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真实、残酷的AI就业冲击,从一篇精彩的哈佛论文聊起
虎嗅APP· 2025-09-20 14:20
Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of AI on the job market, particularly focusing on how it affects entry-level positions and the employment landscape for young workers [6][7][8]. Group 1: AI's Impact on Employment - A study from Harvard University analyzed the effects of AI on the U.S. job market, revealing a significant decline in entry-level job opportunities since the introduction of AI technologies like ChatGPT [12][14][24]. - The research utilized a comprehensive dataset covering 285,000 companies and 62 million resumes, indicating a clear divergence in employment growth between junior and senior positions from 2015 to 2022 [17][18][19]. - The study found that companies adopting AI technologies saw a dramatic drop in entry-level hiring, with a 7.7% decrease in junior positions compared to non-AI companies after AI adoption [38][42]. Group 2: Mechanisms of Job Reduction - The decline in entry-level positions was primarily due to a halt in hiring rather than increased turnover rates, with AI-using companies hiring an average of 3.7 fewer junior employees per quarter [46][47][48]. - This trend was particularly pronounced in the wholesale and retail sectors, where AI-adopting companies reduced entry-level hiring by nearly 40% [55][56]. Group 3: Educational Background and Job Market Dynamics - The study categorized employees by their university tier, revealing a "U-shaped curve" where graduates from mid-tier universities (Tier 2 and Tier 3) faced the most significant job losses, while those from top-tier (Tier 1) and bottom-tier (Tier 5) universities were less affected [60][64][65]. - Companies preferred hiring top-tier graduates for their problem-solving abilities, while bottom-tier graduates were favored for their lower salary expectations, leaving mid-tier graduates vulnerable to AI-driven job reductions [63][64]. Group 4: Recommendations for Workers - Workers are advised to quickly transition from entry-level roles to more complex tasks that AI cannot easily replace, aiming for a job content where AI cannot substitute more than 50% of their responsibilities [69][74]. - Emphasis is placed on developing unique contextual knowledge and skills that AI cannot replicate, as well as leveraging personal interests to enhance competitiveness in the job market [75][80].
复旦大学/上海创智学院邱锡鹏:Context Scaling,通往AGI的下一幕
机器之心· 2025-06-15 04:40
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of Context Scaling as a crucial step towards achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), emphasizing the need for AI to understand and adapt to complex and ambiguous contexts rather than merely increasing model size or data volume [2][21]. Summary by Sections Evolution of Large Models - The evolution of large models is summarized in three acts: 1. The first act focuses on the success of model scaling, where data and parameters are stacked to compress knowledge, leading to the emergence of models like ChatGPT and MOSS [6]. 2. The second act involves post-training optimization, enhancing decision-making capabilities through methods like reinforcement learning and multi-modal approaches, exemplified by models such as GPT o1/o3 and DeepSeek-R1 [6][7]. 3. The third act, Context Scaling, aims to address the challenges of defining context to improve model capabilities, particularly in complex and nuanced situations [8][21]. Context Scaling - Context Scaling is defined as the ability of AI to understand and adapt to rich, complex, and dynamic contextual information, which is essential for making reasonable judgments in ambiguous scenarios [8][9]. - The concept of "tacit knowledge" is introduced, referring to the implicit understanding that humans possess but is difficult to articulate, which AI must learn to capture [11][12]. Three Technical Pillars - Context Scaling is supported by three key capabilities: 1. Strong Interactivity: AI must learn from interactions, understanding social cues and cultural nuances [14][15]. 2. Embodiment: AI needs a sense of agency to perceive and act within its environment, which can be tested in virtual settings [16]. 3. Anthropomorphizing: AI should resonate emotionally with humans, understanding complex social interactions and cultural sensitivities [17]. Challenges and Integration - The article highlights that Context Scaling is not a replacement for existing scaling methods but rather complements them by focusing on the quality and structure of input data [18]. - It also redefines the environment for reinforcement learning, moving beyond simple state-action-reward loops to include rich contextual information [20]. Conclusion - The exploration of Context Scaling aims to unify various technological paths under the core goal of contextual understanding, which is seen as essential for navigating the complexities of the real world and a potential key to achieving AGI [22].