1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - On January 22, the asphalt futures market showed a significant increase. The spot market was driven but was weaker than the futures. Although the terminal demand was suppressed by large - scale cooling, the cost - side support remained strong. However, the weak terminal demand and the wide range of alternative raw materials would restrict the market's upside potential [1][2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 22, the closing price of the main BU2603 contract in the afternoon was 3,214 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan/ton or 2.92% from the previous day's settlement price. The position was 203,357 lots, up 15,919 lots, and the trading volume was 299,851 lots, up 151,311 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information were: Northeast 3,406 - 3,500 yuan/ton; Shandong 3,030 - 3,240 yuan/ton; South China 3,180 - 3,250 yuan/ton; East China 3,130 - 3,230 yuan/ton [1] - The asphalt spot prices in North China, Shandong, and South China increased, while those in other regions remained basically stable [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. Early long positions could be appropriately closed for profit. No strategies were proposed for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]

石油沥青日报 | 2026-01-22 降温抑制刚需，局部现货下跌 市场分析 1、1月21日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2603合约下午收盘价3157元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨14元/吨，涨幅 0.45%；持仓187438手，环比下降3111手，成交148540手，环比上涨29623手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3406—3500元/吨；山东，3000—3240元/吨；华南，3150—3250元/吨； 华东，3130—3230元/吨。 昨日华北、华南以及川渝地区沥青现货价格出现下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格基本持稳。随着南方地区大范围降 温，沥青刚性需求持续下滑，制约现货情绪。前来看，盘面在定价委油供应收紧预期后进入震荡阶段。在南美局 势升级、美国意图加强控制委内瑞拉资源的背景下，委内瑞拉原油对国内炼厂供应收紧的预期持续兑现，市场开 始关注替代原料的可获得性以及对成本的影响。目前来看，如果原本流向亚洲地区的委内瑞拉原油持续流向欧美， 在库存原料消耗后(预计能够用到3月份），未来国内炼厂需要从中东、加拿大、南美等地寻找替代重质原料，其中 可能包括俄罗斯与伊朗的折价资源，使得成本与产品收率的变化会更为 ...