沥青成本端支撑
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成本端支撑偏强,盘面大幅上涨
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-23 03:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - On January 22, the asphalt futures market showed a significant increase. The spot market was driven but was weaker than the futures. Although the terminal demand was suppressed by large - scale cooling, the cost - side support remained strong. However, the weak terminal demand and the wide range of alternative raw materials would restrict the market's upside potential [1][2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 22, the closing price of the main BU2603 contract in the afternoon was 3,214 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan/ton or 2.92% from the previous day's settlement price. The position was 203,357 lots, up 15,919 lots, and the trading volume was 299,851 lots, up 151,311 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information were: Northeast 3,406 - 3,500 yuan/ton; Shandong 3,030 - 3,240 yuan/ton; South China 3,180 - 3,250 yuan/ton; East China 3,130 - 3,230 yuan/ton [1] - The asphalt spot prices in North China, Shandong, and South China increased, while those in other regions remained basically stable [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. Early long positions could be appropriately closed for profit. No strategies were proposed for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]
石油沥青日报:局部现货小跌,成本端变数仍存-20260116
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-16 05:07
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2) Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market has limited contradictions, with the asphalt futures showing a slight decline and the spot price generally stable, except for small drops in North China and Shandong. The asphalt market has shifted to a volatile trend after pricing in the expectation of tightened Venezuelan oil supply. The expectation of tightened Venezuelan oil supply to domestic asphalt refineries is gradually being realized, and there is still support at the cost - end. However, the key lies in the increase in cost and the change in asphalt yield after refineries adjust raw material oil types, and continuous attention is needed due to the uncertainty of the Iranian situation [1]. - The trading strategy suggests being cautiously bullish on the single - side, buying the main BU contract on dips, and allowing early bottom - fishing long positions to take appropriate profit. For the inter - period strategy, it is recommended to buy the BU2303/2306 spread on dips (positive spread). There are no strategies for cross - varieties, spot - futures, and options [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 15, the closing price of the main BU2603 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3167 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 199,517 lots, a decrease of 3,810 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 159,746 lots, a decrease of 39,400 lots [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast: 3406 - 3500 yuan/ton; Shandong: 3030 - 3240 yuan/ton; South China: 3130 - 3250 yuan/ton; East China: 3180 - 3230 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - Single - side: Cautiously bullish, buy the main BU contract on dips, and allow early bottom - fishing long positions to take appropriate profit [2]. - Inter - period: Buy the BU2303/2306 spread on dips (positive spread) [2]. - Cross - varieties: None [2]. - Spot - futures: None [2]. - Options: None [2]. Charts - The report contains multiple charts showing various aspects of the asphalt market, including spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), futures index and contract closing prices, trading volume and open interest, production, consumption, and inventory levels [3].