证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 10 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：股债新阶段 复盘与思考: 12 月 10 日 ，债涨股跌的跷跷板效应依旧延续。股市延续剧烈分化状态，昨日领涨的科技概念今日低开高 走，政策预期引领下，地产板块与概念异军突起。债市暂未出现显著的实质利好，不过市场情绪较为积极，中长 端走出普涨行情。 权益市场低开高走。万得全 A 上涨 0.12%，全天成交额 1.79 万亿元，较昨日（12 月 9 日）缩量 1261 亿元。 港股方面，恒生指数和恒生科技分别上涨 0.42%和 0.48%。南向资金净流出 10.18 亿港元，其中小米集团净流入 6.20 亿港元，腾讯控股和中芯国际分别净流出 6.06 亿港元、4.51 亿港元。 指数触及支撑位后反弹。我们曾在《等待破局》中提及，若指数强势突破 11 月 21 日大跌前的点位（6230）， 这一点位就会从压力位转化为支撑位。今日万得全 A 早盘低开，一度下探至 6230 附近，之后市场开始回升，说明 这一支撑位比较牢靠。当前指数已经进入修复行情的第二阶段，震荡状态可能延续，10 月高点可 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming week is a critical juncture for the bond market, determining its direction for recovery or further decline [1] Group 1: Market Direction - If the bond market opts for a recovery, it is advisable to extend duration positions promptly [1] - In the event of continued market decline, a strategy of small, frequent purchases may be considered to capitalize on potential market tops [1] Group 2: Comparative Analysis - From a cost-performance perspective, the 30-year government bonds and 10-year policy bank bonds offer better value compared to 10-year government bonds [1] - The yield spread between 30-year government bonds and 10-year government bonds, as well as the spread between 10-year policy bank bonds and government bonds, have reached new highs over the past year [1] Group 3: Yield Curve Strategy - After a two-week adjustment period, the yield spread between 10-year and 1-year government bonds has rebounded from extremely low levels to the 50-60% percentile range [1] - Future strategies may include employing a barbell approach to take advantage of opportunities for curve flattening [1]