Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The prices of L, PP, PVC, PX/PTA, ethylene glycol, methanol, urea, and caustic soda are expected to decline. The prices of these commodities will be affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [2][4]. Summary by Variety L - **Core View**: The price will experience a callback, and the industry can focus on inter - month or spot - futures reverse arbitrage opportunities [2]. - **Main Logic**: Spot prices have significantly declined, the basis has weakened, and the supply side may see a reduction in production due to raw material shortages. The parking ratio has increased to 11%. Geopolitical conflicts have raised the price center, but the short - term geopolitical premium is being reversed. The price range is estimated to be between 7400 - 7700 yuan/ton [2][9]. PP - **Core View**: The price will decline, and the industry can consider spot - futures or inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunities. The contract is expected to be relatively resistant to decline in the olefin sector [2]. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances have caused some MTO and PDH units to reduce their loads, and upstream maintenance efforts have increased significantly. The sharp rise in propane prices has compressed PDH profits to extremely low levels, providing strong cost support. The price range is expected to be between 7500 - 7800 yuan/ton [13]. PVC - **Core View**: The price will decline. The high inventory restricts the rebound space, and the market should be treated with a wait - and - see attitude [2]. - **Main Logic**: Calcium carbide prices continue to rise, and profits in Shandong have turned negative. The high - inventory pattern persists, but the shortage of raw material ethylene may lead to a reduction in the load of global ethylene - based PVC units. Attention should be paid to changes in export order volumes. The price range is estimated to be between 5000 - 5200 yuan/ton [17]. PX/PTA - **Core View**: The price will decline. With the possible alleviation of geopolitical conflicts, long positions should be closed for profit [4]. - **Main Logic**: The coordinated measures of G7 on crude oil strategic reserves and Trump's statement on the war have led to a decline in crude oil prices. TA has a relatively high valuation, and the processing fee is over 300 yuan/ton. The supply side has seen an increase in the load of some domestic units, while downstream polyester and terminal weaving industries are showing improvement. The cost - side PX fundamentals are expected to improve, and TA is in a state of continuous inventory reduction. The price range of TA05 is between 5780 - 6350 yuan/ton [4][19]. Ethylene Glycol - **Core View**: The price will decline. With the decline in oil - based costs, long positions should be closed for profit [4]. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of geopolitical conflicts has cooled down, and crude oil prices have declined again. The supply side has seen a reduction in the load of domestic and overseas units, while the demand side is gradually recovering. Although port inventories are high, the expected reduction in imports may relieve port pressure. The price range of EG05 is between 4100 - 4420 yuan/ton [4][22]. Methanol - **Core View**: The price will decline. Geopolitical conflicts dominate the market trend, and long positions should be closed for profit [4]. - **Main Logic**: Methanol has a relatively high valuation. The domestic methanol load has slightly decreased but remains at a high level, and overseas units are expected to reduce their loads. The import volume is expected to decline in February and March. The demand side is weakly stable, and the inventory reduction is slow. The price range of MA05 is between 2450 - 2600 yuan/ton [4][25]. Urea - **Core View**: The price will decline. The market is waiting for export policy guidance, with the expected decline in international oil and gas prices and the spring fertilizer demand [4]. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts have little impact on domestic urea prices. Urea has a relatively high valuation, with high profits and high production. The demand side has a weak current situation but a strong expectation, and social inventories are at a high level. The price range of UR05 is between 1800 - 1850 yuan/ton [4][29]. Caustic Soda - **Core View**: The price will decline. The high inventory restricts the rebound space [2]. - **Main Logic**: The spot fundamentals are still weak, and the market is reversing the geopolitical premium. The factory inventory is at the highest level in the same period, and the domestic operating rate has not changed much. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East may lead to a reduction in the load of overseas units. Attention should be paid to the progress of spring maintenance and changes in export order volumes. The price range is between 2200 - 2350 yuan/ton [2][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - L: Expected to open lower. Spot prices have risen sharply, and the basis has reached a record high. With oil prices rising and then falling, long positions should set trailing stops, and the industry can focus on reverse cash-and-carry opportunities. There are potential supply disruptions due to geopolitical factors and changes in supply and demand [1][8]. - PP: Expected to open lower. Oil prices are rising and then falling, and the basis has reached a record high. The industry can focus on reverse cash-and-carry or inter - month spread opportunities. Geopolitical disturbances may cause raw material shortages in marginal MTO and PDH devices, increasing upstream maintenance efforts. The cost side has strong support [1][11]. - PVC: Expected to open lower. Calcium carbide prices have stopped falling and rebounded, but high inventories limit the upside. There is a potential reduction in the load of global ethylene - based PVC due to raw material ethylene shortages. Attention should be paid to changes in export orders [1][15]. - PX/PTA: Expected to experience a callback. Trump's statement led to a significant decline in overnight crude oil prices, and the traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz is gradually recovering. TA has a relatively high valuation, and the supply side has seen some changes in domestic device operations. The downstream polyester industry is improving, and the cost side of PX is positive. The supply - demand balance is tight in April [3]. - Ethylene Glycol (EG): Expected to experience a callback. Overnight crude oil prices have fallen significantly. The supply side has been affected by geopolitical military conflicts, with domestic device loads decreasing and overseas device maintenance increasing. The demand side is warming up, and the inventory pressure is expected to ease in March - April [3]. - Methanol: Expected to experience a callback. The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran is expected to ease, and overnight crude oil prices have opened significantly lower. Methanol has a relatively high valuation. The supply side has seen a slight decline in domestic methanol loads, and overseas devices are expected to reduce their loads. The demand side is weak and stable, and the inventory in ports is relatively high [3]. - Urea: Expected to experience a callback. The geopolitical conflict has eased. Although there are arbitrage opportunities at home and abroad, urea exports are difficult to liberalize before the end of the domestic spring plowing. Urea has a relatively high valuation, and the supply side has high production, while the demand side has a weak current situation but strong expectations. The inventory is at a high level, and the price is restricted by policies [3]. - Caustic Soda: Expected to open lower. The current in - plant inventory is at the highest level in the same period, and the domestic operation rate has not changed much. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has increased the expectation of load reduction in overseas devices. Attention should be paid to the progress of spring maintenance and changes in export orders [1][33]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs L - **Market Data**: L05 closed at 7944 yuan/ton, up 3.3% from the previous day. The L05 basis was 1076 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was 188 yuan/ton. The LL华北 price increased by 18.7% to 9020 yuan/ton [6][7]. - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices have risen sharply, and the basis has reached a record high. Oil prices are rising and then falling. In 2025, China imported 1.67 million tons of LL from 5 Persian Gulf countries (accounting for 35%), and the short - term blockage of the Strait of Hormuz may lead to a reduction in imports. The upstream maintenance efforts have increased, and the downstream sentiment has improved [8]. PP - **Market Data**: PP05 closed at 8034 yuan/ton, up 3.0% from the previous day. The PP05 basis was 1579 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was 349 yuan/ton. The PDH profit has increased significantly [9][10]. - **Basic Logic**: Oil prices are rising and then falling, and the basis has reached a record high. Geopolitical disturbances may cause raw material shortages in marginal MTO and PDH devices, increasing upstream maintenance efforts. The propane price increase has compressed PDH profits, and the cost side has strong support [11]. PVC - **Market Data**: V05 closed at 5466 yuan/ton, up 3.6% from the previous day. The V05 basis was 234 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 111 yuan/ton. The price of calcium carbide has increased by 10.7% [13][14]. - **Basic Logic**: Calcium carbide prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and the Shandong double - ton profit has turned positive. High inventories limit the upside. There is a potential reduction in the load of global ethylene - based PVC due to raw material ethylene shortages. Attention should be paid to changes in export orders [15]. PX/PTA - **Market Data**: TA05 closed at 6070 yuan/ton. The PTA spot processing fee was 317.8 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 200 yuan/ton. The polyester load has increased, and the PTA inventory is at a relatively low level [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and the cost side has driven the strong rise of aromatic hydrocarbon - related products. The supply side has seen some changes in domestic device operations, and the downstream demand is seasonally warming up. The PX fundamentals are improving, and the supply - demand balance is tight in April [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions. The price range of TA05 is [6320 - 6928] [18]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Data**: EG05 closed at 4377 yuan/ton. The EG05 basis was - 112 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was 60 yuan/ton. The port inventory is relatively high, but it is expected to decrease [19]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation of ethylene glycol has been repaired. The supply side has been affected by geopolitical military conflicts, with domestic device loads decreasing and overseas device maintenance increasing. The demand side is warming up, and the inventory pressure is expected to ease in March - April [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions. The price range of EG05 is [4400 - 4705] [21]. Methanol - **Market Data**: The methanol主力 is at a high level in the past year. The comprehensive profit is - 156.8 yuan/ton, and the East China basis is - 84 yuan/ton. The spot prices in the European and American methanol markets have risen [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic methanol device load has decreased but is still at a high level in the same period. Overseas devices are expected to reduce their loads. The demand side is weak and stable, and the port inventory is at a high level in the historical same period. The short - term geopolitical conflict intensity affects the market trend [23][24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions. The price range of MA05 is [2520 - 2800] [25]. Urea - **Market Data**: UR05 closed at 1847 yuan/ton. The Shandong small - particle urea basis was - 13 yuan/ton, and the UR5 - 9 spread was 39 yuan/ton. The production capacity utilization rate is high, and the inventory is increasing [26]. - **Basic Logic**: Urea has a relatively high absolute valuation. The demand side has a weak current situation but strong expectations. The social inventory is increasing. Under the background of "export quota" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", the price has an upper and lower limit. The market has expectations for spring fertilization and potential export speculation [27][28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions and buy out - of - the - money put options. The price range of UR05 is [1830 - 1900] [29]. Caustic Soda - **Market Data**: SH05 closed at 2442 yuan/ton. The SH05 basis was - 222 yuan/ton, and the SH59 spread was - 23 yuan/ton. The prices of caustic soda in different regions have increased to varying degrees [31][32]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot market fundamentals are still weak, and the futures price is at a premium. The current in - plant inventory is at the highest level in the same period, and the domestic operation rate has not changed much. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has increased the expectation of load reduction in overseas devices. Attention should be paid to the progress of spring maintenance and changes in export orders [33].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The domestic LPG market is expected to continue its narrow - range oscillation. International LPG prices are weak, and an increase in warehouse receipts suppresses the market. Although domestic chemical demand is rising, weak combustion demand restricts price increases [1]. 3. Key Points by Relevant Information Price Changes - **Daily Changes (July 30)**: There was no change in South China and East China LPG prices, Shandong LPG decreased by 20 yuan, propane CFR South China dropped by 5 dollars, propane CIF Japan rose by 28 dollars, MB propane spot increased by 2 dollars, CP forecast contract price decreased by 2 dollars, Shandong ether - after carbon four rose by 100 yuan, Shandong alkylated oil increased by 50 yuan, paper import profit rose by 28 dollars, and the main basis weakened by 24 yuan [1]. - **PG Market**: The PG market oscillated. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4413 yuan/ton. The basis weakened to 370 (-63). The inter - month reverse spread continued to strengthen. Warehouse receipt registrations reached 9804 lots (+1000), with 1000 lots added by Qingdao Yunda [1]. - **Regional Spreads**: PG - CP reached 43 (+18), FEI - MB was 155 (-6), FEI - CP was 4.5 (+4.5), and FEI - MOPJ changed little at -47.5 (-3.75). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed, and the FEI propane discount continued to decline [1]. Market Conditions - **Supply and Demand**: The arrival volume decreased significantly. In South China, typhoons delayed vessel arrivals, leading to a decline in port inventories and a slight increase in factory inventories. The commodity volume decreased by 0.53%. Chemical demand was strong, with PDH operating rates rising significantly to 73.13% (+2.01 pct), and MTBE and alkylation operating rates also increasing [1]. - **Production Profits**: PDH profits improved, while MTBE export profits declined. FEI and CP - based PP production profits oscillated, with CP having a lower production cost than FEI [1]. Weekly Outlook - The domestic LPG market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations. Chemical demand is strong, but weak combustion demand will continue to suppress price increases [1].