2025 年 10 月 12 日 石脑油：裂解装置 LPG 替代极限 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 报告导读： 9 月 30 日，沙特阿美公布 10 月 CP 价格，丙烷跌 25 美元/吨至 495 美元/吨，丁烷跌 15 至 475 美元 /吨；折合到岸成本约为丙烷 4259 元/吨左右，丁烷 4196 元/吨左右。这一价格和前期市场预期的 520- 530 美元/吨的预期相比有了大幅度下跌，并且 CP 的下跌带来了整体亚洲丙烷市场的大幅回落。 在本次价格快速下跌后，亚洲石化工厂采购 LPG 意愿快速抬升，通过简单计算，我们可以得到亚洲地 区 LPG 对石脑油替代极限约为 70-80 万吨/月。而在之前，亚洲石脑油长期处于高位 E/W 价差已经带来了 历史高位的东西方套利物流，同时下游乙烯裂解在深度亏损以及季节性检修的影响下整体需求弱于预期， 若 LPG 替代量继续增加（减少石脑油需求量），则 11 月石脑油亚洲供需缺口可能被短期抹平，关注石脑 油在 LPG 大量替代 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 C3产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 日期：2025年10月12日 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 总结 01 LPG部分 02 丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 平衡表 供应 需求 下游库存 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 本周LPG观点：短期偏弱运行 | 供应 | 国产方面，液化气总商品量54.3万吨，较上周环比增加0.6%；其中，民用气商品量21.8万吨（+1.0%），醚后商品量17.9万吨（+/-0.0%）；当 前，国内民用气商品量处于偏低水平，而醚后碳四商品量维持高位水平。进口方面，CP意外大幅下跌出台，外盘节中大幅走弱，进口成本明显 | | --- | --- | | | 下行。本周，隆众口径中国国际船到港量较上周环比减少6.7万吨，以华东为主，国庆假期港口流转率下降，目前龙口、潮州及东莞锚 ...

【原油】 十一假期前后国际油价总体回落,本周处于OPEC+最终未如预期般大幅增产后的反弹修复期,外盘原油日内延续 反弹，SC11合约节后首日补跌1.98%。EIA报告显示上周美国原油库存超预期增加371.5万桶，但近四周成品油表 需同比增1.7%相对强劲对油价构成支撑。尽管俄乌地缘犹动仍存，但供需宽松压力仍是后续市场的交易主题, 我们此前提出的SC高位空单与虚值看涨期权相结合的策略择机阶段性止盈。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 国庆假期期间外盘原油系品种整体表现偏弱,燃料油市场今日开盘亦跟随成本端跳空低开。其中高硫燃料油在 地缘风险的驱动下走势相对抗跌，俄罗斯炼厂频繁遭受无人机袭击，加之其炼厂季节性检修来临，或将共同制 约高硫供应。后续来看，燃料油整体仍将跟随原油运行,其中高硫将持续受到地缘端因素犹动，但中期在 OPEC+的持续增产下供应压力或逐步显现。低硫方面海外供应充足,西方套利货物持续流入,尼日利亚升格特炜 厂RFCC装置仍未恢复,低硫燃料油持续招标,船用燃料加注需求亦低迷,供需宽松压力难改。 【沥青】 最新库存显示厂库小幅累库,社会库下滑明显,整体商业库存较节前下降。全国10月排产计划同比增加35万 吨、环 ...

Report Overview - The report is titled "Supply Abundant, Limited Imagination Space for Peak-season Demand - Outlook for LPG in the Fourth Quarter" and is published by Orient Securities Derivatives Research Institute on September 30, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Report's Core View - In the fourth quarter, although it is the traditional combustion peak season, the supply and demand of domestic LPG and overseas propane are expected to remain relatively loose. With limited contradictions, there is little chance of a trending market. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of shorting on the domestic market when prices are high and to be bearish on the overseas FEI [86] Q3 Market Review External Market - In Q3, the external market price was weak first and then strong. The change in trade flow and cargo flow bottlenecks pushed the relative valuation of the Far East Inbound Price (FEI) to strengthen significantly in August. The trading opportunities in Q3 were mostly short - term band trading opportunities caused by valuation deviations and short - term contradictions on the spot side [2][8] - In July, the external market was weak due to weak fundamentals and poor spot sentiment. Propane demand was dragged down by the year - on - year weakness in the cracking end, and the international supply surplus continued. In August, the relative valuation of FEI strengthened, mainly supported by the increase in transportation costs due to trade flow changes and cargo flow bottlenecks. In September, the contradiction weakened [8] Domestic Market - In Q3, the domestic market contradictions were stronger than those in the external market. Under the weak spot expectation, the number of warehouse receipts reached a record high. In July, the domestic market fell smoothly under the pressure of weak fundamentals in the off - season. The spot price was mainly lowered, and the number of PG registered warehouse receipts reached a record high, putting obvious pressure on the market [9][15] LPG Fundamental Outlook for the Fourth Quarter Supply Side United States - The net production of C3 in the United States has remained at a stable high level in Q3, and the commissioning of the Frac XVI fractionation unit in Q4 is expected to further increase the regional production. The current C3 inventory is slightly higher than that of the same period last year, at a seasonally neutral to high level [19] - The export volume of the United States has been basically stable at about 5.8 million tons per month this year. Although the export capacity of the docks has increased, the export volume is affected by multiple factors such as the actual change in Northeast Asian demand, the progress of China - US tariff games, and the passage of the Panama Canal [25] - The factors affecting the passage of the Panama Canal include drought, passage rules, and economy. In Q4, the focus is on the potential impact of USTR and possible hurricanes in the US Gulf on capacity allocation and loading [26][38] - The congestion of the Panama Canal in August temporarily pushed up the FEI - MB spread. The impact of USTR on the LPG market is expected to be limited, as the proportion of Chinese - operated ships is relatively low, and the market hype about USTR is gradually subsiding [31][42] Middle East - The CP price was weak in Q3. In Q4, the export increment in the Middle East is expected to be limited. The potential increment comes from OPEC+ production increase, but the export volume usually decreases seasonally in Q4 due to strong local demand in winter and seasonal maintenance of production facilities [50] Demand Side Combustion Demand - India's LPG import volume increased by 7.4% year - on - year to 17 million tons from January to September this year. The strong demand is supported by factors such as the growth of domestic terminal consumption, the commissioning of infrastructure projects, and the commissioning of new PDH devices. The annual import growth rate is expected to be about 6% [51][58] Chemical Demand - The LPG import volume of domestic flexible cracking terminals has decreased significantly this year due to China - US tariffs. In Q3, LPG had certain feedstock economic advantages over naphtha, but the overall LPG consumption in Far East cracking was weaker than last year. In Q4, it is difficult for FEI - MOPJ to provide strong economic incentives for LPG cracking feedstock demand [66] - The PDH demand may have reached a phased peak in Q3. In Q4, the operating rate is expected to be difficult to increase, and the feedstock demand is unlikely to have an optimistic performance, especially considering the expiration of the current China - US tariff plan in November [72] China - The domestic refinery gas commodity volume is abundant. In Q4, the external release volume is expected to further increase. Considering the high inventory in East China, the spot price in East China is expected to continue to be under pressure, and the lowest deliverable product of domestic civil LPG in October is still likely to be anchored in the East China region [85]

南华期货2025年LPG四季度展望 ——供应有韧性，需求待考验 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428） 沈玮玮（期货从业证书：F03140197 ） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章、核心观点 观点总结 三季度国内PG价格呈现先抑后扬的形态，受到疲软的基本面及巨量仓单的影响。展望四季度，我们认为海内 外供应依然具有韧性，而需求端的考验相对更大。在四季度我们认为需要重点关注以下几个方面： 1）供应端：美国在高产量高库存下或仍能维持较高的出口水平，冬季可能的极端天气及中美贸易的走向对其 价格及贸易流向产生影响；中东端目前看出口总量相对稳定，OPEC+政策及实际的增产情况将对未来出口产 生影响，考虑到四季度也是其相对的消费旺季，更倾向于持稳或小幅增量；国内也倾向于维持较高的产量水 平，风险在于利润带来的扰动。 2）需求端：印度传统的消费旺季仍能维持其较高的进口水平，但增量预期有限；日本更多的是季节性带来的 需求增量；韩国的扰动在PN价差及相对的裂解利润带来的裂解需求波动；国内化工需求有见顶回落的预期， 燃烧需求难言超季节性的需求。 价格区间 综合考虑内外的供需情况，我们认为四季度价格区 ...

地缘冲突再升温，成本带动LPG走强 LPG周报 2025年9月28日 姓名：肖海明 从业资格号：F3075626 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0018001 联系电话： 0531-81678601 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 期货交易咨询： 丙烷CP预期均价为544美元/吨，较上期跌4美元/吨，环比下跌0.73%；丁烷CP预期均价为524美元 /吨，较上期跌4美元/吨，环比降幅 0.76%；丙烷CFR华南均价587美元/吨，较上期跌7美元/吨，环比跌1.18%；丁烷CFR华南均价567美元/吨，较上期跌7美元/吨，环比跌 1.22%。 周内有生产企业如期开工，国内液化气供应量小幅增长。本期液化气商品量53.92万吨，较上期增加0.07万吨，增幅0.13%。国 内液化气市场需求预期提升。国庆假期将至，节前下游仍有补货需求，且节日将提振燃烧消费。 化工领域中，烯烃与烷烃深加工方面均有 装置计划开工，包括一套烷基化装置和三套PDH装置，醚后碳四、丙烷需求均有望增长。 逻辑与观点 PART 01 LPG行情回顾 请务 ...

原油 女女女 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月25日 | | | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | T | | | 了 | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 777 | 李海群 | | T | F03107558 Z0021515 | | 大 | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | 010-58747784 | 【原油】隔夜国际油价大幅反弹,SC11合约日内涨1.72%。继6月伊以冲突之后，十一前后或再次迎来地缘博弈 的关键窗口期,具体在俄乌、伊核两条主线均有反应。而在无直接军事冲突的前提下,伊核制裁恢复、委内出 口受限对两国的实际出口总量难有持续性影响,更多体现在短期犹动及出口流向的变化;而东欧紧张局势若进 一步发酵,俄罗斯原油及成品油出口或因能源基础设施的受损而进一步减量,油价短期上行风险仍存,原油系 期货保值空单应与看涨期权结合操作。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】燃料油市场延续上涨，一方面受地缘因素推动原油走强，成本端带动整体原油系品种 情。另一方面就自身供需而言,她缘局势出现升级迹象,乌克兰袭击俄罗斯能源设 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including finance, commodities, and shipping, providing insights into market trends, news events, and investment suggestions for different assets [1][2][3][4][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US new home sales in August reached an annualized 800,000 units, significantly above expectations. The US and EU finalized a 15% tariff agreement, leading to a gold price correction of over 1% and a strong rise in the US dollar index [12][13] - Short - term gold prices face a correction risk due to profit - taking, and investors are advised to reduce positions before the holiday [14] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Intel is seeking investment and cooperation from Apple, and the US has officially lowered tariffs on EU cars. Fed official Daly's remarks indicate uncertainty in future interest rate cuts [15][16][17] - While there may be short - term disturbances due to valuation concerns, an overall bullish approach is recommended [18] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - South Korea's president met with the US Treasury Secretary, and the UK central bank has internal policy differences. The US has reduced tariffs on EU cars to 15%, and the US dollar is expected to trade in a short - term range [20][21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Eight departments jointly issued a document to promote digital consumption, and Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure. The STAR Market has strengthened, driving the broader market up. The current market is rising on low volume, and investors are advised to take partial profits [22][23][24] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation and a 401.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The bond market has declined due to tightened liquidity and rising stock markets. A strategy of holding a steepening curve is recommended [25][26][28] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The market anticipates that the USDA's weekly export sales report will show a net increase of 60 - 160 tons in US soybean exports. China is rumored to continue purchasing Argentine soybeans, and ANEC has lowered Brazil's September soybean export forecast [29] - The bearish impact of Argentina's export tax exemption may be fully reflected in the price, and the price is expected to trade in a range. Continued attention should be paid to policy changes [29] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia's July palm oil exports decreased, and production and inventory increased. The oil market rebounded slightly, but the short - term rebound space is limited. Investors are advised to wait and see or take small long positions [30][31] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Korea has imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese and Japanese carbon and alloy steel hot - rolled coils. Global crude steel production in August increased slightly year - on - year. Steel prices have rebounded, but the upward space is restricted by fundamentals. A range - bound approach is recommended before the holiday, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand [32][33][35] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The corn starch production rate has increased, and inventory has decreased. The current inventory pressure is manageable, and the price difference between rice and flour may be undervalued. Buying to widen the spread may have a safety margin [36][37] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn inventory at the four northern ports has decreased. The price of the 11 - contract has rebounded, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. The 11 - contract is expected to decline more than the 01 - contract after the holiday [37][38] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal at northern ports has remained stable. After the pre - holiday restocking, the coal price is expected to trade in a range around the long - term agreement price [39] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Jujubes) - Some jujubes in Xinjiang are starting to wrinkle, and there are still some green fruits. The futures price is expected to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to the development of jujubes in the production area and the purchasing situation in the sales area [40][41] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - SNIM plans to increase iron ore production by 2031 and has discovered new resources. The terminal finished product inventory has some pressure, but the raw material side is strong. The iron ore price is expected to be well - supported, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand and inventory [43] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Orient Hope is conducting maintenance on its polysilicon production line. The polysilicon price is expected to be stable in October. The short - term futures price is expected to trade in a wide range between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [44][48] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - China's August import and export data of primary polysiloxane showed mixed trends. The price of industrial silicon is expected to trade between 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, but chasing the price up should be done with caution [49][50] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The global copper market had a supply surplus of 101,000 tons from January to July. Grasberg copper mine's accident will lead to a significant production loss, and the copper price is expected to rise in the short term. A short - term long strategy is recommended [51][54][55] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Trump administration is seeking to acquire up to 10% of Lithium Americas. The short - term price may be supported by pre - holiday restocking, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. A short - term cautious approach and a medium - term short - selling strategy are recommended [56][57] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia has suspended 190 mining enterprises, including 39 nickel mines. The nickel price lacks upward momentum, but it has long - term investment value. A positive spread arbitrage opportunity is recommended [58][59] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead market is in a deep contango. The domestic lead market is expected to trade in a bullish range. A strategy of buying on dips and a positive spread arbitrage strategy are recommended [60][61] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc market has a high cash concentration, and the domestic zinc market is under pressure from the exchange rate. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading, and a positive spread arbitrage strategy is recommended [61][62] 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The spot price in East China has declined. The price is expected to trade in a low - level range in the short term [63][66][67] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US EIA crude oil inventory decreased, and a Russian refinery was attacked. The oil price is expected to be affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short term [68][69][70] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The terminal demand for PX has improved structurally, but the PX market is expected to trade in a weak range in the short term [71][73][74] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA market has seen a partial increase in sales, but the short - term outlook is weak. The price is expected to trade in a weak range [75][76][77] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - Urea inventory has increased. The supply pressure is rising, and the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the export situation and the price range of the 2601 contract [78][79] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has declined locally. The market is expected to be stable, and the downward space of the futures price is limited [80][81][82] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market price is stable. The market is expected to trade in a weak range due to poor fundamentals [83][84][85] 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC market price is oscillating in a narrow range. The fundamentals are weak, but the low price limits the downward space. Attention should be paid to domestic policy support [86] 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip factory's export price has increased slightly. The demand may be over - drawn in the short term, and attention should be paid to production cuts and new capacity [90][91] 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market price is stable. A strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances [92][93] 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass market price in Shandong is stable. The futures price has risen due to policy expectations, but the fundamental pressure may limit the upward space. A long - glass 2601 and short - soda ash 2601 arbitrage strategy is recommended [94] 3.2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The China - Europe Railway Express has resumed operation. The container freight rate futures market is expected to be volatile, and a wait - and - see or short - selling strategy for the October contract is recommended [95][96]

Report Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Fuel oil: Not clearly defined in a comparable way [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short-term trend and poor trading opportunities, suggesting a wait-and-see approach) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short-term trend and poor trading opportunities, suggesting a wait-and-see approach) [1] Core Views - The medium-term bearish trend in the crude oil market continues, with expected price drops for Brent and SC crude. However, geopolitical risks around the Iran nuclear negotiation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict may still intensify around the National Day holiday, so the strategy of combining high-level short positions with call options can be maintained [1]. - Fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil will mainly follow the weakening cost side due to the unchanged medium-term bearish trend in crude oil. Low-sulfur fuel oil faces supply pressure, while high-sulfur fuel oil may be relatively stronger and is susceptible to geopolitical news [2]. - The asphalt market maintains a tight supply-demand balance, with the BU contract having support below due to factors such as increased pre-holiday demand in the north, expected production increases, and inventory declines [2]. - The LPG market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, with marginal improvements in supply and demand and expected better import costs [3]. Summary by Industry Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the SC11 contract rising 1.94% during the day. Iraqi Kurdish oil exports remain suspended, and there are discussions about a possible Russian diesel export ban. Negotiations between three European countries and Iran to avoid UN sanctions on September 27 have no clear progress [1]. - The medium-term bearish trend continues, with the expected average price of Brent crude dropping from $68 per barrel in Q3 to $63 per barrel, and the SC average price falling from 500 yuan per barrel to around 465 yuan per barrel [1]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical factors affect supply expectations, causing a rebound in crude oil-related products. However, the unilateral trend of fuel oil will follow the weakening cost side [2]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil faces low加注 demand, increased domestic quotas, and overseas refinery RFCC accidents, intensifying supply pressure. High-sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to be loose in the medium term, but Russian refinery attacks may support supply expectations and make it relatively stronger [2]. Asphalt - The latest weekly shipment volume increased significantly compared to the previous period. The north has pre-holiday construction demand, while the south is affected by typhoon weather. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery rhythm [2]. - The initial production plans of refineries in October show a significant year-on-year increase but limited month-on-month growth. Factory inventories remain stable, and social inventories decreased by 57,000 tons, with the overall inventory level decreasing [2]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Crude oil rebounded, and LPG fluctuated. Refinery self-use of LPG increased, squeezing external supply, leading to a decline in commercial volume compared to last week [3]. - Typhoon weather in the South China region affects imports, while the import volume in East China increased but remains at a low level. Combustion demand is stable, and overall consumption increased slightly [3].

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