| 业期現日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【2011 1292号 2025 4 TIE 27 E | | | | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 11月25日 | 11月24日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | a500 | a500 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | 540 | 560 | -20 | -3.57% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 9750 | 9750 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | -10 | 10 | -20 | -200.00% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8900 | 8900 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | 740 | 760 | -20 | -2.63% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 11月25日 | 11月24日 | 消费 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 251 ...

明日主题前瞻 1、有机硅 | 11月25日，陶氏化学向大中华区合作伙伴发布公告称，其消费品解决方案有机硅业务线（Xiameter）将于12月10日起（或按合同约定日期），对 旗下Xiameter业务线中主要产品实施10-20%的价格上调，涨幅将根据不同产品线有所差异。据了解，该部门包含了二甲基硅油、D4、线性体、生胶、乙烯 基硅油、107胶、大桶胶等产品，此次的调价将根据不同产品线有所差异。 点评：证券时报指出，过去两周国内有机硅行业陆续召开会议共同探讨有机硅行业发展，会议针对有机硅价格机制、行业联动减产机制和未来发展方向进行 了讨论。由于会议针对有机硅存在挺价及减产预期，近期有机硅价格显著上涨，对应盈利能力得以改善。截至11月24日，有机硅DMC华东市场价为13200 元/吨，本月涨幅达20.00%。 2、DRAM | 据TrendForce集邦咨询最新调查显示，2025年第三季由于一般型DRAM（conventionalDRAM）合约价上涨、出货量季增，且HBM出货规模扩 张，推升DRAM产业营收较前一季成长30.9%，达414亿美元。展望第四季，随着原厂库存普遍见底，出货位元季增幅将明显收敛。预估第四季 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-26 供需两端均有减弱，多晶硅盘面宽幅震荡 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-11-25，工业硅期货价格震荡运行，主力合约2601开于8940元/吨，最后收于8960元/吨，较前一日结算变化（10） 元/吨，变化（0.11）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓263919手，2025-11-25仓单总数为40714手，较前一日变化-810 手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9400-9600（0）元/吨；421#硅在9600-9900 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8800-9000（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8800-9000（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 国家能源局发布1-10月份全国电力工业统计数据。截至10月底，全国累计发电装机容量37.5亿千瓦，同比增长17.3%。 其中，太阳能发电装机容量11.4亿千瓦，同比增长43.8%；风电装机容量5.9亿千瓦，同比增长21.4%。2025年前十 个月，光伏新增总计253GW。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13100-1 ...

[Table_IndNameRptType] 基础化工 行业周报 有机硅行业至高减产 30%，XRG 收购科思创交易获德国批准 [Table_IndRank] 行业评级：增持 报告日期： 2025-11-26 [Table_Chart] 行业指数与沪深 300 走势比较 -27% -14% 0% 14% 27% 41% 2/24 5/24 8/24 11/24 2/25 5/25 8/25 11/25 基础化工 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：王强峰 分析师：潘宁馨 执业证书号：S0010524070002 电话：13816562460 邮箱：pannx@hazq.com [Table_Report] 相关报告 1.印度对华 BIS 认证撤销，有机硅 DMC 价格涨幅居前 20251114 2.天然气制绿氨首获 ISCC PLUS 认证，三季 度轮胎盈利普遍回暖 20251107 3.510 亿元央企新兴产业发展基金启航，六 氟磷酸锂价格涨势不止 20251031 4.2026 年化肥、原油进口配额总量公布，地 缘催化油价震荡走强 20251024 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary ...

上海证券近日发布基础化工行业周报：过去一周（11.15-11.21），基础化工指数涨跌幅为-7.47%，沪深 300指数涨跌幅为-3.77%，基础化工板块跑输沪深300指数3.70个百分点，涨跌幅居于所有板块第29位。 基础化工子行业涨跌幅靠前的有：橡胶助剂（3.34%）、钾肥（-3.30%）、炭黑（-3.97%）、膜材料 （-4.30%）、合成树脂（-5.60%）。 以下为研究报告摘要： 市场行情走势 过去一周（11.15-11.21），基础化工指数涨跌幅为-7.47%，沪深300指数涨跌幅为-3.77%，基础化工板 块跑输沪深300指数3.70个百分点，涨跌幅居于所有板块第29位。基础化工子行业涨跌幅靠前的有：橡 胶助剂（3.34%）、钾肥（-3.30%）、炭黑（-3.97%）、膜材料（-4.30%）、合成树脂（-5.60%）。 周涨幅排名前五的产品分别为盐酸（江苏）（33.33%）、国际硫磺（13.41%）、碳酸锂（电池级） （7.59%）、碳酸锂（工业级）（7.47%）、甲基环硅氧烷（DMC）（5.60%）。周跌幅前五的产品分 别为：液氯（-98.00%）、盐酸（山东）（-41.67%）、浓硝酸（金禾 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-25 市场分析 2025-11-24，工业硅期货价格震荡运行，主力合约2601开于8940元/吨，最后收于8940元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-90） 元/吨，变化（-1.00）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓262676手，2025-11-24仓单总数为41524手，较前一日变化 -854手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9400-9600（-50）元/吨；421#硅在9600-9900 （-50）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8800-9000（-100）元/吨，99硅价格在8800-9000（-100）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、 西北、天津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价小幅回落，97硅价格回落。 根据SMM报道，海关数据显示，出口方面：2025年10月工业硅出口量在4.51万吨，环比大幅减少36%同比减少31%。 2025年1-10月份工业硅累计出口量在60.67万吨，同比减少1%。进口方面：2025年1-10月累计进口量在0.86万吨， 同比减少67%。10月份工业硅出口环比大幅减少，主要受到出口政策端影响，部分出口订单抢在9月份发货 ...

Market Performance - The basic chemical index increased by 2.61% from November 8 to November 14, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which decreased by 1.08%, by 3.69 percentage points [1][2] - The top-performing sub-industries in the basic chemical sector included spandex (7.69%), fluorochemicals (7.55%), polyester (5.21%), other chemical raw materials (4.80%), and soda ash (4.56%) [1][2] Chemical Price Trends - The top five products with the highest weekly price increases were sulfuric acid (15.45%), R134a (13.21%), liquid ammonia (10.64%), coal tar (10.23%), and sulfur (8.96%) [3] - The top five products with the largest weekly price declines included liquid chlorine (-50.00%), international butadiene (-7.91%), hydrochloric acid (Shandong) (-7.69%), CPP (composite film) (-4.65%), and vinyl acetate (-3.91%) [3] Industry Developments - The silicone industry is undergoing self-regulation, with a meeting held on November 12 where mainstream manufacturers in Shandong raised their prices to 12,500 yuan/ton, with expectations of a 30% production cut discussed in a follow-up meeting on November 18 [4] - R134a prices have been adjusted upwards, with major manufacturers in East and South China raising their prices to 60,000 yuan/ton, reflecting strong market expectations for downstream applications such as automotive air conditioning and data center cooling [4] Investment Recommendations - Current investment focus includes the refrigerant sector, with recommendations for companies like Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. [5] - The fiber sector is also highlighted, with suggested companies including Huafeng Chemical, Xin Fengming, and Taihe New Materials [5] - Other recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Luxi Chemical, and Baofeng Energy [5] - The tire sector includes recommendations for Sailun Tire, Senqilin, and Linglong Tire [5] - The agricultural chemical sector suggests companies like Yara International, Salt Lake Co., Xingfa Group, Yuntianhua, and Yangnong Chemical [5] - High-quality growth stocks to watch include Bluestar Technology, Shengquan Group, and Shandong Heda [5] Industry Rating - The basic chemical industry maintains an "overweight" rating [6]

国投安信期货指出，工业硅期货减仓回落。现货端价格小幅上调100元/吨，下游有机硅DMC价格较昨 日持稳13100元/吨（SMM）。有机硅行业基于"反内卷"，12月拟推进联合减排计划，预计影响工业硅需 求约4000吨（对应DMC减产8000吨），较前期30%的下调预期更审慎。整体而言，短期工业硅呈技术 性回调，在下游多晶硅、有机硅定价修复预期下，仍有望提振价格重心。 南华期货（603093）表示，综合供需格局与技术面分析，工业硅价格下方支撑力度较强，下行空间相对 有限，建议投资者把握逢低布局机会，重点关注远月多单配置价值。 11月21日，国内期市有色金属板块全线飘绿。其中，工业硅期货主力合约开盘报9085.0元/吨，今日盘中 低位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，工业硅主力最高触及9145.0元，下方探低8950.0元，跌幅达2.17%。 目前来看，工业硅行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于工业硅后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 国泰君安期货分析称，供需层面来看，工业硅基本面并无突发利好驱动，当前基本面逐步改善，近期持 续性的仓单流出带来价格运行区间抬升，但供需双弱的预期并无法支撑价格持续性破位上行。盘面 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the spot price has a slight increase, and after the production reduction in Southwest China during the dry - season, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and inventory accumulation slows down. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies pushing for capacity exit, the futures price may rise. - For polysilicon, both supply and demand have weakened, with large inventory pressure and average consumption performance. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and it is expected to fluctuate mainly [2][7]. 3. Summary by Topic Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On November 20, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price dropped. The main contract 2601 opened at 9365 yuan/ton and closed at 9075 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.37% from the previous settlement. The 2511 main contract held 273978 positions, and the number of warehouse receipts was 43297, a decrease of 115 from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Market**: The industrial silicon spot price increased. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9500 - 9600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 9900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8900 - 9100 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8900 - 9100 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 54.8 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons from last week. The social general warehouse inventory was 12.9 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons, and the social delivery warehouse inventory was 41.9 tons, unchanged from last week [1]. - **Export and Import**: In October 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 4.51 tons, a sharp decrease of 36% month - on - month and 31% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume was 60.67 tons, a decrease of 1% year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to October 2025 was 0.86 tons, a decrease of 67% year - on - year [2]. - **Consumption**: The price of silicone DMC continued to rise, with the current market quotation ranging from 13000 to 13200 yuan/ton, an increase of about 850 yuan/ton or 6.9% from last week's average price. In October 2025, the export volume of primary polysiloxanes from China was 4.1 tons, a decrease of 13.5% month - on - month and 5.7% year - on - year [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term range operation, and for dry - season contracts, buy on dips [2]. Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On November 20, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2601 fluctuated weakly. It opened at 54500 yuan/ton and closed at 52450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous trading day. The main contract held 134292 positions, and the trading volume was 304835 [5]. - **Spot Market**: The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg [5]. - **Inventory and Production**: Polysilicon factory inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 27.10, a change of 1.50% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.72GW, a change of 1.63% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon production was 27100.00 tons, a change of 1.11% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer production was 12.78GW, a change of - 2.59% month - on - month [5]. - **Silicon Wafer, Battery, and Component Prices**: Silicon wafer prices fell due to poor order demand. The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.26 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.60 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.27 yuan/piece. The prices of various types of battery cells and components remained stable [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 48,000 and 55,000 yuan/ton [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The long - term upward trend of industrial silicon remains intact despite a recent decline, and it is expected to continue rising with a narrowing amplitude [2]. - On the supply side, as the southwest region enters the dry season, electricity prices are expected to rise significantly, and some industrial silicon enterprises in Yunnan and Sichuan have planned to cut production, leading to a contraction in supply next week [2]. - On the demand side, the organic silicon industry's demand for industrial silicon is mainly for rigid procurement, and the increase in organic silicon prices may lead to an increase in industrial silicon demand; the demand for polysilicon is stabilizing, but the profitability of polysilicon enterprises is compressed, reducing their acceptance of industrial silicon prices; the demand for aluminum alloy has limited pulling effect on industrial silicon [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 9075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 315 yuan; the position of the main contract was 273,978 lots, a decrease of 32,691 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 86,614 lots, a decrease of 13,858 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE were 43,297 lots, a decrease of 115 lots; the basis of the December - January industrial silicon contract closing price was 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9550 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 9800 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 475 yuan/ton, an increase of 415 yuan; the spot price of DMC was 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 2410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 402,800 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 1939.85 tons, an increase of 602.27 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 70,232.72 tons, a decrease of 6409.29 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 21,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.5 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.95 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, a decrease of 5568.37 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 72.18%, an increase of 2.92 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.776 million tons, an increase of 141,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, a decrease of 5568.37 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On November 12th, Luxi Chemical (000830.SZ) led an organic silicon industry meeting, aiming to cut the industry's operating rate by 30% starting in early December and raise the price of organic silicon DMC to 13,500 yuan/ton within half a month [2].