研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2026 年 2 月 26 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2026/2/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2310 | 10 | 0.43% | 1,541 | 36.37% | 4,575 | 13.98% | | C2605 | | 2342 | 10 | 0.43% | 576,076 | -5.50% | 1,381,322 | 6.41% | | C2509 | | 2365 | 11 | 0.47% | 23,454 | -5.59% | 96,471 | 3.06% | | CS2601 | | 2653 | 10 | 0.38% | 36 | 80.00% | 82 | 7.89% | | CS2605 | | 2673 | 10 | ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 日报观点 【1】期货盘面：BU 2603主力合约日内大幅跌落，跟随市场风险偏好回落，也跟随能源板块悲观情绪 释放。收盘价3299，较昨日收盘价大跌4.87%%，盘中最高触及3467，最低3281。06远月合约涨幅 4.95%。 【2】现货基本面：供应端：截止至1月30日当周，国内炼厂产量45.6万吨，环比下跌4%。需求端：大 样本企业销售量34.12万吨，环比下跌6%。库存端：社库+厂库累计76万吨，环比下跌4%。累库速度较 上周2%有所放缓。利润端：不扣除消费税抵扣的话，生产毛利有将近34元/吨，环比上周近110元/吨回 落。 上周受期货盘面影响，平稳的现货市场同步走强，高端价格出现破位上行，低端价格托底沥青底部。个 别炼厂提高现货报价，市场低价资源逐渐减少，推涨沥青现货重心上移，炼厂挺价情绪相对高涨。但实 际现货需求来看，开工率季节性下行依旧制约基本面，炼厂报价底气主要来源于期货盘面的情绪渲染。 【3】短期展望：今日沥青大幅跌落，回吐了之前大部分地缘升级产生的溢价，其扰动因素仍在于地缘 层面，特朗普或考虑与伊朗达成协议， ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 日报观点 【1】期货盘面：BU 2603主力合约日内震荡拉锯，振幅达1.19%，下午2点后有所拉升。收盘价3279， 较昨日收盘价持平，盘中最高触及3299，最低3260。06远月合约微跌0.55%。 【2】现货基本面：截止至1月26日，DES山东稀释沥青即期升贴水录得15.97美元/桶，近些时间基本维 持在15-16美元/桶区间内。1月27日华东重交沥青市场低端价为3180元/吨；市场高端价为3230元/吨，低 端资源货从1月23日的3150元/吨有所上涨，高端货维持不变。现货市场保持平稳运行，无过多变化，现 货依旧按需采购为主。北方雨雪天气，南方降温影响，需求相对一般。受期货盘面影响，个别炼厂提高 现货报价，市场低价资源逐渐减少，对价格底部形成有效支撑。 【3】短期展望：今日沥青表现依旧展现了其抗跌属性，在整体能化板块跌势收尾下，03合约价格波动 相对稳定，日内振幅也小于SC原油03 03合约2.62%和燃料油03合约3.40%。在油价走弱下，沥青也跟随 成本端波动，只不过在原料风险托举下，跌势相对缓和。据市场消息称，委 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply side: Last week's industrial silicon supply was 88,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week. Supply scheduling has decreased but remains at a high level. - Demand side: Last week's demand was 81,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.00%, showing a rise in demand. However, overall demand recovery is at a low level. - Cost side: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 2,874 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season. - Expectation: Industrial silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,600 - 8,780 yuan/ton [3][4]. Polysilicon - Supply side: Last week's polysilicon output was 25,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39%. The scheduled output for December is predicted to be 113,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95%. Supply scheduling continues to decline. - Demand side: Downstream sectors such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have all seen a continuous decline in production, with overall demand showing a continuous recession. - Cost side: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,400 yuan/ton, with cost support remaining stable. - Expectation: Polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 59,235 - 61,255 yuan/ton [7][8][9]. Overall Market - Bullish factors: Rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production. - Bearish factors: Slow recovery of post - holiday demand and a situation of strong supply and weak demand in downstream polysilicon. - Main logic: Capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment [13][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: 88,000 tons last week, flat week - on - week. - Demand: 81,000 tons last week, up 8.00% week - on - week. - Inventory: Social inventory is 553,000 tons, down 1.42% week - on - week; sample enterprise inventory is 192,500 tons, up 2.94% week - on - week; major port inventory is 138,000 tons, up 1.47% week - on - week. - Basis: On December 19th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract basis was 510 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the 05 contract price closed below MA20. - Main positions: Net short positions by the main players, with short positions decreasing [3][4]. Polysilicon - Supply: Output of 25,000 tons last week, down 0.39% week - on - week; December scheduled output of 113,500 tons, down 0.95% month - on - month. - Demand: Downstream production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is all in decline. - Cost: Average cost of N - type polysilicon is 38,600 yuan/ton, and production profit is 12,400 yuan/ton. - Basis: On December 19th, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract basis was - 7,845 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. - Inventory: Weekly inventory is 293,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week, at a historically high level. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the 05 contract price closed above MA20. - Main positions: Net short positions by the main players, with short positions decreasing [7][8][9]. 2. Industrial Silicon Market Overview - Futures closing prices: Most contracts showed an increase, with the largest increase of 0.64% in the 09 contract and a decrease of 0.06% in the 07 contract. - Basis: Most contracts showed a decline, with the largest decline of 8.11% in the 05 contract. - Warehouse receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 9,019, an increase of 2.31% [16][17]. 3. Polysilicon Market Overview - Futures closing prices: All contracts showed an increase, with the largest increase of 2.29% in the 11 contract. - Basis: All contracts showed a decline, with the largest decline of 15.32% in the 02 contract. - Inventory: Weekly total inventory was 293,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week [19]. 4. Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Price Difference Trends The report shows the historical trends of the main contract basis of industrial silicon and the price difference between 421 and 553 silicon in East China [21][22]. 5. Polysilicon Disk Price Trends The report shows the historical trends of the main contract price, trading volume, and basis of polysilicon [24][25]. 6. Industrial Silicon Inventory - Delivery warehouse and port inventory: The report shows the historical trends of inventory in various regions and ports. - SMM sample enterprise inventory: The report shows the historical trends of inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan. - Registered warehouse receipt volume: The report shows the historical trends of the number of registered warehouse receipts [27][28][29]. 7. Industrial Silicon Output and Capacity Utilization Trends - SMM sample enterprise weekly output: The report shows the historical trends of output in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan. - Industrial silicon monthly output by specification: The report shows the historical trends of output of 421, non - oxygen - passing 553, oxygen - passing 553, and other types of silicon. - SMM sample enterprise capacity utilization: The report shows the historical trends of capacity utilization in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan [31][32][33]. 8. Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends The report shows the historical trends of cost and profit of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang [38][39]. 9. Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Weekly supply - demand balance: The report shows the historical trends of production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon. - Monthly supply - demand balance: The report shows the actual consumption, export volume, import volume, production, and supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from November 2024 to November 2025 [40][43][44]. 10. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - DMC price and production trends: The report shows the historical trends of DMC capacity utilization, profit, cost, output, and price. - Downstream price trends: The report shows the historical trends of prices of 107 rubber, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4. - Import - export and inventory trends: The report shows the historical trends of DMC import, export, and inventory [46][48][52]. 11. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Price and supply situation: The report shows the historical trends of waste aluminum recycling, social inventory, aluminum scrap import, aluminum alloy import - export, ADC12 price, and import cost - profit. - Output and production capacity trends: The report shows the historical trends of monthly output of primary aluminum - based and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, weekly operating rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots. - Demand (automobiles and wheels): The report shows the historical trends of automobile monthly output, sales, and aluminum alloy wheel export [56][58][61]. 12. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Fundamental trends: The report shows the historical trends of polysilicon industry cost, price, inventory, output, operating rate, and demand. - Supply - demand balance sheet: The report shows the supply - demand balance of polysilicon from October 2024 to October 2025. - Silicon wafer trends: The report shows the historical trends of silicon wafer price, output, inventory, demand, and net export. - Battery cell trends: The report shows the historical trends of battery cell price, production, inventory, operating rate, and export. - Photovoltaic component trends: The report shows the historical trends of component price, inventory, output, and export. - Photovoltaic accessory trends: The report shows the historical trends of photovoltaic coating price, film import - export, glass output, export, high - purity quartz sand price, and solder strip import - export. - Component composition cost - profit trends (210mm): The report shows the cost - profit trends of silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in 210mm double - sided double - glass components. - Photovoltaic grid - connected power generation trends: The report shows the historical trends of national new power generation capacity, power generation composition, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar power generation [64][67][70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The LPG futures contract's closing price increased by 28 yuan/ton to 4317 yuan/ton, a 0.65% rise. The national LPG market price went up, with the average price reaching 4360 yuan/ton, a 0.44% increase from the previous workday. The LPG market is expected to operate in a range - bound manner [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Overview - The international LPG market showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week, but the overall price center shifted upward. The non - US supply was tight while market buying interest remained strong. The Middle East's January shipment negotiations were active, and the demand was firm. The Far - East arbitrage window in the European and American markets was still open, but buying interest weakened due to shrinking arbitrage. In the Far - East market, LPG prices rose first and then fell. In the shipping market, freight rates from the Middle East to the Far East and from the US Gulf of Mexico to the Far East both increased slightly [3]. 3.2 Regional Market Conditions 3.2.1 East China Region - The average price of the civil LPG market increased by 13 yuan/ton to 4360 yuan/ton, a 0.30% increase. The market in East China mainly rose this week. The release of December CP last week increased the import cost, supporting the sentiment of upstream and downstream. The refinery supply in Shanghai and Jiangsu decreased, and the overall supply showed an obvious narrowing trend. Chemical demand increased slightly, and downstream enthusiasm for entering the market was strong. The import cost increased, but the price increase of imported gas was less than that of domestic gas [3]. 3.2.2 South China Region - The average price of the civil LPG market increased by 25 yuan/ton to 4360 yuan/ton, a 0.58% increase. The LPG market in South China rose across the board this week. Supply tightness and cost increase were the main supporting factors. For civil gas, terminals led the price increase. Due to delayed ship arrivals, some terminal inventories were low, and importers continuously raised prices. Refineries quickly followed suit. For industrial gas, the supply pressure of refineries was relieved, and the prices also increased [3]. 3.2.3 Shandong Region - The average price of the civil LPG market increased by 10 yuan/ton to 4460 yuan/ton, a 0.22% increase, and the average price of ether - post - carbon - four increased by 6 yuan/ton to 4281 yuan/ton. The civil LPG market in Shandong first remained stable and then rose, reaching a high in nearly two months. The increase in CP led to an obvious rise in import costs, driving up the price of related propane and slightly improving the profitability of downstream chemical plants [3]. 3.3 Price and Spread - Futures prices: The closing price of the main LPG futures contract increased by 28 yuan/ton to 4317 yuan/ton, a 0.65% increase; the settlement price increased by 19 yuan/ton to 4301 yuan/ton, a 0.44% increase. - Inter - month spreads: The spreads between different LPG contracts showed different changes, such as PG2601 - PG2602 being - 15 yuan/ton (down from 96 yuan/ton), and PG2601 - PG2603 being 229 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton). - Cross - variety spreads: For example, PG - 7.33*SC was 999.44 yuan/ton, a 0.50% decrease [3]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The production cost of PDH - made propylene was 6392 yuan/ton, a 0.06% decrease; the production cost of PDH - made PP was 7575.55 yuan/ton, a 0.79% increase. The production profit of PDH - made propylene was - 397 yuan/ton, a 0.25% decrease; the production profit of PDH - made PP was - 1252.22 yuan/ton, a 7.35% decrease [3]. 3.5 Other Information - Freight rates: Freight rates for different shipping routes remained unchanged. - Exchange - rate and interest - rate: The US dollar index decreased by 0.46%, and SHIBOR - overnight remained basically unchanged at 1.3020% [3].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for soda ash is experiencing a slight increase, with the main contract rising by 1.28% to 1183.00 CNY/ton, despite a generally weak demand environment and high inventory levels [1][2]. Supply Side - Soda ash enterprises are making minor adjustments to their operations, with little change in production levels and few upcoming maintenance plans. New production capacity is expected to come online, maintaining overall output at relatively high levels [2]. - Manufacturers are primarily focused on fulfilling previous orders, with new orders being limited. Although short-term inventory levels are decreasing, the absolute inventory remains high [2]. Demand Side - The demand for soda ash is weak, particularly in the float glass industry, which is facing a dual weakness in supply and demand. The recovery in demand is hindered by a lack of improvement in the real estate market, which is the main downstream sector for float glass [2]. - Additionally, the anticipated demand from the photovoltaic sector for dense soda ash has not materialized, further limiting overall demand growth [2]. Inventory Levels - As of December 1, 2025, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers in China is 1.5699 million tons, a decrease of 17,500 tons (1.10%) from the previous week. This includes 734,500 tons of light soda ash (down 6,100 tons) and 835,400 tons of dense soda ash (down 11,400 tons) [2]. Market Outlook - The futures market shows clear bottom characteristics, but there is a lack of new driving forces. The market is expected to experience strong oscillation around the bottom, with future trends requiring more catalysts to materialize. Key factors to monitor include soda ash production levels, product release schedules from Alashan, downstream purchasing rhythms, and trends in the macroeconomic and commodity markets [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side's production schedule has decreased and is near the historical average. The demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9025 - 9235 [3][5]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production schedule continues to decrease, and the overall demand shows a continuous decline. Cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 55555 - 57295 [7][8]. - The main logic of the market is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment. The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' shutdown and production - cut plans, while the main bearish factors are slow post - holiday demand recovery and strong supply but weak demand in downstream polysilicon [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 91,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 82,000 tons, a 2.50% increase from the previous week, showing an upward trend [5]. - Inventory: Polysilicon inventory is 281,000 tons (low), silicone inventory is 56,300 tons (low), and aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 74,600 tons (high). Social inventory increased by 0.36% to 550,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory increased by 1.01% to 179,600 tons, and main port inventory remained unchanged at 129,000 tons [5]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 2,874 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season [5]. - Basis: On November 28, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 220 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [5]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [5]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [5]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the output was 24,000 tons, a 11.43% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule in December is predicted to be 113,500 tons, a 0.95% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 12.02GW, a 5.94% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory increased by 4.16%. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is generally in a state of continuous decline [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,810 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,190 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On November 28, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 4,125 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 281,000 tons, a 3.69% increase from the previous week, at a historical low [8]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [8]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts showed an upward trend, with increases ranging from 0.16% to 0.71%. Spot prices of various types of silicon remained mostly unchanged [15]. - Inventory: Social inventory increased by 0.36%, sample enterprise inventory increased by 1.01%, and main port inventory remained unchanged [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures prices of most contracts showed an upward trend, with increases ranging from 2.15% to 3.05%. Spot prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly unchanged [17]. - Inventory: The weekly total inventory increased by 3.69% to 281,000 tons [17]. 3.3 Downstream Market Analysis 3.3.1 Organic Silicon - DMC: The daily capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 74.84%, higher than the historical average. The weekly output increased by 3.58% to 49,200 tons, and the monthly inventory increased by 2.18% to 56,300 tons [15][45]. - Downstream products: Prices of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 remained stable [47]. 3.3.2 Aluminum Alloy - Production: The monthly output of primary aluminum - based alloy ingots increased by 9.93% to 132,800 tons, and the monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42% to 645,000 tons [15]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.80% to 74,600 tons [15][16]. 3.3.3 Polysilicon - Industry cost: The cost showed a certain trend of change, with the average cost of the industry remaining stable at 38,810 yuan/ton [63]. - Silicon wafers: The weekly output decreased, and the inventory increased. The prices of various types of silicon wafers remained stable [17][69]. - Battery cells: The production and inventory of battery cells showed certain changes, and the prices of various types of battery cells remained mostly stable [17][72]. - Components: The monthly output decreased, and the domestic and European inventories decreased. The prices of various types of components remained stable [17][75].

Report Summary 1. Report Information - **Industry**: Eggs [1] - **Date**: November 24, 2025 [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot market for eggs weakened continuously this week and then stabilized. The egg prices in the two major producing regions of Hubei and Hunan, which led the previous rebound, have been falling since last week until mid - week. The red eggs in the north were relatively balanced in supply and demand but also weakened under the influence of the powder eggs. The national market prices stabilized on Friday, and market sentiment improved to some extent. [8] - In December, the demand for eggs will gradually enter the peak season with the expectation of double - holiday stocking. The decline in the price of culled chickens indicates that the culling rhythm is progressing orderly. The downside of egg prices should not be overly underestimated, while the upside space depends on market digestion and sales. The trend is unclear, and egg prices are expected to stabilize at a low level next week. [8] - In the futures market, the main contract fluctuated at a low level this week without a clear direction. The 01 contract fell below 3200 points, close to historical lows, attracting some bottom - fishing funds. However, compared with the end of 2016 and 2019, the current spot price is lower. From the perspective of basis, although it is close to the absolute price low, there are risks in going long. The futures market is expected to bottom out and wait for the spot price to rebound. [8] - The longer the egg price remains low in the fourth quarter, the greater the probability and elasticity of a reversal in the first quarter and second quarter of next year. [8] 3. Content Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Today, the national egg prices were stable. The average price in the main producing areas was 2.84 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from yesterday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.15 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 01 contract fell 0.75%. [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: In the options market, focus on the wide - straddle double - selling strategy for near - month contracts; in the spread market, conduct reverse spread rolling operations for near - and far - month spreads. [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: The current egg - laying hen inventory has slightly declined but remains at a historically high level for the same period. As of the end of October 2025, the national monthly inventory of egg - laying hens was about 1.359 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%, ending the previous continuous growth trend, but a year - on - year increase of 5.59% compared with October 2024. [9] - **Replenishment**: The momentum of replenishment continues to slow down. In October 2025, the monthly output of egg - laying chicks from sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly less than 39.2 million in September 2025 and significantly less than 44.83 million in the same period in 2024. From July to October 2025, the total replenishment was about 158.14 million, compared with about 176.1 million in the same period in 2024. [9][10] 3.3 Data Overview - **Culling Volume**: As of November 20, 2025, the national culling volumes in the previous three weeks were 19.81 million, 19.47 million, and 20.21 million respectively. The culling volume has fluctuated recently but has slightly increased overall compared with the previous period. [19] - **Culling Age**: As of November 20, 2025, the average culling age of hens was 492 days, one day earlier than last week and seven days earlier than last month, indicating an accelerated culling speed. [19]

Core Viewpoint - The PX market is experiencing a strong performance with futures prices rising, while the supply-demand dynamics indicate potential pressures in the medium term [1][2][3] Group 1: PX Market Performance - As of November 6, PX futures showed a strong upward trend, with the main contract increasing by 1.84% to 6740.0 yuan/ton [1] - The spot market for PX saw a narrowing of the monthly difference from +7 to +3, maintaining a strong floating level, with December negotiations around +7/+8 and January around +1/+3 [2] Group 2: Production and Capacity Utilization - PX production for the week was reported at 737,400 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.85% [2] - Domestic PX average capacity utilization rate stood at 87.93%, up by 1.6% from the previous week [2] Group 3: Price Trends and Market Outlook - On November 5, the closing prices for PX in Asia rose by $2/ton, with prices at $793-795/ton FOB Korea and $818-820/ton CFR China [2] - New Century Futures noted that while there is an expectation of improved supply-demand for PX, the overall pressure on PX prices remains due to the imbalance in the polyester industry chain [3] - Mai Ke Futures indicated that although PX profits may expand further, the current profit levels in the polyester chain are relatively high, limiting the upward potential for PX prices [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The EC futures market maintains a volatile trend. Spot freight rates are expected to gradually rise from November to December, and shipping companies are likely to continue to announce price increases. The market should focus on the implementation of these price increases. In terms of fundamentals, the shipping volume from November to December is expected to gradually improve, and attention should be paid to the impact of possible tariff improvements on the shipping rhythm. The shipping capacity from October to November remains relatively stable, with a slight increase in the average weekly shipping capacity in December. There are expectations of a reduction in port fees, and the progress of the cease - fire agreement in the Middle East is tortuous and has recently escalated. The China - US economic and trade consultations have basically reached a consensus, and attention should be paid to the impact of tariff relaxation on future shipping volume and rhythm [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contract Performance**: On October 30, 2025, the closing prices of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 decreased, with declines of - 1.45%, - 1.43%, - 1.55%, - 1.38%, - 2.22%, and - 0.63% respectively. The trading volumes of these contracts all decreased, with decreases of - 49.05%, - 47.43%, - 35.57%, - 38.06%, - 10.53%, and - 21.46% respectively. The positions of some contracts increased, while others decreased [4]. - **Monthly Spread Structure**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes. For example, the spread of EC12 - EC02 decreased by 4.2, and the spread of EC02 - EC08 increased by 10.8 [4]. 3.2 Container Freight Rates - **Weekly Container Freight Rates**: The SCFIS European line index was 1312.71 points, with a week - on - week increase of 15.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 40.54%. The SCFIS US West line index was 1107.32 points, with a week - on - week increase of 28.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 60.70%. Different routes of the SCFI index also showed different trends in price changes [4]. 3.3 Fuel Costs - The price of WTI crude oil near - month was $60.00 per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.56%. The price of Brent crude oil near - month was $64.3 per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.5% [4]. 3.4 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - **Market Analysis**: The China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur have basically reached a consensus. Some shipping companies have lowered their spot quotes, and the market is continuously gaming the subsequent freight rates. The EC futures market maintains a volatile trend. The spot freight rates of mainstream shipping companies have a large price difference, and the spot price center is expected to gradually rise. In terms of fundamentals, the demand from November to December is expected to improve, and the supply capacity in December will increase slightly. There are expectations of a reduction in port fees, and the Middle East geopolitical situation has escalated. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff relaxation on future shipping volume and rhythm [5][6]. - **Trading Strategies**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to maintain a volatile view and mainly wait and see in the short term. For arbitrage trading, it is recommended to wait and see [7]. 3.5 Industry News - Israel's military has started to re - implement the Gaza cease - fire agreement, while the Israeli Defense Forces will continue to take actions to eliminate any direct threats [8][9].