弱现实与政策预期博弈，多晶硅盘面震荡运行 工业硅： 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-26 市场分析 2025-08-25，工业硅期货盘面高开低走，主力合约2511开于8930元/吨，最后收于8675元/吨，较前一日结算变化（5） 元/吨，变化（0.06）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓289125手，2025-08-25仓单总数为50938手，较前一日变化-111 手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9500（100）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9700 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8700（150）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8700（200）元/吨。天津、西北、新疆、 上海地区部分硅价也上调。四川地区个别硅价下调。昆明、黄埔港地区硅价也暂稳。97硅价格同样持稳。 SMM统计8月21日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计54.3万吨，较上周环比减少0.2万吨。其中社会普通仓库11.7万吨， 较上周环比持平，社会交割仓库42.6万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货部分），较上周环比减少0.2万吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10500-110 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-22 基本面变化不大，工业硅多晶硅盘面宽幅震荡 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-08-21，工业硅期货价格偏强运行，主力合约2511开于8420元/吨，最后收于8635元/吨，较前一日结算变化（305） 元/吨，变化（3.66）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓283578手，2025-08-21仓单总数为51166手，较前一日变化 553手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9700 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8400-8600（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8400-8500（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价也暂稳。97硅价格同样持稳。。 SMM统计8月21日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计54.3万吨，较上周环比减少0.2万吨。其中社会普通仓库11.7万吨， 较上周环比持平，社会交割仓库42.6万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货部分），较上周环比减少0.2万吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10500-11500（0）元/吨。SMM报道，本周山东单体 ...

000元，可以考虑中长线逢低布局多单。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 8635 | 245 主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 283578 | 3710 -12 | | | 前20名净持仓(日,手) | -77137 | 14988 广期所仓单(日,手) | 50613 | | | | 9-10月工业硅价差 | -40 | -10 | | | | 现货市场 | 通氧553#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 9250 | 0 421#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 9600 | 0 | | | Si主力合约基差(日,元/吨 ...

Report Summary - **Report Date**: August 20, 2025 [1] - **Report Type**: Industrial Silicon Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat. Today, the price of industrial silicon continued to decline. During the wet season, the power cost is low, there are many production enterprises, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to fall to around 8,000 yuan. It is recommended to consider mid - to long - term long positions if the price later falls below 8,000 yuan [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 235 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 279,868 lots, a decrease of 6,737 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 92,125 lots, an increase of 5,455 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts were 50,625 lots, a decrease of 85 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon was - 30 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 860 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 324,700 tons, an increase of 19,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 25,770.18 tons, an increase of 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 75.05%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.669 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - On August 20, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized a photovoltaic industry symposium to standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry. The meeting on August 19 did not discuss the implementation details of "anti - involution" in each link, and the anti - involution rules for battery, component, silicon wafer, and polysilicon links are expected to be discussed in the next two days. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and promote a reasonable recovery of prices. In the industrial silicon sector, in the supply side, as the wet season deepens in the southwest region, the electricity price advantage becomes more prominent, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan is increasing, and the output in the southwest region is expected to increase next week. In Xinjiang, some large factories maintain a stable production rhythm, while some small and medium - sized silicon factories have low enthusiasm for resuming production due to thin profits, and the overall output remains relatively stable [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The three major downstream industries' total demand for industrial silicon remains flat. Today, the price of industrial silicon continued to decline. During the wet season, the power cost is low, there are many production enterprises, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to fall to around 8,000 yuan. If the price later falls below 8,000 yuan, it is recommended to consider mid - to long - term long positions [2]

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The commodity sentiment has cooled down, and the industrial silicon futures market may experience a short - term correction. The fundamentals of industrial silicon have changed little, but it may be affected by the sentiment of other commodities and decline. For polysilicon, the spot price is relatively stable, the futures are at a premium to the spot due to policy expectations, and the market may fluctuate widely in the short - term, suitable for long - term bottom - fishing [1][2][8] Group 3: Industry Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis**: On August 19, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a weak oscillation. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,615 yuan/ton and closed at 8,625 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton (-1.26%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 286,605 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on August 18 was 50,625 lots, a decrease of 85 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable, with some individual silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, and Shanghai areas decreasing, while those in the northwest, Xinjiang, and Sichuan regions remained unchanged [1] - **Supply Side**: According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. The price of 97 silicon also remained stable [1] - **Demand Side**: According to SMM statistics, the quotation of silicone DMC was 10,500 - 11,500 yuan/ton. Constrained by weak terminal demand, market transactions were still below expectations, and monomer factories offered discounts to reduce inventory, expected to maintain a weak oscillation pattern in the short - term [1] Polysilicon - **Market Analysis**: On August 19, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures oscillated widely, opening at 52,275 yuan/ton and closing at 52,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 137,977 lots (135,517 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 580,607 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased, with the latest polysilicon inventory at 24.20 (a month - on - month increase of 3.86%), silicon wafer inventory at 19.80GW (a month - on - month increase of 3.60%), weekly polysilicon output at 29,300 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.30%), and silicon wafer output at 12.10GW (a month - on - month increase of 0.67%) [4] - **Silicon Wafer**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.20 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.54 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.34 yuan/piece [4] - **Battery Chip**: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery chips was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery chips was about 0.28 yuan/W, Topcon M10 battery chips was about 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery chips was 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon 210RN battery chips was 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - slice battery was 0.37 yuan/W [5] - **Component**: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W. On August 18, the bidding for the second batch of photovoltaic component procurement for China Resources Power's 2025 photovoltaic projects opened, with a total procurement capacity of 3GW in three bid sections [6] Group 4: Policy Information - On August 19, multiple departments jointly held a photovoltaic industry symposium, requiring the photovoltaic industry to strengthen industrial regulation, curb low - price disorderly competition, standardize product quality, and support industry self - regulation to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the industry [7] Group 5: Strategy Suggestions Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Neutral - **Inter - delivery**: None - **Inter - variety**: None - **Futures - cash**: None - **Options**: None [2] Polysilicon - **Unilateral**: Short - term range trading, suitable for long - term bottom - fishing - **Inter - delivery**: None - **Inter - variety**: None - **Futures - cash**: None - **Options**: None [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - For industrial silicon, no specific investment rating is provided [1][2][3] - For polysilicon, the unilateral rating is neutral, and no ratings are given for other aspects [5][6] Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the spot price remains stable, the inventory decreases slightly, and the fundamentals change little. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment [1][3] - For polysilicon, the spot price is stable, but the inventory increases. The market is affected by anti - involution policies, and it is suitable to lay out long positions at low prices in the medium - to - long term [5][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On August 14, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8605 yuan/ton and closed at 8675 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton (-1.14%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract was 279,035 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,693 lots, down 8 lots from the previous day [1] - The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9300 - 9500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9600 - 9900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8700 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8700 - 8900 yuan/ton [1] - The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on August 14 was 545,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week. The inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 117,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 428,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons [1] Consumption End - The price of organic silicon DMC was 11200 - 12300 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton. The main price of DMC of domestic monomer enterprises this week was about 12,000 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton from last week. The price decline was due to the approaching end of undelivered orders and poor new order reception [2] Strategy - Since the spot price remains stable and the inventory decreases slightly, the fundamentals change little. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On August 14, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures declined, opening at 51,385 yuan/ton and closing at 50,430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.08% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 127,757 lots, and the trading volume was 415,544 lots [5] - The polysilicon spot price remained stable. The price of N - type material was 45.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 yuan/kg [5] - The polysilicon factory inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The polysilicon inventory was 242,000 tons, a 3.86% increase, and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.80GW, a 3.60% increase. The weekly polysilicon output was 29,300 tons, a 0.30% decrease, and the silicon wafer output was 12.10GW, a 0.67% increase [5] Strategy - Recently, the quotation of polysilicon factories to crystal - pulling factories has remained unchanged. As it is approaching the end of the order - signing period, the market trading is limited. The prices of downstream batteries and silicon wafers have declined slightly, and the spot market sentiment has loosened. The futures market is greatly affected by anti - involution policies. In the medium - to - long term, it is suitable to lay out long positions at low prices [8] Other Products - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.20 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.54 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.34 yuan/piece [7] - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 was about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 was about 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon G12 was 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon210RN was 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [7] - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat. Today, the price of industrial silicon has started to decline because downstream demand is insufficient to support the upward movement of the futures market. In the short - term, the fundamentals of industrial silicon are expected to improve, but the long - term futures price is still not attractive enough. However, some funds have started to make early arrangements. If the decline in polysilicon eases later, short - term long positions can be considered on dips. Operationally, if the price later drops below 8000 yuan, medium - to long - term long positions can be considered on dips [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8675 yuan/ton, a increase of 75 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 279,035 lots, a decrease of 5465 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 92,101 lots, an increase of 2466 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts were 50,693 lots, a decrease of 8 lots; the price spread between September and October industrial silicon was - 5 yuan, an increase of 30 yuan [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract was 725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan; the DMC spot price was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly production of industrial silicon was 305,200 tons, an increase of 5500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 20,300 yuan/ton; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 25,770.18 tons, an increase of 1590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 74.84%, an increase of 4.76 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.669 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] Industry News - On August 13, it was reported that in Jiangxi, non - fossil energy has developed rapidly, with the new - energy installed capacity increasing by 1.6 times compared to the end of 2020. Wind and photovoltaic installed capacity has exceeded thermal power and become one of the main power sources in Jiangxi. The number of county - level regions connected to long - distance natural gas pipelines has increased by 42 compared to 2020, basically achieving full coverage of 100 counties (cities, districts). In the industrial silicon sector, on the supply side, as the wet season deepens in the southwest region, the electricity - price advantage becomes more prominent, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places continues to rise, and it is expected that the output in the southwest region will increase week - on - week next week. In Xinjiang, although some large factories maintain a stable production rhythm, some small and medium - sized silicon plants have low profit margins due to the previous low prices, and their enthusiasm for resuming production is not high, so the overall output remains relatively stable [2] Viewpoint Summary - In the organic silicon segment, the market demand for organic silicon has recovered and grown, and the operating rate has increased slightly, driving the demand for industrial silicon to some extent. In the polysilicon segment, the operating rate of the polysilicon industry remains at a high level. With the continuous favorable policies for the photovoltaic industry, the downstream installation demand is still expected, providing strong rigid - demand support for industrial silicon. However, the polysilicon price has shown a slight downward trend recently, and enterprises under cost pressure have a demand to lower the purchase price of industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy segment, enterprises mostly replenish inventory as needed, the inventory continues to grow, the price is declining, and it is in a passive de - stocking stage, so it is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon have changed little, with both supply and demand increasing and a slight reduction in inventory. However, there is significant over - capacity and high inventory pressure. The short - term industrial silicon futures market is expected to fluctuate widely following commodities such as coking coal and polysilicon. For polysilicon, short - term downstream product prices are under pressure, and there is a large inventory accumulation pressure. The short - term market may maintain wide fluctuations, but it is suitable for long - term low - level layout [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On August 13, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price declined. The main contract 2511 opened at 8800 yuan/ton and closed at 8600 yuan/ton, a change of - 305 yuan/ton (- 3.43%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 284,500 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,701 lots, a change of 43 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable [1]. - In August, the number of open furnaces increased in both the southwest and northwest regions. The consumption side saw a significant increase in polysilicon production, while silicone, aluminum alloy, and exports were relatively stable. There was an overall slight reduction in inventory, but the total inventory in the industry was still high, about 940,000 tons, equivalent to about 3 months of consumption [2]. - **Strategy** - The short - term industrial silicon futures market is expected to fluctuate widely following commodities such as coking coal and polysilicon. It is recommended to operate within a range for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On August 13, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures declined, closing at 51,290 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.11% from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 132,463 lots, and the trading volume was 395,645 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased, while the weekly production of polysilicon and silicon wafers also increased [4]. - **Strategy** - In the short term, the polysilicon market is under pressure, and the market may maintain wide fluctuations. It is recommended to operate within a range for single - side trading. In the long term, it is suitable to layout long positions at low levels. There are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6][8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term fundamentals of industrial silicon are expected to improve, but the long - term futures price is still not attractive enough. It is recommended to consider medium - to - long - term long positions on dips if the price later falls below 8,000 yuan [3][4]. - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries remains flat [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract is 8,600 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan; the position of the main contract is 284,500 lots, an increase of 5,640 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 94,567 lots, a decrease of 4,841 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 50,658 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon is - 20 yuan, an increase of 10 yuan [3]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 800 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan; the DMC spot price is 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - **Upstream Situation**: The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [3]. - **Downstream Situation**: The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons, an increase of 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 74.84%, an increase of 4.76 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.669 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [3]. 3.2 Industry News - On August 12, the Lithium Industry Branch of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association issued an initiative to relevant enterprises in the lithium industry chain to strengthen upstream - downstream cooperation and maintain industrial security, and resist disorderly competition, market monopoly, and false publicity [3]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association is soliciting opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law (Exposure Draft)" [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: In Southwest China, with the deepening of the wet season, the electricity price advantage is more prominent, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan continues to increase, and the output in Southwest China is expected to increase next week. In Xinjiang, although some large factories maintain a stable production rhythm, some small and medium - sized silicon plants have low enthusiasm for resuming production due to thin profits, and the overall output remains relatively stable [3]. - **Demand Side**: - **Organic Silicon**: The market demand for organic silicon has recovered and grown, and the operating rate has increased slightly, which drives the demand for industrial silicon to some extent [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The operating rate of the polysilicon industry remains at a high level. With the continuous favorable policies for the photovoltaic industry, the downstream installation demand is still expected, which strongly supports the rigid demand for industrial silicon. However, the polysilicon price has shown a slight downward trend recently, and enterprises under cost pressure have a demand to lower the purchase price of industrial silicon [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed. The inventory continues to increase, the price drops, and it is in a passive inventory reduction stage, which is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon [3].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the spot price remains stable, and the futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment, with short - term expectations of wide - range fluctuations. For the long - term, no clear view is given [1][2]. - For polysilicon, the spot trading is average, and the quotation is relatively stable. In August, the supply side has a large increase, and the downstream production schedule has a slight increase. The market is greatly affected by the anti - involution policy, with large short - term fluctuations and expectations of wide - range shocks. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [3][6]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On August 12, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 9050 yuan/ton and closed at 8840 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton (- 1.12%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 278,860 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,658 lots, a decrease of 102 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9300 - 9500 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9600 - 9900 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon and 99 silicon increased by 100 yuan/ton to 8700 - 8900 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained stable, and the price of 97 silicon also remained stable [1]. - **Demand Side**: The price of silicone DMC was 11500 - 12500 yuan/ton. Recently, the silicone price has weakened. The main reason is the lack of downstream orders, so downstream enterprises mainly consume inventory, with low willingness to purchase new products and a significant decline in new order volume [1]. Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On August 12, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 52800 yuan/ton and closed at 51800 yuan/ton, a change of 0.69% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 136,055 lots (139,739 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 481,809 lots [3]. - **Supply Side**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 45.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The polysilicon inventory was 23.30 (a month - on - month change of 1.75%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.11GW (a month - on - month change of 5.29%). The weekly polysilicon output was 29,400 tons (a month - on - month change of 10.94%), and the silicon wafer output was 12.02GW (a month - on - month change of 9.27%) [3]. - **Demand Side**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.20 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.55 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.35 yuan/piece. The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was 0.29 yuan/W (a decrease of 0.01 yuan/W), Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells was 0.37 yuan/W. The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W. Anhui Jiaokong Resources Co., Ltd. issued a tender announcement for 120.28MW photovoltaic components for a highway EPC project, with an estimated contract value of 85 million yuan and a unit price of 0.71 yuan/W [3][5]. Strategy Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Range trading [2]. - **Inter - delivery**: None [2]. - **Inter - commodity**: None [2]. - **Futures - cash**: None [2]. - **Options**: None [2]. Polysilicon - **Unilateral**: Short - term range trading; medium - to - long - term buying on dips [6]. - **Inter - delivery**: None [6]. - **Inter - commodity**: None [6]. - **Futures - cash**: None [6]. - **Options**: None [6].