上 市 公 司 基础化工 2025 年 08 月 26 日 兴发集团 (600141) ——业绩符合预期，收购桥沟矿业 50%股权再添磷矿增 量，磷肥及草甘膦弹性或助盈利增长 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025H1 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 28,396 | 14,620 | 29,457 | 30,903 | 31,571 | | 同比增长率（%） | 0.4 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 2.2 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,601 | 727 | 2,107 | 2,668 | 3,176 | | 同比增长率（%） | 14.3 | -9.7 | 31.6 | 26.6 | 19.0 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 1.45 | 0.66 | 1.91 | 2.42 | 2.88 | | 毛利率（%） | 19.5 | 16.4 | 20.3 | 21.3 | 22.8 | | ROE ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 8 月 26 日） 点评 25 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2511 收于 8675 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.06%， 持仓增仓 9744 手至 28.9 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9478 元/吨，较 上一交易日上调 71 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格回涨至 8800 元/吨， 现货升水收至 55 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2511 收于 51580 元/ 吨，日内涨幅 0.73%，持仓减仓 5596 手至 13.9 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投 硅料价格涨至 49000 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格跌至 44500 元/吨，现 货贴水扩至 7060 元/吨。工业硅成本随硅煤价格提升，硅厂向贸易商出 货量高而下游购货量偏少，上下空间收窄、延续调整节奏。反内卷完 成对多晶硅价格的基本把控，西南放产下社库和仓单持续增压，产业 出清并未实际推进，多晶硅量价分离格局持续扩大。近期市场高度聚 焦于六部委联合召开的光伏产业会，或由直接控产向产能技术指标挂 钩不断过度。反内卷会议相关动态对短期盘面存在绝对驱动，或引导 预期修正下升水回调幅度。建议谨慎高位布空，工信部 9 月底前 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 基础化工 2025 年 08 月 26 日 基础化工 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 34% 43% 51% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 基础化工 沪深300 相关研究 1.《东方铁塔（002545.SZ）：从东 方铁塔到东方资源》，2025.8.21 2.《反内卷，化工慢牛的宏大叙事》， 2025.8.20 3.《民航局发布碳足迹核算标准， SAF 、 UCO 价格继续上升》， 2025.8.18 4.《关注新疆板块投资机遇》， 2025.8.11 5.《供应缩量&外需强劲，甲酸价格 快速上行》，2025.8.7 金九银十！SAF、UCO 持续上涨，关 注有机硅协同反弹机会 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 核心观点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 本周基础化工板块表现差于大盘。根据 Wind，本周（8/15-8/22）上证综指涨 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月26日 兴发集团（600141.SH） 优于大市 磷矿石、草甘膦盈利提升，多项目培育新利润增长点 磷化工全产业链平稳运行，上半年利润保持稳健。2025 年上半年，公司实现营 业收入 146.20 亿元，同比增长 9.07%；实现归母净利润 7.27 亿元，同比下 降 9.72%；销售毛利率为 16.44%，同比下降 0.94 pcts。分业务来看，2024 年上半年，公司矿山采选业务实现营业收入 15.50 亿元，同比增长 19.64%， 毛利率 78.27%，同比提升 6.55 pcts；特种化学品业务实现营业收入 26.15 亿元，同比增长 0.28%，毛利率 18.03%，同比下降 7.42 pcts；肥料业务实 现营业收入 19.24 亿元，毛利率 6.60%；农药业务实现营业收入 25.68 亿元， 毛利率 12.46%；有机硅业务实现营业收入 13.69 亿元，同比增长 16.62%， 毛利率-2.22%，同比提升 2.22 pcts；商贸物流业务实现营业收入 25.14 亿 元，同比增长 18.44%，毛利率 3.24%，同比提升 1.43 pcts。公司上半年 ...

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 2025 年 08 月 25 日 美联储降息预期叠加国内反内卷催 化，重视化工板块配置价值，国产 算力链景气向上 看好 ——《化工周报 25/08/18-25/08/22》 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 周超 A0230123090004 zhouchao@swsresearch.com 李绍程 A0230525070002 lisc@swsresearch.com 赵文琪 A0230523060003 zhaowq@swsresearch.com 联系人 马昕晔 (8621)23297818× maxy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of the cycle, but leading Chinese companies have strong cash flow and low debt ratios, which may enhance potential dividend yields as capacity expansion slows down [1][3][5] - Global GDP growth supports chemical demand, and changes on the supply side combined with demand growth are expected to lead to a recovery in industry prosperity [1][4] Key Insights - The "anti-involution" policy aims to control new capacity in sectors like coal chemical, refining, and polyurethane, which may still yield considerable dividend rates even at the cycle's bottom [1][5] - The industrial silicon and soda ash sectors, which are currently in surplus, have greater elasticity due to restrictions on existing and new capacities [1][5] - The oil and gas chemical sector has begun to see positive free cash flow in 2024, indicating a gradual improvement in the industry [8] Financial Metrics - In 2024, the net cash flow for the chemical industry is projected to shrink to nearly 20 billion, while total operating cash flow exceeds 250 billion [7] - Capital expenditures are expected to decrease from 350 billion to below 300 billion [7] - By 2025 or 2026, the industry is anticipated to generate positive net free cash flow, marking a historic shift [7] Company-Specific Insights - Hualu Hengsheng's market value in 2024 is approximately 50.6 billion, with cash flow expected to rise from 5 billion in 2025 to 8.3 billion by 2027, suggesting attractive dividend yields even in a downturn [9] - The European chemical production capacity utilization is at a historical low of around 74%, indicating that high-cost production is unlikely to recover, which benefits Chinese companies with cost advantages [10][11] Future Trends - The chemical industry is expected to see a rebound in prosperity due to low inventory levels and attractive valuations [11] - The exit of high-cost European production will allow Chinese leaders to further consolidate and expand their market positions [11] - The polyurethane sector is currently at a cyclical low, but price recovery is anticipated due to supply constraints and demand growth [18][19] Challenges and Opportunities - The olefin industry faces challenges with low prices, but strict approval processes for new capacities may lead to a recovery if production contracts [16] - The refining sector is grappling with overcapacity and outdated facilities, but the anti-involution policy may help improve market conditions for major players [17] - The organic silicon market is at a historical low, but limited new capacity and potential overseas exits may lead to a recovery in the medium to long term [24][25][26] Sector-Specific Recommendations - Focus on companies in controlled capacity sectors like coal chemicals (e.g., Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy) and refining (e.g., Sinopec) for potential dividend yields [5][17] - Monitor the industrial silicon market for companies like Hesheng Silicon Industry, which may see profit doubling if prices recover [32] - In the soda ash sector, companies like Boyuan Chemical are worth watching as they navigate a challenging market [33] Conclusion - The chemical industry is poised for a potential recovery driven by policy changes, strong cash flows from leading companies, and a favorable global economic backdrop. Investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals and those positioned to benefit from supply-side constraints and market shifts.

证券代码：839979 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 工业硅期货周报 2025年08月18日-08月22日 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望——工业硅 本周11合约为下跌态势,周一开盘价为8805元/吨,周五收盘价为8745元/吨，周跌幅为0.68%。 供给端来看,本周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比增加1.15%。本周样本企业产量为38235万吨,环比增加 1.81%;其中云南样本企业开工率为68.04%,环比持平,四川样本企业开工率为30.68%,环比增加2.54%,新疆样 本企业开工率为58.48%,环比增加2.27%,西北样本企业开工率为76%,环比持平。预计本月开工率为53.8%,较 上月开工率52.61%增加1.19个百分点。 需求端来看,本周工业硅需求为7.9万 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Guotai announced plans to utilize up to 12 billion yuan of idle funds for wealth management and 1.8306 billion yuan for securities investment, while also reporting a net profit of 545 million yuan for the first half of the year, reflecting a growth of 10.85% year-on-year [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Management Plans - The company plans to use up to 12 billion yuan of idle funds for wealth management, focusing on low to medium-risk financial products such as structured deposits and government bond reverse repos [1]. - The total amount for wealth management can be rolled over, with a maximum single product term of 36 months, and funds must be used within 12 months from the approval date [2]. - For securities investment, the company intends to use up to 1.8306 billion yuan, which includes 330.6 million yuan already utilized, ensuring that daily operational needs are met [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, the company achieved a revenue of 18.597 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.48% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 545 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 10.85%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 524 million yuan, up by 2.05% [2]. Group 3: Business Segments - The supply chain service segment primarily focuses on import and export trade of consumer goods, with textile and apparel revenue reaching 15.801 billion yuan, accounting for 84.96% of total revenue and growing by 7.93% year-on-year [3]. - The chemical and new energy segment, which includes electronic chemicals and organic silicon, reported a revenue of 975 million yuan, a decrease of 7.36% year-on-year [3]. Group 4: Project Termination - The company announced the termination of the investment in a 400,000-ton lithium battery electrolyte project due to changes in external conditions and industry environment, with an initial investment plan of 1.538 billion yuan [4]. - The project had not yet commenced construction, and the company anticipates that the production capacity would be difficult to absorb under current market conditions, leading to a significant decline in expected investment returns [4].

基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 8 月 22 日 强于大市 化工行业周报 20250817 碳酸锂价格上涨，国际油价、有机硅价格下跌 八月份建议关注：1、中报行情；2、"反内卷"对相关子行业供给端影响；3、自主可控日益关 键背景下的电子材料公司；4、分红派息政策稳健的能源企业等。 行业动态 投资建议 相关研究报告 《化工行业周报 20250810》20250811 《化工行业周报 20250803》20250805 《化工行业周报 20250727》20250728 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 基础化工 证券分析师：余嫄嫄 (8621)20328550 yuanyuan.yu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300517050002 联系人：赵泰 tai.zhao@bocichina.com 一般证券业务证书编号：S1300123070003 本周（08.11-08.17）均价跟踪的 100 个化工品种中，共有 28 个品种价格上涨，42 个品种价 格下跌，30 个品种价格稳定。跟踪的产品中 57%的产品月均价环比上涨，37%的产品月均 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.22」 工业硅多晶硅市场周报 双硅高位徘徊震荡，震旦行情继续延续 研究员:黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 u 行情回顾： 本周工业硅下跌0.68%，本周多晶硅下跌2.53%。本周工业硅期货市场呈现出先跌后涨的走势，整体波动较 为剧烈，上半周在整体基本面压制下，工业硅出现了回落表现，但到了周五，收到光伏开会影响，价格出现了反弹， 多晶硅期货市场整体高位震荡，虽然光伏行业开会对多晶硅形成部分利好因素，但整体市场对于高价货物接受度依旧 不高，价格在达到52000以上后再次回落。 u 行情展望：工业硅方面，供应端，西南地区随着丰水期深入，随着丰水期深入，西南地区电价优势愈发明显，刺激硅 厂复产进程加快。四川、云南等地新增开炉数量不断上升，预计下周西南地区工业硅产量将环比增长。例如，四川部 分前期停产硅厂已在近期重启生产，产能逐步释放。新疆部分大厂生产节奏保持稳定，不过中小硅厂受成本及市场价 格影响，复产积极性依旧不高，整体产量维持平稳。但倘若后续市场价格出现较大波动，大厂也可能调整生产计划。 需求端看，工业硅的下游主要集中在有机硅、多 ...