万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 工业硅震荡调整；多晶硅风险担忧 下市场情绪宣泄，短期盘整运行 工业硅&多晶硅周报 从业资格号：F03133967 2026/01/10 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 多晶硅 02 期现市场 05 有机硅 03 工业硅 06 硅铝合金及出口 产业链示意图 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 ◆ 需求： 百川盈孚口径下多晶硅周度产量为2.54万吨，环比小幅下行。 百川盈孚口径DMC产量4.4万吨，环比-0.04万吨。 1-11月，铝合金累计产量1745.60万吨，累计同比+289.50万吨或+19.88%。 1-11月，我国工业硅累计净出口65.14万吨，累计同比+1.24万吨或+1.95%。 ◆ 库存：截至2026/1/9，百川盈孚统计口径工业硅库存51.23万吨，环比+0.33万吨。其中，工厂库存26.69万吨，环比-0.10万吨；市场库存 19.10万吨，环比+0.10万吨；已注册仓单库存5.44万吨，环比+0.33万吨。 ...

证券研究报告 2026年1月9日 行业：基础化工 增持 （维持） 分析师：于庭泽 SAC编号：S0870523040001 分析师：郭吟冬 SAC编号：S0870525110001 主要观点 周期有望回暖，新兴需求成长可期 ——化工行业2026年度投资策略 u 建议关注： 风险提示：原油价格波动、需求不达预期、宏观经济下行。 2 u 化工行业景气回升，周期有望回暖。行业供给增速预期放缓，补库周期已经开启，国家层面持续强化政策 引导，新一轮供给侧改革蓄势待发。关注制冷剂、钾肥、有机硅、磷化工等景气上行板块。 u 关注新材料成长性机会。（1）锂电材料：固态电池产业化进程加速，利好相关材料；（2）光刻胶：下游 半导体需求旺盛，光刻胶作为产业链关键材料，国产替代加速。 行情回顾：2025年基础化工指数回升，化工品价格弱势运行 图1 2024年至今基础化工指数走势 图2 CCPI化工品价格指数 资料来源：iFinD，上海证券研究所 资料来源： iFinD，上海证券研究所 1. 制冷剂：金石资源、巨化股份、三美股份、永和股份； 2. 钾肥：亚钾国际、盐湖股份； 3. 有机硅：东岳硅材、兴发集团、新安股份、鲁西化工； 4. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2026 年 1 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 点评 8 日工业硅震荡走弱，主力 2605 收于 8535/吨，日内跌幅 4.53%，持仓增 仓 15797 手至 26.1 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9628 元/吨，较上一交 易日持稳。最低交割品价格持稳在 8850 元/吨，现货贴水转至升水 315 元/吨。多晶硅多合约跌停，主力 2605 收于 53610 元/吨，日内跌幅达跌 停板 9%，持仓减仓 9751 手至 5.8 万手；百川多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格 上涨至 55500 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格 53500 元/吨，现货对主力贴 水转至升水 1890 元/吨。工业硅主产重心延续向北转移，虽有环保控产 减量但难抵需求降幅空间，多晶硅限额减产，有机硅抱团减产，铝合金 环保减产，工业硅有成本支撑无持续驱动，延续高位布空思路对待。多 晶硅交易的核心逻辑是关于产能平台建立，以收储形式的进行供给侧控 产，但收储动作迟迟不落地，市场担心生变。另外交易所几轮提保，执 行风控限仓，叠加低仓单压力大幅缓解，过热投机性情绪消散。在市场 重议产业链利润分配问题和下游减产问题后，多晶硅上 ...

钱塘潮涌，奔竞不息。 从"一口大缸、一辆自行车"起家，传化集团有限公司乘着改革开放的时代大潮发展壮大，从一个家庭小 作坊成长为涵盖化学化工、智能物流、科技农业、生命科学等领域，拥有1.6万多名员工的千亿级现代 产业集团，业务覆盖130多个国家和地区，下属2家上市公司、21家高新技术企业和23家专精特新企业， 名列"中国民营企业500强"与"中国企业500强"双榜。 2024年5月，习近平总书记主持召开企业和专家座谈会，传化集团有限公司董事长徐冠巨参会发言。 2025年2月，习近平总书记主持召开民营企业座谈会时勉励广大民营企业，要坚定不移走高质量发展之 路，坚守主业、做强实业，加强自主创新，转变发展方式，不断提高企业质量、效益和核心竞争力。 在浙江传化合成材料股份有限公司生产车间，记者见到了这块"稀土顺丁橡胶"。传送带上，一块块形似 海绵的乳白色橡胶正在进行检测。这种橡胶是以稀土金属钕为主体的催化体系聚合而成，强度高、抗湿 滑、滚动阻力低，可以更好满足新能源汽车对于起步快、抓地力高的需求。该公司基地总经理高久奇告 诉记者，一吨稀土顺丁橡胶，比普通合成橡胶贵数千元。 这小小一块橡胶，过去全球仅有一两家企业能够生产 ...

涨价信号：景气发轫与延续的新线索 央行四季度例会指出"促进经济稳定增长和物价合理回升"，价格信号的重要性日趋凸显。自2025年下半 年起，随着国内反内卷政策推进，叠加全球弱美元的宽松环境，涨价逻辑在部分领域逐步开启。 具体来看，三大领域值得关注：一是需求改善但供给收缩的化工板块，如有机硅、制冷剂、农药、溴 素、PTA等，以及新能源领域的碳酸锂、六氟磷酸锂、多晶硅等；二是需求急剧扩张令供给短期难以跟 上的TMT供应链，如存储芯片、覆铜板、电子布等；三是金融与需求属性同步提升的有色板块，如贵 金属、工业金属与小金属等。 2026 年开年以来，A 股市场迎来多重积极信号。国泰海通证券发布研报，认为政策预期、流动性与基 本面共振上修，A 股市场有望迎接春季"开门红"。涨价信号下，产业景气正在发轫与延续。行情看好的 重点在科技、非银、消费。 春季行情逻辑：三大支撑因素 海外流动性宽松预期升温。 美联储下任主席谜底即将揭晓，市场开始憧憬2026年美国降息前景。海外 流动性宽松，叠加春节前结汇，有望推动人民币稳定与升值，为A股市场提供有利的外部环境。 增量资金持续涌入。 以A500ETF为代表的增量资金持续流入市场，叠加险 ...

合盛硅业所属申万行业为：基础化工-化学制品-有机硅。所属概念板块包括：有机硅、多晶硅、长三角 一体化、融资融券、太阳能等。 截至9月30日，合盛硅业股东户数5.09万，较上期增加14.42%；人均流通股23235股，较上期减少 12.60%。2025年1月-9月，合盛硅业实现营业收入152.06亿元，同比减少25.35%；归母净利润-3.21亿 元，同比减少122.10%。 分红方面，合盛硅业A股上市后累计派现53.21亿元。近三年，累计派现23.66亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，合盛硅业十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第七大流 通股东，持股989.06万股，相比上期减少471.33万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第八大流通 股东，持股596.81万股，相比上期减少33.74万股。申万宏源证券有限公司位居第九大流通股东，持股 503.92万股，相比上期增加6101.00股。易方达沪深300ETF（510310）位居第十大流通股东，持股 435.89万股，相比上期减少16.39万股。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出7588.01万元，特大单买入593 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2026 年 1 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 点评 7 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 8980 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.07%，持 仓增仓 10123 手至 24.5 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9603 元/吨，较上 一交易日持稳。最低交割品价格持稳在 8850 元/吨，现货贴水扩至 130 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2605 收于 58300 元/吨，日内跌幅 2.13%，持仓减仓 4553 手至 6.78 万手；百川多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格持 稳在 53500 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格 53500 元/吨，现货对主力贴水 收至 4800 元/吨。工业硅主产重心延续向北转移，虽有环保控产减量但 难抵需求降幅空间，多晶硅限额减产，有机硅抱团减产，铝合金环保减 产，工业硅有成本支撑无向上驱动，可适当考虑反弹布空。虽然近期电 池片带动光伏产业链提价，但因组件环节传导受阻，进一步提涨效果有 限，下游进一步扩大减产规模。1 月行业自律叠加硅料联合减产，多晶 硅有望出现超预期供给减量，给予较强支撑。同时由于交易所执行风控 限仓，上方溢价空间收紧。重点关注硅料厂减产落实情 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-08 库存持续积压，多晶硅震荡下行 工业硅： 工业硅价格预计将维持区间震荡，供需双减的情况下叠加焦煤价格上涨与光伏产业链价格上涨传导效果，价格支 撑明显。上行高度取决于下游需求恢复和库存去化进度，下行空间则受成本支撑和减产预期限制。 单边：短期区间操作 跨期：无 跨品种：无 市场分析 2026-01-07，工业硅期货价格震荡上涨，主力合约2605开于9050元/吨，最后收于8980元/吨，较前一日结算变化（95） 元/吨，变化（1.07）%。截止收盘，2605主力合约持仓244734手，2026-01-06仓单总数为10799手，较前一日变化 112手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8800（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8800（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 SMM统计12月31日工业硅主要地区社会库存共55.7万吨，较上周变化0.36%。 消费端：据SMM统 ...

12 月初行业协同会议决定观察到今年 2 月份，这三个月内维持 70%的限产水 平，根据情况可能调整至 75%或 80%。下游需求增长良好，从去年的数据看， 下游需求增长 10%至 20%。公司通过招商引资吸引下游企业入驻厂区周边， 实现管道直接输送，仅去年 11 月销量增长近 30%。 目前价格稳定在成本线以 上，但仍处于保本微利状态。如果要实现行业健康发展，需要一定利润，因此 预计价格可能上涨 10%左右，即达到 15,000-16,000 元/吨区间。这将带来接 近 10%的利润水平，有助于研发投入和工艺改进，从而促进行业良性循环。目 前每 1,000 元的价格波动对公司而言代表着两到三个亿的利润波动。本周元旦 兴发集团 20260107 摘要 兴发集团计划通过乔沟矿业采矿权证的获取和白水河磷矿股权收购，提 升磷矿石产能至 1,000 万吨，以保障未来磷资源供应，预计乔沟矿业 2026 年二季度开始建设，为公司磷化工产业链提供坚实基础。 特化板块以磷酸盐为核心，通过高附加值产品如"新发 A"和乙硫醇等， 实现盈利增长，预计 2026 年特化板块将继续推出 BCD 系列磷化剂和电 池级五硫化二磷等新产品， ...