每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 截至13:40，石化ETF（159731）涨0.19%，持仓股华鲁恒升、扬农化工、万华化学、恒力石化涨幅 居前。从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF（159731）近20个交易日资金净流入总计10.95亿元。石化ETF 最新份额达17.52亿份，最新规模18.74亿元。 消息面上，2025年国内有机硅DMC行业无新增产能落地，叠加海外产能持续出清，供给端增速正 式见顶。需求侧，新能源汽车、光伏等新兴领域需求维持高速增长态势，叠加出口量同比提升，行业供 需格局显著改善。在此背景下，行业头部企业牵头召开行业发展研讨会，就有机硅产品达成动态定价机 制与减产协议，推动行业盈利进入修复周期。 华安证券认为，2026年化工行业景气度受周期与成长双轮驱动、共振向上。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is upgraded to "Overweight" [3] Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to experience a recovery driven by both cyclical and growth factors, with a focus on organic silicon, PTA, polyester filament, caprolactam, spandex, vitamins, sweeteners, refrigerants, and phosphorus chemicals [7] - The organic silicon industry is entering a recovery phase, with new applications becoming the core growth driver. From 2019 to 2024, domestic DMC capacity expanded rapidly, leading to temporary oversupply and declining prices. However, with no new capacity expected in 2025 and increasing demand from sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics, the supply-demand balance is improving [7] - The PTA and polyester filament industries are approaching a turning point, with the expansion cycle nearing its end. The demand side is expected to continue growing, supported by easing trade tensions and improved external demand [7] - The introduction of quota policies is expected to lead refrigerants into a high prosperity cycle, with supply constraints and stable demand growth from markets like heat pumps and cold chain logistics [9] - The synthetic biology sector is poised for explosive growth, driven by the transition to low-energy products and breakthroughs in non-grain bio-based materials [9] - OLED technology is accelerating its penetration into various display sizes, supported by policy measures aimed at fostering the new display industry [10] - The demand for high-frequency and low-loss electronic resins is increasing due to the rise of AI infrastructure, with AI server shipments expected to grow significantly [11] - The electronic chemicals sector is benefiting from the expansion of wafer production capacity, with increasing demand for key materials like photoresists and packaging materials [12] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 14th with a weekly change of 0.78%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.38 percentage points [6][21] - Key stocks such as Honghe Technology and Zhongcai Technology saw significant price increases due to rising demand in AI servers and high-speed network equipment [6] Supply-Side Tracking - A total of 155 companies in the chemical industry had their production capacities affected, with 4 new repairs and 7 restarts reported [14] Key Industry Dynamics - BlueStar announced the acquisition of Elkem's core organic silicon assets, marking a strategic move to enhance its position in the global organic silicon industry [34] - The first biofuel blending policy in China was approved, allowing for local blending and reducing reliance on imports [34]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The supply side has significantly shrunk, providing obvious price support, but high polysilicon inventories suppress demand, and prices lack upward momentum. The upward potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction progress, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production - cut expectations [1][2]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to oscillate. Although the supply side has shrunk significantly in February, providing support for prices, the demand side remains weak due to downstream cost constraints, and the large - scale inventory reduction is slow, suppressing price increases. There is currently no obvious driving force for the "rush to export" phenomenon before April, and the market awaits the supply - demand game [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On February 11, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated downward. The main contract 2605 opened at 8420 yuan/ton and closed at 8370 yuan/ton, a change of (-40) yuan/ton or (-0.48)% from the previous settlement. The main contract 2605 held 303387 positions at the close, and the number of warehouse receipts on February 10, 2026, was 18117, a change of 1368 from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices remained stable. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9400 (0) yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 (0) yuan/ton [1]. - As of February 5, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 56.2 tons, a 1.44% increase from the previous week [1]. - The demand for industrial silicon continued to be sluggish. The pre - holiday stocking was nearing the end, there were few new orders, polysilicon manufacturers cut production, and the market mainly focused on inventory reduction [1]. - Large manufacturers have plans to cut production and stop work in February, and with the approaching Spring Festival holiday, the supply is expected to shrink [1]. Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. Short - term range operation is recommended for single - side trading. No strategies are provided for inter - period, cross - variety, and spot - futures trading, or options [2]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On February 11, 2026, the main futures contract 2605 of polysilicon oscillated upward, opening at 48125 yuan/ton and closing at 49180 yuan/ton, a 0.34% change from the previous trading day. The main contract held 38313 positions (38617 the previous day), and the trading volume was 4793 [2]. - Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. N - type material was priced at 48.50 - 58.80 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [2]. - Polysilicon manufacturer inventories and silicon wafer inventories increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 34.10, with a 2.40% month - on - month change, and silicon wafer inventory was 28.32GW, a 3.77% month - on - month change. The weekly polysilicon output was 20100.00 tons, a (-0.50)% month - on - month change, and silicon wafer output was 10.38GW, a (-11.66)% month - on - month change [2]. Strategy - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to oscillate. Short - term range operation is recommended for single - side trading, and the main contract is expected to maintain a slight oscillation in the short term. No strategies are provided for inter - period, cross - variety, and spot - futures trading, or options [2][4][5]. Other Products - In the silicon wafer market, domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were priced at 1.13 (-0.05) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm at 1.43 (-0.05) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers at 1.23 (-0.05) yuan/piece [3]. - In the battery cell market, the prices of various types of battery cells remained stable, such as the efficient PERC182 battery cell at 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W [3][4]. - In the component market, the mainstream transaction prices of various components remained stable, such as PERC182mm at 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W [4]. - Two photovoltaic cell renovation projects in Hefei, Anhui, with a total investment of 34,637 million yuan, were publicly announced for environmental assessment [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range - bound fluctuation. The supply side has significantly shrunk, providing obvious price support, but the high inventory of polysilicon suppresses demand, and the price lacks upward momentum. The upward potential depends on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory clearance progress, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [1][2] - The price of polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate. Although the supply side has shrunk significantly in February, providing support for prices, the demand side remains weak due to downstream cost constraints. The large - scale inventory is being cleared slowly, suppressing price increases. There is no obvious driving force for the "rush to export" phenomenon before April, and we need to wait for the supply - demand game [3][5] 3. Summary by Related Categories Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On February 10, 2026, the futures price of industrial silicon fluctuated and fell. The main contract 2605 opened at 8430 yuan/ton and closed at 8375 yuan/ton, a change of (- 130) yuan/ton or (- 1.53)% from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 was 303387 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on February 9, 2026, was 18117 lots, a change of 1368 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9400 (0) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 (0) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 8600 - 8800 (0) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8600 - 8800 (0) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1] - As of February 5, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 56.2 tons, an increase of 1.44% from the previous week [1] - The demand for industrial silicon continued to be weak. The pre - holiday stocking was nearing the end, there were no new orders, large polysilicon manufacturers cut production, and the market was mainly focused on inventory clearance [1] - Large manufacturers have plans to cut production and stop work in February, and with the Spring Festival approaching, the supply is expected to shrink [1] Strategy - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range - bound fluctuation. Short - term range operation is recommended for unilateral trading, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, and options trading [2] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On February 10, 2026, the main futures contract 2605 of polysilicon fluctuated and fell, opening at 48815 yuan/ton and closing at 48950 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.23% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 38617 (38347 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on the day was 3991 lots [2] - The spot price of polysilicon increased slightly. According to SMM statistics, N - type material was 48.50 - 58.80 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [3] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 34.10, with a month - on - month change of 2.40%, and the silicon wafer inventory was 28.32GW, with a month - on - month change of 3.77%. The weekly production of polysilicon was 20100.00 tons, with a month - on - month change of - 0.50%, and the silicon wafer production was 10.38GW, with a month - on - month change of - 11.66% [3] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery chips, and components remained stable. There were no quotes and transactions for mainstream polysilicon products this week. Market sentiment was more cautious than last week, new orders were completely stagnant, and only a few companies had small - scale exploratory inquiries. Downstream companies were mainly digesting existing inventories, and the purchasing willingness was extremely low [3][4] Strategy - The price of polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate. Short - term range operation is recommended for unilateral trading, and the main contract is expected to maintain a slight fluctuation in the short term. There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, and options trading [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon prices are expected to remain range - bound. Supply has significantly contracted, providing price support, but high polysilicon inventory suppresses demand, and prices lack upward momentum. The upside depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory clearance, while the downside is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [1][2] - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Supply has shrunk in February, supporting prices, but downstream cost pressure has led to weak demand. High inventory is being cleared slowly, suppressing price increases. Before April, the "rush to export" phenomenon has no obvious driving force, and the market is waiting for the supply - demand game [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On February 9, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,515 yuan/ton and closed at 8,450 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton (-0.82%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 at the close was 277,011 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on February 8, 2026, was 16,737 lots, an increase of 564 lots from the previous day [1] - Industrial silicon spot prices fell slightly. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,400 yuan/ton (-50 yuan/ton), 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton (unchanged). Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1] - As of February 5, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 562,000 tons, a 1.44% increase from the previous week [1] - The demand for industrial silicon continued to slump. The pre - holiday stocking was nearing the end, there were no new orders, major polysilicon manufacturers cut production, supply shrank, and the market mainly focused on inventory reduction [1] - In February, large manufacturers had plans to cut production and shut down, and with the Spring Festival approaching, supply was expected to decrease [1] Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to remain range - bound. Short - term range trading is recommended. There is no strategy for cross - period, cross - variety, and options trading [2] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On February 9, 2026, the main polysilicon futures contract 2605 fluctuated and rose. It opened at 49,500 yuan/ton and closed at 49,370 yuan/ton, a - 0.17% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 38,347 lots (37,934 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 4,706 lots [2] - Polysilicon spot prices rose slightly. According to SMM statistics, N - type material was 48.50 - 58.80 yuan/kg (+0.05 yuan/kg), and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg (unchanged) [3] - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 341,000 tons, a 2.40% change from the previous period, and silicon wafer inventory was 28.32 GW, a 3.77% change. The weekly polysilicon production was 20,100 tons, a - 0.50% change, and silicon wafer production was 10.38 GW, a - 11.66% change [3] - In terms of silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.18 yuan/piece (-0.05 yuan/piece), N - type 210mm was 1.48 yuan/piece (-0.03 yuan/piece), and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.28 yuan/piece (-0.03 yuan/piece) [3] - In terms of battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W (unchanged), PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W (unchanged), Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.44 yuan/W (unchanged), Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.44 yuan/W (unchanged), Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.44 yuan/W (unchanged), and HJT210 half - cell batteries were 0.37 yuan/W (unchanged) [3][4] - In terms of components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W (unchanged), PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W (unchanged), N - type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 yuan/W (unchanged), and N - type 210mm was 0.75 - 0.77 yuan/W (unchanged) [4] Strategy - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Short - term range trading is recommended, and the main contract is expected to maintain a slight fluctuation in the short term. There is no strategy for cross - period, cross - variety, and options trading [5]

Group 1: Report Overview - Title: "Industrial Silicon: Inventory Accumulation, Monitor Warehouse Receipts; Polysilicon: Monitor Spot Transactions After the Festival" - Date: February 10, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Investment Ratings and Trend Intensities - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 0 (neutral) - Polysilicon trend intensity: 0 (neutral) [4] Group 3: Core Views - For industrial silicon, pay attention to inventory accumulation and warehouse receipt situations - For polysilicon, focus on spot transactions after the festival - The "China Photovoltaic Industry Development Roadmap (2025 - 2026)" predicts that China's new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2026 will be between 180GW and 240GW, a decline from 2025, and will return to an upward trend after 2027. The average annual new photovoltaic installed capacity during the 15th Five - Year Plan period is expected to be between 238GW and 287GW [1][2][4] Group 4: Fundamental Data Summary Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2605 closing price: 8,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from T - 1, 345 yuan from T - 5, and 85 yuan from T - 22 - Si2605 trading volume: 200,100 lots, down 135,319 lots from T - 1, 266,625 lots from T - 5, and 466,015 lots from T - 22 - Si2605 open interest: 294,910 lots, up 17,899 lots from T - 1, 58,597 lots from T - 5, and 34,379 lots from T - 22 - PS2605 closing price: 49,370 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan from T - 1 and 2,320 yuan from T - 5 - PS2605 trading volume: 4,706 lots, down 5,977 lots from T - 1 and 13,083 lots from T - 5 - PS2605 open interest: 38,347 lots, up 413 lots from T - 1, down 1,931 lots from T - 5 [2] Basis and Price - Industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530): + 850 yuan/ton, up from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 - Industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si4210): + 400 yuan/ton, with changes from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 - Industrial silicon spot premium (against Xinjiang 99 silicon): + 250 yuan/ton, with changes from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 - Polysilicon spot premium (against N - type recycled feedstock): + 4380 yuan/ton, with changes from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 - Xinjiang 99 silicon price: 8700 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 - Yunnan Si4210 price: 10000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 - Polysilicon - N - type recycled feedstock price: 53650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from T - 1, 2350 yuan from T - 5, and down 1850 yuan from T - 22 [2] Profit - Silicon plant profit (Xinjiang new standard 553): - 2681.5 yuan/ton, down from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 - Silicon plant profit (Yunnan new standard 553): - 5874 yuan/ton, down from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 - Polysilicon enterprise profit: 9.2 yuan/kg, up 0.5 yuan from T - 1, 0.6 yuan from T - 5, and down 1.0 yuan from T - 22 - DMC enterprise profit: 1980 yuan/ton, up 0 yuan from T - 1, 75 yuan from T - 5, and 368 yuan from T - 22 - Recycled aluminum enterprise profit: 250 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan from T - 1, up 100 yuan from T - 5, and 550 yuan from T - 22 [2] Inventory - Industrial silicon - social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory): 56.2 tons, up 0.8 tons from T - 5 and 1 ton from T - 22 - Industrial silicon - enterprise inventory (sample enterprises): 20.6 tons, down 0.30 tons from T - 5 and up 0.4 tons from T - 22 - Industrial silicon - industry inventory (social inventory + enterprise inventory): 76.8 tons, up 0.50 tons from T - 5 and 1.36 tons from T - 22 - Industrial silicon - futures warehouse receipt inventory: 8.4 tons, up 0.3 tons from T - 1, 0.9 tons from T - 5, and 3.0 tons from T - 22 - Polysilicon - manufacturer inventory: 34.1 tons, up 0.8 tons from T - 5 and 3.9 tons from T - 22 [2] Raw Material Costs - Silicon ore: Xinjiang 320 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan 230 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 and T - 5, down 20 yuan from T - 22 - Washed coking coal: Xinjiang 1475 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged - Petroleum coke: Maoming coke 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yangtze coke 1740 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan from T - 5 and T - 22 - Electrodes: Graphite electrode 12450 yuan/ton, unchanged; Carbon electrode 7200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Photovoltaic and Related Products - Silicon powder (99 silicon): 9850 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 and T - 5, up 50 yuan from T - 22 - Silicon wafer (N - type - 210mm): 1.48 yuan/piece, down 0.02 yuan from T - 1, 0.05 yuan from T - 5, and 0.20 yuan from T - 22 - Battery cell (TOPCon - 210mm): 0.44 yuan/watt, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and down 0.83 yuan from T - 22 - Module (N - type - 210mm, centralized): 0.738 yuan/watt, unchanged from T - 1, up 0.002 yuan from T - 5, and 0.038 yuan from T - 22 - Photovoltaic glass (3.2mm): 17.5 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and down 0.5 yuan from T - 22 - Photovoltaic - grade EVA price: 9000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 and T - 5, up 299 yuan from T - 22 [2] Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy - DMC price: 13900 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and up 300 yuan from T - 22 - ADC12 price: 23650 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan from T - 1, down 200 yuan from T - 5, and 50 yuan from T - 22 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market has seen a significant rebound from oversold conditions, while the pattern of weak supply and demand persists. The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation, and the polysilicon price is also predicted to remain volatile [1][3][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On February 3, 2026, the futures price of industrial silicon fluctuated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,825 yuan/ton and closed at 8,815 yuan/ton, a change of -55 yuan/ton (-0.62%) from the previous day's settlement. As of the close, the position of the main contract 2605 was 234,800 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on February 2, 2026, was 14,855 lots, a change of 912 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,300 - 9,400 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton; the price of Xinjiang oxygenated 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest China, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained unchanged, and the price of 97 silicon was stable. The total social inventory of industrial silicon in the main regions on January 29 was 554,000 tons, a decrease of 0.36% from the previous week [1] Supply and Demand - Supply side: There are expectations of production cuts and shutdowns for industrial silicon in February. During the Spring Festival and the traditional off-season, the supply side shows a contraction trend [2] - Demand side: The demand side of industrial silicon is sluggish. The cancellation of the export tax - rebate policy for photovoltaic value - added tax has led to an expected short - term increase in polysilicon demand, but the demand - side transmission of industrial silicon is blocked due to inventory accumulation. In February, large polysilicon manufacturers cut production, and the supply shrank. There are expectations of production cuts in the organic silicon sector, the operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises has slightly decreased, and the downstream demand for aluminum alloys shows a marginal weakening trend. It is expected that the subsequent operating rate will be mainly stable with a weakening tendency [2] Strategy - In the short term, due to the interweaving of long and short factors, the price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. With the reduction of both supply and demand, combined with the price increase transmission effects of coal prices and the photovoltaic industry chain, price support is obvious. The upward height depends on the recovery of downstream demand and the progress of inventory reduction, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production cut expectations. The recommended strategy is short - term range - bound operation [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On February 3, 2026, the main futures contract 2605 of polysilicon fluctuated and rose. It opened at 47,200 yuan/ton and closed at 50,000 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 6.61% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 38,411 lots (40,278 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 18,297 lots [3] - The spot price of polysilicon increased slightly. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 48.00 - 59.00 yuan/kg (an increase of 2.20 yuan/kg), and the price of n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg (an increase of 1.00 yuan/kg). The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics show that the polysilicon inventory was 33.30 tons, a month - on - month change of 0.90%, the silicon wafer inventory was 27.29 GW, a month - on - month change of 1.90%, the weekly polysilicon output was 20,200.00 tons, a month - on - month change of -1.46%, and the silicon wafer output was 11.75 GW, a month - on - month change of 8.20% [3] Strategy - The polysilicon price is expected to maintain a volatile trend. In February, many polysilicon enterprises have clearly planned to stop production, and the supply shows a contraction trend. Recently, the sharp drop in silver prices has alleviated the downstream cost pressure, and the demand has improved marginally. After the polysilicon enterprises were interviewed, the expectation of coordinated price support has failed, and the overall market is moving towards cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with the downstream production capacity accelerating the clearance. In the short term, attention should be paid to the new quotes of silicon wafers and the "rush to export" situation brought about by the cancellation of photovoltaic tax rebates; in the long term, attention should be paid to the recovery of the demand side and the progress of inventory reduction. The recommended strategy is short - term range - bound operation, and the main contract is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term [6] Product Prices - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers is 1.23 yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210mm is 1.53 yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers is 1.33 yuan/piece [4] - **Battery Cells**: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells is 0.27 yuan/W; the price of PERC210 battery cells is about 0.28 yuan/W; the price of TopconM10 battery cells is about 0.44 yuan/W; the price of Topcon G12 battery cells is 0.44 yuan/W; the price of Topcon210RN battery cells is 0.44 yuan/W. The price of HJT210 half - piece battery cells is 0.37 yuan/W [4][5] - **Components**: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm is 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of PERC210mm is 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of N - type 182mm is 0.73 - 0.74 yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of N - type 210mm is 0.75 - 0.77 yuan/W [5]

Core Viewpoint - Industrial silicon prices are experiencing fluctuations with a slight downward trend, while polysilicon prices are showing signs of recovery due to supply constraints and demand expectations [2][5][18]. Supply Side - As of February 3, 2026, industrial silicon futures opened at 8825 CNY/ton and closed at 8815 CNY/ton, a decrease of 55 CNY/ton or 0.62% from the previous day [2]. - The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was reported at 554,000 tons, a decrease of 0.36% from the previous week [13]. - Current prices for various grades of silicon in East China are stable, with 553 silicon priced at 9300-9400 CNY/ton and 421 silicon at 9500-9800 CNY/ton [2][13]. Demand Side - The recent cancellation of the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products has led to short-term expectations of increased demand for polysilicon, although accumulated inventory is hindering the transmission of demand for industrial silicon [3][13]. - The operating rate of aluminum-silicon alloy enterprises is expected to decline slightly due to anticipated reductions in organic silicon production, indicating weakening downstream demand [3][14]. Price Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation due to mixed factors, with support from rising coal prices and the photovoltaic industry chain [4][15]. - The upward potential of prices will depend on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory reduction, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [4][15]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On February 3, 2026, polysilicon futures opened at 47200 CNY/ton and closed at 50000 CNY/ton, reflecting a 6.61% increase from the previous trading day [5][16]. - The inventory of polysilicon has increased to 33.30 thousand tons, with a week-on-week change of 0.90%, while silicon wafer inventory stands at 27.29 GW, up 1.90% [5][16]. - The weekly production of polysilicon is reported at 20200 tons, showing a decrease of 1.46% [5][16]. Battery and Component Pricing - Prices for high-efficiency PERC182 battery cells are around 0.27 CNY/W, while PERC210 cells are priced at approximately 0.28 CNY/W [6][17]. - The mainstream transaction prices for PERC182mm and PERC210mm components range from 0.67 to 0.74 CNY/W and 0.69 to 0.73 CNY/W, respectively [6][17]. Future Strategy - The polysilicon market is expected to remain volatile, with several companies planning production cuts in February, indicating a tightening supply trend [18]. - Short-term focus will be on new silicon wafer pricing and the impact of the cancellation of the photovoltaic export tax rebate, while medium-term attention will be on demand recovery and inventory reduction [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation. The price is clearly supported by the rising prices of coal and the photovoltaic industry chain under the situation of double reduction in supply and demand. The upward potential depends on the recovery of downstream demand and the progress of inventory reduction, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [3]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to remain volatile. In February, many polysilicon enterprises have a clear plan to stop production, and the supply tends to shrink. Recently, the sharp drop in silver prices has alleviated the downstream cost pressure, and the demand has improved marginally. After the polysilicon enterprises were interviewed, the expectation of coordinated price support failed, and the overall market is moving towards cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with the downstream production capacity accelerating to clear out [6]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On February 2, 2026, the futures price of industrial silicon oscillated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,880 yuan/ton and closed at 8,795 yuan/ton, a change of (-105) yuan/ton or (-1.18)% compared with the previous day's settlement. As of the close, the position of the main contract 2605 was 236,313 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on February 1, 2026, was 13,943 lots, a change of 288 lots compared with the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in East China was 9,300 - 9,400 (100) yuan/ton; the price of 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 (0) yuan/ton; the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton; and the price of 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, the Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained unchanged, and the price of 97 silicon remained stable [1]. - According to SMM statistics, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on January 29 was 554,000 tons, a decrease of 0.36% compared with the previous week [1]. - The supply side of industrial silicon is expected to have production cuts and shutdowns in February. During the Spring Festival and the traditional off - season, the supply side tends to shrink [2]. - On the demand side, the demand for polysilicon is expected to increase in the short term due to the cancellation of the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic value - added tax. However, the demand for industrial silicon is sluggish due to inventory accumulation and production cuts by large polysilicon manufacturers in February. The organic silicon industry has a production cut expectation, and the operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises has slightly decreased. The downstream demand for aluminum alloys shows a marginal weakening trend, and the operating rate is expected to be mainly stable with a slight weakening in the future [2]. Polysilicon - On February 2, 2026, the main futures contract 2605 of polysilicon oscillated and declined, opening at 47,250 yuan/ton and closing at 47,050 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of - 1.66% compared with the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 40,278 (42,513 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on that day was 17,789 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 47.60 - 55.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 47.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [3]. - According to SMM statistics, the inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics show that the polysilicon inventory was 333,000 tons, with a month - on - month change of 0.90%, the silicon wafer inventory was 27.29GW, with a month - on - month change of 1.90%, the weekly output of polysilicon was 20,200.00 tons, with a month - on - month change of - 1.46%, and the silicon wafer output was 11.75GW, with a month - on - month change of 8.20% [3]. Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - Silicon wafers: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.23 (0.00) yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers was 1.53 (0.00) yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.33 (0.00) yuan/piece [4]. - Battery cells: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of TopconM10 battery cells was about 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; and the price of HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [4][5]. - Components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of PERC210mm components was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of N - type 182mm components was 0.73 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of N - type 210mm components was 0.75 - 0.77 (0.00) yuan/W [5]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation. - No strategies for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, cash - and - carry, or options [3]. Polysilicon - The price of polysilicon is expected to remain volatile. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to remain volatile in the short term. - No strategies for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, cash - and - carry, or options [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The chemical sector is experiencing a dual drive of cyclical recovery and growth, with a focus on organic silicon, PTA, polyester filament, caprolactam, spandex, vitamins, sweeteners, refrigerants, and phosphorus chemicals [5][6] - The organic silicon industry is entering a recovery phase, with new applications becoming the core growth engine. From 2019 to 2024, domestic DMC capacity is rapidly expanding, leading to temporary oversupply and continuous price declines. However, by 2025, no new capacity is expected, and demand from emerging sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics is maintaining high growth [5][6] - The PTA and polyester filament industry is moving towards a new prosperity cycle as the capacity expansion phase is nearing its end, with new capacity mainly concentrated in leading enterprises [6] - The refrigerant market is entering a high prosperity cycle due to quota policies and stable demand growth from the heat pump and cold chain markets [7] - The synthetic biology sector is expected to see explosive demand growth as fossil-based materials face disruptive challenges, with a focus on energy-efficient products [8] - OLED technology is accelerating its penetration into larger displays, supported by government policies promoting the new display industry [9] - The demand for electronic chemicals is increasing due to the rapid development of the semiconductor industry, particularly in China, where the market is heavily reliant on imports [11] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 12th with a decline of 0.86% during the week of January 26 to January 30, 2026 [20] - The top three performing sectors were oil and petrochemicals (7.95%), communications (5.83%), and coal (3.68%) [20] Key Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is promoting the mercury-free transformation of the PVC industry, focusing on the development of mercury-free catalysts [36] - Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to increased oil prices, with WTI crude averaging $61.33 per barrel, up 2.39% from the previous week [36]