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中金缪延亮:“有底无顶”的慢牛如何形成?——新秩序,新动能,新生态
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-18 23:41
Group 1 - The concept of "bottomless top" suggests that the market experiences a gradual upward trend with periodic highs and lows, which is characteristic of a slow bull market [3][75] - A-shares have shown a slow upward trend since September 2024, with the overall increase slope being the lowest compared to previous bull markets [4][76] - There are differing opinions among investors regarding the long-term outlook for A-shares, with some believing that recent reforms may lead to a sustained slow bull market, while others remain skeptical [3][75] Group 2 - The "bottomless top" slow bull market is crucial for enhancing China's international status, improving economic growth quality, and facilitating industrial upgrades [6][76] - Strengthening the renminbi's "functional anchor" is essential for establishing a strong financial nation, with a focus on improving the attractiveness and supply of renminbi assets [6][76] - A healthy capital market that provides sustainable returns through a slow bull market is key to attracting global capital allocation and reinforcing the renminbi's role [6][76] Group 3 - A-shares have historically struggled to establish a slow bull market due to frequent bull-bear cycles and high volatility, with only 51% of months showing gains compared to 66% for the S&P 500 [11][19] - The A-share market has experienced a higher frequency of significant monthly gains, indicating a tendency for rapid increases that can deplete future expectations [11][19] - The structural characteristics of China's economy, including reliance on capital formation and the real estate sector, contribute to the "pulse-like" nature of A-share earnings [19][20] Group 4 - Recent reforms, including the "New National Nine Articles," aim to address the imbalance in investment and financing, which has historically exacerbated market volatility [46][70] - The focus on improving dividend policies and enhancing regulatory oversight is expected to stabilize the market and increase the attractiveness of A-shares to long-term investors [47][70] - The gradual establishment of mechanisms for long-term capital entry into the A-share market is supported by policy initiatives and the current economic environment [54][55] Group 5 - The current economic transformation and the rise of new productive forces are expected to create a more sustainable growth model, reducing the reliance on high-leverage growth patterns [37][45] - The manufacturing sector's scale economy and the expansion of overseas operations are becoming significant growth drivers for Chinese companies [38][45] - The shift towards a more market-oriented and sustainable growth model is anticipated to enhance the stability and sustainability of earnings in the A-share market [45][72]