国内有机硅产能扩张周期已逐步落幕，2019-2024年，我国有机硅产能从151.5万吨增至344.0万吨， CAGR达17.8%，后续虽有新疆其亚、云南能投（002053）等新增产能规划在建，但具体落地层面的不 确定性或使实际投放有限，供给侧压力依然有望逐步缓解。行业产能集中度则持续提升，2025年CR4或 达54.7%，形成"一超多强"格局，为"反内卷"协同奠定基础。 2025年11月起，有机硅行业协同会议三连发，对减产规划和监督机制达成共识，带动有机硅价格从 11000元/吨低点迅速反弹至12月26日的13700元/吨。国投证券认为，本次协同减产若严格执行，不仅有 望加速对前期老旧产能的逐步汰换，同时有望使缺乏规模效应和原材料配套的边际小产能出于经济考量 主动退出，后续行业开工及产量水平或向更健康、更稳定的区间收敛，头部厂商或将受益于短期有机硅 价格提升和中长期供给格局结构性变革的双重提振。 国投证券发布研报称，2025年11月起，有机硅行业协同会议三连发，对减产规划和监督机制达成共识， 带动有机硅价格从11000元/吨低点迅速反弹至12月26日的13700元/吨。本次协同减产若严格执行，头部 厂商或将受 ...

Core Viewpoint - The organic silicon sector is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by price increases and regulatory measures aimed at stabilizing market competition [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 27, organic silicon stocks showed strong performance, with the overall sector rising over 3%, led by stocks like Chenguang New Materials and Hongbai New Materials hitting the daily limit [3]. - Key individual stock performances included Huasheng Lithium Battery rising over 15%, Jinyinhai increasing nearly 13%, and Yuanxiang New Materials up over 11% [3]. Group 2: Price Increases - Dow Chemical announced a price increase of 10% to 20% for its Xiameter product line effective December 10, indicating a positive shift in the global organic silicon market supply-demand relationship [3]. - As of November 21, organic silicon prices reached 13,100 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2,000 yuan/ton increase since the price stabilization efforts began [7]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is addressing issues of price disorder in the organic silicon industry, which may contribute to the recent price increases and market stability [4]. - A meeting held by the NDRC on November 24 focused on establishing standards to combat price competition issues, which is expected to support high-quality development in the sector [4]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - Analysts from Shenwan Hongyuan noted that a recent industry meeting emphasized voluntary carbon reduction, with companies planning to maintain a 70% operating rate starting December 1 [6]. - The supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve, with no significant new capacity additions anticipated, and existing capacity increasingly concentrated among leading firms [7][8]. - The apparent consumption of organic silicon intermediates is projected to grow by 20.9% in 2024, indicating robust demand in downstream applications [8].