交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年12月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.1万吨，环比增长8.00%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为29.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1384元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为69.79%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.23万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为104元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为636.83元/吨，再生铝开工率为59.8%，环比持平，处于高 位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The LPG futures contract's closing price increased by 28 yuan/ton to 4317 yuan/ton, a 0.65% rise. The national LPG market price went up, with the average price reaching 4360 yuan/ton, a 0.44% increase from the previous workday. The LPG market is expected to operate in a range - bound manner [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Overview - The international LPG market showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week, but the overall price center shifted upward. The non - US supply was tight while market buying interest remained strong. The Middle East's January shipment negotiations were active, and the demand was firm. The Far - East arbitrage window in the European and American markets was still open, but buying interest weakened due to shrinking arbitrage. In the Far - East market, LPG prices rose first and then fell. In the shipping market, freight rates from the Middle East to the Far East and from the US Gulf of Mexico to the Far East both increased slightly [3]. 3.2 Regional Market Conditions 3.2.1 East China Region - The average price of the civil LPG market increased by 13 yuan/ton to 4360 yuan/ton, a 0.30% increase. The market in East China mainly rose this week. The release of December CP last week increased the import cost, supporting the sentiment of upstream and downstream. The refinery supply in Shanghai and Jiangsu decreased, and the overall supply showed an obvious narrowing trend. Chemical demand increased slightly, and downstream enthusiasm for entering the market was strong. The import cost increased, but the price increase of imported gas was less than that of domestic gas [3]. 3.2.2 South China Region - The average price of the civil LPG market increased by 25 yuan/ton to 4360 yuan/ton, a 0.58% increase. The LPG market in South China rose across the board this week. Supply tightness and cost increase were the main supporting factors. For civil gas, terminals led the price increase. Due to delayed ship arrivals, some terminal inventories were low, and importers continuously raised prices. Refineries quickly followed suit. For industrial gas, the supply pressure of refineries was relieved, and the prices also increased [3]. 3.2.3 Shandong Region - The average price of the civil LPG market increased by 10 yuan/ton to 4460 yuan/ton, a 0.22% increase, and the average price of ether - post - carbon - four increased by 6 yuan/ton to 4281 yuan/ton. The civil LPG market in Shandong first remained stable and then rose, reaching a high in nearly two months. The increase in CP led to an obvious rise in import costs, driving up the price of related propane and slightly improving the profitability of downstream chemical plants [3]. 3.3 Price and Spread - Futures prices: The closing price of the main LPG futures contract increased by 28 yuan/ton to 4317 yuan/ton, a 0.65% increase; the settlement price increased by 19 yuan/ton to 4301 yuan/ton, a 0.44% increase. - Inter - month spreads: The spreads between different LPG contracts showed different changes, such as PG2601 - PG2602 being - 15 yuan/ton (down from 96 yuan/ton), and PG2601 - PG2603 being 229 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton). - Cross - variety spreads: For example, PG - 7.33*SC was 999.44 yuan/ton, a 0.50% decrease [3]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The production cost of PDH - made propylene was 6392 yuan/ton, a 0.06% decrease; the production cost of PDH - made PP was 7575.55 yuan/ton, a 0.79% increase. The production profit of PDH - made propylene was - 397 yuan/ton, a 0.25% decrease; the production profit of PDH - made PP was - 1252.22 yuan/ton, a 7.35% decrease [3]. 3.5 Other Information - Freight rates: Freight rates for different shipping routes remained unchanged. - Exchange - rate and interest - rate: The US dollar index decreased by 0.46%, and SHIBOR - overnight remained basically unchanged at 1.3020% [3].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for soda ash is experiencing a slight increase, with the main contract rising by 1.28% to 1183.00 CNY/ton, despite a generally weak demand environment and high inventory levels [1][2]. Supply Side - Soda ash enterprises are making minor adjustments to their operations, with little change in production levels and few upcoming maintenance plans. New production capacity is expected to come online, maintaining overall output at relatively high levels [2]. - Manufacturers are primarily focused on fulfilling previous orders, with new orders being limited. Although short-term inventory levels are decreasing, the absolute inventory remains high [2]. Demand Side - The demand for soda ash is weak, particularly in the float glass industry, which is facing a dual weakness in supply and demand. The recovery in demand is hindered by a lack of improvement in the real estate market, which is the main downstream sector for float glass [2]. - Additionally, the anticipated demand from the photovoltaic sector for dense soda ash has not materialized, further limiting overall demand growth [2]. Inventory Levels - As of December 1, 2025, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers in China is 1.5699 million tons, a decrease of 17,500 tons (1.10%) from the previous week. This includes 734,500 tons of light soda ash (down 6,100 tons) and 835,400 tons of dense soda ash (down 11,400 tons) [2]. Market Outlook - The futures market shows clear bottom characteristics, but there is a lack of new driving forces. The market is expected to experience strong oscillation around the bottom, with future trends requiring more catalysts to materialize. Key factors to monitor include soda ash production levels, product release schedules from Alashan, downstream purchasing rhythms, and trends in the macroeconomic and commodity markets [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side's production schedule has decreased and is near the historical average. The demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9025 - 9235 [3][5]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production schedule continues to decrease, and the overall demand shows a continuous decline. Cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 55555 - 57295 [7][8]. - The main logic of the market is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment. The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' shutdown and production - cut plans, while the main bearish factors are slow post - holiday demand recovery and strong supply but weak demand in downstream polysilicon [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 91,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 82,000 tons, a 2.50% increase from the previous week, showing an upward trend [5]. - Inventory: Polysilicon inventory is 281,000 tons (low), silicone inventory is 56,300 tons (low), and aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 74,600 tons (high). Social inventory increased by 0.36% to 550,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory increased by 1.01% to 179,600 tons, and main port inventory remained unchanged at 129,000 tons [5]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 2,874 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season [5]. - Basis: On November 28, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 220 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [5]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [5]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [5]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the output was 24,000 tons, a 11.43% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule in December is predicted to be 113,500 tons, a 0.95% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 12.02GW, a 5.94% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory increased by 4.16%. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is generally in a state of continuous decline [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,810 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,190 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On November 28, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 4,125 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 281,000 tons, a 3.69% increase from the previous week, at a historical low [8]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [8]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts showed an upward trend, with increases ranging from 0.16% to 0.71%. Spot prices of various types of silicon remained mostly unchanged [15]. - Inventory: Social inventory increased by 0.36%, sample enterprise inventory increased by 1.01%, and main port inventory remained unchanged [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures prices of most contracts showed an upward trend, with increases ranging from 2.15% to 3.05%. Spot prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly unchanged [17]. - Inventory: The weekly total inventory increased by 3.69% to 281,000 tons [17]. 3.3 Downstream Market Analysis 3.3.1 Organic Silicon - DMC: The daily capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 74.84%, higher than the historical average. The weekly output increased by 3.58% to 49,200 tons, and the monthly inventory increased by 2.18% to 56,300 tons [15][45]. - Downstream products: Prices of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 remained stable [47]. 3.3.2 Aluminum Alloy - Production: The monthly output of primary aluminum - based alloy ingots increased by 9.93% to 132,800 tons, and the monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42% to 645,000 tons [15]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.80% to 74,600 tons [15][16]. 3.3.3 Polysilicon - Industry cost: The cost showed a certain trend of change, with the average cost of the industry remaining stable at 38,810 yuan/ton [63]. - Silicon wafers: The weekly output decreased, and the inventory increased. The prices of various types of silicon wafers remained stable [17][69]. - Battery cells: The production and inventory of battery cells showed certain changes, and the prices of various types of battery cells remained mostly stable [17][72]. - Components: The monthly output decreased, and the domestic and European inventories decreased. The prices of various types of components remained stable [17][75].

Report Summary 1. Report Information - **Industry**: Eggs [1] - **Date**: November 24, 2025 [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot market for eggs weakened continuously this week and then stabilized. The egg prices in the two major producing regions of Hubei and Hunan, which led the previous rebound, have been falling since last week until mid - week. The red eggs in the north were relatively balanced in supply and demand but also weakened under the influence of the powder eggs. The national market prices stabilized on Friday, and market sentiment improved to some extent. [8] - In December, the demand for eggs will gradually enter the peak season with the expectation of double - holiday stocking. The decline in the price of culled chickens indicates that the culling rhythm is progressing orderly. The downside of egg prices should not be overly underestimated, while the upside space depends on market digestion and sales. The trend is unclear, and egg prices are expected to stabilize at a low level next week. [8] - In the futures market, the main contract fluctuated at a low level this week without a clear direction. The 01 contract fell below 3200 points, close to historical lows, attracting some bottom - fishing funds. However, compared with the end of 2016 and 2019, the current spot price is lower. From the perspective of basis, although it is close to the absolute price low, there are risks in going long. The futures market is expected to bottom out and wait for the spot price to rebound. [8] - The longer the egg price remains low in the fourth quarter, the greater the probability and elasticity of a reversal in the first quarter and second quarter of next year. [8] 3. Content Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Today, the national egg prices were stable. The average price in the main producing areas was 2.84 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from yesterday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.15 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 01 contract fell 0.75%. [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: In the options market, focus on the wide - straddle double - selling strategy for near - month contracts; in the spread market, conduct reverse spread rolling operations for near - and far - month spreads. [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: The current egg - laying hen inventory has slightly declined but remains at a historically high level for the same period. As of the end of October 2025, the national monthly inventory of egg - laying hens was about 1.359 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%, ending the previous continuous growth trend, but a year - on - year increase of 5.59% compared with October 2024. [9] - **Replenishment**: The momentum of replenishment continues to slow down. In October 2025, the monthly output of egg - laying chicks from sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly less than 39.2 million in September 2025 and significantly less than 44.83 million in the same period in 2024. From July to October 2025, the total replenishment was about 158.14 million, compared with about 176.1 million in the same period in 2024. [9][10] 3.3 Data Overview - **Culling Volume**: As of November 20, 2025, the national culling volumes in the previous three weeks were 19.81 million, 19.47 million, and 20.21 million respectively. The culling volume has fluctuated recently but has slightly increased overall compared with the previous period. [19] - **Culling Age**: As of November 20, 2025, the average culling age of hens was 492 days, one day earlier than last week and seven days earlier than last month, indicating an accelerated culling speed. [19]

Core Viewpoint - The PX market is experiencing a strong performance with futures prices rising, while the supply-demand dynamics indicate potential pressures in the medium term [1][2][3] Group 1: PX Market Performance - As of November 6, PX futures showed a strong upward trend, with the main contract increasing by 1.84% to 6740.0 yuan/ton [1] - The spot market for PX saw a narrowing of the monthly difference from +7 to +3, maintaining a strong floating level, with December negotiations around +7/+8 and January around +1/+3 [2] Group 2: Production and Capacity Utilization - PX production for the week was reported at 737,400 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.85% [2] - Domestic PX average capacity utilization rate stood at 87.93%, up by 1.6% from the previous week [2] Group 3: Price Trends and Market Outlook - On November 5, the closing prices for PX in Asia rose by $2/ton, with prices at $793-795/ton FOB Korea and $818-820/ton CFR China [2] - New Century Futures noted that while there is an expectation of improved supply-demand for PX, the overall pressure on PX prices remains due to the imbalance in the polyester industry chain [3] - Mai Ke Futures indicated that although PX profits may expand further, the current profit levels in the polyester chain are relatively high, limiting the upward potential for PX prices [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The EC futures market maintains a volatile trend. Spot freight rates are expected to gradually rise from November to December, and shipping companies are likely to continue to announce price increases. The market should focus on the implementation of these price increases. In terms of fundamentals, the shipping volume from November to December is expected to gradually improve, and attention should be paid to the impact of possible tariff improvements on the shipping rhythm. The shipping capacity from October to November remains relatively stable, with a slight increase in the average weekly shipping capacity in December. There are expectations of a reduction in port fees, and the progress of the cease - fire agreement in the Middle East is tortuous and has recently escalated. The China - US economic and trade consultations have basically reached a consensus, and attention should be paid to the impact of tariff relaxation on future shipping volume and rhythm [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contract Performance**: On October 30, 2025, the closing prices of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 decreased, with declines of - 1.45%, - 1.43%, - 1.55%, - 1.38%, - 2.22%, and - 0.63% respectively. The trading volumes of these contracts all decreased, with decreases of - 49.05%, - 47.43%, - 35.57%, - 38.06%, - 10.53%, and - 21.46% respectively. The positions of some contracts increased, while others decreased [4]. - **Monthly Spread Structure**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes. For example, the spread of EC12 - EC02 decreased by 4.2, and the spread of EC02 - EC08 increased by 10.8 [4]. 3.2 Container Freight Rates - **Weekly Container Freight Rates**: The SCFIS European line index was 1312.71 points, with a week - on - week increase of 15.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 40.54%. The SCFIS US West line index was 1107.32 points, with a week - on - week increase of 28.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 60.70%. Different routes of the SCFI index also showed different trends in price changes [4]. 3.3 Fuel Costs - The price of WTI crude oil near - month was $60.00 per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.56%. The price of Brent crude oil near - month was $64.3 per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.5% [4]. 3.4 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - **Market Analysis**: The China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur have basically reached a consensus. Some shipping companies have lowered their spot quotes, and the market is continuously gaming the subsequent freight rates. The EC futures market maintains a volatile trend. The spot freight rates of mainstream shipping companies have a large price difference, and the spot price center is expected to gradually rise. In terms of fundamentals, the demand from November to December is expected to improve, and the supply capacity in December will increase slightly. There are expectations of a reduction in port fees, and the Middle East geopolitical situation has escalated. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff relaxation on future shipping volume and rhythm [5][6]. - **Trading Strategies**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to maintain a volatile view and mainly wait and see in the short term. For arbitrage trading, it is recommended to wait and see [7]. 3.5 Industry News - Israel's military has started to re - implement the Gaza cease - fire agreement, while the Israeli Defense Forces will continue to take actions to eliminate any direct threats [8][9].

Core Insights - The polysilicon price index this week is 52.36 yuan/kg, influenced by various market factors [1] - The production of polysilicon remains stable with a weekly output of 31,000 tons, while demand is expected to decrease in Q4 due to production cuts by wafer manufacturers [1] Supply and Demand - The N-type polysilicon re-investment material is priced between 50.1 - 55 yuan/kg, and granular silicon is priced at 50 - 51 yuan/kg [1] - The supply of polysilicon is expected to increase by 3,000 to 5,000 tons month-on-month in October, with the current weekly production at 31,000 tons [1] - Wafer manufacturers are maintaining normal production during the National Day holiday, leading to a tight balance in supply and demand for September and October [1] Inventory Levels - Polysilicon inventory has increased to 240,000 tons, reflecting a 6.2% month-on-month change, while silicon wafer inventory stands at 16.78 GW, with a 3.4% increase [1] Cost Structure - The overall cost for most companies remains around 45,000 yuan/ton, with some benefiting from lower electricity prices, bringing costs below 40,000 yuan/ton [1] Market Strategy - The industry is facing significant inventory pressure due to self-discipline in production cuts and weak consumer performance, making price transmission difficult [1] - The futures market is under pressure from the cancellation of November warehouse receipts and slow policy progress, with short-term price fluctuations expected between 47,000 - 52,000 yuan/ton [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The lithium carbonate futures market maintained a volatile trend this week. The main contract 2511 closed at 72,880 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 1.46% and a position volume of 248,640 tons. Spot prices changed little, and spot trading was average. When futures prices declined, it stimulated some point-price procurement demand [2]. - On the supply side, the weekly output of lithium carbonate increased slightly to 20,516 tons. Output from various sources such as spodumene, mica, salt lakes, and recycling all showed different degrees of change [2]. - On the consumption side, the output of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.08% month-on-month, while that of ternary materials, cobalt acid lithium, and manganese acid lithium increased. Downstream production was expected to increase, and the demand in the terminal power battery and energy storage markets supported the demand for lithium salts, but the actual replenishment was lower than expected [3]. - In terms of inventory, the total inventory decreased by 705 tons compared to last week. Inventory continued to transfer, with an increase in downstream replenishment inventory and a decrease in smelter inventory [3]. - In terms of profit, lithium ore prices fluctuated slightly, and overseas mines were reluctant to lower prices. Enterprises using externally purchased raw materials relied on futures hedging to balance profits and losses. Enterprises with their own ore sources and salt lake lithium extraction had significant cost advantages and relatively stable profit margins [3]. - The output of lithium hydroxide increased slightly this week. Due to high upstream spodumene prices and production line maintenance, the overall supply capacity of the lithium hydroxide market remained tight [4]. Strategy - The futures market maintained a volatile trend in the short term. There was some support from consumption, and the pre - National Day replenishment demand still existed. Although the disturbance in the ore sector weakened, it did not end completely. If mines resumed production and consumption weakened in the future, the market might be weak [5]. - For unilateral operations, short - term range trading was recommended. If the market rebounded significantly, selling hedging could be considered. There were no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The caustic soda market is currently under pressure from weak reality, with the Shandong 32% caustic soda spot price remaining under pressure. However, the optimistic expectations brought by future alumina production cannot be falsified in the short term. The market may show wide - range fluctuations due to the interweaving of long and short expectations [3] - The caustic soda futures market may experience low - level oscillations in the short term due to the pressure on near - month long - position takers. Before the alumina starts stocking for production, the market is still trading based on the weak reality [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On September 24, 2025, the 01 - contract futures price was 2535, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot in Shandong was 780, the Shandong 32% caustic soda spot converted to the futures price was 2438, and the basis was - 98 [1] Spot News - As of September 23, the low - concentration caustic soda market in Shandong was locally weak and stable. Under the resistance of high - price downstream buyers, some enterprises faced inventory pressure, and the key this week was for enterprises to reduce inventory in preparation for the holiday. Some downstream buyers started to plan for restocking as the current low prices were close to the cost line. High - concentration caustic soda rebounded temporarily due to short - term order support [2] Market Condition Analysis - The Shandong 32% caustic soda spot price is under pressure, but the short - term decline space may be limited due to the support of 50% caustic soda. The futures market may experience low - level oscillations due to the pressure on near - month long - position takers [3] - The high - output and high - inventory pattern of alumina has continuously compressed profits, and the marginal production capacity supply may be affected by profits in the future. Although there is a stocking demand for 5.6 million tons of new alumina production capacity in Guangxi from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, the low - profit situation may also lead to a decline in the stocking levels of other alumina plants [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, with the value range of trend intensity being an integer in the [-2, 2] interval [5]