石油沥青日报 | 2026-01-23 成本端支撑偏强，盘面大幅上涨 市场分析 1、1月22日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2603合约下午收盘价3214元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨92元/吨，涨幅 2.92%；持仓203357手，环比上升15919手，成交299851手，环比上涨151311手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3406—3500元/吨；山东，3030—3240元/吨；华南，3180—3250元/吨； 华东，3130—3230元/吨。 昨日BU盘面出现大幅上涨，现货端受到带动但表现弱于期货。其中，华北、山东以及华南地区沥青现货价格出现 上涨，其余地区沥青现货价格基本持稳。虽然终端需求受到大规模降温抑制，但成本端支撑依然偏强。目前来看， 在南美局势升级、美国意图加强控制委内瑞拉资源的背景下，委内瑞拉原油对国内炼厂供应收紧的预期持续兑现， 市场开始关注替代原料的可获得性以及对成本的影响。目前来看，如果原本流向亚洲地区的委内瑞拉原油持续流 向欧美，在库存原料消耗后(预计能够用到3月份），未来国内炼厂需要从中东、加拿大、南美等地寻找替代重质原 料，其中可能包括俄罗斯与伊朗的折价资源，使得成本与产 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2) Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market has limited contradictions, with the asphalt futures showing a slight decline and the spot price generally stable, except for small drops in North China and Shandong. The asphalt market has shifted to a volatile trend after pricing in the expectation of tightened Venezuelan oil supply. The expectation of tightened Venezuelan oil supply to domestic asphalt refineries is gradually being realized, and there is still support at the cost - end. However, the key lies in the increase in cost and the change in asphalt yield after refineries adjust raw material oil types, and continuous attention is needed due to the uncertainty of the Iranian situation [1]. - The trading strategy suggests being cautiously bullish on the single - side, buying the main BU contract on dips, and allowing early bottom - fishing long positions to take appropriate profit. For the inter - period strategy, it is recommended to buy the BU2303/2306 spread on dips (positive spread). There are no strategies for cross - varieties, spot - futures, and options [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 15, the closing price of the main BU2603 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3167 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 199,517 lots, a decrease of 3,810 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 159,746 lots, a decrease of 39,400 lots [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast: 3406 - 3500 yuan/ton; Shandong: 3030 - 3240 yuan/ton; South China: 3130 - 3250 yuan/ton; East China: 3180 - 3230 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - Single - side: Cautiously bullish, buy the main BU contract on dips, and allow early bottom - fishing long positions to take appropriate profit [2]. - Inter - period: Buy the BU2303/2306 spread on dips (positive spread) [2]. - Cross - varieties: None [2]. - Spot - futures: None [2]. - Options: None [2]. Charts - The report contains multiple charts showing various aspects of the asphalt market, including spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), futures index and contract closing prices, trading volume and open interest, production, consumption, and inventory levels [3].