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华西证券:未来一周或是债市方向选择的重要岔口
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 00:20
Core Viewpoint - The upcoming week is a critical juncture for the bond market, determining its direction for recovery or further decline [1] Group 1: Market Direction - If the bond market opts for a recovery, it is advisable to extend duration positions promptly [1] - In the event of continued market decline, a strategy of small, frequent purchases may be considered to capitalize on potential market tops [1] Group 2: Comparative Analysis - From a cost-performance perspective, the 30-year government bonds and 10-year policy bank bonds offer better value compared to 10-year government bonds [1] - The yield spread between 30-year government bonds and 10-year government bonds, as well as the spread between 10-year policy bank bonds and government bonds, have reached new highs over the past year [1] Group 3: Yield Curve Strategy - After a two-week adjustment period, the yield spread between 10-year and 1-year government bonds has rebounded from extremely low levels to the 50-60% percentile range [1] - Future strategies may include employing a barbell approach to take advantage of opportunities for curve flattening [1]