 34,630 - 36,730 [9]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices of different contracts showed different degrees of decline or increase compared with the previous values. The spot prices of different types of silicon remained mostly unchanged. The inventory showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures closing prices of different contracts showed different degrees of change. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable. The inventory decreased, and the export volume increased [16]. 3.3 Other Aspects - Industrial silicon price - basis and delivery product price difference trends: The report presents the trends of the basis and the price difference between 421 and 553 silicon over a long - term period [18]. - Industrial silicon inventory: It shows the inventory trends of different regions and types of industrial silicon over a long - term period, including delivery warehouses and ports, and sample enterprises [21]. - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization trends: It shows the trends of weekly production, monthly production by specification, and the opening rate of sample enterprises in different regions over a long - term period [25]. - Industrial silicon component cost trends: It shows the trends of electricity prices, silicon stone prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices in the main production areas over a long - term period [30]. - Industrial silicon cost - sample region trends: It shows the cost trends of 421 and 553 silicon in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan over a long - term period [33]. - Industrial silicon weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables: It shows the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance situations of industrial silicon, including production, consumption, import, and export [37][40]. - Industrial silicon downstream - organic silicon: It shows the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and other downstream products of organic silicon over a long - term period [43]. - Industrial silicon downstream - aluminum alloy: It shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (automobile and wheel hub) trends of aluminum alloy over a long - term period [55]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon: It shows the cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance trends of polysilicon and its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components over a long - term period [65]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - photovoltaic accessories: It shows the price, import - export, and production trends of photovoltaic accessories such as photovoltaic coating, photovoltaic film, photovoltaic glass, and high - purity quartz sand over a long - term period [80]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - component cost - profit trends: It shows the cost and profit trends of components such as silicon material, silicon wafer, battery cell, and component in 210mm double - sided double - glass components [83]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - photovoltaic grid - connected power generation: It shows the trends of new power generation installed capacity, power generation composition, and new grid - connected capacity of photovoltaic power stations over a long - term period [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the market is currently dominated by weak reality and weak expectations. Without supply - side policy drivers or demand - side positive news, the upside space is limited. In the short - term, it is expected to be in a weakly oscillating trend. The recommended strategy is to gradually short on rebounds when the price is between 8800 - 9000 [7][8]. - For polysilicon, the market is in a supply - demand loose pattern, with the overall market continuing to be weak. In the short - term, spot transactions may decline and reach a new low. It is recommended to wait and see for new driving factors [15][16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon Data Review 3.1.1 Market Conditions - The spot price of industrial silicon oscillated strongly this week. The ex - factory tax - included reference price of Chinese standard deliverable 553 was 8857 yuan/ton, a rise of 368 yuan/ton or 4.34% compared with March 19, 2026. The futures market rebounded and oscillated strongly, driving the spot price to be firm [7]. - The industrial silicon futures market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with overall weak oscillation this week. The main contract price briefly soared at the beginning of the week and then declined. As of Friday's close, it was 8625 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the beginning of the week. Market participation cooled down, with the trading volume of the main contract about 165,800 lots and the open interest around 223,200 lots [37]. 3.1.2 Influencing Factors - **Macro**: The performance of Dongyue Silicon Materials in 2025 was not good, with a year - on - year decline in revenue and a net loss. The downstream demand was weak this week, providing insufficient support for the industrial silicon price. The market procurement was mainly for rigid needs and small orders, and manufacturers' willingness to stock up was low [11]. - **Demand**: The demand from downstream industries was generally weak. The polysilicon price continued to fall, and the acceptance of raw materials was limited. The organic silicon maintained rigid - need procurement, and there were rumors that the organic silicon monomer plants might further cut production next month. The aluminum rod enterprises continued to resume production, but the overall procurement of industrial silicon increased limitedly. The export volume in February 2026 decreased compared with the previous month [11]. - **Supply**: The overall production this week changed little. A Yunnan enterprise stopped production, but the production reduction was not obvious due to the weekend. Currently, only 2 enterprises in Yunnan and 1 in Sichuan are in production. A northern enterprise plans to resume production in mid - April. Large manufacturers have no plans to increase or decrease production, and the industry's production capacity release is restrained [13]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slightly to 499,100 tons, a decrease of 0.6% compared with the previous week. The overall industry inventory remained at a high level, mainly concentrated in the northern social warehouses. The futures inventory as of March 27 was 111,385 tons, an increase of 25 tons compared with the previous week [13]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week, with electricity and raw material costs forming the bottom support for the price. The industry profit was generally low this week, with obvious regional differentiation [13]. 3.2 Polysilicon Data Review 3.2.1 Market Conditions - The polysilicon futures fell rapidly this week, with more cases of selling at lower prices to increase sales volume. The market transaction center continued to move down. The spot price of Chinese P - type polysilicon was 33,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,000 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the N - type was 39,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,000 yuan/ton [15]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also declined to varying degrees this week [137]. 3.2.2 Influencing Factors - **Macro**: A large - scale photovoltaic project in the Czech Republic was awarded to Aiko Solar, which is expected to promote the development of the local clean energy industry [17]. - **Demand**: Downstream demand was generally weak. Silicon wafer enterprises were cautious in raw material procurement, mainly for rigid - need replenishment. The demand for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components was weak, and the market was in a wait - and - see state [17]. - **Supply**: This week, a factory had local equipment problems, but it had no substantial impact on production and shipment. Two manufacturers did not reach their production increase plans this month. An Inner Mongolia factory is expected to start production in May, and a Xinjiang factory has a maintenance plan in June. The overall polysilicon industry's operating rate is maintained at 30%. The production in March is expected to recover to 86,000 tons, and the production in April is expected to be around 85,000 - 88,000 tons, basically the same as in March [18]. - **Inventory**: The polysilicon inventory this week was 381,600 tons, an increase of 0.39% compared with the previous week. The market was in a situation of oversupply, and the inventory was accumulating day by day [142]. - **Cost and Profit**: The average production cost of polysilicon this week was 44,189.79 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.7%. The gross profit and gross profit margin rebounded month - on - month to - 5,663.47 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.03% [152].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The industrial silicon is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term. The increase in production due to the resumption of production in March on the supply side will compete with the recovery of the silicone开工率 on the demand side, and the inventory level will fluctuate within a narrow range. The cost side provides certain support, and the cost range of silicon plants with purchased electricity serves as a reference for the current price. Attention should be paid to the impact of the resumption of work by large factories in April and the digestion of polysilicon inventory on the demand for industrial silicon [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review On March 26, 2026, the opening price of the main contract of industrial silicon futures was 8,785 yuan/ton, the closing price was 8,735 yuan/ton, the highest price was 8,790 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 8,685 yuan/ton, with a daily increase/decrease of 0.58%. The trading volume was 140,735 lots, the open interest was 229,643 lots, and the trading volume was 6.14658 billion yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market The industrial silicon spot market was generally stable, with prices remaining stable in many places and rising in some areas. In East China, the quoted price of oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,100 - 9,150 yuan/ton, and the quoted price of 421 silicon was 9,400 - 9,700 yuan/ton. In Xinjiang, the average price of industrial silicon (441) on March 19 was 8,850 yuan/ton, with a price range of 8,600 - 9,100 yuan/ton. As of March 19, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 553,000 tons, and the social inventory continued to fluctuate within a narrow range. On the supply side, some production capacities resumed in March, and it is expected that the average daily output of industrial silicon in March will increase by about 13% month-on-month, and the inventory in March is expected to remain flat or experience a slight reduction [2]. 3.3 Main Influencing Factors - **Cost Factor**: The price of industrial silicon fluctuates with the price of raw coal. The low cash cost range of silicon plants with purchased electricity is around 8,300 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and the cash cost range of silicon plants with self - generated electricity is relatively lower [2]. - **Supply and Demand Fundamentals**: On the supply side, according to Longzhong data, the national industrial silicon output last week was 76,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 200 tons. On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream silicone has begun to recover, and the price is relatively stable. The export volume of silicone from January to February increased significantly year - on - year [3]. - **Related Market Impact**: The polysilicon market has a high inventory, a low operating rate, and the spot price continues to decline. The futures market has fallen into the cash cost range of large factories. The cumulative exports of photovoltaic modules, battery cells, and polysilicon from January to February increased year - on - year [3]. 3.4 Short - term Outlook The industrial silicon is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term. The increase in production due to the resumption of production in March on the supply side will compete with the recovery of the silicone开工率 on the demand side, and the inventory level will fluctuate within a narrow range. The cost side provides certain support, and the cost range of silicon plants with purchased electricity serves as a reference for the current price. Attention should be paid to the impact of the resumption of work by large factories in April and the digestion of polysilicon inventory on the demand for industrial silicon [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The supply side is expected to gradually release after a significant contraction since the Spring Festival, while the demand for polysilicon remains weak. In the long - term, price support is evident, and the overall situation is one of weak supply and demand. [3] - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue a weak oscillation. The continuous weakness of industrial silicon prices weakens the cost support for polysilicon. The expected demand from the "rush to export" before April has not materialized, and high inventories make it difficult for the industrial chain to transmit demand. [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On March 26, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and rose. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,785 yuan/ton and closed at 8,735 yuan/ton, a change of 50 yuan/ton (0.58%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the 2605 main contract at the close was 230,888 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on March 25, 2026 was 22,272 lots, a change of 60 lots from the previous day. [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,100 - 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,700 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 8,500 - 8,600 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8,500 - 8,600 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable. [1] - SMM statistics show that the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on March 19 was 553,000 tons, a decrease of 0.18% from the previous week. [1] - The downstream demand for polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy all decreased to varying degrees after the festival, and most of the post - festival inquiries were exploratory. [1] - The operating rate in Xinjiang exceeded 50%. After the festival, the supply side gradually recovered, but the operating rate in the southwest region remained low during the dry season. [1] Cost - Recently, the prices of petroleum coke and Xinjiang electricity have increased, providing solid cost support for industrial silicon. [2] Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. Short - term interval operation is recommended. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options. [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On March 26, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated and declined, opening at 36,750 yuan/ton and closing at 35,540 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.78% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 33,451 lots (32,820 lots the previous day), and the trading volume on that day was 8,529 lots. [3] - The spot price of polysilicon decreased. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 36.00 - 43.50 yuan/kg (- 0.75 yuan/kg), and the price of n - type granular silicon was 40.00 - 43.00 yuan/kg (no change). [4] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, while the inventory of silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics show that the polysilicon inventory was 332,000 tons, a change of - 3.49% month - on - month, the silicon wafer inventory was 27.65GW, a change of - 2.47% month - on - month, the weekly polysilicon output was 19,000 tons, with no change month - on - month, and the silicon wafer output was 11.78GW, a change of - 1.67% month - on - month. [4] - After the polysilicon price fell below the cost level of 40,000 yuan/ton last week, the market sentiment was pessimistic. Coupled with the continuous weakness of the fundamentals and the impact of the US - Iran conflict on commodities as a whole, the polysilicon price fluctuated and declined, reaching around 35,000 yuan/ton. Most enterprises in the market were in a loss, and only a few enterprises maintained profitability. Affected by cost pressure, the expected production capacity of enterprises will significantly shrink, and attention should also be paid to the possibility of a price rebound after over - decline. [6] Strategy - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue a weak oscillation. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and the main contract is expected to maintain an oscillation in the short term. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options. [7]