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2026全球数字货币新格局:三极分化与秩序重构丨未来实验室
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2026-01-12 12:40
Core Viewpoint - The global monetary financial system has entered a new phase of "triple differentiation" as of January 2026, driven by the implementation of China's digital yuan (e-CNY), the U.S. GENIUS Act, and Europe's defensive alliances, marking a shift from mere payment efficiency improvements to a profound restructuring of the post-World War II Bretton Woods system [1] Group 1: China's Paradigm - The new digital yuan framework effective from January 1, 2026, signifies an expansion of monetary banking theory, transitioning from "M0 replacement" to a more financially expansive "digital deposit currency" paradigm [4] - The new framework introduces a dual balance sheet structure, where e-CNY balances are legally defined as commercial bank liabilities, allowing digital currency to participate in the fractional reserve system and enabling banks to use e-CNY as a stable source of liabilities for credit issuance [5] - The introduction of a market-based interest rate mechanism allows commercial banks to pay interest on e-CNY wallets, transforming e-CNY into a high-liquidity interest-bearing asset, enhancing its appeal for global trade partners seeking asset preservation [6] Group 2: U.S. Strategy - The U.S. GENIUS Act establishes a unique digital currency strategy by abandoning retail CBDC development and instead regulating private digital currencies to serve as digital extensions of U.S. dollar hegemony [8] - The Act mandates that compliant digital currencies maintain a 1:1 liquidity asset reserve, effectively converting global demand for liquidity into a rigid demand for U.S. Treasury securities, creating a decentralized "digital treasury bond" distribution network [8][9] - The U.S. retains control through stringent regulations on centralized issuers, allowing for immediate and irreversible actions against specific blockchain addresses, enhancing its regulatory reach [9] Group 3: Europe's Dilemma - Europe is in a defensive phase, delaying the digital euro until 2029 due to privacy concerns and legislative challenges, adopting a mixed strategy of regulatory barriers and banking alliances [10] - The MiCA regulation establishes strict localization requirements for digital currencies, driving out non-compliant offshore entities while creating space for compliant institutions [10] - The digital euro's legislative focus has shifted towards a conservative "offline-first" principle, limiting its programmability and online compatibility, while public debates continue regarding the necessity of a robust public digital euro [11] Group 4: Core Variables Reshaping Competition - Interest rate competition is emerging as a key variable, with the introduction of interest-bearing e-CNY challenging the traditional dominance of non-interest-bearing digital dollars [12] - Infrastructure is critical, with China's mBridge creating a decentralized network that bypasses traditional SWIFT structures, while the U.S. attempts to upgrade existing systems [12] - The rise of smart contracts is leading to a contest over the definition of rules, with China promoting state-defined codes and the U.S. favoring private sector standards [12] Conclusion - The year 2026 marks a significant differentiation in global digital currencies, where currency transcends mere value measurement to become an extension of state will, necessitating adaptation to these profound changes for future survival and development [13]