行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 11 月 24 日 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Core Viewpoint - The PX market is experiencing a strong performance with futures prices rising, while the supply-demand dynamics indicate potential pressures in the medium term [1][2][3] Group 1: PX Market Performance - As of November 6, PX futures showed a strong upward trend, with the main contract increasing by 1.84% to 6740.0 yuan/ton [1] - The spot market for PX saw a narrowing of the monthly difference from +7 to +3, maintaining a strong floating level, with December negotiations around +7/+8 and January around +1/+3 [2] Group 2: Production and Capacity Utilization - PX production for the week was reported at 737,400 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.85% [2] - Domestic PX average capacity utilization rate stood at 87.93%, up by 1.6% from the previous week [2] Group 3: Price Trends and Market Outlook - On November 5, the closing prices for PX in Asia rose by $2/ton, with prices at $793-795/ton FOB Korea and $818-820/ton CFR China [2] - New Century Futures noted that while there is an expectation of improved supply-demand for PX, the overall pressure on PX prices remains due to the imbalance in the polyester industry chain [3] - Mai Ke Futures indicated that although PX profits may expand further, the current profit levels in the polyester chain are relatively high, limiting the upward potential for PX prices [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The EC futures market maintains a volatile trend. Spot freight rates are expected to gradually rise from November to December, and shipping companies are likely to continue to announce price increases. The market should focus on the implementation of these price increases. In terms of fundamentals, the shipping volume from November to December is expected to gradually improve, and attention should be paid to the impact of possible tariff improvements on the shipping rhythm. The shipping capacity from October to November remains relatively stable, with a slight increase in the average weekly shipping capacity in December. There are expectations of a reduction in port fees, and the progress of the cease - fire agreement in the Middle East is tortuous and has recently escalated. The China - US economic and trade consultations have basically reached a consensus, and attention should be paid to the impact of tariff relaxation on future shipping volume and rhythm [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contract Performance**: On October 30, 2025, the closing prices of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 decreased, with declines of - 1.45%, - 1.43%, - 1.55%, - 1.38%, - 2.22%, and - 0.63% respectively. The trading volumes of these contracts all decreased, with decreases of - 49.05%, - 47.43%, - 35.57%, - 38.06%, - 10.53%, and - 21.46% respectively. The positions of some contracts increased, while others decreased [4]. - **Monthly Spread Structure**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes. For example, the spread of EC12 - EC02 decreased by 4.2, and the spread of EC02 - EC08 increased by 10.8 [4]. 3.2 Container Freight Rates - **Weekly Container Freight Rates**: The SCFIS European line index was 1312.71 points, with a week - on - week increase of 15.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 40.54%. The SCFIS US West line index was 1107.32 points, with a week - on - week increase of 28.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 60.70%. Different routes of the SCFI index also showed different trends in price changes [4]. 3.3 Fuel Costs - The price of WTI crude oil near - month was $60.00 per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.56%. The price of Brent crude oil near - month was $64.3 per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.5% [4]. 3.4 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - **Market Analysis**: The China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur have basically reached a consensus. Some shipping companies have lowered their spot quotes, and the market is continuously gaming the subsequent freight rates. The EC futures market maintains a volatile trend. The spot freight rates of mainstream shipping companies have a large price difference, and the spot price center is expected to gradually rise. In terms of fundamentals, the demand from November to December is expected to improve, and the supply capacity in December will increase slightly. There are expectations of a reduction in port fees, and the Middle East geopolitical situation has escalated. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff relaxation on future shipping volume and rhythm [5][6]. - **Trading Strategies**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to maintain a volatile view and mainly wait and see in the short term. For arbitrage trading, it is recommended to wait and see [7]. 3.5 Industry News - Israel's military has started to re - implement the Gaza cease - fire agreement, while the Israeli Defense Forces will continue to take actions to eliminate any direct threats [8][9].

Core Insights - The polysilicon price index this week is 52.36 yuan/kg, influenced by various market factors [1] - The production of polysilicon remains stable with a weekly output of 31,000 tons, while demand is expected to decrease in Q4 due to production cuts by wafer manufacturers [1] Supply and Demand - The N-type polysilicon re-investment material is priced between 50.1 - 55 yuan/kg, and granular silicon is priced at 50 - 51 yuan/kg [1] - The supply of polysilicon is expected to increase by 3,000 to 5,000 tons month-on-month in October, with the current weekly production at 31,000 tons [1] - Wafer manufacturers are maintaining normal production during the National Day holiday, leading to a tight balance in supply and demand for September and October [1] Inventory Levels - Polysilicon inventory has increased to 240,000 tons, reflecting a 6.2% month-on-month change, while silicon wafer inventory stands at 16.78 GW, with a 3.4% increase [1] Cost Structure - The overall cost for most companies remains around 45,000 yuan/ton, with some benefiting from lower electricity prices, bringing costs below 40,000 yuan/ton [1] Market Strategy - The industry is facing significant inventory pressure due to self-discipline in production cuts and weak consumer performance, making price transmission difficult [1] - The futures market is under pressure from the cancellation of November warehouse receipts and slow policy progress, with short-term price fluctuations expected between 47,000 - 52,000 yuan/ton [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The lithium carbonate futures market maintained a volatile trend this week. The main contract 2511 closed at 72,880 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 1.46% and a position volume of 248,640 tons. Spot prices changed little, and spot trading was average. When futures prices declined, it stimulated some point-price procurement demand [2]. - On the supply side, the weekly output of lithium carbonate increased slightly to 20,516 tons. Output from various sources such as spodumene, mica, salt lakes, and recycling all showed different degrees of change [2]. - On the consumption side, the output of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.08% month-on-month, while that of ternary materials, cobalt acid lithium, and manganese acid lithium increased. Downstream production was expected to increase, and the demand in the terminal power battery and energy storage markets supported the demand for lithium salts, but the actual replenishment was lower than expected [3]. - In terms of inventory, the total inventory decreased by 705 tons compared to last week. Inventory continued to transfer, with an increase in downstream replenishment inventory and a decrease in smelter inventory [3]. - In terms of profit, lithium ore prices fluctuated slightly, and overseas mines were reluctant to lower prices. Enterprises using externally purchased raw materials relied on futures hedging to balance profits and losses. Enterprises with their own ore sources and salt lake lithium extraction had significant cost advantages and relatively stable profit margins [3]. - The output of lithium hydroxide increased slightly this week. Due to high upstream spodumene prices and production line maintenance, the overall supply capacity of the lithium hydroxide market remained tight [4]. Strategy - The futures market maintained a volatile trend in the short term. There was some support from consumption, and the pre - National Day replenishment demand still existed. Although the disturbance in the ore sector weakened, it did not end completely. If mines resumed production and consumption weakened in the future, the market might be weak [5]. - For unilateral operations, short - term range trading was recommended. If the market rebounded significantly, selling hedging could be considered. There were no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The caustic soda market is currently under pressure from weak reality, with the Shandong 32% caustic soda spot price remaining under pressure. However, the optimistic expectations brought by future alumina production cannot be falsified in the short term. The market may show wide - range fluctuations due to the interweaving of long and short expectations [3] - The caustic soda futures market may experience low - level oscillations in the short term due to the pressure on near - month long - position takers. Before the alumina starts stocking for production, the market is still trading based on the weak reality [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On September 24, 2025, the 01 - contract futures price was 2535, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot in Shandong was 780, the Shandong 32% caustic soda spot converted to the futures price was 2438, and the basis was - 98 [1] Spot News - As of September 23, the low - concentration caustic soda market in Shandong was locally weak and stable. Under the resistance of high - price downstream buyers, some enterprises faced inventory pressure, and the key this week was for enterprises to reduce inventory in preparation for the holiday. Some downstream buyers started to plan for restocking as the current low prices were close to the cost line. High - concentration caustic soda rebounded temporarily due to short - term order support [2] Market Condition Analysis - The Shandong 32% caustic soda spot price is under pressure, but the short - term decline space may be limited due to the support of 50% caustic soda. The futures market may experience low - level oscillations due to the pressure on near - month long - position takers [3] - The high - output and high - inventory pattern of alumina has continuously compressed profits, and the marginal production capacity supply may be affected by profits in the future. Although there is a stocking demand for 5.6 million tons of new alumina production capacity in Guangxi from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, the low - profit situation may also lead to a decline in the stocking levels of other alumina plants [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, with the value range of trend intensity being an integer in the [-2, 2] interval [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has expanded the scope of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to include hundreds of derivative products, with a 50% tariff set to take effect on August 18, 2023 [1]. Group 1: Tariff Details - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced the addition of 407 product codes to the U.S. Harmonized Tariff Schedule, which will incur additional tariffs due to their steel and aluminum content [1]. - The expanded tariff list primarily includes intermediate and semi-finished products containing steel and aluminum, as well as metal structures, containers, and fasteners made from these materials [1]. Group 2: Impact on Exports - In 2024, China's steel export volume is projected to be 111 million tons, with only 470,000 tons directly exported to the U.S., accounting for 0.4% of total exports [2]. - The direct impact of the tariff policy on China's steel exports is expected to be minimal, but indirect exports may be affected due to a high proportion of steel being routed through third countries [2]. - China's steel exports to Vietnam, a significant intermediary for U.S. exports, are projected to be 12.76 million tons in 2024, with Vietnam exporting nearly 2 million tons to the U.S. [2]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The tariff policy may lead to a decline in China's steel exports, negatively impacting related products such as steel billets and plates [3]. - The policy could also significantly affect the export of steel-intensive products like construction machinery, home appliances, and new energy vehicles, which have a high demand for steel, particularly plates [3]. - An estimated 14.5 million tons of steel may be indirectly exported to the U.S. through steel derivatives in 2024 [3]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The futures market is expected to react negatively to the tariff policy, with a potential decline in steel prices due to increased inventory levels and weakening demand [4]. - The price spread between different steel products has widened, indicating market volatility, and the tariff policy is likely to have a more direct impact on plate exports [4]. - Despite the tariff policy, the domestic futures market is primarily influenced by macroeconomic and industrial policies, which may help mitigate the impact of the tariffs [4][5].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The pricing and demand for silicon manganese have shown an upward trend, with significant increases in both price and volume compared to the previous month [1][2]. Group 1: Pricing and Volume - Hebei Steel Group set the silicon manganese price at 6200 CNY/ton for August, up from 5850 CNY/ton in July, marking an increase of 350 CNY/ton [1]. - The procurement volume for silicon manganese in August reached 16100 tons, an increase of 1500 tons from July's 14600 tons [1]. Group 2: Supply and Inventory - The manganese ore shipment from Gabon fell to 154800 tons in the first week of August, while port manganese ore inventory slightly increased to 4.49 million tons, up by 10000 tons [1]. - The port manganese ore prices have stabilized at low levels, providing short-term support for alloy prices [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Outlook - Market sentiment remains mixed, with a cautious outlook on coal and coke performance, while the demand is expected to stabilize [2]. - The metallurgical coke prices are strong, but the support from manganese ore is considered weak, leading to a wait-and-see approach regarding production recovery [2].

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing a price increase in August, but downstream demand remains weak, leading to a cautious market outlook [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - On August 6, the SS futures market showed a stable and fluctuating trend, with prices maintaining above 12,900 yuan/ton [1] - The recent strength in SS futures has led to an increased bullish sentiment among traders, resulting in higher quotations [1] Group 2: Downstream Demand - Downstream end-users are showing low acceptance of high-priced materials, resulting in weak transaction volumes [1] - Some traders are required to offer discounts to stimulate sales due to the weak demand [1] Group 3: Production and Seasonal Factors - There is an expectation of increased stainless steel production, while the downstream market is currently in a consumption off-season [1] - The market's price increase momentum is limited due to the influence of futures market fluctuations and the prevailing cautious sentiment among downstream users [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The domestic LPG market is expected to continue its narrow - range oscillation. International LPG prices are weak, and an increase in warehouse receipts suppresses the market. Although domestic chemical demand is rising, weak combustion demand restricts price increases [1]. 3. Key Points by Relevant Information Price Changes - **Daily Changes (July 30)**: There was no change in South China and East China LPG prices, Shandong LPG decreased by 20 yuan, propane CFR South China dropped by 5 dollars, propane CIF Japan rose by 28 dollars, MB propane spot increased by 2 dollars, CP forecast contract price decreased by 2 dollars, Shandong ether - after carbon four rose by 100 yuan, Shandong alkylated oil increased by 50 yuan, paper import profit rose by 28 dollars, and the main basis weakened by 24 yuan [1]. - **PG Market**: The PG market oscillated. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4413 yuan/ton. The basis weakened to 370 (-63). The inter - month reverse spread continued to strengthen. Warehouse receipt registrations reached 9804 lots (+1000), with 1000 lots added by Qingdao Yunda [1]. - **Regional Spreads**: PG - CP reached 43 (+18), FEI - MB was 155 (-6), FEI - CP was 4.5 (+4.5), and FEI - MOPJ changed little at -47.5 (-3.75). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed, and the FEI propane discount continued to decline [1]. Market Conditions - **Supply and Demand**: The arrival volume decreased significantly. In South China, typhoons delayed vessel arrivals, leading to a decline in port inventories and a slight increase in factory inventories. The commodity volume decreased by 0.53%. Chemical demand was strong, with PDH operating rates rising significantly to 73.13% (+2.01 pct), and MTBE and alkylation operating rates also increasing [1]. - **Production Profits**: PDH profits improved, while MTBE export profits declined. FEI and CP - based PP production profits oscillated, with CP having a lower production cost than FEI [1]. Weekly Outlook - The domestic LPG market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations. Chemical demand is strong, but weak combustion demand will continue to suppress price increases [1].