新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-09 双硅同步大跌，供需问题仍存 工业硅： 市场分析 2026-01-08，工业硅期货价格震荡下跌，主力合约2605开于8940元/吨，最后收于8535元/吨，较前一日结算变化（405） 元/吨，变化（-4.53）%。截止收盘，2605主力合约持仓260531手，2026-01-07仓单总数为10799手，较前一日变化 112手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8800（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8800（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 SMM统计12月31日工业硅主要地区社会库存共55.7万吨，较上周变化0.36%。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13500-13700（0）元/吨。近日新疆石河子地区发布污染橙色警报，供应预 期收缩，短期供应压力减少支撑价格上行。有机硅企业周度产量环比变化有限。减排挺价背景下，有机硅单体企 业从12月初开始陆续降负减产 ...

供需宽松、成本定价 摘 要： 供给端：25年新疆地区产量占比提高，川滇地区开工总体偏低，内蒙和 甘肃新增产量释放平稳，但环比去年全国开炉数总体下行，社会库存高位运 行，硅企下半年生产利润转正，2026年全国工业新增计划投放产能仅为70万 吨，产能将进一步收缩。 证监许可【 2011 】1775 号 需求端：随着多晶硅新平台公司成立，将通过市场化+政策协同的方式构 建可持续的行业新生态，下游电池和组件市场产能规模将进一步压缩，光伏 终端装机将进入自适应减速期；有机硅行业主动减产控产将进入行业基本面 新平衡周期；铝合金受建筑建材类边际需求下滑拖累产量难有较大增长空间， 明年工业硅总体需求增速将延续放缓，但因供应端同步进入收缩周期，总体 供需结构将更趋于均衡。 夏磊 投资咨询证号： 从业资格号： 2026商品年度报告 工业硅 趋势展望：2026年产能过剩未根本缓解，库存高企压制价格，成本线构 成强支撑，供给侧政策为最大弹性来源。价格区间：7500-9700元/吨；政策 强刺激情景上移至8500-10500元/吨；需求超预期走弱情景下探7000-7500元/ 吨。节奏判断：枯水期+春节备货，价格偏强；丰水期供应放量+ ...

1月6日，国内华中地区有机硅装置降幅运行，华中地区有机硅DMC市场价格参考13700元/吨附近，具 体需实单详谈。 （文章来源：生意社） 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：陈平 生意社01月06日讯 生意社01月06日讯 1月6日，国内华中地区有机硅装置降幅运行，华中地区有机硅DMC市场价格参考13700元/吨附近，具 体需实单详谈。 （文章来源：生意社） 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：陈平 ...

生意社01月06日讯 生意社01月06日讯 1月6日，国内有机硅DMC市场暂稳整理运行，有机硅DMC市场价格参考13500-14000元/吨。 （文章来源：生意社） 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：陈平 1月6日，国内有机硅DMC市场暂稳整理运行，有机硅DMC市场价格参考13500-14000元/吨。 （文章来源：生意社） 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：陈平 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-31 供需双弱情况下，盘面区间震荡 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-12-30，工业硅期货价格震荡上涨，主力合约2605开于8705元/吨，最后收于8915元/吨，较前一日结算变化（95） 元/吨，变化（1.08）%。截止收盘，2605主力合约持仓216220手，2025-12-29仓单总数为10027手，较前一日变化 120手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8800（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8800（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 SMM统计12月18日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计55.3万吨，较上周变化-1.43%。其中社会普通仓库13.8万吨，较上 周增加0.2万吨，社会交割仓库41.5万吨(含未注册成仓单及现货库部分)较上周减少1万吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13500-13700（0）元/吨。SMM报道，多晶硅周度产量基本稳定，12月多 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall valuation of the industrial silicon industry is neutral, and there are structural opportunities in the low - valuation area [3][47] - The polysilicon industry is still policy - dominated, and its development is affected by policy implementation and dynamic adjustment [5] Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the industrial silicon industry featured "costs first decreasing then increasing, stable production growth, differentiated regional开工率, and prominent over - capacity". In 2026, the supply - demand balance will remain loose, with over - capacity as the core issue [1][3] - In 2025, the polysilicon industry was strongly affected by policies, showing characteristics of "ineffective pricing mechanism, production recovery in the second half of the year, and demand fluctuating with the photovoltaic industry chain". In 2026, it may show a situation of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: View Summary 1.1 Summary - **Industrial Silicon**: In 2025, costs first decreased due to lower raw material prices in the first half and then increased as coal prices rose in the second half. Production increased steadily, with开工率 showing regional and phased differences. Exports were weakly stable, with an estimated volume of 70 - 74 tons [1] - **Polysilicon**: In 2025, the pricing mechanism was ineffective. Production recovered in the second half, and demand was "high in the front and low in the back" affected by the "531 rush - to - install wave". After the anti - involution policy in June, profits rebounded, and the industry's production enthusiasm was boosted [2] 1.2 Future Outlook - **Industrial Silicon**: In 2026, the supply - demand balance will remain loose, with an expected supply growth rate of about 4.3% and a demand growth rate of about 5%. Attention should be paid to cost and price changes and the risk of short - term supply - demand mismatches [3] - **Polysilicon**: In 2026, it may show a "supply increase and demand decrease" situation, with a supply growth rate of about 3.7% and a demand growth rate of about - 10%. The profit transmission in the industrial chain is the key observation point, and policy implementation should be focused on [5] Chapter 2: Market Review 2.1 2025 Industrial Silicon Market Price Trend - **First Quarter**: The price declined due to weak supply - demand and pricing restructuring caused by the new delivery system. Supply increased, and demand was weak. Although there were short - term sentiment boosts, the overall supply - surplus situation remained [6] - **Second Quarter**: The price continued to decline due to high inventory, weak downstream demand, cost collapse expectations, and regional supply increases [7] - **Third and Fourth Quarters**: In the third quarter, the price rose due to the "anti - involution" sentiment, cost support, and downstream demand. In the fourth quarter, it was affected by the expected production cut in the polysilicon industry and profit - taking [7][8] 2.2 2025 Polysilicon Market Price Trend - **First Quarter**: The price fluctuated widely, driven by industry expectations and chain sentiment, with price increases at the beginning and drops after the Spring Festival [10] - **Second Quarter**: The price declined due to supply - demand deterioration, with a 14% drop in April. There were short - term rebounds but then continued to fall [11] - **Third Quarter**: The price rose significantly due to the "anti - involution" policy and market expectations [11] - **Fourth Quarter**: The price fluctuated in a range with a rising center, affected by policy expectations and supply - demand in the spot market [11] Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.1 Industrial Silicon - **Cost**: In 2025, costs decreased in the first half and increased in the second half, mainly due to raw material price changes [13] - **Supply**: Production increased steadily due to low start - stop costs and flexible production.开工率 was supported by cost collapse in the first half and profit recovery in the second half. Xinjiang had high开工率, and the Southwest had seasonal fluctuations [18][20] - **Import and Export**: Exports were affected by policies and overseas supply, and were expected to be weakly stable in 2026, with an estimated volume of 70 - 74 tons [23] - **New Capacity in 2026**: The industry was over - capacity, and the new planned capacity was about 45 tons, mainly integrated capacity [25] 3.2 Polysilicon - **Cost**: The cost was composed of electricity, silicon powder, and other auxiliary costs, and the market - based pricing mechanism was temporarily ineffective [27] - **Supply**: In 2025, production decreased in the first half and recovered in the second half after the anti - involution policy [29] - **Terminal Demand**: In 2025, demand was affected by the "531 rush - to - install wave", showing a "high - then - low" trend. In 2026, demand growth may be - 10% due to policy changes [31][5] - **Component Import and Export**: China's photovoltaic component exports were strong in 2025, with high volumes in the first half and a surge in the second half [33] - **Photovoltaic Power Generation**: In 2025, China's solar power generation reached 461.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 38.12%, providing key support for green - power supply [35] 3.3 Organosilicon - In 2025, the industry had high capacity, weak demand, and low开工率, with marginal improvement at the end of the year. In 2026, the supply - demand situation was uncertain [38] 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - In 2025, the domestic aluminum alloy industry had stable production growth, with a cumulative output of about 10.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 5.8%. In 2026, demand for industrial silicon was expected to continue to grow [40][41] Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 4.1 Valuation Feedback - **Industrial Silicon Profit**: Since May 2025, profits have increased due to lower hydropower costs and the "anti - involution" policy. The overall valuation is neutral, and attention should be paid to cost and price changes and enterprises with cost advantages or product - structure optimization capabilities [45][47] - **Polysilicon Profit**: Since June 2025, profits have rebounded rapidly, and the current profitability is good. Attention should be paid to profit transmission in the industrial chain [49][52] 4.2 Supply - Demand Outlook - **Industrial Silicon Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2026, the supply growth rate is expected to be about 4.3%, and the demand growth rate is about 5%. The over - capacity situation remains, and attention should be paid to production fluctuations caused by the hydropower season change [53] - **Polysilicon Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2026, the supply may increase by about 3.7%, and the demand may decrease by about 10%, with a slight supply - demand surplus [55]

市场分析 2025-12-29，工业硅期货价格偏弱运行，主力合约2605开于8850元/吨，最后收于8715元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-60） 元/吨，变化（-0.68）%。截止收盘，2605主力合约持仓221065手，2025-12-28仓单总数为9907手，较前一日变化 480手。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-30 价格区间震荡，去库进程缓慢 工业硅： 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8800（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8800（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 SMM统计12月25日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计55.5万吨，较上周增加0.2万吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13500-13700（0）元/吨。SMM报道，多晶硅周度产量基本稳定，12月多 晶硅预计排产在11.4万吨附近，环比11月微幅减少，对工业硅需求量变化有限。有机硅周度排产较上周小幅波动， 12月上旬单体厂陆 ...

工业硅周报 2025 年 12 月 29 日 供需边际转好，工业硅震荡向上 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 | 合约 | 12 月 19 日 | 12 月 12 日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力 | 8690.00 | 8390.00 | 300.00 | 3.58% | 元/吨 | | 通氧 553#现货 | 9200.00 | 9200.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 不通氧 553#现货 | 9200.00 | 9200.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 421#现货 | 9650.00 | 9650.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | ...

FESTING T 2025 年 12 月 28 日 26Q1 制冷剂长协继续上扬， 硅或再迎涨价,关注商业部 张景气 -《化工周报 25/12/22-25/12/26》 相关研究 《氨纶或迎格局重塑，欧盟对华轮胎反倾 销暂不采取措施，不改企业出海优势- 《化工周报 25/12/15-25/12/19》》 2025/12/21 证券分析师 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 赵文琪 A0230523060003 zhaowg@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 周超 A0230525090001 zhouchao@swsresearch.com 李绍程 A0230525070002 lisc@swsresearch.com 李彦宏 A0230125030002 liyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 马昕 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillating / Polysilicon: Oscillating [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the current production cut scale is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern, and it is expected to continue accumulating inventory in Q1 26 during the dry - season. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities after rebounds. For polysilicon, although there may be a situation of "high prices but low trading volume" from January to February, the peak - season expectation cannot be falsified, so it is more advisable to focus on long - buying opportunities at low prices [3][17][18] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2605 contract of industrial silicon increased by 190 yuan/ton week - on - week to 8880 yuan/ton. The SMM spot East China oxygen - blown 553 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9250 yuan/ton, while Xinjiang 99 decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8700 yuan/ton. The PS2605 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1290 yuan/ton to 58955 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of polysilicon N - type re - feedstock increased by 700 yuan/ton week - on - week to 53900 yuan/ton [10] 2. Intensified Production Cuts in Organic Silicon, Rising Prices of Silicon Wafers and Batteries Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated upward this week. Some large factories in Xinjiang increased production by 2 furnaces and some had 2 furnaces under maintenance, with the total unchanged. Inner Mongolia had 4 furnaces under maintenance, and Gansu increased production by 4 furnaces after previous maintenance. SMM industrial silicon social inventory increased by 0.2 million tons week - on - week, and sample factory inventory increased by 0.31 million tons. The industrial silicon market is in tight balance in December, but may accumulate inventory in Q1 next year if production cuts are not sustained. After the price increase, some large factories started hedging sales, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low. Attention should be paid to whether the polysilicon sector will cut production [12] Organic Silicon - The price of organic silicon remained stable this week. Some companies reduced production loads. The overall enterprise start - up rate was 68.33%, with a weekly output of 45200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.42%. The inventory was 44000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2%. With the supply contraction and inventory decline, the price may rise steadily after the pre - festival restocking demand is released [12][13] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward this week. After the establishment of the platform company, the spot price of polysilicon rose again. As of December 25, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 303,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons. The production schedule in January is not clear, but the shipment volume will be significantly reduced to 60,000 - 80,000 tons. There may be a situation of "high prices but low trading volume" from January to February, but the polysilicon spot is still considered bullish [14] Silicon Wafers - The price of silicon wafers strengthened significantly this week. The expected production volume in December is 45GW and may decline further in January. As of December 25, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 21.7GW, a week - on - week increase of 0.19GW. Four leading enterprises raised their quotes on the 25th. Attention should be paid to whether batteries and components can pass on the price [15] Battery Cells - The price of battery cells rose rapidly this week due to the rising silver paste price. As of December 22, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 10.06GW, a week - on - week increase of 0.62GW. Leading battery cell manufacturers raised their prices again, but the price increase of components was less than expected. If the price cannot be passed on, the start - up rate in January is expected to decline [15] Components - The price of components remained basically stable this week. Affected by the rising battery cell price, component enterprises raised their quotes. The domestic end - of - year installation demand ended, and overseas orders had no significant increase. Professional component factories will start reducing production in January, and the domestic production volume in January may fall below 30GW. As of December 15, the finished - product inventory of Chinese photovoltaic components was 31.7GW, a week - on - week increase of 0.5GW [16] 3. Investment Recommendations - For industrial silicon, although the market rumors and positive sentiment in the commodity market drove the price up, from the fundamental perspective, it is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities after rebounds. For polysilicon, it is recommended to focus on long - buying opportunities at low prices, but investors should hold positions carefully due to large price fluctuations and risk - control measures from the exchange [3][17][18] 4. Hot News Compilation - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the minimum opening order quantity, trading fee standard, and trading limit of polysilicon futures contracts. The Zhihui Photovoltaic adjusted the price limit range and trading margin standard of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures contracts during the New Year holiday in 2026 [19][20] 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - This part mainly includes various data charts of industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, such as the price, output, inventory, and profit data of each link, with specific data sources provided [21][30][34]