1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In April, CP prices were significantly raised, and the landed cost remained high. The increase in CP official prices was in line with expectations. The high landed cost of LPG supported the domestic market. The market interpreted the recent remarks from the Iranian and US presidents as a signal of easing, leading to a decline in emotional premium and potentially driving an overall correction in the energy sector. However, the situation is still unclear and requires continuous monitoring [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 30th, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 6300 - 6400; Northeast market, 5900 - 6250; North China market, 6350 - 6620; East China market, 6800 - 7400; Yangtze River market, 6760 - 6960; Northwest market, 5950 - 6400; South China market, 7200 - 7480 [1] - In the second half of April 2026, the landed price of frozen cargo in East China was 1111 US dollars/ton for propane, up 41 US dollars/ton, and 1161 US dollars/ton for butane, up 91 US dollars/ton. In RMB, propane was 8428 yuan/ton, up 274 yuan/ton, and butane was 8808 yuan/ton, up 654 yuan/ton. The same price increase occurred in South China [1] - Saudi Aramco announced the April CP. Propane was 750 US dollars/ton, up 205 US dollars/ton from the previous month, and butane was 800 US dollars/ton, up 260 US dollars/ton from the previous month. Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the export of Middle - East LPG was interrupted, and the international market tightened significantly. The butane increase was more prominent because Middle - East LPG had a relatively high butane proportion while the US increment was mainly propane [1] Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, there will be sharp fluctuations. It is advisable to wait and see for the time being. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [2] Figures - The figures include the spot prices of civil LPG and ether - post carbon four in different regions, as well as the closing prices, month - to - month differences, and trading volume and open interest of PG futures contracts in different periods [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is "Bullish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current LPG market is dominated by geopolitical conflicts, and it is difficult to make judgments without considering the geopolitical situation. The development of the geopolitical situation will determine whether the Strait of Hormuz will be open for passage. As of March 31, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and there is a possibility of further escalation of the conflict, which may drive LPG prices higher. The overall strategy is to go long at low prices. It is expected that the price of the domestic PG main contract will test the previous high again, with a reference target price of 7,400 yuan, and the reference target price for the overseas FEI main continuous contract is 1,000 US dollars. If the military conflict has a clear outcome, the Strait of Hormuz may open, leading to a price correction. However, even if the strait is解封, it will take time for the reduced associated LPG supply to return to the pre - conflict level, and the overall supply will still be tight year - on - year, making it difficult for the price center to return to the beginning - of - year level. In the medium term, if the geopolitical disturbances subside and the Middle East supply recovers well, the LPG price in the second quarter may be the annual high. In the second half of the year, as the US terminal export capacity expands and there is a possibility of combustion demand being replaced by other energy sources, the supply - demand margin will widen significantly compared to the second quarter under geopolitical conflicts [3][4][60] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2026 Q1 Liquefied Petroleum Gas Market Review - In Q1 2026, the LPG market was characterized by "unexpected" events. Geopolitical contradictions in the Middle East led to the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz, causing the prices of energy and chemical products to rise and fluctuate sharply. From January to February, the market focused on the contradiction between the restocking demand of PDH plants in China under low - profit and low - inventory conditions and the sufficient shipments from the US and the Middle East. The prices of domestic and overseas markets fluctuated widely within a range. In March, the geopolitical conflict escalated, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted the global LPG trade structure, turning the market from oversupply to significant undersupply. The domestic PG contract followed the upward trend of energy and chemical products in March, but the market start was delayed. As the blockade continued, the domestic PG contract saw a supplementary increase [13][14] 3.2 Geopolitical Conflicts Reshape the H1 2026 Supply Pattern 3.2.1 US Terminal Constraints on Export Growth and Difficult Inventory Reduction - US LPG supply increased by 7.1% year - on - year from January to February, and the growth rate of oil and gas field LPG was 7.5%. The STEO report in March was too conservative in its production forecast. With the increase in crude oil prices in March, it is expected to stimulate more crude oil production and increase NGLs output. The weekly production of propane and propylene in the US reached a high of 2.89 million barrels per day in early March, a 3% increase from February. The overall US LPG supply is in line with the initial expectations, with an estimated annual production growth rate of 4.3% in 2026, slightly down 0.2%. The domestic demand in the US is normal. Due to the increase in supply and stable demand, the US propane inventory is difficult to reduce and may enter a stockpiling channel, with the absolute level 70% higher than the same period last year. The export in Q1 was normal, but the current terminal export capacity is insufficient, and the next terminal capacity expansion is not expected until June. It is estimated that the propane inventory will reach 100 million barrels in the middle of the year [21][22] 3.2.2 Uncertainty in Middle East Q2 Exports - As of March 22, 2026, the total LPG exports from the Middle East were 8.85 million tons, and the Q1 exports are expected to be around 9 million tons, a 20% year - on - year decrease. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has a huge impact on Middle East LPG exports, and it is difficult to bypass the strait. The subsequent export volume in the second quarter depends on the resumption of passage in the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, major oil - producing countries in the Middle East have reduced their crude oil production due to the inability to export. The total crude oil production reduction of four major Middle East oil - producing countries may reach up to 6.7 million barrels per day, accounting for nearly 7% of the global crude oil production. The LPG production of Qatar's gas fields is expected to be damaged by 13%, with a monthly production loss of about 100,000 tons. When the strait is blocked, the monthly export volume of the Middle East may be 550,000 - 730,000 tons. After the strait is解封 and before the crude oil production recovers, the estimated monthly export volume is about 3.6 million tons [33][34][35] 3.3 Q2 Demand Under Pressure, Performance Depends on Supply Recovery 3.3.1 Impact on Asian Demand Under Continuous Strait Blockade - Under the continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Middle East LPG supply is cut off. Asian demand is significantly affected, mainly in India's combustion demand and China's chemical demand. India is the most affected country, with about 90% of its LPG imports from the Middle East and used for combustion. China imports about 50% of its LPG from the Middle East for chemical use. India's LPG arrivals have declined since March 15, and China's imports are expected to be affected in April. If the blockade persists, there is a possibility of permanent substitution of combustion demand by other energy sources and demand loss due to economic impact [38][39] 3.3.2 Good Demand Performance Excluding Geopolitical Impact - Excluding March, which was significantly affected by geopolitical events, the import volume of Asian countries in January and February showed stable growth, with a 3.4% year - on - year increase in the total imports of China, Japan, South Korea, and India. India's imports in January and February were in line with expectations, but were significantly affected in March. Japan and South Korea's imports increased by about 9% year - on - year in January and February but declined in March. China's imports were weak in January and February due to low PDH plant profits and low开工 rates. The PDH开工 rate is expected to drop to 50% in April, further reducing propane demand [45][46] 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance Summary 3.4.1 Significant Shortage Under Continuous Blockade - Under the continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Middle East supply drops to about 650,000 tons per month, far lower than the monthly average of 4 million tons in 2025. Even with a 150,000 - ton - per - month increase in US exports in the first half of the year, the supply gap cannot be filled. To achieve supply - demand balance, demand destruction through high prices is necessary. India's minimum necessary import volume and available inventory days for LPG will determine the market's actual spot liquidity [57] 3.4.2 Market Balance in the Transition Phase After Strait Reopening - In the transition phase after the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, assuming the crude oil production reduction of major oil - producing countries remains at 6.7 million barrels per day, the Middle East supply will improve significantly to 3.6 million tons per month. Asian combustion demand can be fully met, and the balance mainly depends on the marginal adjustment of chemical demand. With the expected 50% PDH开工 rate in April, the reduction in propane demand is about 500,000 tons per month, which offsets the LPG supply loss in the Middle East. Coupled with the 150,000 - ton - per - month increase in US supply, there is room for a 5% increase in the PDH开工 rate or for major combustion - demand countries like India to replenish their safety inventories. However, if the geopolitical conflict intensifies and causes long - term damage to oil and gas facilities, the LPG supply loss in the Middle East needs to be further adjusted. It will take at least 1 - 2 weeks for the main Middle East supply to return to the market after the strait is reopened, and this period may be the most chaotic [58] 3.5 Summary and Outlook - In terms of supply, the US maintains a high - level export, but the terminal capacity bottleneck restricts further export growth, leading to inventory accumulation. Middle East supply is limited under the current strait blockade, and the actual supply level in the second quarter is highly uncertain. On the demand side, the current undersupplied market is testing India's minimum necessary LPG import volume for combustion and inventory levels, and China's PDH chemical demand is under pressure, with the开工 rate expected to drop to about 50% in April. The LPG price is expected to rise further if the conflict escalates, with the domestic PG main contract price testing the previous high of 7,400 yuan and the overseas FEI main continuous contract price reaching 1,000 US dollars. After the conflict is resolved and the strait is reopened, the price may correct, but the supply will remain tight year - on - year, and the price center may not return to the beginning - of - year level. In the medium term, if geopolitical disturbances subside, the second - quarter LPG price may be the annual high, and the supply - demand margin will widen in the second half of the year [59][60]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents the latest data on LPG prices, spreads, inventory, and upstream - downstream operating rates, showing the current market situation of the LPG industry [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG Prices and Spreads - Futures prices of LPG contracts (PG2605, PG2606, PG2607) decreased on March 30 compared to March 27, with PG2605 down 2.26% to 6606, PG2606 down 1.79% to 6436, and PG2607 down 1.55% to 6225 [2]. - The spreads between different contracts (PG05 - 06, PG05 - 07) also decreased, with PG05 - 06 down 17.48% and PG05 - 07 down 12.61% [2]. - The spot price of South China civil gas increased by 3.14% to 7220, and the deliverable spot price increased by 5.76% to 6430 [2]. - The deliverable spot basis decreased by 74.08% to - 176, while the South China spot basis increased by 154.77% to 614 [2]. - LPG outer - market prices showed an upward trend. FEI swap M1 contract rose 2.43% to 929, FEI swap M2 contract rose 2.87% to 826, CP swap M1 contract rose 1.12% to 656.52, and CP swap M2 contract rose 1.44% to 666.02 [2]. LPG Inventory - LPG refinery capacity utilization ratio decreased by 4.34% to 24.9% [2]. - LPG port inventory increased by 0.68% to 2340000 tons, and the port capacity utilization ratio increased by 0.67% to 36.1% [2]. LPG Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates - The upstream main - refinery operating rate decreased by 3.54% to 71.99% [2]. - The sample enterprise weekly production - sales ratio decreased by 0.99% to 100 [2]. - The downstream PDH operating rate decreased by 3.09% to 63.6%, the MTBE operating rate increased by 0.55% to 69.9%, and the alkylation operating rate increased by 2.66% to 38.6% [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The futures price fluctuates and declines, with the latest basis at -588 (+457), and the May - June spread at 193 (+31). The number of warehouse receipts is 1300 lots (-1800), with Jingbo having a reduction of 1800. The cheapest deliverable is Shandong ether - after carbon four at 6080 (+130). Shandong civil LPG is at 6100 (+110), East China civil LPG at 7065 (+876), and South China civil LPG at 7205 (+905). The FEI monthly spread is 104 US dollars (-8), and the oil - gas ratio fluctuates. The internal and external PG - FEI c2 reaches 156 (+13). The South China CP propane arrival discount is 368 (-133), and the FOB discounts for AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane are 45 (-5), 182 (-91), and 245 (+245) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrows, with the latest at -122 (-46). Propane import profit rises significantly. The spot profit of China's PDH - made propylene weakens, with the latest at 734 (-611); the paper goods of PDH - made PP in East and South China fluctuate significantly. The port inventory ratio is 36.08% (-0.24pct), the arrival volume is 52.8 tons (-18.27%), the factory storage capacity utilization is 24.92% (-1.13pct), and the external release is 51.78 tons (-3.36%). The PDH operating rate is 63.6% (-2.03pct); the alkylation oil capacity utilization rate is 38.6% (+0pct); the MTBE operating rate is 67.3% (+0.76pct); the MTBE export order is 0 tons (-4.5). Overall, the conflict between the US and Iran shows no sign of cooling, the US terminal operation is at full capacity, and the inventory in April still has support, but the subsequent supply shortage may become more prominent. There may be measures to ensure people's livelihoods in China, the PP - PG spread continues to widen, but the current valuation is not low and there may be negative feedback from the terminal, so it is not advisable to chase the high. The PG May - June spread valuation is not low, and short - term geopolitical news has a large impact, so it is recommended to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From March 23 - 27, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, Shandong alkylation oil, paper import profit, and main basis are presented with daily data and their corresponding changes. For example, on March 23, South China LPG was 7080, and on March 27, it was 7205, with a daily change of -15 on March 27 compared to the previous day [1] Weekly Outlook - Futures price: Fluctuates and declines, with the basis and month - spread changes as mentioned above [1] - Warehouse receipts: 1300 lots (-1800), with Jingbo having a reduction of 1800 [1] - Deliverable: The cheapest is Shandong ether - after carbon four at 6080 (+130) [1] - Civil LPG prices: Shandong at 6100 (+110), East China at 7065 (+876), South China at 7205 (+905) [1] - FEI - related data: FEI monthly spread is 104 US dollars (-8), FEI - MOPJ spread is -122 (-46) [1] - Oil - gas ratio: Fluctuates [1] - PG - FEI c2: Reaches 156 (+13) [1] - Propane discounts: South China CP propane arrival discount is 368 (-133), AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane FOB discounts are 45 (-5), 182 (-91), and 245 (+245) respectively [1] - Profit situation: Propane import profit rises significantly; China's PDH - made propylene spot profit weakens to 734 (-611); the paper goods of PDH - made PP in East and South China fluctuate significantly [1] - Inventory and operation data: Port inventory ratio is 36.08% (-0.24pct), arrival volume is 52.8 tons (-18.27%), factory storage capacity utilization is 24.92% (-1.13pct), external release is 51.78 tons (-3.36%). PDH operating rate is 63.6% (-2.03pct), alkylation oil capacity utilization rate is 38.6% (+0pct), MTBE operating rate is 67.3% (+0.76pct), MTBE export order is 0 tons (-4.5) [1] - Market judgment: The US - Iran conflict shows no sign of cooling, the US terminal operation is at full capacity, April inventory has support, but subsequent supply shortage may be more prominent. There may be measures to ensure people's livelihoods in China, the PP - PG spread continues to widen, but the current valuation is not low and there may be negative feedback from the terminal, so it is not advisable to chase the high. The PG May - June spread valuation is not low, and short - term geopolitical news has a large impact, so it is recommended to wait and see [1]

Summary of Jiufeng Energy Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jiufeng Energy - **Date**: March 17, 2026 - **Industry**: Natural Gas, LPG, Specialty Gases, Energy Services Key Points Strategic Direction - **"One Body, Two Wings" Strategy**: Focus on natural gas and LPG as the main body, with specialty gases and energy services as the wings, aiming for a doubling of performance by 2028 [2][4] - **Core Growth from Xinjiang Coal-to-Gas Project**: Total capacity of 4.1 billion cubic meters, with company rights to 2.1 billion cubic meters (approximately 1.38 million tons of LNG), expected to be operational by mid-2028, with cost control targeted below 1.2 RMB per cubic meter [2][6] Energy Services Expansion - **LNG Liquefaction Capacity Increase**: Plans to increase LNG liquefaction capacity from 940,000 tons to 2 million tons within three years, with four projects expected to contribute a profit of 480 million RMB (approximately 240 million RMB attributable to the parent company) [2][6] Specialty Gases Focus - **Commercial Aerospace Sector**: Secured a two-year project with Hainan Commercial Launch, holding over 80% market share; expanding into Jiuquan and Shandong bases to benefit from future high-density launch demands [2][6] LPG Business Synergy - **Dual Warehouse Coordination**: After integrating the Huakai project, the collaboration with Dongguan terminal is expected to exceed 2 million tons in turnover by 2026, with sources expanded to Africa, Australia, and the Americas to mitigate geopolitical risks [2][6] Development Phases - **2025-2027 Energy Accumulation Phase**: Focus on advancing Xinjiang project, LPG terminal, and specialty gas initiatives, employing a strategy combining long-term contracts and spot market responses to international LNG price fluctuations [2][4] Project Progress and Operations - **Xinjiang Coal-to-Gas Project**: Construction commenced on the ninth day of the lunar new year in 2026, with all necessary permits secured and financing discussions ongoing [6][13] - **LPG Operations**: The dual warehouse model is expected to enhance operational efficiency, with the Huakai project integrated and operational by mid-2026 [6][13] Market Strategy and Risk Management - **Response to Geopolitical Uncertainty**: The company emphasizes the ability to navigate external changes, focusing on long-term strategic project execution while ensuring short-term performance [8][9] - **LNG and LPG Pricing Strategy**: Plans to secure long-term supply agreements and explore new supply options to mitigate price volatility due to geopolitical tensions [12][16] Future Outlook - **Growth Attributes**: The company defines its growth based on industry attributes, corporate characteristics, and core capabilities, emphasizing proactive project development and strategic execution [10][11] - **Investment in Strategic Projects**: The focus remains on ensuring the successful execution of strategic projects to achieve high-quality growth post-2028 [17] Conclusion - **Commitment to Growth**: Jiufeng Energy positions itself as a growth-oriented enterprise, with a clear strategy and operational focus aimed at delivering substantial returns to investors through strategic project execution and market adaptability [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the critical situation in India regarding the supply of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), which is essential for cooking and industrial use, due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affecting imports [4][10]. Group 1: Supply Chain and Dependency - India is the world's second-largest importer of LPG, consuming approximately 31 million tons annually, with about 60% of this supply coming from imports primarily through the Strait of Hormuz [4][10]. - The recent conflict in the Middle East has raised concerns about the reliability of LPG supplies, leading to panic buying and hoarding behaviors among consumers [5][10]. - The government has acknowledged a potential shortfall of 25% in the next quarter due to the ongoing crisis [10]. Group 2: Impact on Daily Life and Businesses - The LPG crisis has significantly affected households, restaurants, and small businesses, with many restaurants reducing menu options or switching to alternative cooking methods like electric stoves or firewood [8][9]. - Notable restaurants in Bangalore have reported drastic reductions in seating capacity and menu items due to gas shortages, indicating a broader impact on the food service industry [8][9]. - The government has ordered refineries to maximize LPG production, resulting in a reported 28% increase in output since the directive [9]. Group 3: Government Response and Future Outlook - The Indian government is actively seeking to diversify its sources of LPG beyond the Gulf region, including imports from the US, Norway, Canada, Algeria, and Russia [10]. - The transition to natural gas for cooking has been accelerated by government initiatives, with expectations that over 330 million households will use gas by 2025, up from 145 million a decade ago [11][12]. - However, this shift has also increased India's dependency on imports, making it vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LPG futures price increased. On March 12, the PG2604 contract closed at 5,641 (+194) at 3 pm, with a 4 - 5 month spread of 127 (-32). The number of warehouse receipts was 3,108 (+0). The night - session closed at 5,706 (+21), and the 4 - 5 month spread was 143 (+16) [1]. - The LPG market in Shandong showed mixed price movements, with high - priced areas experiencing price corrections and low - priced areas seeing price rebounds. The overall trading atmosphere was good, driven by the rise in crude oil prices. The estimated price of domestic LPG in Shandong was 5,200 yuan/ton, a 170 - yuan increase from the previous period. The East China market was stable with a downward trend, and the mainstream transaction price was between 5,900 - 6,500 yuan/ton [1]. - Last week, the futures price rose significantly, mainly due to geopolitical factors. The basis first decreased and then rebounded, with the latest value at - 688 (-346). The 4 - 5 month spread was 127 (+60). The number of warehouse receipts was 4,652 lots (-2,027). The cheapest deliverable was Shanghai domestic LPG at 4,800 (+600). The FEI month spread was 57 US dollars (+32), and the oil - gas price ratio increased significantly [1]. - The domestic and international markets fluctuated widely. The PG - FEI c1 reached 97 (+2). The East China propane arrival premium was 208 (+101); the AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane FOB premiums were 92 (+72), 159 (+81), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 68 [1]. - The spot profit of PDH increased significantly, and the paper profit first decreased and then rebounded. The port inventory ratio was 35.6% (+2.5 pct). The production - sales rate of LPG sample enterprises was 103% (+3 pct), and the external supply was 562,000 tons (-1.87%). The PDH operating rate was 64.93% (+1.7 pct) [1]. - In the second week after the Spring Festival, the downstream demand recovered slowly, and the supply was not substantially affected. The fundamental situation was weak. The impact of the Middle East supply interruption may gradually emerge in late March or April. The domestic basis is weak, and the PG import profit has dropped to a deep negative value. The 4 - 5 month spread is mainly affected by the development of the Middle East situation and may remain strong in the short - term under the sign of geopolitical heating [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Day - to - Day Data | Date | South China LPG | East China LPG | Shandong LPG | Propane CFR South China | Propane CIF Japan | CP Forecast Contract Price | Shandong Ether - after Carbon Four | Shandong Alkylation Oil | Paper Import Profit | Main Contract Basis | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2026/03/06 | 5,145 | 4,981 | 4,940 | 770 | 791 | 570 | 5,150 | 7,800 | - 908 | - 220 | | 2026/03/09 | 5,920 | 5,973 | 7,310 | 860 | 954 | 593 | 7,350 | 10,500 | - 819 | 304 | | 2026/03/10 | 6,140 | 6,378 | 6,420 | 860 | 761 | 580 | 6,860 | 9,500 | - 562 | 868 | | 2026/03/11 | 6,120 | 6,378 | 5,030 | 865 | 791 | 575 | 6,000 | 9,000 | - 626 | - 217 | | 2026/03/12 | 6,110 | 6,264 | 5,230 | 935 | - | 578 | 5,420 | 8,500 | - 1,172 | - 211 | | Day - to - Day Change | - 10 | - 114 | 200 | 70 | - | 3 | - 580 | - 500 | - 546 | 6 | [1] Day - to - Day Viewpoint - The LPG futures price increased. On March 12, the PG2604 contract closed at 5,641 (+194) at 3 pm, with a 4 - 5 month spread of 127 (-32). The number of warehouse receipts was 3,108 (+0). The night - session closed at 5,706 (+21), and the 4 - 5 month spread was 143 (+16) [1]. - The LPG market in Shandong showed mixed price movements, with high - priced areas experiencing price corrections and low - priced areas seeing price rebounds. The overall trading atmosphere was good, driven by the rise in crude oil prices. The estimated price of domestic LPG in Shandong was 5,200 yuan/ton, a 170 - yuan increase from the previous period. The East China market was stable with a downward trend, and the mainstream transaction price was between 5,900 - 6,500 yuan/ton [1]. Weekly Viewpoint - Last week, the futures price rose significantly, mainly due to geopolitical factors. The basis first decreased and then rebounded, with the latest value at - 688 (-346). The 4 - 5 month spread was 127 (+60). The number of warehouse receipts was 4,652 lots (-2,027). The cheapest deliverable was Shanghai domestic LPG at 4,800 (+600). The FEI month spread was 57 US dollars (+32), and the oil - gas price ratio increased significantly [1]. - The domestic and international markets fluctuated widely. The PG - FEI c1 reached 97 (+2). The East China propane arrival premium was 208 (+101); the AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane FOB premiums were 92 (+72), 159 (+81), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 68 [1]. - The spot profit of PDH increased significantly, and the paper profit first decreased and then rebounded. The port inventory ratio was 35.6% (+2.5 pct). The production - sales rate of LPG sample enterprises was 103% (+3 pct), and the external supply was 562,000 tons (-1.87%). The PDH operating rate was 64.93% (+1.7 pct) [1]. - In the second week after the Spring Festival, the downstream demand recovered slowly, and the supply was not substantially affected. The fundamental situation was weak. The impact of the Middle East supply interruption may gradually emerge in late March or April. The domestic basis is weak, and the PG import profit has dropped to a deep negative value. The 4 - 5 month spread is mainly affected by the development of the Middle East situation and may remain strong in the short - term under the sign of geopolitical heating [1].

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On March 9, spot prices of liquefied gas in various domestic markets showed different ranges, and the prices of propane and butane in the frozen cargo arrival prices in East and South China in the first half of April 2026 increased significantly [1] - Driven by weekend news and the overall sentiment of the energy sector, both the domestic liquefied gas spot and futures markets rose significantly, but the market volatility also increased significantly [1] - The current main contradiction in the market lies in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, especially the passage situation of the Strait of Hormuz. As of March 9, the number of oil tankers passing through the strait remained at a very low level, and the supply of LPG in the Middle East was significantly tightened [1] - Although the increase in US LPG shipments can fill the Middle East gap to some extent, if the Strait blockade continues, the market may further tighten [1] - The PG market has entered a high - volatility stage, and the development of the Iranian situation will have a decisive impact on the market [1] - The short - term strategy for the single - side trading is to be oscillating and bullish, and attention should be paid to the development of the Iranian situation [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 9, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 7060 - 7600; North China market, 5850 - 6560; East China market, 5700 - 6110; Yangtze River area market, 5960 - 6280; Northwest market, 5800 - 6200; South China market, 5898 - 6000 [1] - In the first half of April 2026, the frozen cargo arrival prices of propane and butane in East China were both 980 US dollars/ton, up 136 US dollars/ton, and the RMB - converted prices were both 7461 yuan/ton, up 1047 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of April 2026, the frozen cargo arrival prices of propane and butane in South China were both 980 US dollars/ton, up 136 US dollars/ton, and the RMB - converted prices were both 7461 yuan/ton, up 1047 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - Single - side: Short - term oscillating and bullish, pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LPG this week are neutral to weak, but the market is highly volatile due to the Iran-US situation. The closure risk of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's status as an important LPG importer for China bring supply-side disturbances and inject risk premiums into the market [2][3]. - In the short term, the Iran-US situation remains the main disruptive factor, increasing supply risks. In the long - term, supply is expected to remain resilient, while demand growth in China and India is expected to slow down [6][11]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost - end: Risks in the crude oil market have increased, with the pricing core in the short term being the geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East. The Iran - US conflict has escalated, leading to a sharp rise in global risk - aversion sentiment and an 8% increase in the dark market [2]. - External market: Propane in the external market has continued to strengthen this week. The shipping volume in the Middle East is neutral, and a sudden device failure in Saudi Arabia, along with the de - facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has boosted prices [2]. - Domestic market: The domestic fundamentals have marginally weakened. The supply has increased due to higher commodity volume and arrivals, and both factory and port inventories have risen. The PDH operating rate has slightly declined and is in the process of recovery, with some devices still under maintenance. If Middle East supply is disrupted, future arrivals are expected to be low, which will support prices [3]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Market positioning: The market is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the price range of PG04 between 4,200 and 4,800 [15]. - Basis strategy: The basis is expected to shrink, as the futures price has a premium due to geopolitical conflicts, and the spot price may follow the increase but to a lesser extent [16]. - Calendar spread strategy: Consider reverse arbitrage at high prices, as the fundamentals of the near - term contract have marginally weakened, while the far - term contract is relatively stronger due to overseas prices and domestic maintenance expectations [17]. - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to the opportunities in the domestic - foreign price spread [18]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range prediction: The predicted monthly price range for LPG is 4,200 - 4,800, with a current volatility of 28.91% and a historical volatility percentage of 68.03% over three years [19]. - Hedging strategies: For inventory management, when inventory is high, consider shorting PG2604 futures or selling call options on PG2604C5000 to lock in profits. For procurement management, when inventory is low, consider buying PG2604 futures or selling put options on PG2604P4000 at low prices to lock in procurement costs [19]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Saudi Arabia cancelled the FOB shipping plan from March 1 - 24, 2026, due to a device failure. The Iranian Islamic Guard announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, causing shipping stagnation [20]. - Bearish information: OPEC+ is considering increasing the oil production increase to up to 411,000 barrels per day, compared to the previous estimate of maintaining a 137,000 - barrel - per - day increase in the fourth quarter [20]. 2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - Focus on the development of the Iran - US situation, the US ISM manufacturing index for February on March 2, China's official manufacturing PMI on March 4, and the US unemployment rate for February on March 6 [21]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - Domestic market: The PG04 contract has been fluctuating this week. The net positions of major profit - making seats have decreased, while both the top 5 long and short positions in the order book have significantly increased. Foreign investors' net long positions have slightly increased, and retail investors' net long positions have slightly decreased. Technically, the contract is above the middle Bollinger Band, with resistance at 4,600. It is expected to gap up on Monday due to the Iran - US situation, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [22]. - The LPG term structure shows a BACK structure, with the 3 - 4 month spread at - 477 yuan/ton and the 4 - 5 month spread at 75 yuan/ton [25]. - External market: FEI M1 closed at $610.82/ton (+$44.66), CP M1 at $539.75/ton (+$0.62), and MB M1 at $350.89/ton (+$10.42). The market has generally risen due to the Iran - US situation and the Saudi device failure. The FEI M1 - M2 spread is $47.50/ton, the CP M1 - M2 spread is - $3.5/ton, and the MB M1 - M2 spread is $2.39/ton. The FEI spread has strengthened significantly due to buying and freight factors [28][32]. - Regional price spread: The FEI - MB spread has widened significantly, and the US - Asia arbitrage window has remained open. The spread between FEI and CP has weakened significantly [34]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Upstream profit: The gross profit of major refineries this week is 749 yuan/ton (- 147 yuan), and that of Shandong local refineries is 75 yuan/ton (+172 yuan). The profit of local refineries has continued to shrink [37]. - Downstream profit: The PDH profit with FEI as the cost is - 561 yuan/ton, and that with CP as the cost is - 268 yuan/ton, remaining in a loss state. The MTBE gas - fractionation profit is - 21 yuan/ton, the isomerization profit is 68 yuan, and the alkylation oil profit is - 129 yuan/ton, with profits slightly weakening [39]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - This week, the import profit has been fluctuating, and the import profit in South China has weakened [42]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Overseas Supply and Demand - US supply and demand: Production has recovered, demand has declined from a high level, and the inventory - reduction pace has slowed, in line with seasonal patterns. In 2025, the US exported 68,283 kt of LPG, a 2.52% year - on - year increase. In February 2026, it exported 5,471 kt, a 9.98% year - on - year increase, with a large amount sent to Japan and South Korea. This week's shipments are neutral, with a decline in the volume sent to China [48][55]. - Middle East supply: In 2025, the Middle East exported 48,463 kt of LPG, a 2.43% year - on - year increase. In February 2026, it exported 3,570 kt, a 2.23% year - on - year decrease. Shipments in recent weeks have been low. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Saudi device failure may affect exports to Asia by 90,000 barrels per day [59]. - India supply and demand: From January to December, India's LPG demand was 331,774 kt, a 6.67% year - on - year increase. In 2025, it imported 23,229 kt, an 8.12% year - on - year increase. In February 2026, it imported 2,149 kt, a 16.66% year - on - year increase [62]. - South Korea supply and demand: South Korea's LPG demand has no obvious seasonality, mainly for chemical use. In 2025, it imported 8,434 kt, a 2.56% year - on - year decrease. In February 2026, it imported 601 kt, a 4.96% year - on - year increase. Since the fourth quarter, the cracking economy of LPG relative to naphtha has not been good [66]. - Japan supply and demand: Japan is highly dependent on LPG imports, and its demand and imports have obvious seasonality. In February 2026, it imported 1,053 kt, a 23.22% year - on - year increase, and its LPG inventory was at a new low [68]. 5.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - Domestic supply and demand balance: Supply is expected to remain high, but the external sales volume is not high. Import volume is not high according to shipping data. Demand shows a decrease in chemical demand and an increase in combustion demand. The overall inventory is decreasing, mainly at the port [77]. - Domestic supply: The operating rate of major refineries is 81.81% (+1.79%), and that of independent refineries is 51.68% (- 1.92%). The domestic LPG external sales volume is 548,800 tons (+5,100 tons), and the arrival volume is 508,000 tons (+13,000 tons). The factory inventory rate is 24.21% (- 0.39%), and the port inventory is 2,018,000 tons (+142,000 tons) [81]. - Domestic demand: PDH demand: Some devices such as Jinneng, Zhongjing, and Juzhengyuan are under maintenance. MTBE demand: There are no device changes this week, and the domestic - foreign price spread is strengthening. Alkylation oil demand: There are no device changes this week. Combustion demand: No specific data changes are mentioned, but the overall combustion demand is increasing [90][92][98].

Group 1: Market Analysis - On February 26, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4450 - 4500; Northeast market, 3670 - 4100; North China market, 4180 - 4450; East China market, 4200 - 4400; Yangtze River market, 4560 - 4780; Northwest market, 4050 - 4250; South China market, 4600 - 4850 [1] - In the second half of March 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 670 USD/ton, up 10 USD/ton, and butane was 660 USD/ton, up 10 USD/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 5106 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton, and butane was 5030 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of March 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in South China was 660 USD/ton, up 10 USD/ton, and butane was 650 USD/ton, up 10 USD/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 5030 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton, and butane was 4954 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton [1] - On the evening of the 25th, a sudden failure occurred at the Saudi juaymah NGL facility, canceling some loading plans at the Ras Tanura terminal in March. The international market remains tight and import costs are high, which may further suppress the profits of domestic chemical plants [1] - Besides unexpected force majeure, the current market contradiction mainly comes from the geopolitical level. The situation in Iran will have a significant impact on the implied emotional premium of energy commodities. Attention should be paid to the negotiation progress between the two sides and the US military deployment [1] Group 2: Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term shock and upward trend, focus on the development of the Iranian situation. No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [2] Group 3: Figures - Figures include prices of various types of liquefied gas and related futures data, such as Shandong civil liquefied gas spot price, East China civil liquefied gas spot price, South China civil liquefied gas spot price, etc., with corresponding units [3]